lillurk

Ok just gonna cope post: wonder if this increases the chances Woody just says “I’m out” and retires. Better coaches have done so for similar reasons!

If, like me, you basically believe Dusty would almost kill for the job, AND think he’s good, you really have to cling to the hope that he sees what any ball knowing observer sees: he can have this lined up with one more year of patience and success where he’s at. I believed Scott’s told him as much. Let’s hope.

I’m truly not really a doomposter on here or anywhere else. But I worry IU is looking at firing a coach mid-February 2025 at about 10-14 (4-12) and a roster that has mayyybe 1-2 guys the next coach could hope to keep?

Wonder if anyone with a say is having second thoughts about last night’s vote of confidence given the McNeeley shocker. No reason to believe they know ball enough to get it, alas. But the narrow but interesting path to being okay next year just about dried up. Seems like the plan could’ve waited, even if the goal was to get ahead of portal concerns, there was no need for the timing we got. Iu’s gonna have a miserable roster next year and a Dusty May presser in April 2025.

Meant to add that not only will the “oops, all transfers” strategy fail, it’s going to leave an empty cupboard for his successor

I never listen to the Hysterics but once upon a time someone on here recommended a pod they did with, I believe, Kenya Hunter. This was not long ago, a quick search reveals that came out 5/10/2022 if it’s the one I’m thinking it was. He clearly indicated that their strategy was to primarily recruit and develop HS recruits, and supplement with transfers. In my opinion that’s the correct plan at IU. Woody’s clearly shifted philosophies, based on what we see and what insiders have said. Sadly, I think it’s clearly going to fail. Not impossible to imagine this year’s holdovers and some guard additions, plus McNeeley, could’ve been an interesting squad. My hunch is the chances that’s true are significantly lower without McNeeley. Probably need 4 and maybe 5 guys from the portal to hit, just a really tall task even in good times. And that’s assuming a decent nucleus stays: feels like the chances of that might also be moving out of reach.

It’s because they’re bad at their job. I don’t think it’s EASY, exactly, but they are simply not particularly well-qualified to do it and act like it’s much harder than it has to be

I’m not as anti-Fred Glass as many on here but it seems clear he was miserable at some revenue sport stuff: -Allen era brought IU some great football moments but the search that made him HC was poor in totally self-inflicted, confusing ways -the 2013(?) Crean extension was, again, an unforced error -my hunch is the Crean era was somewhat hamstrung by Glass being less than sold thereafter -Archie didn’t turn out, and while he wasn’t my pick, I think he was at least somewhat defensible…however, Glass didn’t seem to learn from it; if I recall correctly he said on the ITH podcast after he retired and Arch was gone that he’d do it all over again. -then there’s this, which I’ve heard before and checks out — there’s some old Woj tweet about Woodson’s interest in the job. It’s become somewhat popular to overstate Woody’s lack of qualifications but a younger Woody might’ve been a different story (and almost certainly would’ve been an improvement over what we got from Arch).

1. I have no reason to doubt tonight’s reporting. I do wonder if anything changes if IU loses out and loses a majority of its roster. 2. It seems correct that “Archie got 4 years so Woody should too” mattered to some decision-makers. I am no Archie fan but can we talk about how silly that is? After 2 years, Archie lost Juwan Morgan and Romeo and I figured year 3 would be a disaster on the way out the door. Then the team wasn’t great but was absolutely, 100% a tourney team, and Covid happened. I don’t know if anyone thought he was the savior at that point but it was not a time to make an unnecessary coaching change, and there was every reason to believe the roster he brought back would be quite good. In fact, if I recall correctly, they were like ~11th in Kenpom after beating Providence in “Maui” in Asheville at the start of year 4. Them, of course, water found its level and the season went off the rails and he was justifiably fired. But as much as I never liked the hire, bad as it looked on his first night, and when he squandered Romeo, he was in no spot to get fired after year 3 even without the weird external situation.

Yeah, so see you all back here in a year while we track FAU scores in the meantime? Sadly I find it tough to care deeply about CBB when IU is bad, as it’s just a reminder of all the myriad ways a program can be better. We need our Harbaugh.

We made similar posts, this is the big thing, and the sort of challenge of needing to get the votes of folks who didn’t get into their spots because of their evaluative prowess in athletics. I’ll never root against the Hoosiers but at this point I think it’s possible the least painful way out is another disappointment next year. If (like @Chris007, @Stuhoo, myself, surely others) you’re a real believer that May can be a star, hope and pray he has a nice month and stays put another year — a silver lining is he can lengthen his resume, Nate Oats et al get one year further into contracts with downward sloping buyouts, etc.

Wonder if Dolson knows something about whether or not May is actually a serious candidate for OSU. Before this all got really hot I made the point that moving on makes more sense next year and this jibes with that, even if it’s not what I wanted. Next year’s gonna feel weird. Really think Woody may have lost the juice, in which case IU moves on in a year (one too late), and may miss more than it should in ‘25. Conversely, if he succeeds, hopefully he does couple that with recruiting success. Of course. But I could see him “splitting the baby:” being okay next year — say, a tournament team — but retiring then, and not necessarily setting up his successor with a great class. Suboptimal.

