Aaron

A little insight into each remaining team's numbers and especially IU's before I preview our match in full in detail later this week. UNC is only team not in top 12 in both Offense and Defense of the four teams competing. They are top offense in College Cup at number 2 in nation but posses just the 26th ranked defense. Akron is most balanced at 5 in defense and 6th in offense but also going through the MAC have weakest schedule but played extremely tough non conference games. As I have said treat them and form your opinions the exact same way you would a Gonzaga basketball team. As for IU and Stanford they are 1 and 2 respectively in defense and offense ranks 12 and 9 respectively. Basically UNC's D is only statistic that is not elite among the 4 teams but their offense is the best. If the adage is defense win championships UNC is in trouble but given how good their offense is they have just as good a chance as any. For IU though, given our defense we are probably better off facing an elite offense and a D that is a little more susceptible to allowing goals. With that said the best offense we have faced so far is no. 14 San Francisco (who's numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt) and Wisconsin at 17 both of which manged to score a goal on us. Next best offenses we saw are ODU at 41 and USF at 48 who we shut out. I trust our D but we will be taking on top 10 offenses no matter what so they will be tested like never before. As for defenses we have managed to score on some of the better ones putting up a goal each game on no. 10 MSU and no. 44 Notre Dame. We also scored 2 goals on no.7 New Hampshire and no. 31 UK while being shut out by no. 49 Maryland. What this shows is while the D is the strong point of our team it has been less tested than our offense by top competition which has succeeded for the most part in scoring on some pretty good defenses.

Not really. To me Stanford is every bit as good as Wake and the 2 time defending champs who have not allowed a goal in last years tourney or this one and only 9 all year (second to us in NCAA I believe). You lost Wake's high powered offense but gained Stanford's immovable defense. Either one is equally tough in different ways. I didn't necessarily expect Stanford to go into Wake and demolish them but it shows how good they are and either way you are getting a very elite team in the Cup.

Well for all the talk about the ACC they get 1 team and we get a nice balance of 1 Big Ten team in IU, 1 ACC team in UNC, 1 Pac 12 team in Stanford who still doesn't give up goals in the NCAA tourney and 1 MAC team in Akron who is the Gonzaga of college soccer year in and year out that recruits and has the talent of any major program and is well battle tested with an elite out of conference schedule and a decent "St Mary's" in their conference in Western Michigan. All in all you got all top 5 teams in the country in my mind and every team ranked 2-5 in my "power rankings" I posted earlier in this thread. Any of the 4 teams would be well deserving to hold a championship trophy and have had great years with really impressive numbers. Let's hope it's IU. Go Hoosiers!

Well UNC it is. As I said I think its probably better to take on a heavy weight than Cinderella. First off if we lose to UNC no shame in that but if you lose to Fordham you can't help but feel you took a bad loss to close season should things not go our way. Also as I said you want to be well prepared for a potential championship game against a top 5 team and Fordham does not do that. I will get into a much more Complete preview later in week but I will say UNC has best offense we have faced this season but a defense that is only slightly above average giving up basically giving up a goal a game so if we can shut down their attack which is a tall task they are somewhat easier to score on than MSU's great defense and we managed to do that.

Are we sure this is what we want? Sometimes having to take on Cinderella is worse than taking on a heavy weight. You are probably right you would rather play Fordham but at the same time we have not played enough teams at the top of college soccer (only top level teams we have played are ND, MSU and Maryland) which I think is part of why we came out so slow last night. To step back and have to play an inferior Fordham team may give us same issue of being shell shocked first few minutes if we make championship against Wake, Akron or Stanford who are all top 5 teams in my mind (we are as well).

