Juwan Moye

I had read somewhere that it was unlikely, can't recall where I read this or the source though sadly.

Yeah, I should’ve clarified: I’m not saying this is a final four caliber team, just that I’m expecting more “running and gunning”, so Iowa may be a more apt comparison. We all seem to agree that this team should be solid on the offensive end, which is already a big deal given our last 8 years, the questions are just around how coach can get the most out of these guys on the defensive end. Hopefully he’s running some Kelvin Sampson style practices.

Yep, that's been my thought as well. If some team plays some back to the basket big that's tough to stop, and he may also be a rim protector, he gets nullified by having to guard Bailey out on the perimeter. So we have Conerway able to facilitate a 5-out offense while likely having 3 elite shooters out on the wing. We may see a lot of similarities to 2023-2024 Alabama, just potentially not as fast-paced depending on if coach is actually committed to getting shots up early which he hasn't necessarily done with consistency before.

The point the Debbie downers were trying to make was basically our roster isn’t as good as it could be because we didn’t spend money. (Paraphrasing here) Regardless, this roster looks solid by all accounts, especially on the shooting front. If our main weakness is “rim protection” I can live with that in year 1 of a “tear it down to the studs” rebuild.

I tried explaining this in vain earlier in the thread. A guy like PJ Haggerty, who is really good, reportedly turned down $3m from Memphis as he was asking for $4m. Ole Miss reportedly offered him $3.5m. So the idea that all-conference mid major guys like Bailey or Conerway are making $1m+ should be pretty easy to see why this is the case. Conerway especially given he was the Sun Belt POY, really excited to have him.

Twitter land (Tyme) says it’s about Rod Clark as a new assistant and says they’re still trying to get Goode.

Sure, but then you don't seem to be understanding the basic math that I laid out. If we have 8 guys left to sign, and $4.5m of budget left, that means the AVERAGE for each guy is just north of $500k. But guys like Conerway, Alexis, Dorn etc. are likely getting paid more than that. That leaves a smaller amount, probably in that $150k-$300k range that you mentioned, for guys like Drake, Enright, etc. Example: Tucker DeVries - $2m Lamar Wilkerson - $2m Reed Bailey - $1.5m Conerway - $1m Alexis - $800k Harris - $700k Dorn - $700k Miles - $200k Drake - $200k Enright - $200k Sisley - $150k Goode - ???? The above would put us at $9.45m. I just ordered the new transfers in by on3 rankings for the top-7.

Fair enough that agents are propping up numbers but, to my point, we didn't go and get just 'end of the bench' guys. Conerway and Alexis are both top-100 transfers per 247 as an example. We got a lot of guys who showed meaningful production, who all likely could command reasonable NIL money, so seeing that we could have already spent $10m+ isn't that difficult.

Sure, but as a thought experiment let's assume we had $10m to build a roster this offseason. I don't know the actual number but this seems a reasonable approximation. Given some of the numbers thrown around it seems reasonable to assume we paid something like the following: Tucker DeVries - $2m Lamar Wilkerson - $2m Reed Bailey - $1.5m So that's $5.5m of $10m spend leaving $4.5m left to fill out the other 9 spots that we have which would be an average of $500k per player. Given Cupps reportedly got paid $600k you can see how the budget gets eaten up quickly. If we're closer to having a $12m - $13m budget then there's some more wiggle room here but, even then, it's easy to see how we could have already spent all of the budget allotted.

If the report that Game Cupps got $600k from Ohio State is true then you’ve got to assume that most of our players got at least that. Guys like Devries, Bailey, and Wilkerson are probably closer to $2m than $1m.

Fair enough. But just as I’d mock someone acting like we can’t compete in the B1G without rim protection, or that this roster is bad because of preseason rankings, I’d similarly mock someone saying “final 4 or bust” or something similarly absurd. ”reasonable” is looking at this coach and roster, pros/cons and all, and seeing a team that’s much different than what we’ve seen for the last 8 years, that has a lot of proven production on it, and that should get us back into the tournament. If that happens, which personally sitting here today I believe it will, then the season will be a success in my eyes. I’m also excited to see the team consistently take more than 25 3s a game. Just hopeful that coach can coach them up on the defensive end.

