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Hoosierfan2017

Senior Member
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Everything posted by Hoosierfan2017

  1. Hoosierfan2017

    College Bball Thread

    I'm interested in how that shakes out for other teams as well. Pre-season rankings can be a crap shoot, but both starting and ending the season in the top 10 in six of the past ten seasons is pretty dang good.
  2. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Wow. They're counting all home deaths as Covid19 deaths even without testing? There's a lot of smoke, and they aren't exactly quelling the conspiracy theory fires with policies like this. I just don't know what their play is.
  3. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Maybe we are, but doesn't this pose the risk of going too far in the other direction? We're currently focusing on testing people with suspected cases, and only 15-20% of those tests come back positive. If they have that much trouble figuring out who has it while they're alive, why believe they'd be much better at predicting suspected cases when they're dead? The symptoms are very similar to other illnesses.
  4. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    What is the rationale for this? Counting people who die with coronavirus as dying from coronavirus is one thing. But counting people who haven't even been tested as coronavirus deaths? That seems... Suspicious. The cynic in me says it's to inflate the numbers. Do they do this with any other virus?
  5. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Thousands of healthcare workers are getting laid off... During a pandemic. What's going to happen to eye doctors, dentists, family practitioners, etc., when they aren't allowed to open? Folks are concerned about overwhelming the 'healthcare system,' but our current policies are going to deal massive blows to it.
  6. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Good point. The 17 million is most definitely an underestimate, given what you mentioned and also the difficulty people are having getting through to the unemployment departments.
  7. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Is your family still getting a paycheck right now? 17 million people have lost their jobs in the past three weeks. That's more than 'some' people. If you're still collecting a check right now then sure, staying home is great. It's basically a paid vacation. Millions of people aren't so lucky.
  8. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I'm not exactly sure what you're talking about here. NYC is on a shelter in place with non-essential businesses closed. So is Indiana. People are still packed into the subway. You say I'm arguing that the experts don't know what they're talking about. Yes, that's largely what I'm saying. The 'experts' also told us that coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person. The 'experts' also told us not to wear masks because masks don't work. Now they've changed their stance. Why should we blindly believe what the 'experts' tell us when they've already gotten so many things wrong? The countries that have restricted movement the most - Spain, Italy, and France - have also been hit the hardest. You assume that shelter in place in the only way to slow the spread, but I've given you 7 states without shelter in place orders that are doing fine. Their hospitals are empty, not overrun. They have few deaths. Places like Sweden are avoiding shutdowns right now. They may have a larger short-term hit, but the idea is that it will allow them to have a smaller long-term hit. Do the models predict how many people die if unemployment hits 30%? 17 million in the past three weeks and some want to act like these shutdowns are sustainable for months to come.
  9. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    That's my point though. A one-size fits all shelter-in-place order doesn't make much sense given how different parts of the US are from other parts. My parents' town has a thousand people in it. Why have it under the same kind of order as New York City? They're still packing subway cars in New York while businesses are all shut down in small towns.
  10. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The models all took social distancing into account, so that doesn't explain why they were all so off. Their model was predicting 62,000 new cases per day at their peak without social distancing.
  11. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I can give you my account number of you're looking for a place to deposit some of your Trump bucks, lol. In all seriousness though that's great that you and your wife are doing that. I hope that more people decide to do something similar. Imo, our current strategy is increasing the chances of a second spike because we're not going to have any herd immunity. Healthy/young people aren't being exposed to the virus because we're all staying away from each other. I get that we don't want young people spreading it to at-risk groups, but if we can figure out a way to keep those groups safe while it spreads amongst the rest of us, that could probably go a long ways toward avoiding a second spike.
  12. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Don't know. The 7 states without shut down orders, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, have a combined 80 deaths. If full-on, shelter in place shutdowns are necessary to prevent mass death, shouldn't those states be seeing way more deaths than they currently are?