He won’t play for the guy LeBron allegedly wants his son to play for at OSU? I differ.

Agree with Demo here and would add two other points I’ve made before: 1. It’s possible — preferable! — to evaluate a coach based on more than tournament success. 2. May’s situation in FAU makes his success remarkable even if they’d lost to Memphis in R64 last year.

Yes, they’ve also basically glued the backup frontcourt transfers to the bench and played some minutes w/MM at the 4. He really hasn’t adjusted to the season being 40% as long as the NBA season, these things were obvious to anyone who knew ball in July, let along November, and I don’t get to see practice.

1. Maybe he wouldn’t! 2. Chris has hinted he was told he’d get 4 years at one point and the entire approach seems pretty near-sighted; he’s not offering many ‘26s or beyond (recall Crean offering lots of underclassmen, for example). The contract sort of implies that, too, even with the raise the buyout/length didn’t change (and buyout drops to 50% remaining $ owed on 4/1/25). 3. I do wonder if at this point he’s realizing the job is a bit different than he anticipated. No one doubts he wants to succeed OR that he loves IU, maybe he rides off into the sunset to spend time with his new grand baby. He could leave on a high note, program better than he found it, and someone else could level it the rest of the way up. 4. I didn’t make this explicit but I would also guess that if he's retained, the offseason conversation this year would make expectations clear, and due to the contract details mentioned above, it gets a LOT cheaper to move on then. 5. next year is also about the time he’d want an extension if he’s gonna continue, as he’d be down to 3 years left on the original 7 year contract. Would guess there’s no such extension forthcoming unless it’s a Harbaugh-in-2020 type thing where it’s actually easier and or cheaper for both parties to move on in the future. (E.g. if IU is 26-5 next year and he doesn’t plan to hang ‘em up, tack on a year or # but do do so with heavy incentives so you’re not paying a guy to retire when you also have to go out to pay his replacement.)

I tend to agree, for sure. Think he would’ve positively swung the Kansas game; maybe a fully healthy X is in a somewhat better headspace through the year and has his share of peccadillos but they’re outweighed by positive contributions.

I await Chris’s juice like the rest of us, but I’ll say one possibility we haven’t discussed much is something like: 1. Woody gets one more year and brings together a good team — say roughly last year’s or better. This probably includes some genuine strategic changes in roster and play style approaches. 2. There’s an agreement it’s the last rodeo. There are some issues with the idea. Makes the crucial ‘25 class tough, no obvious successor by his side, hard to project who signs an extension and takes himself off the market or what other jobs are available, so on. But you can squint and see a team next year with almost every contributor back except Ware, healthy Newton, portal guard reinforcements, and McNeeley being quite good. That leaves IU better than he found it by quite a bit. It gives some younger candidates awhile longer to lengthen resumes (or prove they’re paper tigers). Not my favorite outcome, but I think it’s clear one way or another there will be someone different in charge long-term.

In some ways today has validated Woody’s continued lament that X would’ve changed this team. Maryland’s not great but they’re top 50 Kenpom, this is a genuinely good win. But with X healthy all year this is, what, a 7-10 seed? And that’s setting aside the other issues, whether banking on X’s health, roster construction, etc. That’s not really the thing Woody promised from the start. Then you get to game management stuff like this… I think he probably saved his job today. And look, Gallo/Leal/Newton/Leal/MM/Reneau/McNeeley plus some guard transfers is intriguing! But long-term…?

Think there’s a narrow case that this is a low-seeded tourney team with perfect health this year. But the problem, to me, is it probably could be that without X with better decision-making in the offseason and scheme. Also makes me wonder if last year could’ve ended differently if X came back healthy for the stretch run, moved on, and they just grabbed a different guard in his spot this offseason. But the big problem with Woody bemoaning X’s absence is even with him, the team still wouldn’t be close to his consistently stated goals of competing for conference and national titles.

Tend to think Dolson notices and is sharp, really hope he knows what isn’t happening tonight.

Saying tone-deaf, foolish stuff in pressers and failing to go out to see top targets at sectionals…that’s just failing the easy stuff. It’s skipping the reading, not trying on the homework. It’s how you fail. IMO that’s a much bigger negative than any moral victories from wins the rest of the way.

Was going to say even before seeing this that how IU plays if/when X is back can bolster or strike one of Coach’s favorite excuses. I don’t think it holds much water, but if he plays and things keep sliding, it sure gets harder for the defenders

Maybe, though if you can get there twice, you have a real shot. I think Auburn would also be inclined to meet whatever demands he’d make to stay in that case, up to and including a Cal-style perpetual renewal and making Stephen the coach-in waiting. This will only be the 13th time they make the dance in the program’s history. Pearl has their only F4, otherwise their deepest runs are the ‘86 elite 8, and sweet sixteens in ‘85, ‘99, and ‘03.

Really remarkable how much more quickly this has gotten bad due to totally unforced errors that aren’t really connected to things happening on the court. Crean, as one example, rubbed a lot of people the wrong way, could bristle in pressers, and was prone to coach-speak. But he mostly avoided the rake-stepping Woody’s done this year. And the pace is accelerating. It’s no reason to fire a coach, but at the margin it sure makes it easier.