Wow! What a night! What a game! What a crowd! Place was nearly full (5,450 was announced crowd which was 6th largest ever and largest ever for a tourney game I believe) and completely electric. I like to move around each half and sit on whichever side IU is trying to score on. I manged to do that tonight but finding a seat was tough which is a rarity at Armstrong which is a huge stadium by college soccer standards (6,500 capacity). It is the second largest crowd I have seen by far exceeded only by the sellout in early 2013 where we lost to UCLA in OT. There were plenty of people standing above bleachers on main side and along fence by field as well. Only vacant seats were small scraps of empty seats on main side and maybe first couple rows of bleachers on student side. Percentage wise is was probably as full as IU Duke game Wednesday and traffic leaving game was quite heavy around stadium which is a rarity for soccer. Onto the game. First off I may have underrated MSU in my power rankings early today and think they belong well inside top 10 now. Besides Maryland and Notre Dame the only team we have played on completely equal footing talent wise that can match us pound for pound. It was clear the first 10 minutes we were shell shocked by the massive step up in competition from first 2 tourney games and gave up the goal. We then asserted ourselves rest of half and missed several great chances. In 2nd half we continued to press and finally got the equalizer on a strange corner and I am still not sure how it deflected in. After we scored MSU pretty much dominated the rest of the game and had all the chances and we were probably lucky to get to PK's. In PK's I am still not sure if benching Muse for Caulfield in PK's against Wiscy was completely stupid or completely brilliant and will never know which it is. With the performance Muse had tonight it looks completely dumb but you could argue if MSU had footage of him trying to stop Wiscy's PK's they may have known his tendencies better and had better luck against him. As for us we actually did a great job taking our PK's for most part. I don't necessarily think we deserved to advance but given how many heartbreaking OT and PK losses we have taken in postseason last few years the soccer gods owed us one and they delivered. I congratulate MSU for a great season but also think they have enough sports that are uber successful and succeeding big time with this year (Basketball, Football, Volleyball to name a few) across their department versus IU who is having a terrible year sports wise in the major sports save for soccer so on that logic we deserve it more than them but you must earn it and glad we did. The scene after Muse saved the final PK was the best I have seen at the stadium. The entire Hoosier Army rushed the field and mobbed the team on the sideline and many people in the crowd stayed for a few minutes and some even longer. I half considered rushing the field myself but decided I was to old for that being almost 10 years out of college. I did go down to the fence line for the PK's and walked around it very slowly for the next 30 minutes to take in the atmosphere as everyone celebrated. I managed to get to the exit of the field where the players go to the locker room which they did 15-20 minutes later. The team was so elated and excited and it was awesome to see their faces as they walked in gradually a couple at a time. What stuck out was when Lillard half jokingly said to Panchot 'we knew we had it the whole time' and the few people around laughed. Shortly after Swartz jumped on someone and hugged them (I'm assuming his dad or another male family member) really hard and almost knocked them over. Seeing the smiles on the teams faces as they walked to locker room was maybe the coolest moment of the night that had many awesome moments. Overall this was by far the greatest game I have witnessed at Armstrong and very glad I went. I was at the elite eight match-up in 1997 when we beat USF 6-0 to go to College Cup but was barely 10 years old and have no memory of it except we won easily 6-0. I don't remember the goals, the crowd or the atmosphere in the slightest so glad I got a second chance to see IU advance to the College Cup 20 years later where I will fully remember the great memories for the rest of my life. Back to watching on TV Friday night for first time since PSU in first game of Big Ten Tourney but am all set to go Sunday if we win as long as weather is decent (Southwest is awesome with their no change fees and free cancellations allowing you to book way in advance and use credit within next year for a different time if IU does not make it and I fly plenty). Go Hoosiers! I am so elated right now!

Stayed 30 minutes after. Greatest game i have seen here. Saw some really cool moments after. Ill post a full recap of everything later when i get to my families house here in Bloomington where i am staying.

Were asserting and dominating now but got to put one in now and msu d almost as good as our. Didnt show up 1st 10 min and that may be difference. Unfortunately besides nd and maryland we have not seen this type of team. Again a completely full stadium and many first timers and team didnt show up for a few min. It seems to be a problem accross athletic department in big games Either way as much as it would be painful to lose tonight this yr has been up to iu standards but we have not had enough of these seasons recently. Moving forward though we must maintain this level and not let this be like 2012-2013 basketball team that was elite one yr took a painful loss in tourney and have not been same since