  13. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I don't know if you're a doomer or not, but you weren't who I had in mind when I said it fwiw. The deaths are a lagging number since it can take a while to die from the virus. Hospitalizations and ICU patients have been decreasing recently in New York. Now is the time to start talking about opening up the economy, imo, because we need to figure out how we're going to do it before we actually do. Start the conversation now so that way in a few weeks, maybe May 1st, we can start opening things up. It won't be a 0-100 type of thing, and we will still have to do social distancing and avoid mass gatherings. I'm not sure the economy can wait much longer than May 1st. It's barely holding on now.
  14. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The doomers won't like his Twitter account.
  15. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Yes both estimates assumed full social distancing until the end of May. The IHME model has been revised twice in the past week, once on Sunday and once on Wednesday. Before the revisions, I believe it was predicting over 100k deaths. Even Fauci came out today and said they expect deaths to end up below 100k deaths. Even if it is the 'most optimistic' model, it is still overestimating things like hospital beds and ICU beds after two revisions. Outside of the NYC metro area, hospitals are perfectly fine and are not overflowing. California, Texas, and Florida, the 3 most populated states in the US with 89 million people, have a combined 942 deaths. When I checked earlier today, 33 of the 50 states have fewer than 100 deaths. What's happening in the tristate area is tragic, but we shouldn't be treating the rest of the country the same way we're treating that area. It doesn't make sense to completely shut down a state like West Virginia with 4 deaths or a state like Utah with 13. On March 12, the Ohio Health Department director said that they have over 100,000 cases in their state. It's now April 8, and Ohio has had 193 total deaths. Their original model predicted 9,600 new cases per day at Ohio's peak, with strict social distancing. Today they revised it to 1,800 new cases per day at their peak, 6x fewer new cases per day. My money is on that also being an overestimate. At a certain point we have to start questioning what these 'experts' say because they have consistently gotten it wrong and their mistakes have led to 10 million newly unemployed people in the past two weeks, with an estimated 5.5 million more coming in tomorrow's weekly report.
  16. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Death projections have dropped again. And before anyone says "see, social distancing works," this model was created assuming full social distancing in effect through the end of May.
  17. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    California and Oregon are both returning ventilators to the federal stockpile because they don't need them. Cuomo said today that ny has plenty of beds and enough ventilators. Most hospitals across the country are empty because they cancelled almost everything a month ago to prepare for the onslaught that they were told was coming in "two weeks." It's almost time for America to get back to work.
  18. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    He's probably talking about the person who died after he ingested fish tank cleaner that the media tried blaming on Trump
  19. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    She said "if someone dies with covid-19, we are counting that as a covid-19 death." Heart attack? Covid-19. Suicide? Covid-19. If Kobe had tested positive for covid-19, they would've counted that as a covid-19 death. I think you can figure out why that'd lead to inaccurate numbers. But, I guess they have to cook the books as much as possible because their models continue to get it completely wrong. Thread:
  20. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Nope, this is the first time. Which seems more likely to you: (a) billionaire president is pushing chloroquine because a mutual fund he owns has anywhere from a $99 to $15,000 stake in one of the many companies that produces the drug; or (b) president is pushing chloroquine because it's showing promising results and an effective treatment for coronavirus greatly increases his reelection chances? There isn't a conspiracy here.
  21. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Her mouth.
  22. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The drug is off patent and made in generic form by many other companies. No one is going to make a fortune off this.
  23. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Dr. Birx confirmed tonight that if you die with covid-19 they count you as a covid-19 death. She admitted it was a very liberal approach to counting deaths. Seems quite possible that the numbers they're repeating are overestimates.
  24. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    This is in Brooklyn, right in the coronavirus epicenter. Expecting people to stay inside, especially as it gets nicer outside, is unrealistic. It's not going to happen. Every politician should be exploring ways to get the economy back up and running while protecting at-risk groups. What we're doing now is unsustainable.
  25. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    IU not letting the coronavirus get in the way of asking for alumni donations, lol.
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