Lebowski

While in my home the family tries to follow a vegan diet. But we are flexitarian when it comes to actually labeling our diet. I find when I order out vegan options are slim to none in my area and I do enjoy eating all the meat based products from time to time. During this pandemic we have been 'treating ourselves' with taco night once a week, so we've been cheating in the house but it gives me something to look forward too! ;-) Here's the thing, eating meat is believed to have started this whole pandemic. Something to think about.

Where in the world did I say it doesn't work?

Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf Let's all hope our professionals can find something to defeat this virus.

Hide and watch.

I don't know. I'm having trouble finding the most recent forecasts. As of April 17, 2020, the expert consensus is that the US will have reported around 47k COVID-19 deaths by May 1, with a 90% percent chance of having between 32k and 82k. Keep in mind depending on what forecast/survey you read will depend on the projection amount. For example, this survey forecast deaths will increase to around 47k by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82k by that time. The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won't peak until June or later. They also expect that between 8 and 11 states will report more than 1k deaths by May 1.

That's cherry picking. This virus is still being studied. Experts will continue to inform us when new information isn't on par to what they understand the science to be. Science 101 dude.

I'm not sure I'm following you. What's the debate? And how is this a 'we vs us' thing? In my experience science typically doesn't debate. Those that try to understand the science use it to help make decisions and have fact based conversation. And when folks don't agree with it and try to frame their own conversation typically science comes back to wreck havoc on those folk. As it has throughout mankind.

Exactly. That's my point about seeing this virus through the shade of a certain color. At some point this virus will dissolve all that.

Come to my town. You might change your mind regarding the amount of people saying those things. Last week, I literally had to explain to a very good highly intelligent friend with an engineering degree that while car fatalities are high and are unfortunate the comparison is misleading and disingenuous. I had to explain the math and how an exponential virus works. I then proceeded to send him a link so he could get a nice visual and better understanding of why we are reacting the way we are. On a personal note/dig to my good friend, it appears his Purdue degree doesn't seem to be working out to well for him! ;-) https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like Just yesterday, my neighbor compared this virus to the flu. I'm not sure if you've seen all the protest taking place at state capitals across the nation where there are various signs of why folks are protesting. Some of those signs are just Darwinism happening right before our very eyes. On March 24, 2020, Trump said this regarding COVID-19: "We lose thousands of people a year to the flu. We never turn the country off..” “We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We didn’t call up the automobile companies and say, ‘Stop making cars,’” So I have to ask you, why do you think the people I've been experiencing are saying these things? I mean Dr. Phil is a popular dude and he made similar comments to Trump days (April 16, 2020) later, on a news media outlet that highly influences a large percent of the population and the talking head he was addressing just nodded her head in agreement.

I don't. When you see and hear people compare COVID-19 fatalities to car accidents and drowning fatalities per year we have a long way to go. A long way.

COVID will change every person on this planet's thinking. Keep in mind folks, I'm strictly talking about this virus. Nothing else. Right now, the US is politicizing it. That will change.

Those watching Fox News or MSNBC will all be on the exact same page. Talking heads like Laura Ingraham and Rachel Maddow won't be asking Dr. Fauci misleading questions. Instead they'll be providing valuable identical information to their viewers. A news outlet won't compare this virus to car accident fatalities. People won't be defending their political affiliation. Conversations regarding this virus won't be politically driven. The colors Red and Blue are tied to political parties. I'm not sure how else to say it. Hope this answers your question. Stay safe.

Here's the thing folks, this isn't a political thing. The sooner you look in the mirror and realize that the faster all of us take the virus and shove it up it's butt. Science is our secret weapon in this fight. And experts in the infectious disease field are our General Washington's of our time. I strongly believe the colors red and blue will dissolve into COVID. I'm just not sure how soon.

I would also add the testing included contact tracing. That was huge! Because they completely understand the math behind this virus. In addition, they also have been through contagion scares in the not so distant past thus were better prepared for this. But make no mistake, every country we're talking about will continue to see new cases and more deaths. In South Korea, as of today, more than 140 seemingly recovered patients have retested positive for COVID-19. This indicates that wide scale testing, while it's important and we need it, isn't going to control this virus. Also, what I think is being lost in translation among the talking heads on the television is that effective wide scale testing isn't going to be available in days or weeks. But instead we're looking at months for the availability. Furthermore, the FDA opened the flood gates for corporate businesses to go all Yosemite Sam on the testing market. Of the 70 tests that just got approved 35 were junk, that's the FDA's own words. So how effective the tests are will be an issue. On a personal note, this country needs a major national presence to provide the leadership. While the private sector should be there the leadership needs to be straight up honest with the reality of the situation and not promise false hope. Science has wrecked havoc on false hope and will continue to do so. Science doesn't care about party affiliation, network media outlets or the stock market. This virus won't miss one community, it won't miss one county, it won't miss one state. Rural areas are going to be disproportionately hit. It won't come as quickly. It's just a matter of time. It's us vs. the virus. Again, at some point we as a nation won't see the color red or blue. We'll see the color COVID.

