MartintheMopMan

My biggest fear in the BTT is for us to look like Iowa does today. I am certain they wish we did not have the BTT right now.   THAT INSANE TOM CREAN COMMERCIAL JUST PLAYED! I can't believe it's real.

I mean like, this is a joke right? They switched jerseys before the game?   I can't get over how bad Iowa looks. Too bad for Minnesota they didn't get to play this game instead.

Iowa has serious problems down the stretch.

Failed the ACTs and had to sit out a year when he started. His recruitment is actually really interesting, I read a good article on it awhile back, I'll try and dig that up.

Our Final Four and Championship Game appearances are more recent.   But, they're a consistent Elite Eight team, which people like. Having been through this drought with Indiana, I can see why people wish we had their kind of success, but if it's not going to translate to a banner then it's a waste and just enough to give you hope that next year you'll get over the hump. When people talk about wanting Sean Miller, it makes me nervous because I don't know if he is the kind of coach who could ever get over the hump unless a lot of things fall right in those last games. He is a great overall coach and can build a very good team with very good players, but in individual matchups he is a little lacking.

Higher seeds have it today: Michigan, Iowa, OSU, Wisco.   Michigan v. NW gave me some trouble, because Northwestern certainly isn't a bad team this year. But, Michigan is playing for an NCAA berth they may still not get and Northwestern is playing for an NIT berth they may get anyway, so Michigan is more motivated. Plus, Michigan matched up well against them a couple weeks ago when they played except for the brief period where they didn't. That was at home, but eh, I think they can carry a few hours south. I would be surprised to be wrong on my others, but can see Michigan going either way.

Yeah, I wouldn't worry yourself with it. It's mostly just a thread letting people work feelings out on their own. We just did all that great digging on April the other day and I would have hated for it to go to waste!

The players you hang around don't have very good info since he didn't play at a junior college.   Anyway, Jeremiah April. Here are the threads about him, a lot of them about why he isn't getting more minutes, including rumors (that I've heard elsewhere) about his not meeting practice expectations. Then, from the Transfers and Targets thread, a tweet from about two months ago when April visited Georgetown (and the link to the post there where I ask where April is because he is not playing at a junior college).   So, cool.   https://btownbanners.com/topic/5176-2014-c-jeremiah-april-to-iu   https://btownbanners.com/topic/7555-jeremiah-april-to-transfer   https://btownbanners.com/topic/6776-april   https://btownbanners.com/topic/6037-april-still-in-boot   https://btownbanners.com/topic/5880-jeremiah-april-in-boot   https://btownbanners.com/topic/9074-hoosier-transfers-and-recruiting-targets/page-27#entry250377  

Thanks for sharing '66. That was a great article. I knew there was some story behind how OG started playing that was interesting, but I couldn't remember what, I'm glad this article filled in the gaps. And it's cool hearing some about how Crean acts v. other coaches act from the kids. I feel like we don't see that much.   But man, think about the "What if?" if he had gone to Iowa instead.

I know. But, the previous unbalanced schedule was better. It certainly wasn't perfect, but we had what, 7 home-and-homes and 4 either/ors instead of 6 and 6? I hate playing a team only once in the conference season, now we do it for almost half of the conference teams.

Let's not forget it started on Wednesday at 4:30. So, people like Treesh who would attend if they were nearby and could score some cheap seats aren't going because they're still at work and no one from Minnesota or Illinois is using 3 vacation days to travel to Indy to watch their team lose in an early round. Students won't even come because they have class.   This stupid 5 day BTT is a hot circle of garbage. It took the worst day of the BTT, made it even worse, and then moved it earlier in the week. Anyone who shows up is really dedicated to their team, loves basketball and works odd hours, or stupid.   Personally, I blame the fact that we let that crapbox Rutgers into the Big Ten. Yet another thing they ruined with their existence. Oh, how is the barely unbalanced schedule going where we play almost all teams twice? OH WAIT! THANKS AGAIN RUTGERS!   I would politely ask Rutgers and Nebraska to leave the Big Ten. If the "but, Nebraska was already here" crowd is too powerful to keep Maryland, then I'll accept losing Maryland if it means getting rid of Rutgers. They don't belong here and no one wants them here. I hate Rutgers.   And it's not even a fun rivalry hate where "oh you guys beat us in Basketball, I totally hate you!" and maybe we can satisfy it later. I hate their existence and presence in the Conference.

April is the hardest to tell of all of them in my opinion. Did we bump his thread? He has like 5 threads actually, I'll bump them tonight, I think I have them open.   His tape and limited minutes showed he had ability, he had been playing for a fair amount of time, and he had some real schools sniffing after him, not just us. But, he hung out in the walking boot of doom for awhile, then we kept hearing about how he was not meeting expectations in practice, then he was gone. Word on the street is he just took a visit to somewhere legit too.   I have trouble believing he was Creaned just for his scholarship because he wasn't good enough. If so, we wouldn't have Priller still. I think there was a personality clash that made him never be a good fit which combined with not having PT to make it so he didn't stick around. I still think we'll see him play in the Tourney before his eligibility runs out (unless he quit basketball entirely).   That's the problem with having this argument about "potential" now anyway. It's one thing with graduated players, but kids with another 2-3 years of eligibility left are a different story. Look at the developmental changes Z3 or Maximus made with the latter half of their eligibility. I don't think it's unreasonable to think one of the transfers with potential will do the same wherever they end up.

