Lebowski

Honestly, I would imagine that's been the concern from the top to bottom at every level in every sector whether that be government or private. The ultimate goal here is to save lives and avoid unnecessary deaths. The amount of beds per 1k people here in the states is something like 2.8. South Korea has 12.3. That's what I think some of the folks on here don't fully understand or aren't addressing. On a side note: You have to be an incredibly selfish arrogant person to not follow the guide lines of social distancing because it's ultimately about saving lives. I mean to self quarantine is a gift. That's a gift you're giving other people.

I think it's really important to understand the term 'flattening the curve' as this term is what's driving a lot of the predictive models some folks on here don't seem to grasps. Or at least not fully addressing it when they post their opinions on here. Here's a link that explains it pretty well. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html Cliff notes: The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. As we're seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak. A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away. A model is also adjusted based on exponential growth of the spread as well. Ultimately being able to test would really hammer down some of these predictive models being applied. A very good model to look at is South Korea.

If CAM attacks, belittles, and disagrees with his own scouting team in front of his own players I can't imagine how his team would react. Yet alone his scouting team. And if half of the fan base agrees with CAM and the other half doesn't the only thing that would get everybody on the same page would be wins and losses. Anyone that has ever played competitive team sports understands the toxic ticking time bomb of a losing season in an environment like that.

I hear ya. The more that are tested the more accurate a count of confirmed cases and a completely better handle of the entire situation at all levels in all directions. Hindsight will be 2020 when this is all done but one of the valuable lessons we are learning in real time is the importance of testing early and often.

Keep in mind confirmed cases is next to meaningless because most can't get tested. As you illustrate here considering counts of deaths is more directionally accurate and telling than confirmed cases as this thing progresses. Let's hope that 'bit of good news', which is actually really big giant good news, is not an anomaly. Thanks for sharing.

Can we just take it easy, man. This aggression will not stand. We're all in this together. As I've said for some time now, we're getting ready to hit mid April. Lots of lives have and are going to be turned upside down. Buckle up.

That's great y'all are talking about politics but COVID-19 doesn't give a poop. Science doesn't care whoever is in control to make the leadership decisions. Science will always expose leadership whether that be good or bad. Always. The entire world is dealing with infection rates that health care systems are struggling to manage. The value of early testing is abundantly clear. Hopefully leadership will understand this and implement something for the future. What's unfortunate, to get back on the political train, is that depending on which team you cheer for will either dismantle or reassemble whatever decision is decided to implement.

Thanks for sharing. Like I've been saying. Mid April, we'll get a better understanding of the situation.

Maybe. But he also wrote this in the same blog: "All my concerns in the first post turned out to be true. All of the math I laid out was true."

The Dude abides.

His primary analysis isn't focusing on confirmed cases. That's a faux number. He calls it 'close to meaningless' due to lack of testing. He's focusing on the future forecast (hospitalizations) based on the lack of testing being applied right now. Declining rate of today's confirmed cases shouldn't be the focus and an absolutely worthless number right now for this type of math. (Especially in state's that have been relaxed with lockdowns.) It will potentially later down the road however. Focusing on confirmed cases is the actual problem. That's what he's trying to say here. He mentioned the count of deaths will be 'more directionally accurate and telling' as this thing keeps going. And I believe that. He's also very generous with what number to use on how to apply the exponential math. And most importantly he's fully admitted all of his calculations are assumed. However, by applying the exponential math to this virus he's able to conceptually infer his assumptions. His initial thought of applying 10x to confirmed cases was actually too low based on the current growth. That much is true. In my opinion right now this very second the key number to watch is the amount of testing that is taking place.

While that is true, the virus itself is an 'exponential virus'. So that means if I'm in a town of 3600 or a city of 3.6 million the exponential growth of the spread is the same percentage regardless. The percentages drastically change depending on types of lock down in your state or town etc. etc. Here's an effective visual to demonstrate. Here's a read from a Software CEO out of Oregon that so far has been spot on with the numbers by applying math. I encourage everyone to read it. https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/why-there-are-more-people-with-covid-in-your-town-than-you-think-3fa81406bb75

That's a perfect world of applying the exponential equation however there are plenty of states that have not taken the proper measures for the math to work they way you are thinking. Unfortunately, the United States isn't on the same page from state to state. Mid April should show us where we are as a country regarding the spread. China was/is able to apply that math you speak of because well, it's China. They have the authority to apply draconian measures. What we do know right now is that the global spread is on a massive trajectory at an alarming pace. Yesterday we hit the 5th 100k confirmed cases in a matter of 2 days. As I type this right now we're likely to hit the 6th 100k in 1 day. Currently sitting at 565k confirmed cases.

The US just passed China with total cases. Buckle up.

Thanks for sharing. So it looks like NY is testing more than the rest of the country. That might explain the count discrepancy.

