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Everything posted by Maynard
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1. You forgot several other mid majors that have done well. San Diego State has been far better than Dayton. Northern Iowa recently had a give year stretch where they had tourney success. And there are others. 2. Why can we throw the Zags off of the list? Because they are too good and Dayton doesn't measure up? That makes no sense. 3. I agree, when you throw out every mid major that has been better than Archie, he is them the best! Although you did miss a few that have better records than him. Also, Butler had a better record in the Horizon League under Todd Lickliter than Dayton has under Archie. He has a similar record to people you would never consider hiring at IU. Would you have hired Ben Jacobsen from Northern Iowa after his 7th season there? Probably not. Butler and Xavier moved up, WSU is too good. What's next? Florida Gulf Coast has better weather? 5. There are more schools to complete with in WSU's area than you named and I think yippy realize it. Iowa, Iowa St., Oklahoma/st. Etc. In addition look at the results of people like Archie once they make it to a major conference (where it apparently isn't as tough to win). How is Smart working out for Texas? How was Lickliter at Iowa? The point is that Archie is a gamble. Can he succeed? Absolutely, but there is no metric where he looks great... even compared to Tom Crean. I will put together a comparison of mid majors later and post it. Maybe I am way off. That's the beauty of measurables, they are unaffected by my emotions. We are ok the same side. Those of you excited about Archie are lifting my spirits. However, when people try to whitewash his resume to make look like something it isn't, that doesn't help. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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Let me preface this by saying that I will support Archie and I hope that he does well. I am glad that Crean is gone. But I have to ask, what gives Archie more "upside" than mid major guys will equal or better resumes? With a little looking, one could find 8-10 guys who would fit into that category. Tom Crean had a lot of energy too. I understand that people want to be either excited or pissed. I just don't understand the unquantifiable "upside" that people keep touting. It seems to me that people basically, "have a good feeling about this" and that is fine, just not a logic based argument.
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I just used the stats from the last 7 years, though, Archie's Elite 8 run happened during a year where his stats were very weak. Also, not sure that he had an equivalent rebuild. I am pretty sure there was more talent (in a lesser conference) on AM's first squad than on Crean's first three combined. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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While I don't think that Archie is a great coach, this is the best argument in his favor thus far. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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Yes, but it also takes away from the "he has less talent argument." Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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Also, there are several mid majors who have a better tourney record than Miller over his tenure. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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I think you are wrong. They went to the Elite 8 and then won a play in and first round game the next year. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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You can interpret the numbers however you like. I didn't post words like "potential" and "tactician" I posted his numbers. If you want to factor in talent, I would also consider that Crean's SOS was two times as good as Millers. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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Comparison between Archie and Crean since 2011 (Archie's first year at Dayton). I'll just leave it right here...
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I have been very anti-Sean. The end of game situations Friday looked very much like a Crean coached team. Huge interior advantage... settle for jump shots. That being said, when I ran the numbers on coaches he came in right behind Donovan. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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He benefited from his SOS, and his win% is solid. I agree. I think he and Sean Miller are mostly a product of the talent they have brought in, but I guess that's part of coaching too. I'd prefer a lesser recruiter who overachieves to a great recruiter who underacheives. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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I posted this earlier. I like to try to quantify things with statistical analysis. These are the rankings of coaches over the last 7 years. I used SOS, win%, Pt Differential, and then added a tournament accomplishment component, double weighting tourney results. I tried to make it out of 100, and when I ran the 1976 perfect season through the metric it scored a 100.28. What the hell else am I going to do while I am waiting for more information on the coaching search?
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I don't even think that you can say the stats are there. He has missed the tournament twice and been upset by a team seeded at least three spots lower than him twice. That is four bad endings to a season in 7 years. His SOS is in the 80's, his point differential is not impressive. He had one run. Take away the elite 8 run, and there is not much of a case for Archie over any other above average mid major coach.
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Cal had a better win%, tougher Sos, and no tourney upsets. K has been upset 3 times in the tournament and failed to reach the elite 8 with the same frequency. Just buy the numbers, since 2011 Cal has been better. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using BtownBanners mobile app
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All the debate about which coaches are the best has lead me to ponder what a good rating system might look like. In my business I do a lot of work with numbers in order to compare sets of data. I thought I would give creating a metric for evaluating coaches a go. Without getting too detailed, here is what I came up with. The scale is from 0-100. I factored in win %, SOS, and point differential, and weighted them 45%, 45%, 10%. Knowing how important the tourney is to many people, I created a bonus scoring system (No Tourney=-2, upsets -1, SW16 +.5, Elite 8 +1, FF +2.5, Title +5) and I weighted the tourney accomplishments to be worth 200% of the regular season. If you want more detail about the process, let me know. I included many coaches who have been part of the conversation. Let me know if you want me to include others. I tested it out with several coaches and individual seasons. I knew I was onto something when the 1976 IU season came back at 100.28. *I decided that an upset is when you are defeated by a seed that is at least 3 spots below you. I also used the last 7 years of their college coaching.
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At least his team scored in the 70's though... right? It's crazy that people think he is such an amazing coach. He got outcoached by Chris Webber last night. People don't realize what a great setup Arizona is. People there love their basketball and the draw is second only to UCLA on the West Coast. Still, at a top school he can't get it done. Bennett on the other hand is crucified for not taking Washington to a Final Four, it's silly.
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I've been meaning to bring this up for a while. I know that it will play a key role in the hiring of our new coach. Isn't it time that the title of this thread "Whom do we hire?" I hear Billy's wife is a stickler for correct grammar.
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I don't see that huge of an offensive gap. 6 points separate Miller and Bennett. 6 points, and Miller's strength of schedule is much worse than Bennett's. It would be interesting to compare the W-L record of Bennett when the game gets into the 80's versus others. I think that the aversion to TB is mostly about people who have watched very little UVA basketball OR who have just heard "games in the 50's" over and over again. 6 points = 2 possessions.
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N Adillac???
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With all the talk about Bennett and his offensive inequities, I did a little statistical comparison of him, Archie, and BD. Here is how it turned out.
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Really? Read their forums, typically the most difficult fans to please are on forums. They are indignant at the thought of losing Bennett. They claim that there is no way he would leave them, and they don't want him to go.
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Billy Donovan's teams only averaged 5ppg more than Bennett's and his highest scoring teams were not during his championship years.
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If Tom Crean had done this at Iowa or Penn St. then it would be impressive. Bennett has accomplished these things at schools that have very little history and resources that pale in comparison to IU.
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I prefer Bennett to all others. I agree with your sentiments about his offense. People in Indiana would love Bennett after giving him a chance.
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I've been gone for a while. I must say that the emotional rollercoaster that some of you are putting yourselves through isn't necessary. Have a drink. Hold a baby. Get out for a walk in the woods. Though it may be that his name is said 100 times for every other name mentioned, there will be no Coach Alford at Indiana.