Think about it from Thad’s perspective. If you’d made a *ton* of money in your life, and someone offered you the Louisville job for 3.5 mil, but you thought there was a good chance the IU job would be open and pay you 2.5 mil at some point soon, would you think for a second about taking the Louisville job? No.
Outside of money, it’s not clear to me why anyone would think Thad would ever *want* IU over Butler, and money is not as important at this point for someone like him.