SamIam

Waiting a year def throws off the Dusty timeline. He will probably have a much bigger buyout, and will have to turn a program around in under a year to be considered. IU is not paying 15-20 mill a year if Dusty just makes the tournament, he would need a Tang-like turnaround. I still think Dusty "would walk to Bloomington," to use Trilly's phrasing, but after hearing what QB thought about Dusty I'm afraid many of those on this board who thought he was "unproven" may have gotten your way. He is not staying at FAU on some hope that IU will open. Without any guarantee, he has to do what is best for his career, and that is taking a P5 job. The Shrews timeline seems like it fits better and he is a great option. He's one of the brightest young coaches in america, he turned around the worst job in the Big Ten in 2 years, and made them see hope in basketball. Then he left that program for ND ostensibly to get back home to Indiana. He would absolutely own recruiting in this state and he is as good with X's and O's as they come. Who cares about "selling it to the fanbase." My top requirement is, was, always will be that the guy is a good coach. To that end, some of you guys will be upset with the hire no matter who it is. They could hire Jesus Christ himself and you would say "yeah well he did it in Judea but that doesn't always translate to the roman league!" If that's you, I would suggest taking a step back. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, because Purdue is going on a run. For the rest of us, we root for Woody in the portal, and for Dusty and Shrews next year. Go Hoosiers.

Okay lets say Dusty May is absolutely fanatical about the IU job. IMO there is still no way that he doesn't take a P5 job, and there's certainly no way he comes to be some HC in waiting here. There is absolutely no guarantee for him that IU will be there waiting if he stays at FAU. Look at this board, some of you think he's "unproven" and that sentiment seems to be shared by QB. If I'm his agent, there's no way I'm letting him pass up this cycle. The money is just too different and there's no guarantee it will be there forever. And if UM/UL go in other directions, WVU is patiently waiting.

Soooooo is there literally any chance of getting McNeeley back? Seems like a lot of the fanbase sees some hope now

IU -77 PSU - 74

Yep, makes too much financial sense but I've been beating that drum for months now. Plus due to the nature of Woody's buyout, he would likely negotiate down to an unqualified lump payment of around 4-6 million. You save so much money acting now it's stupid, and if it ends up being OSU, you have to fork over almost 20 million to a conference rival. Good thing Buckner (and a good amount of posters on this board) believe IU is above hiring Dusty! While we search for a "proven" guy, every other school in the country will be finding actually good coaches because they don't impose stupid hiring limitations on themselves.

It's a double edged sword. Schools want a big buyout to protect them from having a coach poached, but not too big that it would keep a school from moving on. Dusty's camp will try to maintain 100% of the value remaining on the contract for as long as they can to protect him financially. AD's assume that new coaches will get 3-4 years anyway so they will probably agree to high buyout numbers in those years and a decreased buyout in yr 3/4, when they would be renegotiating a new contract anyway. There's been a lot of talk about special clauses in contracts that allow coaches to leave for certain schools....I'm not convinced those actually exist. A lot of these contracts are public and I've never seen such a clause. Besides, why would a school agree to that? First time head coaches don't often have that kind of leverage. If there truly is a bidding war, Dusty will have more leverage than most, but why would he agree to limit his buyout and expose himself to more risk of the university moving on? All that said, I think the buyout will be fairly standard for a first year head coach in the P5. I think his contract will be around 6 yrs, 3.5 Mill/year, with 100% buyout for years 1-3, decreasing in yr's 4,5, and 6. That would put the buyout number at at least 17.5 Million next year. Can we pay that? Will Dusty be any more "proven" next year than he is now to justify it? Who knows

I would say IU is a better job than OSU. I take your point on L'Ville, but I think the point is it won't come down to how good the job is or the money. It comes down to whether he values IU above all the others. With Beard there was a narrative out there for years that UT was his dream job and it was just a matter of time. You hear similar things about Dusty, but who knows if its true. UT was the better job but at the time people thought it was closer than today. TTU had made a championship and an E8, he had built a crazy fanbase and they were prepared to find the money to make a crazy offer. They just couldn't beat out the fact that Beard always wanted UT. We have to hope that Dusty feels similar.

Beard had a good P5 gig, but left for his dream job. Roy Williams had perhaps the best P5 gig but left for his dream job. I've said it before, I'll say it again; if Dusty May is successful, as I suspect he will be, he will have to turn us down at some point. The money won't be an issue. Here's to hoping being his alma mater and growing up with Knight means something to him when the time comes.