Briefly going into tonight's game here are "Aaron's" power rankings for both teams left in tourney and the season's top 20 so we get a feel what we are dealing with (this is a combination of RPI, Rankings, Talent, Teams Statistics and Record). Note in my mind top 10 are pretty equal talent wise to IU (besides Maryland who I had a really hard time ranking as they are top 5 talent but played terrible down stretch) than their is a gradual drop off from 10-20 and all teams are a step to a half step below IU and rest of top 10. Remaining 8 teams in tourney: 1. Wake 2. Stanford 3. IU 4. UNC 5. Akron 6. Louisville 7. MSU 8. Fordham For the season: 1. Wake 2. Stanford 3. IU 4. UNC 5. Akron 6. Louisville 7. Clemson 8. Notre Dame 9. Virginia 10. Duke 11. Georgetown 12. MSU 13. Western Michigan 14. Maryland 15. Butler 16. Michigan 17. Wisconsin 18. SMU 19. Air Force 20. FIU

IDS Preview Podcast of Tonight's game.

Very happy they introduced the soccer team at the Duke game tonight during a timeout and asked everyone to come out Friday. Hopefully this boosts attendance up even more.

Preview time. Let me start by saying I have watched or been at every game this year besides Santa Clara and the 2 opening games in South Bend. MSU was far and away the third best team on the schedule talent wise after Notre Dame and Maryland (who faded late but is still talented above all else). They are very much last year’s IU team with a really good D that slips up every so often and an offense that can have big games but is a little low on scoring usually. The one difference is their forwards Sierakowski and Jones have all their goals at 8 and 7 each respectively and they get almost 0 goal production from their midfield. By contrast our top 3 scorers that produced 17 goals were out of the Mid last year with Hyacinth not being a Big Ten level forward which is why we had the scoring issues we did. With that said the same general idea with just 27 goals scored in 19 games for MSU while giving up 12. We were at 30 and 16 last year by contrast but that’s pretty similar. Basically this year’s version of IU is taking on last year’s version of IU more or less. That basically means we have a 2017 top 5 IU team taking on a top 10-15 team (I am not referring to seeding here) talent wise which is pretty equal in soccer. With that said besides UNC, the other 2 games have equally talented top 5 teams facing off in UL Akron and Wake Stanford so we got a much better matchup than 2 of the 4 games with a team we are very familiar with. Apparently we are undefeated at home this round in our history according to an article by Jeremy Price in HT. I fully expect a 1-0 win by one team or the other and think it will probably be us given the home field advantage but you never know. I expect us to get 10-15 shots with 2 or 3 legitimate opportunities and at some point put one home. I expect them getting 5-10 shots with 1 or 2 really good opportunities they don’t convert. With that said it is soccer and anything can happen. There is one difference though from many previous games this year that will change for the better from here on out. So often we see teams park the bus against us. MSU and any college cup team besides Fordham has the talent to not park the bus (they are perfectly capable of playing very good D with their normal 4-5 defenders like we do) so I don’t expect anyone from here on out to play for a tie leading to more opportunities for the other team and a better game overall. Weather for forecast for now looks decent for this time of year with temps around upper 30’s and dry (this means though I will be fully bundled up with gloves and not posting except at halftime and after game). I hope many in Bloomington and Indy area are able to come out with it being the first time we have hosted this round in 13 years. I am hoping for a crowd of 3,000-4,000 which will be second behind Notre Dame Game earlier in year. Note you can’t play with numbers in postseason so if we want a crowd of 3,500 let’s say you have to have 3,500 tickets scanned at gate. In regular season you can artificial inflate the numbers a bit which is why 1,500 was announced crowd last weekend as 1,500 people came through gate. In regular season that same crowd would most likely be inflated and announced to 2,000-2,500 which is why a stadium can look fuller in the postseason for NCAA games but attendance announced lower. I do believe the Notre Dame game was so full they used the number of tickets scanned at gate (around 4,600) and am curious how close we can be to approaching that this weekend given the stakes. Update: Here is Todd Yeagley's weekly media availability (https://www.hoosiersportsreport.com/). He said a lot of good things but one thing that stuck out is he is hoping for a sellout Friday (6,500). That seems ambitious and doubt we get it but love that he is pushing for it. As I said above I would be thrilled if 3-4,000 show up. I also dug up our last Elite 8 attendance in 04 and it was 3,567 and expect something around the same although maybe the advent of social media pushes that number up a bit higher. Go Hoosiers!