I'm not sure that'll be the case. I think any town regardless of size is susceptible based on how it spreads. People go to grocery stores. People got to gas stations. People go to parks. It just takes a location like these examples and it spreads like wildfire. Does anyone know the test rate NY has over all other states in the country? It'll interesting to see if that's a factor.

In just two days the world is going to hit the 5th 100k case. We hit 400k cases on 3/24 and today we're going to hit 500k easy. This thing is on a massive trajectory at a speed like nothing we've seen in our lifetime. And the US is just getting started. Please take this very seriously folks and if you know someone in the front lines at a hospital thank them. They're gonna need some love and encouragement. They're our soldiers in this battle.

Honestly, I'll gladly eat crow on any of my predictive thoughts/opinions. Gladly.

I would assume that's indeed a factor. I would imagine acceleration rate is much faster in high density populations. But that's just an assumption. I lived in LA for a decade. I lived in a beach town and we lived on top of each other there. And the town I lived in had an estimated population of 750k. Mass trans is completely different in LA compared to NYC that's for sure and that might be a big factor of the spread. That being said I have very little doubt that LA will be effected though. I also believe Florida will be our next region hit pretty hard. Again, mid April, we as a country will get a better understanding of what's going on. Edit: Another thought as to why the rates are different are due to the amount of testing? It'll be interesting to see if NY is testing more than CA and WA.

NYC is the epicenter. Governor Cuomo aptly described his situation as the 'canary in a coal mine' because the virus is spreading as predicted by the professionals. LA will see it as will most urban areas throughout the entire country. Like I said we as a country will get a better understanding around mid April. It is going off like a bomb. The infections are doubling every 3 days, as predicted. (AKA an exponential virus.) Hospitalizations are increasing and max capacity is starting to occur. Like I stated already, 15% of all cases are being hospitalized. That's a massive amount of people that our current healthcare system/infrastructure can't handle. This will most likely be countrywide to the states that didn't take the proper measures to try to stop the 'exponential growth' of the spread. Folks, please focus on the exponential growth of the spread and lack of facilities to handle the 15% of those infected having to be hospitalized. That's the issue. That's the problem. That's the magic sauce to address.

What we do know is it has a 15% estimate of serious cases that will require hospitalization. But I think you might be focusing on the wrong thing. Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID-19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID-19 is relatively low. All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on... This virus is exponential, if you'll notice I've said that consistently. It's exponential. That's important. The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. This is where it gets really tricky to explain because some states have taken measures and others have not. Let's assume Indiana have taken "limited action" for their people. The way exponential growth works is I have to take the number of confirmed cases in an area and multiply by 10 to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. So in Monroe County with 3 (If you want you can add more cases since you believe there are actually more cases not reported.) confirmed case the number of infected people doubles every 3 days as the infections spreads. So I take 3 and multiply but 2. And then do it again 10 times in total. The final total equals 3072. This is known as 2 to the 10th power. This result is the estimate for the actual cases in Monroe County 30 days from today. Now I'm going to divide 3072 by the current population of Monroe County. According to Wikipedia the population is estimated 137,974. 2.2% of the population in Monroe County will be infected in 30 days from now. Now I'm going to take 15% (460.8) of the 3072 to get the estimate of the serious cases which will require hospitalization and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available to a hospital in Monroe County. According to Google IU Bloomington Hospital has 270 staffed beds. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to COVID-19. Most hospitals have an average, 40 or fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment. There are fewer ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals. There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases. IU Bloomington Hospital will have a much greater mortality rate because they won't be able to adequately care for the sick. And by sick I mean not just COVID-19 patients. And this will be the case in every town in the US. In particular the states that haven't taken measures to deal with the exponential growth because the math is very different when measures are taken. Thankfully, Indiana has taken those measures. In regards to China, I mean at this point does it matter they lied? That's something to talk about at a much later time in my opinion.

I think we would have already have seen a problem with the our hospital capacity/infrastructure at this point based on the way the virus spreads so I don't agree with that assessment. Our first known case was back in January and it's been spreading as predicted by our medical professionals. I'm not saying your wrong but based on the virus being exponential we kind of already know when it arrived here in the states. Or at least have a pretty solid starting point.

I completely misread your quote here, I thought you called me Dr. Fauci! Or did you? So far, it's 100% that 0.2% of those that contract COVID-19 regardless of demographic are fatal. And we don't really have a complete understanding of the situation here in the states until about mid April. Some local governments are taking the right measures based on known scientific data on how to handle these kinds of viruses. But places like Tennessee, Florida, and Texas are probably going to see some very large numbers of fatalities in about three months.

With the current known number every person on the planet that test positive has a 0.2% chance of fatality. The percentages go higher depending on your age, comorbidities, and sex. Unfortunately, these are just facts. I've been pretty constant on here saying we'll probably get a better understanding of the situation come mid April because this virus is exponential and I still feel that way.

As of today, according to Hopkins, mortality rate is about 4.3% and in Italy it's running north of 9%. I would say the virus is a major problem for every human on the planet if those percentages are correct. It's completely foolish to think otherwise.