You’re nicer than I am apparently :)

Mocking/snark when people are being unreasonable isn’t… unreasonable. We had people freaking out a couple of weeks ago worried “we wouldn’t fill our roster”. And yes, it was a dumb thought process to have that concern so early into the offseason. People are free to have their concern, it doesn’t mean the concern itself isn’t dumb. Now that we have our roster being reasonable critical of it is fine too, an example being worries about a lack of rim protection. But even that, while perhaps a weakness, doesn’t spell doom for the team as some would try to have you believe.

Outside of injuries, I’d argue that getting 10+ guys that have produced high at the mid-major level also hedges against against the risk that some of these guys can’t handle the step up in competition. The roster as constructed isn’t one Carlyle away from disaster. If we have a few guys who can’t step up, as long as they’re not all playing the same position, we should be fine. We’ll likely be surprised at how well some guys transition while also seeing some guys fall flat on their face when the competition heats up. The hope now is that we have an actual college basketball coach who will not only coach these guys up, but will also make the obvious adjustments when necessary. None of us knows how this will go so “cautious optimism” seems the reasonable place to be.

Look at this mid-major bum, I hope they didn’t overpay.

You can get the DVD to learn the pack line from DeVries, sounds like a fun weekend: https://www.championshipproductions.com/cgi-bin/champ/p/Basketball/Open-Practice-Building-the-Pack-Line-Defense-from-the-Ground-Up_BD-05617A.html

Fast-paced, guard-centric offense with an emphasis on shooting the ball. Defensively still unsure. He plays a version of the pack line but I’ve not dug into that too much.

My hope is that Conerway proves effective as an on-ball defender which immediately elevates our defense if he is. While I agree that having a rim protector would be ideal I’d be fine with Bailey as the 5 because then we’d be set up to just outscore teams. Basically what Alabama did the prior year before they decided to try Omoruyi this season. Just sub out Grant Nelson for Bailey.

Needs to be 7’2” 320, otherwise how can we expect to compete in the B1G?

Sure, ideally we’d land an elite defender/rebounder/rim runner but it’s not the necessity that people are acting like it is. “We need it for the B1G”, for… TKR? Cluff? Those guys still have to guard our guys. As a simple example: Houston was in the championship game and their tallest player who got minutes was 6’8”. It’s completely reasonable to go into the season with less size and to still be a very good team. If we have the ability to land an elite guy cool, otherwise I’d rather run with Bailey at the 5 than getting some guy who fits a mold but is less skilled overall.

We had big advantages in the post last year with Ballo/Reneau, how’d that work out? Gonna take some getting used to but the gross post-centric basketball we’ve seen for the last 8 years is going to be a thing of the past. Teams with less size managed to slow us down somehow and beat us from outside.

@Hoosierfanyuh You’re slipping! https://x.com/BobbyKnightmare/status/1916538986853528045

This is where coaching comes in though. Regardless of personnel, DeVries was still able to put together a team that ranked 15th in KenPom DRtg last season. It looks like he’s prioritizing recruiting offense, which is more Fran-like, but he can actually coach defense which we’ve not seen Fran succeed at.

Curious if the thought is that Dorn is a wing starter or coming off the bench. It seems the 4 people most likely to start are: DeVries, Bailey, Conerway, Wilkerson. Dorn would seem to fit in well with that group. He’s a shooter with positional size even if he’s a sub-par defender. I don’t know who else we have on the current roster who would start in front of Dorn at least. So this would assume a lineup of: PG- Conerway SG- Wilkerson SF- Dorn PF- DeVries C- Bailey True 5-out basketball with a PG who can defend and get downhill on offense. Exciting.

I think (hope?) everyone understands this but, generally speaking, early in the year coaches play broader rotations and, once they learn what works, settle into a tighter rotation. So early in the season, expecting 10+ guys to get minutes is reasonable but later in the year it’s likely to tighten up to 8 or so. The luxury we seem to have is that there will be real competition for those minutes instead compared to what we rolled out last year. I personally love the “mid major all conference performer” approach.