sierracoach

followed by an on-the-spot extension by Glass?

in all honesty, TC might flourish at a "football-first" school like Mizzou. At a BB school like IU (or UK, UCLA, Duke, UNC) I fear he's simply in over his head.

if we're thinking NBA guys, I expect it'll probably be at least another year anyway on Donovan (& longer, if ever, on Stevens). Hoiberg, on the other hand, may well be looking for a job within the next few weeks for all I know, but I'm not sure what I think about him as a college coach (or another ex-NBA guy, Enfield).

As I already mentioned above, Crean's contract expires in June of 2020. And the buyout drops down to $1 Mil on July 1st. If Glass were going to extend Crean last year, I think it likely would've been in the spring, probably as soon as the season was over. I find it hard to imagine that Glass would even contemplate a change unless he felt he had his replacement "in the pipeline" and I don't see any of the big-name guys being interested at this time (my definition of big-name being Stevens, Donovan and Marshall, and I fear Marshall may have "too much Kevin Wilson" in him to make Glass comfortable). So unless someone like Self is bored at Kansas, that would leave the up-and-comers like Holtmann, Mack and A. Miller. Any or all of whom might be interested, but all with records pretty similar to Crean's at Marquette (and without a FF). In which case Glass is faced with either gambling with retaining and extending Crean, or gambling on one of these guys being able to improve on Crean's IU record. Who knows, maybe Self (or Wright?) feels he's done all he can at his current stop and wants a new challenge. Maybe Stevens has an epiphany and decides "I don't want to wait for LeBron to retire" or Donovan says "already lost Durant and may lose Westbrook to the Lakers in 2018; wonder if any college program needs a new head coach?"

hard for me to see any reason (maybe more money?) for Sean Miller to leave UA for Indiana, given how he's recruiting out there. I've heard Archie might be waiting on Matta to retire so he can become tOSU's head coach, but of course that's just speculation at this point. Nothing against Mack or Holtmann, but in all honesty their resumes are about what Crean's was at Marquette. I want a "sure thing" if and when Crean's replaced, and I don't know if any of the guys who fit that description would actually be available. Glass may have to stick with Crean and continue to insist that IU's (somehow) still "elite" or just roll the dice with Holtmann, Mack or Archie Miller (if he's still at Dayton by then). Or maybe Jacobson would get a look; not sure what I think about him.

if you mean juniors and sophomores, yes. But honestly, at this point I think any extension (either last spring or this coming spring) would essentially be symbolic anyway. Crean's been at IU long enough for Glass, recruits, boosters, and fans to know what he is as a coach. I personally don't think an extension will help him recruit or remove any of his deficiencies as a coach, but I fear Glass does think that way.

I assume the reason no extension happened last off-season is because at that time Crean still had 4 seasons left on his contract (through 6/20/2020) and Glass saw no need for an extension then. Once this season's over, Crean would thus presumably have only 3 seasons left and that's why I expect an extension next spring in order to "help him recruit." Only way I don't see that happening is if Crean's team doesn't even get an NCAA tournament bid--and even then I wouldn't be shocked to see an extension. If it does happen, I hope to God it's not as extravagant and over-the-top as the last one, and that the $1 Mil buyout (after 7/1/2017 IIRC) can be reduced even further, maybe to $500,000. Not saying I like or agree with this scenario, only that I suspect it's the most likely one at this point in time. And I'm unapologetically selfish about TC's hypothetical replacements--I'm not very interested in Nored, or even Holtmann, Mack, Jacobson or A.Miller. I want a "home run hire" that says, for maybe the first time in 16 or 17 years, IU Admin "got it right." Unfortunately, for me about the only guys who fit that category are Stevens, Donovan, T. Bennett and S. Miller, and I don't know if any of them would be genuinely interested. So IU either gambles on extending Crean or gambles on someone from the Holtmann, Mack, Jacobson or A. Miller category. Also, from what I've heard, Gregg Marshall and Glass might not be a good fit, philosophically speaking. And GM's already making almost as much as Crean does, so I don't know how much ($4 Mil a year? $4.5?) it might take to get him interested. Not sure how he'd approach recruiting at a (formerly?) elite program like IU's, either.

As I understand it, Westbrook's extension still allows him to opt out for free agency in 2018 (one year later than his former contract) and if OKC doesn't sign Griffin or some other free agent to replace Durant, I fully expect Westbrook to strongly consider leaving for the Lakers. The question then would be, does Donovan still want to coach the Thunder without both Durant and Westbrook? Dunno, but it might at least nudge him towards consideration of a return to college BB, if he felt he had a better shot at another NCAA title than an NBA title down the road. Maybe he'd be perfectly happy continuing to coach in the NBA even knowing his team had little shot (without Durant and Westbrook) of overtaking the Warriors and Spurs. But I'd definitely want to know that for certain if I were a college AD looking to hire a new BB coach in 2018 or thereabouts.

of the two, I think Donovan might be more inclined to consider returning to college coaching in the next year or two than Stevens, given the likely immediate futures of the 2 franchises after Durant's exit. Hoiberg may be looking by then too, but I'm not completely sold on him as a college coach. I doubt if any change is made, or even contemplated, until 2018. Which means Glass may feel he needs to give TC a (hopefully limited) extension at the end of this season to "help recruiting" etc. (sigh) I think the A.D. is concerned enough about public relations and media reactions that he won't remove Crean one year after a conference championship unless there's a complete implosion. Even if Anunoby, Bryant and Blackmon all leave. Holtmann, A. Miller, Mack are all good coaches but not home run hires, which is what IU would desperately need if and when Crean's replaced (i.e., Stevens, Donovan, T. Bennett, S. Miller, maybe G. Marshall). I don't think T. Bennett or S. Miller would be interested and I'm not sure how Marshall and Glass would get along, If the rumors are true that Glass & the Admin don't want another coach who's "bigger than the program" (not sure why not; that description fits K, Self, Cal, Pitino, Wright, Williams too, and those programs are doing OK) then perhaps in 2018 IU will hire Holtmann or A. Miller and hope for the best. Assuming they're still coaching at Butler and Dayton in 2018, that is. For all I know Holtmann could be at Illinois and A. Miller at Ohio State by then....