To answer your direct question, yes it is.   KenPom has conference play only stats for each team. They are disfavored for this kind of thing because, well mostly because it's a lot more work to get them. You can export the data for his main stats in one click but he does not have easily accessible conference only data. It would have to be manually entered into a spreadsheet. Also, they're disfavored because they're not adjusted stats.   Overall though, there is no need to game the numbers. These statistics simply are not useful for predictive purposes; they can tell us we're less likely to win than others, but they can't tell us if we'll win. The reason teams with top defenses usually win is those teams win each of their match-ups.  Indiana's defense is relevant to the point it changes whether we win or lose an individual game. For any given game, a team with a better defense has a greater probability of winning, especially in later rounds as the gaps between the teams reduce.   I'll tell you this much either way. The sheet linked above and under discussion is from before last year's Tourney and was created and designed to isolate the common traits of winning teams in order to better predict Champions, Cinderellas, and Final Four teams. How did it do? Not so good. Duke was not in the pool of 14 potential champions because it had an AdjDE of 57. So, don't let statistics make you think any result is impossible. With the right match-ups, we can certainly be champions. With the wrong ones, we can hope for any given 40 minutes.

Yeah. KenPom's free stats are through the last game played.

Yes, but you stopped talking ranking and started talking AdjDE and AdjOE, which is what my comment was about.   Also, Duke was 57th a week from now last year and improved to 12th during the tourney.

That's why I started with that note about the difference in defensive efficiency this year. That UNC team was ranked 49th in 2009, but would be ranked 14th this year. 4 Champs and 30% of Final Four teams have better AdjDE than the best AdjDE this year.   There are serious relative differences which make the stat less reliable.    Again, it shows the unreliability of these stats for predictive purposes. Our offense is currently better than every Final Four team but 3. Illinois 2005 (runner-up), UNC 2009 (champs), Kansas 2008 (champs).   I'd say the change in shot clock time makes a big difference for the stats themselves.

So, interesting note on the spreadsheet, defenses are universally worse this year. No team has won a championship with lower than a 94.25 adjusted D (UNC 2003) which was ranked 38th that year. That would be good for 14th this year.   4 of the last champions had a better adjusted D than Witchita State (best right now).   There have been 6 Final Four teams and 2 runners up ranked 67th or lower in Adjusted D (about 12%).   Of the 13 champs, 3 were ranked 1 overall, 5 ≤ 2, 6 ≤ 4, 10 ≤ 5. Then it immediately drops and the other 4 teams were 7, 13, 20, 25.   We always talk about how every team was top-40 in adjusted D, but more importantly, all but 3 (Duke 2005, Syracuse 2003, Connecticut 2011) were top 18. 6 were top 10.   On offense, Connecticut is the only team without a top-18 offense to win a championship. 6 were top 10.   Of the Final Four, only two champions had the top defense in their Four (Duke 2010 and Kentucky 2012).   If these stats held true, smart money all goes for: Virginia and Kansas followed by Villanova then Oklahoma. I’d focus on Kansas or Villanova in particular.

I'm torn between being happy we are getting started today and still hating that we have Wednesday games.   Plus, I can't get down for the early rounds. I've seen these teams play each other before and it was ugly, do I think it will be less ugly today?   Minnesota and Rutgers losing is such a foregone conclusion that it's not even a contest.

Nailed it.    

I forgot Oregon was a top 2-seed. I was hoping if we snuck onto the 2 line and they put us far from home we might end up in Spokane and at least I could go up and watch, but no way unless Oregon messes up bad in the Pac-12 tourney. They'll definitely be location favored up there. Oh well. Probably safe to take that time off my work calendar now that I realized it.

Someone posted a super cool spreadsheet of Ken Pom's pre-tourney data and how far each team went yesterday, but it was in some slightly random thread. So... whomever it was would you mind reposting it here? I can't seem to find it this morning.

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All right, so I'm at a computer, let me expand a little on what I said:   I think overall, the previous season was bad. It was bad storytelling and bad writing. Character's actions did not make sense given their characterization and plotlines drifted in confusing and stupid directions. It's not that they change things from the books, it's that they change things and make them worse.   While I've watched the first four seasons dozens of times, I've only seen this one almost twice, so bear with me if I miss some details. Storyline by storyline...   Sansa - Littlefinger would not ever place such a valuable piece as Sansa in the hands of the Boltons. Nor would he use her in such a low value plan. She's the heir of the North and arguably, the Queen in the North, and he's going to set up some confusing plan to barely gain advantage? And be so callous toward the girl who supposedly looks just like the girl he obsesses over? No way. And how is he traveling so quickly?   Brienne - Oh my gosh, her finding the girls is so dumb. Her leaving with Arya is dumb. Her leaving without Sansa is dumb. What is the point of keeping her character around to keep doing dumb things?   Boltons in general - Why can the Boltons just accomplish whatever they want without effort no matter how unrealistic it is? 20 good men versus Stannis' army. Oops, Stannis didn't set out a perimeter, dig pits, or set spikes for his camp outside of the enemy castle. What?   Stannis - Stannis would not burn his daughter for something so minor. Melisandre would not ask for her for something so minor. 3 leeches of king's blood can kill kings (oh unless they're Grey...) but a little girl full? Eh, maybe stop some wind.   Jon - Hey, be a little subtle about Olly. And the reasons for stabbing Jon are dumb and ignore the entire point. Plus, Jon's election was beyond cheesy.   Arya - Is Trant a bad guy? I can't tell. Can you have him say too old again?   Dany - These are the best warriors in the world! Lolz, no they aren't.   Bran - Is no longer on the show I guess.   Dorne - Literally all of Dorne is nonsense.

I did not enjoy season 5 outside of Hardhome. It's not that it's different even, it's just not been good.

He'll be back Sunday.