AH1971

I have no clue what you’re talking about or how that pertains to analytics? Analytics is nothing more than data. It’s a mathematical fact that a 3 point shot is a more efficient shot (over an entire setting) than a 15 foot jump shot. You’re literally arguing against data and math.

Let me add, a 15 foot jump shot isn’t BAD (or at least in the context Scott is suggesting) in a one off setting. But over the course of a season, you’d have to shot at an unreasonable percentage to justify a mid- range shot over a 3 point at even a reasonable clip.

Oh brother lol. That’s literally not at all what they say. Analytics say that that a 15 ft jump shot is way less efficient than a shot at the rim considering they’re both worth the same amount of points or a shot 5 feet further worth an additional point. And that would be unequivocally true. In order for a 15 foot jump shot to be a primary staple of your offense, you’d need a player(s) who could consistently shoot ~60% from that distance. Considering the best players in the world only shoot at about a 50% clip from that distance, a 3 point shot made only 35% of the time is still a better shot. There’s a lot more 35% 3 pt shooters in this world than 60% jump shooters. Analytics have nothing to do with “computer nerds who have never played a sport”. It’s simple probability and literal data computed and incorporated to differing sports across the globe.

How so?

Purdue did it as well with Matt Painter.

Steven Pearl hasn’t even been named coach in-waiting at Auburn. No chance Pearl takes the IU job under the hypothetical assumption his son gets the job when he calls it quits. 1) I don’t think Pearl in a million years would want his son’s first HC gig to be at Indiana 2) Pearl worked his way up the hierarchy ladder to get to where he is today; I’m sure he’s had the same conversations with his son who is only 36 Where are people getting this idea that hiring Bruce Pearl comes with the condition of promoting his son once he retires?

Just say you don’t understand how advance metrics work.

It wouldn’t have taken 3 years at Auburn if the portal existed when he initially took the job. Might want to look at Auburn basketball the 15 years prior to Pearl being hired.

That’s a lot of moving parts. Based on the last 25 years I say there’s a lot better chance Dusty May only sees 5 years than 25 years. I could see Pearl taking the Indiana job to give way to his son getting the Auburn job.

If Keith Smart doesn’t make that shot everybody and their mom still knows who Bobby Knight is. Not sure you can say the same about Dusty May. So no it’s not kind of like comparing the two. I’d hire Bob Knight ten times over if Keith Smart didn’t hit that shot. I “think” Dusty May could do great things here, but the emphasis is on think. Not sold yet. Still lots to like about him though.

Every single recruit out of Monteverde's program should be treated as a one and done. They may not have the tools to go after one year and choose to come back for a season, but every kid coming out of Monteverde has the expectation to get to the league as fast as possible. No way the staff should have been caught off guard.

Which is a shame because he was a damn good player.

Agree. If Pearl wants to leave Auburn it's not because of money.

I think Pearl is smart enough to understand that handing the reigns over to his son at Indiana for a first time HC job is absolutely playing with fire.

Not using it against him, just believe he needs to show more before being offered the job. There's been plenty of coaches that have built solid programs at the lower level that have gone on flash in the pan type runs in the tournament that have absolutely tanked once hired up a level. See Andy Enfield, see Shaka Smart at Texas FAU has some extremely bad, head-scratching losses and not even leading a conference that honestly isn't very good. He's got solid P5 transfers + a diamond in the rough in Davis. I'm not sure I buy the lack of talent narrative. He's absolutely done a phenomenal job putting this core together and riding them out the last couple seasons, but I don't believe it's a guarantee that it translates at a gig like Indiana. May's ability to game plan and implement X's and O's is the least of my concerns if we're being serious. I want to know how he faces adversity in Year 1 when he doesn't have the most talented team on the court or how he fares in Year 2 when IU inevitably goes on a 3 game conference losing streak in late January and the groans get louder. He's never had to deal with expectations at FAU. Being able to handle that kind of pressure at a school like Indiana isn't for everyone.

I still think there is a world where you can get both. Pearl for 6-7 years with May coming in after having coached for several seasons in a P5 conference seems like the ideal situation. I think the timing is right here. Pearl leaving Auburn opens up the door for his son to take over on steady ground and I'd be shocked if Laranaga doesn't hang it up after this season at Miami. Let May coach in Miami and get a taste of real big boy basketball and bring him back for the final home stretch at his alma mater.

Almost an uncontested election at this point

I think Butler playing in back to back title games removes a lot of doubt from any flukiness. If May goes on another deep tourney run with this same core, It’ll surely eliminate the majority of my doubts.

Not necessarily a red flag, but it should be a cause for concern all things considered. Still, I maintain that FAU is a 1st round buzzer beater away from May’s name not even being on the table, not to mention the huge break they received with FDU taking out Purdue the round prior. His trajectory checks all the boxes as do other intangibles, I’m just not sold on his abilities just quite yet.

The jump from C-USA to the Atlantic (after Houston, Cincy, and UCF bolted) doesn’t compare to the jump from the Atlantic to the B10. I think the drastic decline in defensive efficiency in one year with the same core is alarming. I’d have concerns with May going up against the likes of Izzo, Painter, Underwood, etc on top of the big dogs when it comes to recruiting.

So what’s going to happen when he plays a B10 schedule?

Shrews is going to be a good one once he picks a spot and settles down. He’s definitely still in the move up the ladder stage.

I’d say his success at multiple stops spanning 4 decades is a much bigger draw.

If he gets Mullins and Sisley, to go along with Markus Burton, those offensive numbers will change dramatically. A lot of young guys trying to score in a brand new system is never easy.

All very true. I think the same could be said about Archie Miller. I think most thought he was a shoe in for Ohio State job but OSU kind of dragged their feet in moving on from Matta. Had they mutually parted ways a few months earlier, Archie probably takes the OSU job instead.