lillurk

Also opponent- and location-adjusted efficiency measures like NET, Kenpom, etc. ALREADY factor in SOS, so they’re double counting it instead of meaningful team performance measures.

This all gets to my “selective application of their own stated criteria” thing, and additionally the lack of internal logic. Who cares if UM gets a NCSOS bump for playing @UCF: they lost there!

My concern with the selection committee is that despite having an established criteria, it’s selectively applied case-by-case. This is an old saw but to use IU as an example this year: if you look at the S-curve, I can’t really fathom a blend of résumé and predictive metrics that have IU lower than 40th (I’d drop Miami below IU and move Loyola up). And yet somehow the committee finds a way.

I think it’s a pretty good matchup for IU, tbh. Wyoming’s good, but TJD, Race, and Geronimo (if healthy) can guard Ike. They don’t really have a big wing/versatile 4-type that’s given IU trouble this year. Need X not to get into foul trouble vs. Maldonado, and for Rob and Trey not to send him to the line. Kopp and Stewart, for all their faults, are okay at chasing “just a shooter” types. Offensively, I think IU’s bigs should do alright, and I like what I’ve seen from X lately. The swing issue is what they get from guys other than TJD, Race, X

They’re a fun watch, I think. They don’t play fast, they’re about equally good on O and D. They don’t force TOs but their D is good at the other four factors (opponent shooting %, defensive rebounding, avoiding fouls). They’re good at 2s offensively, don’t hit the offensive glass much. Best players: Hunter Maldonado is a good, tall, lead guard. Gets to the line a bunch. Graham Ike a pretty quick, slightly small 5, a la TJD; athletic but not as much as Trayce. Neither shoots the three much or well, they’re combined 22/89. Their next best guy, Drake Jeffries, is a 40% shooter on over 200 tries this year (and I think someone mentioned he played HSBB in IN).

Bates has played 33% of minutes while missing at least two whole games. while I think he’s a good one, a lot of calls for him to play more now are “backup QB syndrome” because the other 2s and 3s have…flaws. And Lander’s been hurt a bunch, while similarly not exactly proving he can guard at a B1G level yet. And he has a 40% TO rate. Editing to add: I think both can be valuable players, even offer some things now. But look at any big program; they’ve got four and five stars getting fewer minutes than they might’ve hoped. I think when there are clear explanations other than “the coach doesn’t trust young guys,” it’s easier to stomach for prospective recruits.

Contrast that with Bohannon — he’s probably more of a defensive liability but he’s an even better shooter than either, AND can shoot off the dribble

What baffles me is that there’s like three games today, the committee could ABSOLUTELY draw up contingencies for a variety of outcomes.

It would be nice to consistently play Saturday or Sunday in the BTT. Good atmospheres, feels like your team’s hitting its stride at the right time, the tourney title isn’t AS important as the regular season but it’s still an impressive prize. I think IU can join the teams consistently playing in the semis and beyond. Lately that’s been MSU, UM, PU, OSU, Ill, UW. Let’s jump a few of that group and do it.

Yeah I tend to think IU’s safe. I’m not a bracketologist but I’d guess IU’s ahead of UM, Wyoming, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rutgers, SMU, Davidson, and Texas A&M. I’m not sure they’re all in, and of course two of them could clinch autobids tomorrow. But unless both Davidson and A&M win their conference championships, I doubt IU’s in Dayton.

Is there a rule that a First Four team can’t be an autobid? Surely not, as the sixteen seeds are autos

And from all available evidence, these dudes love playing for him. X said Friday he loves playing at IU. Tamar brings a joyous intensity when he plays and cheers with the bench mob, and so on.

Easy to stomach a loss when the team plays hard and it’s a close one against a worthy opponent. Felt that way about last Saturday, too. Can’t wait to see these dudes locked in next week.

This is my take too. The only game that wasn’t close all year was the UM game where they hit 11/17 3s and IU was emotionally hungover from beating PU. IU has the look of the sort of team who gives a contender all it can handle in the R32 next weekend. Whether it wins that game is all about who’s making shots.

They don’t. I think Rutgers, Notre Dame, and Wake are probably all out. Re: Rutgers…https://barttorvik.com/resume-compare.php?team=Rutgers&year=2022

The dream is half dead. But y’know what would be spicy? IU/PU rubber match.

Definitely robots. The game had a classic Big East aura, in the best way

Is it a shock to everyone that the conference tournament can be fun, or just me?

Would just update this to say: IU met my goal for this season, assuming they’re in. That they beat PU, ND, OSU, UM, U of I on the way there? Won two at least in the BTT? All gravy, as is everything else they do this season.

One way of splitting it: through the MSU game, adjusted efficiency of 1.06 points/possession, good for 92nd best in the country during that period, per Torvik. Since then, 1.11 adjusted ppp, up to 63rd during the span. Perhaps most crucially, scored more than 1/possession adjusted each game since then.

Yes, I know lots of Wisconsin fans and they’re almost all wonderful and fun. Their team, however? The pits.

Appears his father, Almany, played for Cal at Memphis 2002-2005 https://mobile.twitter.com/ukcoachcalipari/status/624257441400791041

USPS may know more specifics but I think IU wouldn’t promise a starting spot early.

Also one for the haters: the offense creates a bunch of open shots (even without many shot creators!). Just have to hit ‘em

1. Feel what you feel, post what you post, but the season’s not over. I understand the likely outcome, and I think everyone agrees the NIT would be a disappointment. 2. …but there are degrees of disappointment. Caring about a basketball team isn’t zero sum. The program is in vastly better position than it was a year ago. If IU misses the tournament it will be by a very small margin — flip a game here or there. And IU was in tons of close games. That’s a different sort of disappointment than getting run off your own floor by Indiana State on the first night of the season. 3. If you think IU’s failure to win close games 2019-present is reflective of some unchangeable character that infected the program, I understand being big mad. I think it’s more than likely just a couple things: bad luck, and less talent (especially at guard). 4. The luck, well, just shake your head. The talent can be fixed. IU is the sort of place where it can be fixed without miracles. And one of the big sources of the dearth of guard talent isn’t coaching anywhere right now. 5. This dovetails with the source of some other frustration, I sense: whataboutnextyear? A good question, of course. I don’t know the answer. But Woody did alright last summer, knows more of what to expect and what he needs this time around. IU had the best defense in the conference this year, and I think more guys CMW and co. pick will mean they get better on the other side of the ball.