Mid-April and yesterday the US city NYC hit roughly 6589 or *10,367 deaths in one day. This is the second day to hit above 2k, the first being 4/10/2020. Rural areas haven't been affected yet. But it will. If you recall the White House's best-picture scenario of 100k to 240k deaths, predicted the US will hit a peak death rate of more than 2k deaths a day in mid-April. According to Johns Hopkins yesterday's death toll was 2405. There's a stark difference between what NBC News is reporting, because NYC just reported their counts around 1pm EST. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936 *That number is 'probable', meaning the victim as someone who had not testes positive, but whose death certificate lists that they were killed by COVID-19 the disease associated with coronavirus. At some point the country as a whole won't see the color red or blue. They'll see the color COVID. Hopefully sooner than later.

Well, he didn't get taken to a concentration camp and those darn 'Nazis' issued an apology, so, there's that. Here's what I've learned, the hard way, through the years, just don't be a jerk to authority. If they ask you for identification, you should probably give them your ID. If you don't have priors, didn't commit a crime and don't have any warrants there's a 99.99999% chance you're not going to get cuffed. Heck man, just don't be jerk in general has been a pretty solid road traveled for me. Since you're up on the science behind predictive modeling, this is called an 'anomaly' in the algorithm applied to the predictive model. ;-)

Honestly, I would imagine that's been the concern from the top to bottom at every level in every sector whether that be government or private. The ultimate goal here is to save lives and avoid unnecessary deaths. The amount of beds per 1k people here in the states is something like 2.8. South Korea has 12.3. That's what I think some of the folks on here don't fully understand or aren't addressing. On a side note: You have to be an incredibly selfish arrogant person to not follow the guide lines of social distancing because it's ultimately about saving lives. I mean to self quarantine is a gift. That's a gift you're giving other people.

I think it's really important to understand the term 'flattening the curve' as this term is what's driving a lot of the predictive models some folks on here don't seem to grasps. Or at least not fully addressing it when they post their opinions on here. Here's a link that explains it pretty well. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html Cliff notes: The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. As we're seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak. A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away. A model is also adjusted based on exponential growth of the spread as well. Ultimately being able to test would really hammer down some of these predictive models being applied. A very good model to look at is South Korea.

If CAM attacks, belittles, and disagrees with his own scouting team in front of his own players I can't imagine how his team would react. Yet alone his scouting team. And if half of the fan base agrees with CAM and the other half doesn't the only thing that would get everybody on the same page would be wins and losses. Anyone that has ever played competitive team sports understands the toxic ticking time bomb of a losing season in an environment like that.

I hear ya. The more that are tested the more accurate a count of confirmed cases and a completely better handle of the entire situation at all levels in all directions. Hindsight will be 2020 when this is all done but one of the valuable lessons we are learning in real time is the importance of testing early and often.

Keep in mind confirmed cases is next to meaningless because most can't get tested. As you illustrate here considering counts of deaths is more directionally accurate and telling than confirmed cases as this thing progresses. Let's hope that 'bit of good news', which is actually really big giant good news, is not an anomaly. Thanks for sharing.

Can we just take it easy, man. This aggression will not stand. We're all in this together. As I've said for some time now, we're getting ready to hit mid April. Lots of lives have and are going to be turned upside down. Buckle up.

That's great y'all are talking about politics but COVID-19 doesn't give a poop. Science doesn't care whoever is in control to make the leadership decisions. Science will always expose leadership whether that be good or bad. Always. The entire world is dealing with infection rates that health care systems are struggling to manage. The value of early testing is abundantly clear. Hopefully leadership will understand this and implement something for the future. What's unfortunate, to get back on the political train, is that depending on which team you cheer for will either dismantle or reassemble whatever decision is decided to implement.

Thanks for sharing. Like I've been saying. Mid April, we'll get a better understanding of the situation.

Maybe. But he also wrote this in the same blog: "All my concerns in the first post turned out to be true. All of the math I laid out was true."