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Aaron

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Everything posted by Aaron

  1. Aaron

    IU Softball

    We learned this is not a top-10 team in the last two games but we already knew that. Just keep beating the teams at your level and below as they have so far and team will cruise into a third straight NCAA Tourney.
  2. Would have been a great bonus game to have but changes IU's postseason outlook very little. Still an 8-10 seed in NCAA's and a high quad one road loss will do nothing to hurt the resume. Would be great to get the next two, but as long as they get Purdue they are very safely in tourney regardless.
  3. IU's in now period. Unless they lose their next two games, Purdue, and first game of Big Ten Tourney. It is a very weak bubble and last nights win all but locks them in to a sixth straight bid to March Madness.
  4. To everyone who has called this a forgettable season please stop. Team just wrapped up a sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance during what is sort of a rebuilding year. To every fan who complains when an IU team is not a top 10-15 squad and thinks this level of play is not good enough needs to reevaluate. Everyone is free to choose how they want to be a fan and I respect that, but it so disappointing the way too many of our fans complain when an IU team has a solid but not great season as women are having now and seen it to much across all the sports. Great job breaking the press and best performance of season by far!
  5. This is essentially a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament. Win any of the next 3 and you are safely in March Madness as long as you don't trip up against Purdue. Postseason Scenario's: Safely in: 1. Win one of next three games vs. Ohio State, MSU, or Maryland + beat Purdue 2. Win at least two of next three games vs. Ohio State, MSU, or Maryland + lose Purdue Bubble: 1. Lose next three and beat Purdue 2. Win one of next three games vs. Ohio State, MSU, or Maryland + lose Purdue Out without run in Big Ten Tourney: 1. Lose all remaining regular season games
  6. Aaron

    IU Baseball

    You clearly don't follow the team close enough. In five seasons, Mercer has three NCAA Tournaments, a Big Ten title (and no, the last coach was worse, so it wasn't simply babysitting the previous administration's players when it happened), one missed tourney by a game, and one dud of a season. If Woodson had has this same success, we would still not be thrilled but also its livable. The Big Ten in baseball is essentially a very high end Mid-Major similar to the Atlantic 10 and IU has had more consistent success then any other program in the conference. Mercer is not perfect but he has also had a reasonable amount of success Woodson could only dream of. It is an issue with both Men's Soccer and Baseball, that it takes half a season to play well and then team takes off as will almost certainly happen again. The slow starts have to be fixed. Period. Otherwise, things are nowhere near Woodson's level. The issue as I have talked about on a women's basketball discussion, is fans have to stop considering every season where team starts slow or is not top 10-15 in the country a failure. These programs outside of men's basketball will not sustain solid success (and yes this includes a likely coming eight win football team yearly), if fans keep considering postseason appearances and not always being ranked a failure and this is a huge issue. Slow starts must be addressed and fixed, but the fanbase needs to look in the mirror and address thinking every season where a team makes postseason but is not ranked, a "failure" or "disappointing" as I see far to often.
  7. Aaron

