hoosierbgh

I've never been a fan of Bennett, far from it actually, but I thought he was poised to take UVA to perennial deep run contender status with a natty on the resume and both Coach K and Williams having retired and clearing the path.

Virginia doing Virginia things.

Edey improved a lot from last year in both playing ability and stamina. Last year he wouldn't have been able to do what he has done this year. I also don't doubt that he will shoot a lot of free throws. The problem is that he only has 5 fouls per game and he will undoubtedly be called for more of them than the ridiculously low number called on him in conference games. He won't be called for every offensive foul or push in the back while rebounding but he does both so frequently that it won't take many more calls to alter the way he can play or reduce his time on the floor.

If I were Purdue, I wouldn't want to play Duke or Marquette again now. I'm not so sure they would want to play Gonzaga now either. Purdue is/was built to compete well in the B1G and were fortunate to catch Marquette, Gonzaga, and especially Duke early in the year. Every team has flaws but as 1 seeds go, Purdue has more than most. If the supporting cast doesn't show up, then Edey will need to score 30+ for them to have a chance. That is a big load for him to carry, especially when he's not likely to get quite so friendly a whistle as he did in the B1G. It is also a major concern when the supporting cast is as easy to control as this one is.

Absolutely! Hopefully, he is not only in attack mode but also in "get every miss and slam it home" mode as well.

Well, yeah they're a one trick pony where that one trick is highly dependent on B1G style officiating to stay in the game. They also depend on two freshman guards that have no clear advantages over most teams they will play and do not handle pressure well.

Those teams also typically had enough size to contain Race and Reneau at the same time. I don't think that is the case with Kent St. Also, forcing TJD into taking tougher than normal shots is all well and good but can Kent St. then also manage to keep TJD, Race, and Reneau from getting a bunch of offensive rebounds on top of defending them. I could easily see where IU's best offense against Kent St. may well be to get the ball on the boards and have the bigs go to work.

Yes, to a degree and within the assumptions of the model.

IMO, the worst thing about that article from an IU perspective is that it is almost entirely about Kent St., they throw a brief mention of JHS in at the end and don't even mention TJD. Basically a slight by omission. If it gets more people to tune into the IU game, I'm not going to complain.

It'll probably be a fairly close game, I'd be surprised if it wasn't back and forth for much of the game, but what is this 4 points estimate based on? Betting, which is influenced by public opinion? Metrics, which are likely somewhat inflated for Kent St. and deflated for IU based on opponents played? The fact remains that IU hasn't yet lost to a Kent ST. level team nor has Kent St. beaten an IU level team yet this season. Doesn't mean it can't happen or the game won't be close but it does mean that the predictions that it will happen are based on other things than the demonstrated performance of either team. I'd say your predictions are pretty accurate except you forgot the post game predictions of the sky is falling if we lose and the predictions of hanging another banner or criticism of the margin of victory if IU wins.

Except, this is not exactly accurate. IU has played poorly enough to lose to Penn State and Northwestern twice each and played a closer than it should have been game against Minnesota. Those are the worst games IU played all year based on quality of the opponent and performance and both Northwestern and Penn State are way above the level of Kent St. Minnesota probably is closer but at least they were at home and the barn is a weird place to play. In the B1G, an off night is likely to get IU beat. In the MAC, an off night would likely mean IU won by less than 10. Kent St. may win but it will take the best game they've played all year, the worst game IU has played all year or a combination of both. There's no reason to assume any of that is all that likely.

No, actually they haven't. They shown that they can lose to much better teams than Kent St. on an off night but they've pretty much curb stomped any team close to Kent St.'s level. Nor has Kent St. shown that they can beat a team of IU's level. That doesn't mean that IU can't lose but it is not nearly as likely as people want to make it seem.

The way I look at it, Ken St. needs to either go supernova from 3, force a ton of turnovers or some combination of the two to have a realistic chance to win. While that is possible, I don't think it is likely. Ultimately, Kent St. will have a lot more problems to deal with in guarding IU than IU will in guarding them. It's not a team that IU should take lightly but not a team to be feared either.

If Edey has to reach down, way down, to elbow his defender out of the way is it still a foul on his defender? Asking for FDU.

It'd be a much better something if they both lost their opening round games... preferably by double digits.

Who the refs are for Purdue's game(s) and how they officiate Edey matters almost as much as the opponent. It probably won't matter the first game but I'm not sure any game after that is winnable without typical B1G officiating.

I trust the current staff. They've shown they are willing to give kids a chance but will cut ties when necessary. At the end of the day you kind of have to because chemistry can be just as much of an issue with incoming freshman as transfers so they're going to be making those decisions regardless. In some ways, I can see it being a little easier knowing what to expect with a transfer that has already played a year or more of college ball. I'm also not too worried about anyone corrupting freshman like Newton and especially Cupps.

Painter lost interest when Stuhoo said this kid was mobile. Painter prefers bigs best described as stationary but will occasionally accept one that is merely plodding.

Team chemistry is always a concern and IU definitely needs the right fit as well as talent but they need bodies. The spot is only a waste if we were to miss out on a better fit/talent for this upcoming year. Any that don't pan out won't be around to take up a scholarship for another year.

Leaving roster spots open was a silly idea when Archie tried it and it is an even sillier one now. They need to build a full team this year and rebuild it again next year as necessary. Decent transfers contribute more than all but the best freshman so it is going to take a mix of transfers and talented incoming freshman every year.

They are due for that kind of karma after almost everything possible has broken their way all year. They should have been the first 1 to lose to a 16 anyway back in 1996 when they beat Western Carolina by 2 with a lot of help from the refs.

Hell, he's allowed to play with more physicality on offense than defenders are allowed to play with against him. I've never seen another player that is allowed to bulldoze, elbow, or shoulder the defender out of the way so much while also getting touch fouls called on the defenders. Then both he and Painter whine if the refs don't do everything possible to protect him.

I couldn't agree more, especially the part in bold. JG doesn't seem to do well when his opponent is quicker than he is. He can play against bigger players, provided they are slow and plodding but can't handle anyone with speed.

Missouri might as well get some buy out cash when a destination school comes calling.

Hopefully McNeeley is very receptive to those old man selfies because I'd love to see what Woody could do with a player as versatile as he is. TJD's development as well as that of JHS should help a lot.