lillurk

Celtics have five games the last eight days of this month, if things go poorly before then that’s when you could imagine the sort of mutual “we need a new voice to salvage the season even though we love Brad” choice (especially if he’d like out).

I realize Stevens is a long shot but I’m trying to game out how he’d end up an option this cycle. By all accounts the Celts’ owner and GM genuinely want him around despite their struggles this year, which leaves two paths, the first more likely: 1. He coaches the rest of the season and leaves thereafter. Celts are 5th in the East; 4th and 11th are separated by 3 games total. If you assume the Bulls (11th) sell some vets to bolster their future, the top ten is pretty set. The NBA is bringing back the play-in tourney for seeds 7-10, which will be over May 21. If the Celtics slip to 7th or lower, they could be done then. (It’s possible but more likely in my book that they finish above that but don’t survive the first round.) 2. He leaves midseason. It would be basically unprecedented for him to do so explicitly to take a college job, but if he wants the job I wonder if they’d use a losing streak or something as a mutually agreed-upon reason to ease him out. Feels rare for a change in May/June as #1 above would be, but if he’s your man then you absolutely do it. I just wonder if at that point it would be more likely you stick with Miller another year with an established understanding with Stevens that it’s his job thereafter. (Of course we’d prefer sooner.)

So potentially very good news it Pitt opens up. Also if the plan is “move on for willing top tier candidate,” and Dolson and Archie are on the same page, as Dolson said, you’d think it might motivate Archie to move for the right gig, since that probably looks better than being replaced. Maybe not.

Is Penn State at all interested in retaining their interim guy? Thought he did well given the circumstances. Hoping Pitt opens, too, though Sean Miller might be angling for that one. Maybe they prefer the cleaner option?

Watching major conference tournament semis, I’m struck by how many big wings the best teams play — sometimes even four at a time. By my count Archie recruited four of those, all in his first class except one: Langford, Hunter, Anderson, Geronimo. I’m simply not sure why you’d try to win with mostly traditional posts and small-to-average height guards. But then again I don’t think he really utilized those guys well, including Smith, so maybe he hurt his chances at more.

Knight’s team was ranked top five at some point in each of his first six years, went to a final 4 in y2, undefeated until an injury y4, undefeated national champ y5. Davis was ranked at some point each of the first three years and went 6-3 in the tournament in those years. Sampson: ranked both years, won a tournament game in y1, 22-4 and top ten when fired. Crean: probably should’ve been better in y3 but y4 got into the top 10 and lost a great game to the champs in the sweet sixteen. No need to make the Archie excuses with the next coach. They don’t “need their guys” or “need to implement their system” in a way that takes years. Year one is almost always a transition of sorts but basketball isn’t football, you only need a small number of players to be pretty darn good. Michigan’s a good example: they’ve got six real Dudes (Smith, Brooks, Wagner, Livers, Dickinson, Brown) and some other guys who are either limited backups or youngsters who don’t contribute much but have some potential.

*four year stretch under a single coach

Yes, hard to overstate that the ONLY comparable four year stretch in IU history in terms of poor outcomes is Crean’s first four years, and he inherited a much bigger mess. We’d all take Crean’s first four and where we stood then over Archie’s first four every day of the week.

Impossible to tell if Archie’s a good Xs and Os coach since he has no interest in preventing opponents from shooting threes OR creating threes for his offense. It’s as though he doesn’t know they’re worth an extra point

? https://iuhoosiers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/bill-comar/2993

Yeah to me this was all carefully worded. “No buzz in the dept.” might also be taken to mean Dolson is running a leak-free operation (good).

Last time IU missed the postseason entirely BEFORE Miller’s first year, 2014, we got a short Glass quote after selections: https://www.insidethehall.com/2014/03/16/indiana-left-out-of-nit-field/ I doubt we hear anything formally this weekend. But a statement or a decision publicly Monday seems a reasonable assumption.

I know the buyout/money angle has been discussed, but I think folks are going to want to leave the house and use disposable income post-pandemic and IU could benefit if they had something new and exciting to promote. Not do much if it’s more of the same.

He’s been very good in college and has moved around a lot. To some that’s a red flag, but he’s already missed his shot in the NBA and IU’s a destination job if you get to cruising altitude, so I don’t think he’d have one foot out the door. He was not initially on my radar but I think he’s a great option.

Just something to consider if they get bounced early. Before a shutdown and perhaps the health fallout from some guys having COVID, they were killer. So maybe Drew’s available earlier...

COVID did a number on Baylor’s defense

More seriously, this is carefully worded: ”not under any pressure”: no ultimatum, probably. Other forms of pressure? IDK, he won’t be poor if he’s out a job. “no talk of removing him”: no talk between whom? ”no one has heard about the IU job being open”: well it isn’t open, so this is technically true as worded. He doesn’t say “no talk it might open”

I imagine Snow’s source here has a name that rhymes with Farchie Thriller

Had reallllly hoped we’d get a wink wink today even if nothing official happened/broke until tomorrow or Sunday. Think we’re getting past Friday news dump time.

Not sure why Rob always walked it up, but also: our transition offense was nonexistent. Can you describe a Miller-era fast break?

Marshall is a non-negotiable no. But he also mentioned Chris Jans, an interesting new long shot name.

This is where he and Musselman aren’t the same. The year before Musselman got there, they were Kenpom 270. Truly hard to be that bad at a large mid-major. Musselman y1: 124 y2: 54, regular season and conf tourney champs y3: 25, conf champs, sweet 16. Second time in school history, tied for second highest seed ever y4: 27, conf champs, same seed

Compare Alford at Nevada with Musselman at the same spot. Another worthwhile reason to move quickly: recruiting includes keeping the current roster together to the extent you can / want to.

Good point re: NIT. That game was at 9 pm on 3/14 and we heard the Crean news at noon 3/16.

Fun game! I’d interview Fife, Gates, and Shrewsberry at least. Probably would like to have a Martelli-style top assistant next to one of them, so I’d gauge their openness to that. I’d be curious how they viewed next year’s team and their chances of making the tournament in y1, as well as a vision to reach the top echelon of the conference — lately the very top is the Michigan schools if the criteria is consistency at a high level, recruiting, and chances at big time tournament and conference success.