    IU Baseball

    I am going to say this very calmly: This team will likely take half a season to figure out their pitching but once they do, they will take off and get into a Regional. The question is not if but when this will happen. My issue is much like with soccer, it cannot keep taking half a season to figure things out as it cost you seeding in the postseason. Instead of a favorable draw to the College Cup and College World Series you end up with the hardest path possible. There is a ton of talent and it does not need to be this way but its also why they figure it out eventually. Instead of clamoring for firing the coaches, their needs to be scrutiny from fans and athletic administration of why this is happening, but also grateful it gets figured out.
  8. They are way closer to the Big Ten Championship than the bottom of the league for sure. The top of the Big Ten is UCLA and USC and IU gave both those teams all they could handle before losing late. Meanwhile they are 4-0 against the bottom five (with two vs. Purdue to go) with a combined winning margin of 71 points. You have three teams at top (UCLA, USC, and OSU), five (PSU, Wiscy, PU, NW, Rutgers) at bottom, and 10 you can more or less throw in to one big pot that are kind of between elite and awful. IU is very much right in the thick of that group. 0-2 vs. Top 2, 3-4 vs. the teams in their group and 4-0 vs. bottom of league. Ultimate definition of right in the middle which is exactly what they are.
  9. I expect them to beat Purdue twice, one of the three other Big Ten games, and first game of Big Ten Tourney which will get you a bid as a 10 seed at 19-12. You would indeed need to win first NCAA game which would be toss up to get to 20. Season has certainly not been perfect and far from it but it is not a failure either. Its not always a case of elite of failure. Truth can be in between which is exactly what has happened this season.
  10. Absolutely. Outside of men's basketball, many fans will not watch a product at IU that is not a top-10-20 team. Lets see if an 8-9 win Cignetti era yearly leads to full stadium each week. I have my doubts as Mallory era had great attendance early and dropped of for "only winning" 6-8 games. I'd like to think this will be different, but every program outside men's basketball has the same story told again and again that if you are not a top 10-20 team, many people consider it a failure and stop coming and complain season is forgettable or a failure. Women's basketball is latest example and after what has happened with baseball in similar situation I see no evidence fans will support any team not named men's basketball that isn't elite. Unfortunately you need casual fans to sustain a program and at IU that group of people is always following men's basketball and other sports only if at very top. There is some level of fair weather fans everywhere but this describes way to many people here. Fans are welcome to keep having this attitude, but don't be surprised when nothing but men's basketball fails to sustain long term success as has happened again and again with IU's other 23 programs.
  11. Its not because of the guards mostly. Yes they have been somewhat inconsistent. However, teams largest issue stems from a lack of a starting level center. Moren's system relies on a strong center who either scores or gets double teams and gets shooters open. When you don't have that, the whole offense looks like it is in mud. The defensive intensity is usually good with a couple of exceptions like last night. Yes there are some other minor issues similar to other seasons but this can all work with a starting level Big Ten center. It does not need to be someone on Mack's level but someone on Bostic or Markowski's level who is starting level Big Ten center. Lily has been a massive disappointment and given the offense Moren runs it effects everything. If you ran this system with same players and a starting level Big Ten center you would likely be 9-4 in league and around where Michigan St is. Moren knows it and has stopped playing Lily much. However, she can't address this till offseason. The margins are so thin and with that starting center you beat Harvard or Butler and probably Oregon and one of these last two road games. This puts season in whole different context and then you are on verge of hosting. Not having an elite center is worth 3-4 wins and that makes all the difference in the world. As good as Striplin was last night, she missed a huge layup late that was difference and her layups in general are somewhat awkward. You need someone who is a near automatic when down in low block instead of holding breath every time she or Lily is down there. You run this team back next year with mostly same players and a Bostic or Markowski level center and you are having year MSU is which no one would complain about. I'd love to get back to being top 15-20 every year but that is not realistic. Just need to be baseball in a post-Schwarber era and this year is likely to be exactly what 2015 was after that era where team spent whole year on bubble and squeaked in. Then it got a little worse before three straight better seasons that were not perfect but very good. Could easily see this trajectory and need to embrace that instead of complaining about it as has happened at times with baseball. High expectations are great, but coming off a couple years of being elite after being a nothing program does not mean being unranked with postseason appearances is a failure somehow. To many have adapted this mentality across the board in sports.
  12. Its pretty sad we are calling a likely 20 win season and first or second round appearance in NCAA's a forgettable season. Fan base has gotten spoiled similar to post-Schwarber days with baseball where an NCAA Tourney appearance most seasons is considered "forgettable". There is a big gap between elite and forgettable and too many people have adapted the 'if your not first you are last" mentality. This season is not like last few but definitely not forgettable. It is very similar to 2018-2019.
  13. I am talking about every team in the Big Ten vs. Michigan. My comment had zero to do with IU's recruiting but instead everyone potentially negative recruiting against Wolverines for their lack of program support. You took what I said in a totally different direction from what I meant. However, next year depends on finding a starting level center in portal and some player development. Confident in Shay (who could well me much better after one yr in system similar to leap Scalia took), Yarden, and Lennee as Big Ten starting level guards for three of the spots. The rest we need to see what happens in portal. Remember post Tyra Buss things looked somewhat bleak but they figured it out by bringing Patberg and others from portal. In this day and age in college basketball we need to see what happens in offseason before we make large declarations about programs future and next season. If the current roster is what they go in with then there is cause for alarm but in this day in age that is far from likely. No different than declaring men are screwed with new coach since everyone could transfer. Until offseason "free agency" plays out in college basketball for both genders you really can't know what things will look like. College basketball teams are year-to-year businesses now and as fans we have to adjust to that.
  14. If I am every other Big Ten team, I am using this against them with every recruit in contention for Michigan going forward. They have been on IU's level last few years and yet attendance continues to be awful. Zero excuse for their fan base and I hope it costs them top talent like Swords going forward. They don't deserve top players with that fan bases fan commitment level to program. Fell bad for Kim Barnes-Arico who is a great coach but the fan base just isn't catching on.
  15. Not feeling good about this one. Think the home games are more likely despite being against the tougher teams but have to get at least one more in regular season for realistic tourney shot (see above).
  16. Need two more non-Purdue wins to go to March Madness likely. Path to clinch March madness is: 1. Winning both Purdue games. Two of Michigan, OSU, MSU, Maryland, or Big Ten Tourney game. 2. Winning one of the Purdue game. Three of Michigan, OSU, MSU, Maryland, or Big Ten Tourney game. 3. Lose Both Purdue games. Four of Michigan, OSU, MSU, Maryland, or Big Ten Tourney game. Easiest by far is path one and the way season is quite likely to play out in end. My gut is they get Maryland and First Game Of Big Ten Tourney to squeak in as either last 10 seed and bye or first four in Dayton.
  17. Aaron

