Southside

there's plenty of good in categories. there's also plenty of bad. you can't just ignore all the bad for the good. we have a very unique resume. it will be interesting. we need some help from others (losing ahead of us in NET), and we need as few spoilers (from typcial one team conferences) as we can get.

here's straight from the NCAA site.... i also forgot to mention road record ( which is 2-9). in addition, they use team sheets which use other rating/ranking systems (outside of net) which factor in conf and non conf records. it's listed in the below url. http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections Selection Criteria The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing. The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin. Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process: An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings. Complete box scores and results. Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents. Imbalanced conference schedules and results. Overall and nonconference strength of schedule. The quality of wins and losses. Road record. Player and coach availability. Various computer metrics.

The committee looks at conf record, overall record, overall SoS, non-conf SoS, and NET. a conference record of 6-12 and a non-conf SoS of 196 are just two indicators. They will be points of discussion. To say they mean nothing is silly.

The ratings I used are NET rankng/ratings. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings There are 32 auto bids. Then 36 at large are selected. The committee uses NET as a tool to select the 36 at large. NET is not the end all be all (it's not auto), but it's suppose to be the guiding tool. I've listed what would likely be the 36 at large teams as of yesterday's NET ratings. I also listed likely auto bids (they have to play the CC), and also potential conferences where we could see spoilers (leagues that should only get one, but could get 2) that would hurt IU's chances. Do you argue just to argue?

so here's the stack based on current NET ranking (does not include our MSU win). The MSU win by itself likely would not put us past the current cut line. I need to look at the future opponents of those ahead of us. Regardless, I still think we need some help. It's also likely that we won't start day one in the CC, which would make it harder to attain 4 more wins, but would help with NET, and potentially H2H win over competing bubble teams. Anyway, gives you a good idea of who to cheer against. 32 Auto Bids (Team / Current NET Rating) ---------------- WCC Gonzaga 1 ACC Virginia 2 AAC Houston 4 SEC Kentucky 5 B10 MSU 6 B12 TTU 10 MAC Buf 16 (spoiler if they lose CC) CoCon Wofford 18 (spoiler if they lose CC) MWC Nevada 19 (spoiler if they lose CC) BigE Marquette 21 A10 VCU 37 OVC Belmont 45 (possible spoiler if they lose CC) ASUN Lipscomb 46 (Possible spoiler if they lose CC) WAC New Mex St 51 Note - I stopped auto bids at smaller conferences post NET 58, as there would not be a potential spoiler 36 At Large (Team / current NET rating) ------------------------------------------------ Duke 3 TN 7 NC 8 MI 9 VT 11 PU 12 LSU 13 ISU 14 Wisc 15 KS 17 MissSt 20 Cinci 22 FSU 23 Aub 24 Lou 25 Maryland 26 Vil 27 KSU 28 FL 29 UCF 30 NC St 31 WA 32 Iowa 33 Utah St 34 Baylor 35 TX 36 Ole Miss 38 St Mary's 39 OSU 40 Clem 41 OK 42 TCU 43 Syracuse 44 Fruman 47 Nebraska 48 Bama 49 --------------cut line----------------- PSU 50 Murry St 52 Memphis 53 Butler 54 MN 55 Creighton 56 Temple 57 INDIANA 58 IU Future opponents ----------------------------------- IL 94 Rutgers 104

i think we would want to play on day 1 of the BTT. we do play the 2 teams immediately ahead of us. playing day two would pit us vs OSU or MN as it stands right now. Then vs MSU or PU. if we need to get to 19 (that was other's magic number not mine), then starting day 2 is a more difficult road. beating IL, means we swept them, so we'd own the tie break. beating rutgers would mean split (not sure how tie breakers work).

they lost earlier this week, and they just had a bad home Q3 loss to Rutgers today, so they will drop. they play @Wisconsin and @Nebraska. They'll lose one, maybe both. They could possibly have 4 straight losses. Is 33 to 51 that big of a drop considering? honestly i don't now the weights of losses with NET, but in any other poll, 3-4 straight losses could easily mean a 17 spot drop. and, we could just as easily end up playing OSU or MN instead of Iowa in that spot.