I will preview this weeks game on Wednesday but first I had a little fun comparing this IU team to the previous 2012 National Championship team and I came away with pretty much every player on this team being the best at their position. I like this team a lot more but here is what I came up with. Comparing to 2012: 1. Defense I wouldn't trade Mehl, Lillard or Gutman for sure. I would probably replace Caleb Konstanski with Buckmaster but I am comfortable with either. 2. In goal I think Muse is the best we've had in terms of his freak athleticism but would feel comfortable with Soffner as well but edge to Muse. 3, In mid both teams were exceptionally strong. I'm certainly taking Moore, Dorsey and Thomas for sure. On the 12 team I loved Nikita Kotlov and Aj Corrado but was never a fan of Dylan Lax or Harrison Petts. With that said I would probably take Swartz, Dorsey, Thomas and Moore from current team and than throw Kotlov in for Panchot. Note if Gutjahr were healthy he would be in and Kotlov would battle Swartz for lasting starting spot but I am working with here and now for this excercise so Gutjahr is not available. 4. Forward I think Toye by next year will be as good as Zavaleta (remember Zavaleta only had 10 goals as a freshmen) but this compares 2012 to 2017 when Zavaleta had 18 so I am taking Zavaletta right now. So what we come away with a depth chart of: Defense: Mehl, Lillard, Gutman and Konstanski Midfield: Moore, Dorsey, Swartz, Thomas and Kotlov Forward: Zavaleta Goalie: Muse So basically in my mind 8 of the 11 positions are better on this team. How do others think the teams stack up? In conclusion I don't know if this is team is holding a trophy in 3 weeks but in my mind it is certainly better than the 2012 team and probably the best collection of players we have fielded since 04 championship. I thought this team was special from the moment I watched Dorsey, Toye and the new freshman against Louisville in Grand Park in August and nothing yet has changed my mind. Now lets finish this spectacular season with a title!

1. WF vs Stanford is fascinating. Stanford has 2nd best D in country (besides us) and Wake Forest best offense. I expect it to go to wire with one team winning 1-0 with late goal but not sure who. 2. UNC vs Fordham is a dud. This is the one game where I fully expect UNC to trounce and is the only matchup where one team has a significant advantage. 3. IU vs MSU is obviously a great matchup and I will provide the full preview later in week it deserves so I am not saying anything else. 4. UofL vs Akron is another heavyweight bout. Both teams have top 5 talent and I expect another game to the wire. Both teams have elite defense. Akron has elite O and UL less so but I still expect an even game as talent extremely equal and both compete at high level. Overall we got probably the 7 best teams in the country who are very elite teams and 1 team who does not belong. Any of the 7 not named Fordham would be well deserving to lift the championship trophy and I hope its IU.

Finally cleared our jinx round and get to Elite 8 for first time since 2012! First milestone win of the year where this team has finally done something most IU soccer teams of recent have not (only 3rd elite 8 since last National Championship in 04). Everyone in the crowd knew it to (great crowd by the way) and gave the loudest ovation of the season to the team as Muse took the goal kick in final 20 seconds. In terms of the match UNH gets major kudos. That is the best anyone has played against us this year. As I said in preview I was not sold on their D despite the good numbers but am now. They played the best D anyone has against us this year despite giving up 2 goals. They allowed seven shots all night which is maybe least I have ever seen us take when I have gone. Fortunately we converted 2 of the very few opportunities we did have (we had maybe 1 more good opportunity) which makes up for all the times we have had 30 shots in a game and failed to score. New Hampshire dominated second half and was even in first half. Fortunately our speed got to them the one time on the PK which was the difference. New Hampshire attack was not overly impressive but got us on a foul on the side just outside the box for the goal. They played the best game though in the Mid and on D anyone has against us this year. If I'm a New Hampshire fan (which I doubt they are many) they should be so proud of their team and I give them major kudos for leaving everything on the field but they just ran into a better team they were not good enough for. They maximized what was probably their best season in program history. As for us not our best game but not our worst. Tonight was more about what New Hampshire did than what we didn't do. They had best game plan of anyone against us and executed to perfection. With that said unlike so many IU teams of the past we didn't panic and got a win against a well discipline team. The last 11 minutes were some of the best defensively of the season after their goal as we didn't even come close to giving them an opportunity to equalize. I was nervous when it happened but D more than rose to task as it has all year. Also I'm so proud of our team for breaking down the D and scoring in 1st 10 minutes when UNH was clearly content to park bus and play for PK's which was huge and set tone for game. Onto the Elite 8 against an MSU team who is much like New Hampshire (very good disciplined D and mediocre attack) but at much higher level. I'll post a preview later in week but game is Friday at 7pm and I will definitely be there as should anyone else around Bloomington or Indy. Along with Duke game in Bball early in week (be at that as well) biggest athletic event we have hosted so far this year and biggest Soccer match we have hosted since 04 Elite 8. Let's get to College Cup in front of our home crowd!

