Juwan Moye

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Chances are we hear this offseason how our “2nd unit is as good as our 1st unit” or some similar garbage that leads to a platoon system to start the year again. I do like the Goode pickup, think he fills a real need from a roster construction perspective, I’ll just still lack confidence that any shooter will be utilized correctly until Woodson proves he can adapt accordingly. My expectation is that Goode comes in and sits in the corner for 80%+ of plays and hopes to get the ball, similar to how we used Kopp.

Or just basic science. It’s not our coaches job to get guys shots, the best coach in the business said so.

The high watermark for Woody so far is 17.7. So let’s say we go crazy and take 20% more threes from that high, we’re still only at 21.2 or so. Last year was 15.5/game. I just don’t see a world where we increase that by ~50%. But for the sake of winning, and aesthetically pleasing basketball, I’d love to have AH1971 be right here. :)

Mayo Clinic (tried a handshake emoji but it’s not allowed)

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average 22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

Cool, believing that is fine. Hell, I’ll do you one better: I HOPE you’re right. But the probabilities aren’t on our side here so all of the things you believe will happen to turn us into a top-15 offensive unit CAN happen, it’s just unlikely that they do. If we can agree there then I’m more than happy. :)

So what sort of volume are you expecting? We took 15.5/game last year. I haven't done the math but I'm 99% sure that it still wont add up. 35% from three isnt a good number, thats average. For context, all 3 of Baylors starting guards were over 42% last season. THATS shooting.

The poster in question said “I’ll bet anything Reneau’s production stagnates if not dips with a better back court. He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway”. Which is at best a straw man as there’s zero evidence to support that Malik will “be playing out more on the perimeter”. You make a separate point which is “he’ll take more 3 point shots” which, may be the case, but given this whole discussion started from a proclamation that IU will have a top-15 offense, none of it really matters towards that. But more importantly: Fire Mike Woodson

Reading Twitter it looks like the player in question is Luke Goode. No clue if the rumor has any truth to it, it’s just what’s out there.

People like making up stuff, or building straw men, to support what they WANT to happen versus what history has shown us is more likely to happen.

I’m not ignoring anything, you need to go back and read the discussion if you lack context. The point is that we’re somehow going to be a top-15 offense because we’re going to take more threes. Which the data of the last 3 years doesn’t come close to supporting. So if you think we’ll magically be a team taking even an average number of threes next year then the one lacking common sense would not be me. And to refute your basic point even though it was off the mark: Kopp shot 44%+ his senior year, so a Kopp three was a VERY efficient shot that we didn’t prioritize. I assume because it’s not our coach’s job to get guys shots.

Going back and re reading his point was simply that IU will not have a top-15 offense this year and he was refuting some questionable points brought up by another poster to try and defend the top-15 prediction. The finer points here don’t matter much to that discussion IMO. You could assume growth in 3pt% and 2pt% and we’re still not a top-15 offense unless those numbers are SUBSTANTIALLY better than last year.

I’ll go on record and say that, regardless of personnel, we’ll be in the bottom half of the country in three point attempts. The issue isn’t players here, it’s system. Go and look at the JHS/TJD/Kopp team and explain to me why Kopp averaged 4.1 3PA per game. The answer isn’t a lack of playmakers, or thar Kopp couldn’t shoot. 3PA rankings each year under Woodson: 2021- 321st (17.7/g) 2022- 352nd (15.5/g) 2023- 355th (15.5/g)

Death, taxes, and Malik on the bench with his third foul.

I believe he’s quoting points per game, which is flawed, but here’s a screenshot. I’d trust KenPom more which had us at 105th.

This is why his “it doesn’t matter who starts it matter who finishes” type lines frustrates me as a fan. It ABSOLUTELY matters who starts, that’s how you set the tone for a game. Too often we come out listless, especially against bad teams, and allow them to get confidence that they can compete. Punch them in the mouth from the start and take any wind they may have out of their sails. Be relentless about the pursuit of excellence in all things at all times if the goal is actually a national championship.

My expectation? Top third of the new B1G with the chance to over perform if a reliable shooter or two emerges outside of Mgbako. I’d also suggest, given the dollar investment in coach and players, if this isn’t a team that’s at least fringe top-25 for most of the year, and at least a 7 seed in the tournament, then CMW should be gone barring a Sweet 16 run. So this is apparently me hoping CMW is back because it means we had a level of success that we actually get to cheer for again.

Valid points but I also think that if Vegas had a line on where our offense will end up this year it’d be closer to the 30s-40s than top-15. Personally, while offense is fun, I’m more excited to see improvements on the defensive end. And in particular, defending the three point line.

Last year’s offense was ranked 105th in the country. We will need A LOT to go really right to be a top-15 offense. CMWs highest ranked offense so far was 28th and that was with JHS and TJD.

Yep, which is the talent vs fit argument.

I expect Ballo to be an upgrade early in the season over what Ware was early last year but late in the season it’s even if not worse because Ware really came into his own at the end of the year AND his game compliments Reneau better. Agreed on the shooting concerns as well. Crimson colored glasses fans act like everyone progresses as a shooter each year but they can go backwards as well. The optimist in me hopes that better guard play can make it that come true but it’s far from a guarantee.

This is my worry again this year. Early season, we squeak by some KenPom 300+ team because we give up 10+ threes, and it feels like deja vu. Some fans try to convince us the Army and Florida Gulf Coast are underrated and the analytics are flawed. But in reality, we’re about to get torched by the three all year. I REALLY prefer to be wrong here and would be so happy if coach actually adjusts. I’m just not optimistic based on everything we’ve said, and everything he’s said, up to this point.

I’d change that to “we’ll start our most talented 5” as I think our “best 5” wouldn’t include Malik playing next to Ballo. Id expect our “best 5” to be Rice, Carlyle, Galloway, Mgbako, Ballo. That’s at least the most balanced lineup this amateurs eyes can see. Could change if Malik becomes a better shooter/perimeter defender or if Tucker comes on strong.

I’m still not confident that our coach will put these young men in the right position to maximize success this year. My “way too early” guess is a top-6 B1G finish with a round of 32 exit. Just enough for some people to think he should still be around, but bad enough with the talent where most still want him gone.

If Dusty May goes with 2 7-footers in his lineup Hoosier fans may lose their minds.