You hear so much of the same stuff about Dusty - he's freakishly obsessed with basketball, constantly learning, similar offensive philosophy. I just think Bama plays too fast for my liking. Oats' teams have been top 16 in the nation in pace for the past 7 years. In a tournament setting it only takes one disciplined defensive team to take you out of that. I'm a firm believer that you can't have a gimmick in a tournament setting - can't be too reliant on any one thing. Playing too fast (Bama) or too slow (UVA) leaves you susceptible to running into one team that can expose that. Sh*t, that's been Purdue's problem as they have been over-reliant on the post. Dusty's pace hovers right around 150, a perfect sweet spot. Game to game they can play fast or slow depending on what beats you.

Really not sure which school would be harder to pull him from....OSU with deeper pockets but less commitment to BBall. Overall the fact that he seemingly is looking to get back to the midwest is prob a good sign for us...

Guys there is realistically no chance Woody is let go even if he loses tonight. Im sorry but it's time to give that dream up. Dolson and Woody will meet and say program expectations are higher, remind him that the fanbase expects him to be able to retain top in state players, and say we have all the NIL in the world, do something with it. Next year will be do or die for Woody. Juwan made a S16 and E8 and couldn't survive two down years. Woody has done less. At a program like IU with higher expectations, I expect one bad year and one mediocre year will not save Woody. If it's true that QB doesn't like Dusty, it doesn't matter that he could potentially go elsewhere because we wouldn't hire him anyway. My hope for right now is that Dolson has at least used back channels to reach out to Dusty. IU should get some sense of whether he would leave a P5 job for us.

If you are going to play MM at the four he needs to put on 10 pounds this summer, which is doable. He'd be a serious mismatch there. As for Reneau, it's difficult to say how he would look at the 5. To what extent are his defensive issues due to playing out of position on the perimeter against faster 4's? Same thing with rebounding, he is just slower than his man so he doesn't pursue long rebounds as well, against fives he has been serviceable. He is really savvy and has a super strong base so I think he could hold his own at the 5 in the post, but I don't think he has the athleticism to defend the rim. Basically we may suck at defense but spacing four out with Reneau's low post/passing ability is really intriguing.

I'm sure year one will be the standard buyout of 100% of the remaining value on the contract. The question is how much they pay Dusty per yr. I think it will probably be around 6 yrs and 3.5 million/year. So the buyout would be around 17.5 mill after year one. I think IU could pay it, but the OSU AD would definitely counter. So basically, if he has an average year, IU probably isn't paying it. If he has a good year, IU and OSU could both field huge offers, so it would come down to whether this is actually his dream job. Could go either way, Bob Knight wouldn't leave IU for OSU, Thad Matta wouldn't leave OSU for Indiana, but Roy Williams left Kansas to go home to UNC. Who knows where Dusty is on that continuum

Given the senior day speeches, I don't know if it is a given that Trey Leal MM and MR would be back if they fired Woody. I think the more interesting question is how well does Dusty do next year? If he takes the OSU job and we do end up firing Woodson, he probably has to turn OSU around in 1 year to be considered by admin. Will his buyout one year into his tenure be prohibitively large? It will be interesting to see this all play out, but imagine a future where we fire Woody next year and again pass on Dusty because he didn't compete year one year in the P5.

UNC had five in-transfers this year, replaced 3 starters, and currently sit at #4 in the country and #8 in Kenpom. If you are replacing a whole team every year, you aren't going to be good. But Gallo, Leal, Reneau, Mgbako and Cupps have played lot of B1G minutes now. IF Woody can keep those guys, I think that is a decent starting point.

I want to move on from Woody but this board has gone a little overboard. I think a truly mediocre or worse season next yr gets him canned. Dolson already looked into it, and certain portion of the fanbase isn't going to get any quieter unless we have a legitimately good year. Whatever Woody says, he's 66. The admin is going to be looking to what's next no matter what he does. Someone said that good point guards "might not even enter the portal," which is laughable. The portal is going to be way more insane than any other year. Every single player in the country is immediately eligible. There will be plenty of options, and even if we don't get the "top" guys, there will be more. MVC transfers like Domask and Jones have been great in the B1G this year, while the very sought after Timberlake was sort of disappointing at KU. We don't have to get the "top five" guys. We need one or two studs and solid depth. Building an entire roster through the portal does not work. But the senior day speeches seem to indicate that IU won't be doing that. We should have an experienced core coming back. I thought Woody was insane for talking about missing X, but we were 1-5 without him during his last injury and 4-0 since getting him back. Per Bartorvik, we are the #20 team in the country on this win streak. Guys with MM's recruiting pedigree are serious breakout candidates. MR will be an upperclassmen. Even those of us who wanted a change have to admit there is some reason for hope. This has been a bad year. It has not been up to the standards of Indiana basketball. Now, the seat is hot, and the NIL coffers are full. There are no more excuses. If Woody fails to meet the program's expectations, he's gone. For now I'm focusing on hoping IU's good play continues, and that OSU goes on a run so they hire Diebler.