    IU Women's Soccer

    https://iuhoosiers.com/news/2025/2/11/womens-soccer-josh-rife-named-indiana-womens-soccer-head-coach Not a fan of this hire. Didn't really set the world on fire at Ball State and if you notice there is very little talk about a ton of success in press release which is never a good thing. This strikes me as a "field a program hire for Title IX" and I don't expect this hire to change anything. Women's Soccer is way down the list at IU and this hire is very very unlikely to change that. He did play on the men's team for a bit at IU in early 2000's but never saw the field much I don't believe.
  18. Hindsight is great. Clearly we know now Lily is not a starting level center. However, before season started everyone on here was hopeful she would take that leap and it just has not worked out. What Moren has accomplished without a starting level Big Ten center is truly impressive since it is crucial to her system. Lily deserved the chance and it was no ones fault it has not worked. Coach Moren has also made it clear in her pressers on YouTube that she needs better from Lily. I fully expect her to get a starting level Big Ten center in the portal this offseason that will not be on Mackenzie Holmes' level but on Kendal Bostic (Illinois) or Alexis Markowski's (Nebraska) level and average 14 and 7 or so which is what is needed. Also don't forget both Makalusky and especially Caffey at guard coming in as freshman have more athleticism than past recruits and are also ranked higher. I expect Caffey to see minutes right away. Also, expect Moren to get a solid portal class like she always does. Yarden, Shay, and Lenee (returning from season long injury) are starting level guards for next season. Just need a center and wing in portal who can slot in and team will be in very good shape to be better than this season.
  19. Lily is def not the ONLY problem. However, she is the biggest one and not having a starting level center in Moren's offensive system makes it quite tough to run and makes her stand out. The fact Moren has made what she has of this season without a good post player shows what a great coach she is. I think Moren in some ways feels very frustrated by Lily as she was handed keys to the kingdom to anchor that critical post position. No one expected her to be Holmes but everyone thought she was capable of making a leap forward to be a starting level Big Ten center similar to Markowski at Nebraska or Bostic at Illinois. 14 and 7 was very realistic but she has taken a step backwards. Its no ones fault and Lily deserved this opportunity, but has definitely done the opposite of making the most of it. Calling her out so much may not be right choice and I could go either way on that. However, if Lily didn't think she could make leap to be starter she needed to speak up so Moren could find one in portal especially knowing a good center is crucial to success in this system. If she thought she could and it just has not worked out just an unfortunate situation all around from all angles.
  20. I call it as I see it. I am a realist who can be negative or positive depending on what situation calls for. I think of myself as a realist.
  21. This could go very badly. Michigan is best team IU has played on road all season so far with two elite freshman. Unless Wolverines show their own inconsistency as a young squad and play poorly don't expect to get this one. I fully expect the Minnesota loss to start a string of four losses in five games and make Maryland a play-in game at 16-11 and 8-8 (unless they upset OSU at home which is best chance at victory outside of near certain Purdue win). Every time they get on a hot streak they go cold and every time they go on a cold streak they get hot. Everytime you think this team is more than a 9-11 seed in NCAA tournament a bad loss or good win shows you they are just that. This squad is an inconsistent flawed roster that Coach Moren has done the most she can with. It lacks a starting level Big Ten center which is crucial to making her system hum and its actually impressive she has them in tourney contention with such a glaring central piece missing.
  22. Aaron