No, it's not. currently - @IL is NET 94 (Q2) Rutgers at home is NET 104 (Q3) NW (likely Round 1) Neutral is NET 93 (Q2), and it actually could be a worse team. Iowa (likely Round 2) Neutral is NET 33 (currently Q1), but just lost (so will drop), and is likely to lose at least one, of their remaining games (both on the road). In short, Iowa would turn into a Q2. ---------- and To add, NW plays at IL this week before us. The winner won't be helped that much, but the loser is going to drop, possibly to Q3. Rutgers plays PSU, another game that really only hurts a possible match up for us.

my initial point is, we are out now. is 3 wins over bad teams at the bottom of the conference (IL, Rut, likely NW in the BTT), + a win over a decent but mid conf team like Iowa (who will not be ranked, has lost their last two, and will lose at least one more) be enough to get us in? that's not a lock to me.

some definitely are. some take it seriously, and it's their profession. i'll typically side with some of the talking heads who have a proven track records over fan board guys who pretend to know it all. right now, by every rating/ranking system, we're outside of the 36 at large bids. we're unique though. is 3 wins over bottom of the conference teams + 1 win over a mid conference team enough? we'll see. I think we need some help with others losing. if you feel that 19 is a lock, great.

like I said, i hope 19 is enough. i pointed out what the talking heads were criticizing (our non-conf SoS, and our conf record). then people acted like our NC SoS was good, it's not.

UGA up 4 with 15.1 left

kenpom has our non conference sos as 196th (last column) https://kenpom.com/ 3 additional in-conference games does pretty much nothing, or nothing to non conference SOS.

non-conference SoS rank is 134th... https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/sos?&_3:col_1=1&_3:col_2=1 we're 35th now. that will drop a bit with IL and Rutgers.

hope all of you are right. i think our weak OoC schedule will be used against us., and 8-12 conf record is hard to dismiss. i think we will need some help from bubble teams losing with a 19 win record.

IMO it would take more than 2 BTT wins. Right now NW would be our 1st round, Iowa 2nd round. Then you're looking at scUM likely, and then either MSU or PU. 3 wins starts the conversation.

love the effort we've been seeing lately, even in the losses. a little too late but very happy the team didn't just quit on CAM aside from shiteing the bed @MN, every game has been competitive since the 1st MSU win two more reg season games and we're 17-14. right now the road in the BTT looks like NW-Iowa-scUM-PU/MSU. We could definitely win two. any more would put us back in the conversation.

I said early this year that we were going to have issues shooting, both perimeter and definitely the 3. We simply don't have the shooters, and that likely doesn't change next year. That said, I did not expect much this year, but I did expect more than 12th in the Big10 given we had Morgan and Langford. The injury bug hit us hard the first half, so I do give Archie some slack. I've seen some great performances, gutty/gritty performances, some understandable performances (due to injury), and some real duds. In short, there's a reason to be optimistic with Archie, and also a reason to question. I'm giving him another year. Until then, I'll just try to enjoy. But I do agree, if Archie doesn't make it, we need to be willing to spend in tune with expectations of the program. Not just on the coach, but also on facilities. There's only a few coaches I'd throw the kitchen sink at. For those that want a new coach, and are willing to spend top dollars, who are you going to go after (that would leave), and how much are you willing to spend on them.

time matters though. how many people think of Princeton as football giants based on their early domination of CFB?

probably should have posted the below in this thread instead of the holy **** thread. overjoyed because of the heart i saw. overjoyed because it showed Archie hasn't lost the guys. F the injury bug. we just can't get a break. Officiating sucked (both ways) as bad as I've seen it this year. The O moves better without Archie's scheme centering around Morgan. I'm not saying Morgan is bad (he's F'ing awesome). I'm saying Archie needs to run the offense differently using Morgan.

it's not. but it's been 30+ F'ing years. if i had to set a magic number, it would be 15. at most 20. we're well past both.

overjoyed because of the heart i saw. overjoyed because it showed Archie hasn't lost the guys. F the injury bug. we just can't get a break. Officiating sucked (both ways) as bad as I've seen it this year. The O moves better without Archie's scheme centering around Morgan. I'm not saying Morgan is bad (he's F'ing awesome). I'm saying Archie needs to run the offense differently using Morgan.

IU is not a blue blood anymore. maybe a blue hair. IMO, you're not a blue blood if you go 30 years without a NC.

shitty possession. romeo be romeo

regardless of outcome... so happy. i've seen heart. and that tells me Archie hasn't lost them. sick with injuries this year.