Finally our speed got to UNH on the counter attack when Glass taken down in box for PK!

New Hampshire D fairly legit. Only question is if they get tired later as not sure they have seen our speed yet this yr. Very few opportunities but fortunately converted one of them. Much better crowd this week. 900ish was announced last week. Probably double that tonight.

Wow new hampshire was really intent on parking bus and did a great job clearing out our passes into box first 10 min but than a Thomas header off a cross broke them down. Curious what strategy for UNH is now since clearly they were playing for pks.

Let's look ahead to the next round now and preview: First off for us we have by far the best draw and somehow Wake Forest a much tougher one. I'll get to that in a few minutes but first let's take a closer look at New Hampshire who is No. 20 in RPI . Numbers look decent but they have played absolutely no one and even weaker competition than ODU. Their best win win is twice against no. 16 Dartmouth who has also played little good competition besides MSU and Michigan early and they lost. Their other decent win is no. 18 U mass who has not beaten anyone at all of note besides VCU who Butler took out this weekend in tourney on the road. However, glaring to me is 2 losses late in the season to no. 38 Umass Lowell. Lowell has played absolutely no one on our level either besides Akron who blew their doors off 5-0. The only other decent teams Lowell faced (if you can call them that) is the Albany team that beat Maryland in Pk's and lost twice to them as well as the Dartmouth team New Hampshire beat last weekend in PK's. In other words the only decent competition Lowell has beat is New Hampshire who lost to ever other halfway decent team they faced. Lowell has also taken a couple other really bad losses and have just a 10-7 record. This more than anything tells me New Hampshire is not worth anything and a team we should beat and they are not playing their best soccer right now. They also took a loss to an awful UMBC team and have ties with a really bad Harvard and Vermont team. Their offense is not eye popping with 31 goals in 21 games (less than ODU at an even lower level of competition) and defense looks great giving up 11 goals but gave up 2 goals each to both Lowell and Dartmouth recently and needs to be taken with grain of salt. It’s going to be fascinating to watch New Hampshire try to face a team in IU on the road that is probably 10 times better than anyone they have faced. Their only hope is probably holding us scoreless and try for PK’s but also working in our favor is UNH just beat Dartmouth in PK’s so we have video of them doing it and it’s so hard to win in PK’s twice in a row. With that said let’s try to win in regulation. This is a game we have to win and clear the round we have struggled in the last dozen or so years. This is by far the easiest matchup in this round we have had since Michigan in 08 (and this UNH team is not even as good as 08 Michigan probably) where we won big 3-0. It’s also arguably the easiest Sweet 16 team matchup of anyone in the tourney by far this year. I feel a little bad for Wake who is the number 1 seed and has a maybe the toughest draw left. They have a pretty good Butler team than most likely a really good Stanford team who doesn’t allow goals period in the tourney the last few years and is a legit title contender and won title last 2 years. Meanwhile we get a New Hampshire team that doesn’t belong in tourney much less in this round than MSU or Western Michigan who while very good are the weakest teams left if things go as they should and only teams maybe a half step below us in talent still that are seeded. Again if I’m Wake I’m furious at the draw I get as the 1 team relative to the number 2 team but we should be thanking the NCAA who gave us the easiest path of any team to the College Cup by far. Meanwhile on our side of the bracket if we get to College Cup Duke and UNC have fairly easy draws this round due to upsets but will have to face each other first most likely and both teams are better than either we will face in Elite 8. The remaining region has Akron and Louisville who are as good as IU. Louisville is the one of the teams who got a break matchup wise with Colgate upsetting Michigan while Akron has Wisconsin in what is probably the most even matchup of the weekend but I expect Akron to win a close one and face Louisville for right to face Stanford or Wake in College Cup.

