lillurk

Torvik’s too-early 2023 projections are up. IU slots in at #42…33rd if you add Xavier and make no other changes using the rostercast tool. Of course lots will change for the Hoosiers and other teams to alter that. That basically projects IU to be about as good overall next year as this year.

I’m hootin’ and hollerin’

Yeah, and if you tried to explain at the time it was fine they wanted to say it was some sort of canary in a coal mine

Would’ve guessed Gillis, he’d make a National fake tough guy team (this is in re: whiteboard with a hole in it in PU’s locker room)

Lotta folks including a head coach making $3M wanted “empty scholarship” over Jake Laravia, who turned into a 1st round pick within 3 years. The more I think about the Miller era the less it makes sense

I won’t pick this optimistically with IU but if you look at any of the projections, or just eyeball the region, a couple things stand out: 1. The difference between being a 4 and a 5 seed is about ~10% win probability in the round of 64 2. Even as about the 30th best team by the predictive metrics, IU is still the likeliest of the teams in its pod (Kent State, Miami, Drake) to get to the second weekend. That of course jumps if Miami’s injury issue takes out or eliminates their best interior player. 3. the other obvious nice thing about being a high seed…there’s a better chance someone else knocks off the favorite before you get them. E.g. it’s not likely but either Iowa or Auburn is capable of beating Houston. One at a time, guys

The “you wrecked our program” revenge tour

Yeah, haven’t gotten too deep, and I’m high on both teams, but that region looked much softer than some others.

Maybe I should save this rant for Monday or pre-First Four Tuesday, but I’m feeling it now so here goes: the committee is spoken about with such reverence, but they act lazily far too often. Of course this year that likely won’t materially impact IU, so I don’t mean this in a hugely self-serving way. But at this point it’s clear they don’t just disregard Sunday games, they discount conference tourneys too much more broadly. 2022 Texas A&M is the poster child. Now, of course, conference tourneys are a small percentage of the whole season. So? The margins between teams are small! One game can move things. To ignore them is malpractice just as it would be to ignore games that happen any other weekend. I also don’t buy the argument that somehow they don’t have time. There are only two games that run right up to the televised selection. Using this year as an example, the four teams playing in those games will all be in: Memphis, Houston, PSU, and Purdue. However, you could very easily create contingencies for all possible outcomes and just send CBS the bracket that matched the reality. E.g. Houston is going to be a 1; does a loss change their standing vis a vis the other 1s? PU a 1 or 2 — does the outcome change which? And then seeding implications for PSU and Memphis…what else are they doing if not gaming out those possibilities? Finally, if they really wanted to eliminate human bias, they could do that a couple of ways instead of putting in some undeserving power conference team. No interest in doing so, it seems. But selection via a SOR or WAB-style resume metric, and then let teams draft region/opponent themselves, would be both fairer and more interesting (credit John Gasaway on this idea).

These are a nice summary of where I’m at: good season given ALL the injuries AND given that it’s easy to imagine the one season-ending injury could’ve changed things for the positive — either in games we’ve already seen or differential tournament outcomes. One thing that stood out this week: Mike Woodson deeply cares about winning the conference and the BTT. Not sure Archie Miller ever talked about either after Fred Glass outlined expectations in his opening press conference. Even last year, when he really didn’t have the horses. Even this year, when he lost one of his 3 best players to injury and started 1-4 in conference. I think that’s part of why the team bounced back. Even yesterday, after the game and the last chance at either this year was over, he was lamenting it for his seniors. Thats not everything, and I’m not as big on goal setting as some of the folks who write business management books. But it matters a lot, I think. They’ll get one sooner than later.

I was thinking the collision course was in play but now I wonder if the Vandy loss could keep UK below the 5 line

Thankfully we don’t have to pick! I think S16/E8 weekend is great too — stakes feel super high, 12 games in four days, so you can basically watch each one live with little distraction from the others

Clearly #1, but it would be truly hilarious for OSU to beat Purdue tomorrow

Just supremely funny that PSU swept Illinois on 3 tries

dePaul..what was the plan taking twos down 3 with ten seconds left

Based on Harvard’s academic calendar, this is the last week of the first half of the term, and some courses only run half term (this is pretty typical at a large university). So Ledlum probably has a class or two that end this week. Next week is their spring break.

We’ve seen that movie before https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401310909

With regard to Ledlum, but applicable to plenty of other transfers: consider context on shooting numbers. His FT% worries me, so I’m not claiming he’ll turn into Kopp. But he’ll surely get better shots with X probably carry a lighter load overall — which should mean fewer spots where he just HAS to force something as the best scorer on the floor.

That early window tonight that featured close games for VT/ND, CoC/UNCW, and NKU/UNCW, leading into the WCC final and most all majors getting underway tomorrow…we’ve arrived, friends

Agreed, he’s in a similar boat to Caleb Houstan last year: 1-and-done who didn’t meet expectations. If the best thing about frosh is they become sophs, it can be a bummer when they’re gone by then. Sometimes, as with JHS, it’s worth it because they actually help you win

Surely they’ll hope so. Their concern is they’re likely to lose Jett and Bufkin to the draft and already lack depth.

Everyone makes bad evals sometimes, to be sure. Seems like Arch specialized in them. Surely everyone here would take Trey Galloway over Ethan Morton — a fine player, no knock — and/or Carter Whitt? I’m not sure to what extent those were contingent but Arch clearly wanted Morton badly, and IIRC Whitt was a priority for awhile too

The good news is there’s lots of other hoops, almost all day much of the week, and IU’s season + win yesterday means I can watch it without emotionally overinvesting

Yes, massive shot on a possession where IU HAD to score. He has been terrific in close and late scenarios

I don’t comment in this thread as much as some but it’s a delight