lillurk

I’ve tried to make this point a lot, but there were signs before the hire that Archie’s reputation outpaced his actual prospects. I know he was the hottest young coach but the folks who make those lists like stories, and Arch was a good story: his time as a player, family of coaches, beat his mentor on a run to an Elite 8, so on. This is one of the reasons I would value advanced metrics and discount tournament success a bit. His best offensive efficiency at Dayton was in his first two years; as offense got better across the country his diminished relatively. His best defense there was good, but his reputation far outpaced the performance of every season but 2015-16 on D. Even the team that went to the E8 ended the year at 42 on Kenpom. It’s hard to get that far into the tournament without climbing quite a bit because you’re beating tournament-quality teams.

Yeah you can do “interim” if you have good reason to: NBA coach handshake agreement, fired the last guy on short notice, had to change late in the hiring season, etc. I don’t see why you go out of your way to do it. Even if you have a big fish on the line and you’re waiting for their season to end, you can just keep your current coach.

I’m enjoying the Mussel-mentum on the board.

With you on those preferences.

Yeah I’d guess that’s the rough upper limit? If they’re really targeting someone with P5 HC experience who has a resume worth targeting...

To me the move — this year or next — is to negotiate the mitigation. “We‘ll guarantee $5M as long as you’re looking for jobs.”

on the bright side, we might know something soon. If he’s staying we’ll see the Dolson statement backing him, oh, the day after they lose? And if it’s quiet that might mean contract buyout negotiations are happening?

Does a blowout loss move the needle more than a mildly competitive one tomorrow night?

I genuinely worry that 1) IU stays the course, 2) IU has a decent season, and 3) IU sticks with Miller. It’s not my call but it isn’t working and seems to be going the wrong way based on the last month and the recruiting. There’s a pretty good group coming back, especially on the perimeter with Franklin, Stewart, and an improved Lander (plus I like Rob but I think he’d be better under a different coach). I can see the logic with waiting if you really think there’s a small number of coaches who can win at IU. I disagree, like @Chris007 , and think most competent options would be an immediate and long-term upgrade. Like @hoosierpap I live outside the state now and think the recruiting base and resources make IU a sleeping giant so I’m less convinced you need some hard-to-find “perfect fit.” Like a lot of y’all I typically watch every game, read and think about the team a ton, and that enthusiasm has waned big time. Anyway, what if IU’s like 23-13 (10-10) next year but plays into the sweet sixteen after they upset a 2 or 3 seed in the second round? That wouldn’t really change my perspective on Miller but I worry it would just delay the inevitable longer.

Yes, I have a vivid memory of a Romeo/Juwan pick and roll on an empty side in the home game vs Purdue that year. It led to a Juwan dunk or layup. They should’ve dared teams to stop that kind of action. Same with Franklin this year. He had some turnover issues but IU badly needed a guard to make plays and he could do that.

Beilein delegated the whole defense at UM, first to Billy Donlon and then, with great success, Luke Yaklich. I like the approach. Takes some self-knowledge and humility.

Dennis Gates with Tim Miles as the associate HC who knows the conference while Gates learns it?

Right they weren’t claiming any insight. My hunch, with just my eyes, brain, and the insight from this board (especially @Chris007 and @hoosierpap) is still that IU will lose Thursday and it’ll be Miller’s last game. But I accept that it’s no sure thing yet.

Basically. They weren’t saying it with certainty, just sort of “think he’ll be back.”

The guys on the new Podcast on the Brink seem to believe we have another year to endure :( say it ain’t so

Certainly sensitive to the idea that it’s important to get the hire right, but I think you have to answer two different questions if it’s your call: 1. Is Archie the guy long-term? 2. What’s better (or worse) if you keep the status who? You can imagine a situation a la 2016 where the answer to #1 is “likely not,” but also where the answer to #2 is it would be silly to move on in the moment. However, to me things are in such a spiral, big picture, that while you want to really nail the hire and you worry about missing, there are a number of candidates who could make it work for ten or fifteen years, maybe longer, even if they don’t stay until retirement. It would be nice to have a fifteen year, “Roy Williams at Kansas” kind of run, even if you don’t get Coach K, is my point.

I think WatShot is trying to say you hear that from broadcasters, coaches say things like “the shooters background is different.” But it seems a bridge farther to say in advance not just that you’re worried about the difference, but that you think your team will shoot worse. Like say, “we’ve played in arenas before, shootaround helps, we gotta get shots up and get comfortable.” Fine.

I didn’t dispute their truthfulness. But -team can’t shoot in an arena? Who’s job is it to recruit and develop shooters? -the conference is good? Ok well he’s got more resources than just about anybody. Fran’s the only coach of the top ten teams in the conference who’s been on the job longer than Miller. -Franklin has been hobbled, yep. Good development there. Why are we so thin? -less room for error? Why’s that? Who’s responsible? In general I’m open to explanations of why things didn’t work out (not just about IU basketball, but in general). Life’s complicated. But this is a sorry set of excuses if you’re the one in charge.

Just overwhelmingly embarrassing to read the quotes from CAM’s radio show tonight. Sounds like he’s trying, calmly, to make a case for another year, but in reality he’s undermining his capability? Buck stops with you, man.

Yeah I agree. Relatively young, very quick turnarounds at both stops, good on the transfer market but immediately a good recruiter of HSers at Arkansas, where that’s probably a better option than it is at Nevada. He employed Jordan Sperber, the Hoop Vision guy, at Nevada. His pattern at both stops: massive improvement in year one from the recently established historical level of the program, then year two is another step up.

Yes, I LOVE Oats. Unfortunately he may not want to leave the SEC, just got an extension, Alabama has deep pockets...we can dream.

If it’s gonna be someone with P5 (or Big East) HC experience, here’s a list of names we’ve either dreamed on, mentioned, or otherwise discussed who fit the bill. Note this would eliminate the Fife, Gates, Shrewsberry cohort. (as pointed out above it would technically eliminate Stevens but LOL) “Almost no chance” tier: Stevens, Donovan, Wright, Bennett Age, health, compliance concerns probably eliminate: Beilein, Kruger, Pearl, Huggins. Matta? check the price/willingness to move: Oats, Beard, Mack, Drew also mentioned but probably long-shots: Musselman, Enfield, Mike White (FL)

Trying to parse how much I should read into the subtext here. I’ll guess Rothstein?

The Allen # sounds big but per Osterman it’s a raise of less than $1M for next year. So this should in no way impact hoops negatively, and in fact might have a slight benefit of indicating IU is serious and will pay for success.

I would imagine this is a negotiating point if you separate, too. E.g. “I’ll settle for $5M if you waive the offset/mitigation clause.”