Yeah people don't realize how many existential threats to the NCAA are developing behind the scenes rn. Best case scenario, the NCAA can get Congress to do something. Then they can regulate NIL, enforce transfer rules and tampering rules etc etc. Most likely scenario, any one of the many pending antitrust cases is handed down, essentially forcing the NCAA to recognize athletes as employees and likely bankrupting them in the process. Even if the NCAA survives that, it likely nukes non-revenue and olympic sports. Even in the best case, if Congress acts on the antitrust point, the NCAA needs to take on the conferences, best case scenario there is that they are able to sever football from all other sports. Thats super unlikely, meaning that the B1G and SEC will take control of CBB and greatly expand the NCAAT. Things are gonna get a lot worse unless people start speaking out about how much they dislike all the changes. Unfortunately most people's opinions don't extend past the very nuanced "NCAA Bad" right now.

Woody needs to go get a proven lead guard. That is need #1. Someone like Thornton, Pope, or Wade Taylor. Absolutely non-negotiable, cannot-miss. I like Holloway and Mintz but I would prefer a sure thing that has shot at least 35% from 3 at some point in their career. Everything else depends on style of play. I would probably get a backup big and a defensive 4, planning to play MR at 5. I expect Woody to find a shot blocker and a backup 4, planning to keep MR at the 4. Some 4's: Mag (RU), Arceneaux (Hou). Some 5's: Onyenso (UK/15(!!)% block rate), Booker (MSU/7.5% block rate), Okpara (OSU/10% block rate). Beyond that, we need spacing and depth. We probably need at least 2 or 3 guys here. Hopefully we can get some interchangeable guys with more than 1 year left who can shoot and drive. Woody has prioritized length and athleticism above shooting in the past, but hopefully Leal playing himself into PT is evidence that Woody has learned something. One note on Indiana guys, Sam Story (I know, I know) mentioned in his pre-season email how much the staff thought Trey/Leal would help them recruiting Indiana guys, because they made so much in NIL. The staff thought they could sell the "if you come here from Indiana, you will be a legend and make a ton of money" angle. I think Blackmon (Stet/Marion), Hickman (Bradley/BSHS), and Essegian (UW/Cent Noble) would listen to that pitch for sure as they all fit the shooting need and are coming from programs that are comparatively deficient in NIL resources.

XB was a top 10 recruit and Essegian made the B1G All-Freshman team with 3 NBA players and Braden Smith. We are talking about them this early because they are from Indiana but they absolutely deserve at least a conversation either way

A court granted an injunction against the NCAA's enforcement of the two-time transfer rule, making all transfers immediately eligible. Plus the NCAA is unlikely to win that case or overturn the temp injunction, so until Congress steps in, it's complete free agency.

Look say what you will about Woody, but he certainly won't allow that haha, those were a lot of people's complaints about KW as well Besides, we could do worse than settling for a 3 from a 35% shooter

Booker is extremely similar to KW in that their freshmen stats look very good when they play, they just get very little run. Woody trusted Ware to maintain efficiency while juicing his minutes and it worked, could for sure see him doing that again.

Great minds! The thing we aren't considering about booker is F*CK CATHEDRAL, GO TROJANS

Does anyone else feel like the narrative lines up almost too perfectly for Booker? Big ten school, closer to home, already recruited him, Purdue has no scholarships left so he cant go there, and we literally just took a top 10 C recruit who struggled to get playing time and turned him into a 1st Rounder. It just makes too much sense.

Agree on Goode, but I think CE still deserves a look. He's struggled with injuries all season and Blackwell cemented himself in the backup SG role, so CE never really got enough run between injuries to show what he did last year. With our critical need for shooting he is absolutely worth the risk and he still has 2 years left.