Oh yeah forgot about Patberg who is a former 5 star and probably really good being from ND. Wise at Pitt was just a 3 and about on the level of most of IU's recruits recently. Our recruiting has absolutely gotten better (mostly mid level 3 star players besides Patberg, Penn and Berger). I know ratings don't mean everything (Buss was a 3 but everyone said she was way underrated and would be great which I have not heard about most of our other mid 3 stars) but they certainly are a guide and they are a slight step below other Big Ten team. With that said they are light years ahead of the Coach Jack days who had almost every recruit as a 0 Star mid to low major prospect (yes this is 100% correct). I am not dumping on the program but I am very much wait and see and worry what will happen when Buss and Cahill leave. There is a bit of instability with all the transfers but it might be all right. We will see.

Chattanooga like WKU is the best team in their conference and made NCAA tourney last year. Coached by former OSU coach Jim Foster who I have no idea why he was fired and the Mocs are the beneficiaries and have been to tourney every year since he has been the coach. I said that this was a really tough schedule on Friday after the win and I stand by that. Now with that said this is a game you should absolutely win and I still am not sold on the direction of this program when Buss and Cahil leave after this year. We do have a couple 5 star recruits the last couple years (Penn this year and Berger next) but I am still not sold on Moren at the head of the program and a lot of the talent while better is still a touch below Big Ten standards.

A little talk from Osterman and Chronic Hoosier about IU Soccer on their weekly Indystar podcast starting at 43:40.

Well hopefully I didn't jinx us but I figured out a relatively cheap way to attend the National Championship in Philly if we make it. Southwest (which I fly regularly) lets you cancel and re-use at a later date so I booked that relatively cheap and if we don't make it will use for other travel later. Rental car refundable until 24 hours before with all money back. Obviously the odds are not great but I'm not out anything if we don't.

Sorry to cold to type during game and been out until now. Just as I suspected ODU's D is not good at all and we had a field day with them and just missed putting in 3 or 4 more. Their attack is actually relatively impressive but our D is more than capable off shutting it down. 1st 2 goals were some off the oddest i have seen. That scrum off the corner where you were not sure if it crossed line first time was really messy. Than on the second the linesman put the offsides flag on Toye up on the breakaway but was over ruled by head ref. Everyone around me who knew the game didn't even cheer at first as we all saw the flag up right in front of us and assumed IU was offsides. Third goal was actually a normal one with a well done 2 on 2 break where Toye made a great pass to Panchot who slotted it home. Stars allign again next round with No. 15 Dartmouth losing to unseeded New Hampshire. Dartmouth's numbers while needing to be taken with a grain of salt given competition level are actually really impressive (while Dartmouth and New Hampshire's are merely solid at same level). Last 2 NCAA games attend for me are 3-0 wins over ODU six years apart. Now we get our easiest Sweet 16 matchup by far since we romped Michigan in 08. Thats the last Sweet 16 game I have attended (granted last year and this year are 1st Sweet 16 games we've hosted since then) so hopefully another good sign since I'll be there next Saturday night.

NCAA requires all postseason matches live streams be free so that's why you don't need your BTN+ subscription today. One thing you can thank the NCAA for despite all their problems. Before you thank them to much though remember they also stupidly require postseason matches site to be a 'neutral environment'. For Soccer fortunately all that means is when the PA Announcer does lineups he has to announce both teams with no excitement in his voice. For all intense intensive purposes despite the NCAA's rule, it's still the same home environment for soccer. It's not like Baseball where their stupidity makes you bat first everything other time at home and the 'neutral site' designation matters and you lose some home field advantage as result. Leaving for game soon. May tweet updates if not to cold. Otherwise I'll post a recap after.