RaceToTheTop

That is a new level of pessimism even for you.

My Big Ten WAR values: Purdue 21-2 WAR +9 Illinois 17-5 WAR +3.74 Wisky 16-7 WAR +3.49 Northwestern 16-7 WAR +2.13 Nebraska 16-8 WAR +1.37 Michigan St 14-9 WAR+1.14 Indiana 14-9 WAR +0.41 Iowa 13-9 WAR -0.09 Minnesota 15-7 WAR -0.21 Rutgers 12-10 WAR -1.01 Maryland 13-10 WAR -1.41 Ohio State 13-10 WAR -1.43 Penn State 11-11 WAR -2.75 Michigan 8-15 WAR -4.18

That would actually be an improvement from their current 0-23.

I mean at this point Scertz hasn’t even coached in the NIT. What’s Indiana State’s best win? Not saying he’s not a good coach but expecting him to get a quality power 5 job is premature. DePaul level jobs are probably his level of step up unless he Indiana State we’re to win a couple in the tournament or he has another year or two of sustained success.

Hear me out: Armond Hill to Detroit Mercy.

Man….why would anyone voluntarily take the Detroit Mercy job?

FWIW, Mike Davis is master of the six year fire. Was at IU for six years and then fired. Moved on to UAB, coached six years and was fired. Next up, Texas Southern....six years and then fired. He's now at Detroit Mercy and is in his sixth season....and his team is 0-23, so no doubt he is fired at the end of the year. That is impressive consistency.

Missouri down 13 at home at half to Texas A&M. A loss would put them 0-10 in conference.

Didn't realize X had transferred. How's the elbow look?

Derik Queen's announcement is the Keyser Soze of college recruiting.

Water finding its level.

Team A, B, C Team A NET 42 16-6 record Q1: 4-3, Q2: 3-2, Q3: 2-1, Q4: 7-0 SOS 83 Non-conference SOS 198 Team B NET 52 16-7 record Q1: 3-4, Q2: 3-3, Q3: 3-0, Q4: 7-0, SOS 44 Non-conference SOS 246 Team C NET 60 15-7 record Q1: 4-4, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 3-0, Q4 6-1, SOS 49, Non-conference SOS 307

Long post, ignore if you like. :) My WAR system calculates team value by comparing how likely it is for a team that would be 'the final at large team' to beat a team on their schedule based on venue (road, home, away). The 50% mark is equivalent to playing the 33rd best team at home, the 58th best team on a neutral court, or the 83rd best team on the road. Once the percentage chance of winning is figured for each game, the expected number of wins is subtracted from a team's actual number of wins to get a team's WAR. In essence, it does not take into account a team's efficiency -- it doesn't care about margin of victory, only whether a team won or lost -- but does use Pom's efficiency to calculate how difficult it was to beat an opponents. Home games above teams ranked higher than 265, neutral games against teams higher than 290, and road games above teams ranked 315 are all placed at a 97% win rate as I did find if it were set any higher that some teams that were mid majors that actually were in consideration for an a tournament bid were not accumulating enough WAR value to reflect that. Last night IU's game at Ohio State had a win expectation of 45% for a team that I would value as the last team to make the NCAA tournament.....so beating Ohio State earns a WAR of +0.55 while losing earns a -0.45. I have IU's wins valued at: (best to worst) at Ohio St +0.55 at Michigan +0.45 Iowa +0.45 Maryland +0.43 Ohio State +0.41 Minnesota +0.39 Morehead St +0.31 Wright St. +0.22 Louisville (N) +0.22 Harvard +0.11 N. Alabama +0.07 Kennesaw St +0.06 Florida Gulf-Coast +0.05 Army +0.03 IU's losses valued at (worst to best): Penn State -0.65 at Rutgers -0.53 Kansas -0.44 Purdue -0.39 at Nebraska -0.37 Auburn (N) -0.30 U Conn (N) -0.29 at Wisconsin -0.20 at Illinois -0.16 That's really a resume of not much on the high value winning end but not really too bad of value losses on the losing end. Overall I have IU at +0.41 for the year. Right now, I have the first team out of the tournament at +0.95. In the past, +1 in my system usually got you in but I did make some tweaks this season and I am anticipating it being more like a +2. If IU were to go 6-2, based on current numbers, they would end the regular season at +2.94. But what I value -- wins v schedule played -- isn't necessarily all that the committee looks at. IU's efficiency isn't good and the committee values that; IU lacks quad one wins and the committee values that as well. It could very well be that the committee would value IU going 5-3 with 2 quad one wins over 6-2 and only one quad one win.

I think Matta was asked but at that point did not feel like he was ready to get back into coaching. 9 months after that he has had a taste of being back in basketball and an offer to go back where he had been prior and a job that is lower pressure.

If you can't get excited about an 18 point road halftime comeback, not sure what to say.

He can not come in the game unless time had run off the clock since he previously was subbed for.

@Loaded Chicken Sandwich, you have your top 25 for the week?

Have to keep scorebook tonight so will miss the game. Last season, IU won every time I missed a game to keep book. This year I think we are 0-2 when I keep book (losses at Nebraska and Wisky).

I tend to stay away from the 'fire this guy' threads (Tom Allen was my one exception) because at the end of the day it doesn't do any good to root for a guy to get fired. Just continue to root for the team. In the end if/when Woody gets fired I'll be upset not because he was fired but rather because it means he didn't succeed and we weren't winning.

Based on?

Oregon, USC, Louisville, Indiana, Colorado, and Stanford all picked up 5 star recruits this past season. Oregon and USC picked up multiple five stars. I believe 2002 was the last time any of them were in the final four. Four of those teams didn't even make the NCAA tournament last season.

My current conferences with multiple bids: ACC (4): UNC (4), Duke (24), Virginia (28), Clemson (39) Big 10 (6): Purdue (1), Wisconsin (11), Illinois (17), Nebraska (38), Northwestern (41), Michigan St (42) Big 12 (10): Houston (3), Kansas (5), Baylor (19), Texas Tech (22), Iowa State (26), BYU (29), Oklahoma (30), TCU (36), Texas (44), Cincinnati (48) Big East (4): U Conn (2), Marquette (8), Creighton (25), Butler (37) Mountain West (6): San Diego St (12), Utah St (16), Colorado St (23), Boise St (31), New Mexico (34), Nevada (43) MVC(2): Indiana State (18), Bradley (49) Pac 12 (5): Arizona (6), Utah (27), Washington St (40), Oregon (45), Colorado (46) SEC (7): South Carolina (7), Tennessee (9), Alabama (13), Mississippi (14), Auburn (15), Florida (32), Kentucky (35) Last four byes: Northwestern, Michigan State, Texas, Nevada Last four in: Oregon, Colorado, Cincinnati, Bradley First four out: Memphis, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Providence

I want guys to return that fit what needs to be done to make this program better and are all in. Not going to speculate who they will be because I'm just a guy behind a keyboard with no intimate knowledge other than guesses. What is for sure is that X and Walker are gone as they are out of eligibility and that Ware likely is as he enters the draft. So at the minimum there are three openings next year. Likely more just based on law of averages.

Sampson's team was 21-11 his first year. The next year they were 22-4 at the time he was bought out and then went 3-4 the rest of the way. But I'm not going to put that 3-4 on Dakich as it really was a result of Sampson's actions that lead to the team hitting the shitter at the end of the year.

You think we can hold them to 49 in the first 30 minutes? I kid, I kid. Just have to hope for things to get better because I don't have any control over anyway.