    IU Softball

    Good recovery from bad loss on first day. 4-1 is not a bad weekend.
  23. 100% accurate and this year is exactly like 2018-2019 as I posted. It starts with getting a Big Ten level starting center in portal. Lily Meister not making the step forward everyone thought is biggest culprit but there are some other minor things as well. Moren's system relies on a center drawing attention to spring shooters open. She has the shooters but not the post player to draw attention. The fact Moren has them two non-Purdue wins from a sixth straight NCAA bid is actually fairly impressive given she is essentially trying to run an offense with a hand tied behind her back. I thought Lily would make leap forward to be a starting level center and just has not happened which is no one's fault and Moren has been really hard on her for good reason if you watch her postgame pressers online.
  24. This was an all systems failure today on both ends of court. Minnesota is much improved this year and very likely heading to NCAA Tournament. However, IU made them look far better then they are today. Every time you think this Indiana team is better or worse than a 9-11 seed in NCAA Tourney they have a game to show you they are just that. Don't be surprised if this starts four losses in five games with at Michigan, Purdue (This is 99% likely a win but not helpful) OSU, at MSU. Will make them 16-11 and 8-8 heading into the final couple of conference games. This is identical to 2018-2019 when IU sat on the bubble and had to beat a very solid Iowa squad at home and pick up an additional win against a bad Purdue team + win first Big Ten Tourney game to punch ticket to NCAA's. Team will almost certainly be in same spot now needing to beat Maryland who is very similar to Iowa, a bad Purdue squad, and first game of Big Ten Tourney to secure a March Madness bid. This athletic season at IU feels like 2018-2019 in almost every way with volleyball being pretty mediocre, women's soccer being awful, men's soccer winning Big Ten (although that soccer squad was much more a contender nationally), men's basketball having a long losing streak, women's basketball squeaking into tourney, baseball winning Big Ten, and softball having a really nice spring, All of these things have either happened or feel like they are very likely to occur. There might be similarities in some of the other sports as well but only looked at the major ones. Big difference is the struggle in men's basketball this time will lead to a new coach and for that we can all be thankful:).
  25. Aaron

    IU Softball

    Good response after the disaster in the first game of the season. Dominated since including killing a power-5 squad. Veteran team responded like I hoped to see.
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