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Everything posted by 5fouls
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Travel partners are very hard to do without a round-robin schedule. Take Scott's example for instance. Assume IU's twice a year pods year one are Purdue, as well as Rutgers/Maryland and OSU/PSU. Now, assume our 1 game road pods are UM\MSU and UI/NW. Then say our 1 game home pods are UW/Minn and Iowa/Nebraska. At that point we have played 9 home games and 9 road games. But, there is only 1 pod left. The USC/UCLA pod is split at that point.
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Looking down the road to the inevitable Super-Conference concept. Where does IU fit in such a hierarchy? It's a football driven concept after all. I'm indifferent to UCLA and USC. If you're going to take the plunge, those are two good schools to start with. But, the overall concept of Super-Conferences is bad for teams with subpar football programs, and that group includes IU.
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B1G Standings Predictions for 2022/2023
5fouls replied to Stuhoo's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
Unless there is a monetary prize for best prediction, I'll roll with this 1) IU (20-0) 2) Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin all at (10-10) 14) Purdue (0-20) -
I hope Purdue is especially bad.
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It hurts the team if TJD shoots 48% from the field instead of 60% from the field. Those other guys can still drive the lane with a properly executed high ball screen.
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First and foremost, it's improved outside shooting for almost everyone on the team. That said, I'm reluctant to see TJD attempt to expand his game by taking more jumpers. While it may be a benefit to his pro career, for IU's season, it has the makings of an experiment gone bad. I think players accepting roles will be another key. Potential for a numbers crunch and it will be critical that guys that get squeezed look long term. Improvement from Coach Woodson on his substitution patterns. No hockey line changes. Have 2 starters on floor at all times. Limit turnovers. We will hold an edge in most games if we are equal to our opponent in taking care of the ball. Give them 5 extra possessions a game and anything can happen.
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What I said is 'For IU to be as successful as it can be', Bates needs to be its most reliable 3-point shooter. I say that, not to be ridiculous, but I'll help by pointing out some obvious reasons why. Schifino is a freshman and not known to be a shooter XJ is our point guard. While he showed last year he can shoot the 3, your point guard needs to running the offense instead of trying to spot up for 3. Bates can create his own shot better than Kopp Galloway, for all his skills, will never be a good shooter. He will get open looks for a reason. I want Geronimo crashing the offensive boards more than I want him spotting up from outside If Bates does not improve, Race may actually end up being our most reliable 3-point shooter. That's not necessarily a good thing. Leal likely won't get sufficient minutes to make a difference game in and game out. Is 29% going to cut it? No. But, if he Bates shoots that, we are a fringe Top 20 team instead of a potential Top 10 team. That's my point. It's not like we have a team full of Alfords, Hulls, Roths and Zeislofts to fall back on. Let's revisit this discussion at the end of the year. If Bates can shoot something like 38%, we'll be talking about how critical that was to the team's success. If he shoots 30%, we'll be talking about how much better the team would have been if he shot better. Kopp is the only other option that seems capable of filling that outside shooting void. And, in my estimation, if Bates beats Kopp out for starts/minutes, IU will be better for it.
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I think Tamar Bates is who we need to see starting at the 3 slot. He may or may not earn it. But, for IU to be as good as it can be, that's what needs to happen. He needs to be our most reliable 3 point shooter.
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I don't think we're Top 10 unless someone (most likely Bates) takes a big step forward and becomes a consistent perimeter scorer. We may get into the Top 10 early in the season as younger teams are still figuring things out. But, by the end of the year, if we have not become a better shooting team from the arc, I have to think there will be at least 10 teams better. If I had to make a prediction, I would guess a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.
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You ever have those situations where you expect something to happen, but your brain convinces you the exact opposite will happen? That's where I am at with TJD. I fully expect him to return to IU. Every indicator points that way and I can't come up with one single thing to cause me to believe otherwise. I expect him to come back. Yet, my brain is hard selling the opposite.
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I know he won DPOY in the AAC, but the numbers say his defensive prowess is a little overrated. Defensive numbers from last season: Defensive Rating - 99.6 (100 is average, lower is better) Defensive Win Shares - 1.3 Defensive Box Plus/Minus - 2.1 Steal % - 1.7 Block Percentage - 3.2 Here is an IU Comp. Galloway used for everything except Defensive Win Shares because that is a cumulative total and his missed time because of injuries kept that number down. Defensive Rating - 99.9 Defensive Win Shares - Kopp with 1.1 Defensive Box Plus/Minus - 3.7 Steal % - 2.6 Block Percentage - 1.4 The numbers tell me, other than Block %, we already have a perimeter defender as equal to or better than Dennis. And, the Big Ten is a different animal than the AAC. Would not have been worth 'making room' in my opinion.
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From Dennis' point of view or IU's? I can see a scenario where Dennis chooses A&M over IU regardless of TJD's decision. What I can't see is a scenario where IU takes Dennis if TJD comes back. The scholarship is just not available in that case. And, I don't think IU forcibly opens a scholarship from the remaining roster.
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Mike Woodson and His Coaching Staff
5fouls replied to Hoosierfan1901's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
Nah. https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2015/2/11/7977925/what-is-a-tom-crean -
Opinions on redshirting someone on the roster, and if so, who? And, what are the chances that player would be receptive to the idea?
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Half the players on scholly will never get in the game. Many of those will be team GPA boosters. Kids that scored 37 points in their entire high school career, but 1600 on their SAT. There will be some teams where the 3rd row behind the bench will have people in uniform.
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Just my opinion, but for the team to maximize its potential, Tamar Bates needs to begin to maximize his. He can help get us to a different level than Kopp or Galloway. If he doesn't, we can still be good. Just not as good as if he does.
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The depth of the roster, especially in the frontcourt if TJD stays, is going to be huge. How many times last season did we see Race totally worn down at the end of the game? It won't have to simply be the Trayce and Race show next season. You can have Trayce give max effort for 30 minutes and Race max effort for 25. Geronimo, Duncomb, and the freshmen will all be contributors off the bench. I have to think Woodson has a plan for Duncomb, and has shared that with Logan, or he would not still be there. In the backcourt, I still think you need X for 30 minutes a night as long as he stays out of foul trouble. JHS and Bates for 20-25 minutes a night each. I'm leaning towards both of them starting. Galloway will need to score better to get more than 15-20 minutes a game. Kopp may slip to 10-15 minutes depending on matchups and injuries. I think CJ Gunn will surprise, but could be caught in a minutes crunch. Could be this team's Geronimo, the guy a lot of fans think should play more. Leal is the guy who will play 30 when he's asked to play 30 and be just as supportive if he's not in the gameplan for that night. Of course, I have no real idea how it will play out, and injuries can and will shake things up on a game to game basis. But, I do know I am as excited as I have been in a long time about the direction of the team.
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How are you defining 'Southern'? Romeo is undoubtedly from the Southern part of the state. Bedford, by definition, is in Southern Indiana as well, so Damon would have to be considered as well. Cheaney, like Bird, was a little unheralded out of high school, but is Sisley better than the Big Ten's all time leading scorer?
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I think #14 is a little high unless we find some consistent outside shooting. 25 years ago? Assuming Trayce stayed, this would be a Top 5 team. Today? Without better outside shooting, we're likely Top 25. But, not Top 15.
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Marquee games like Arizona and Kansas on the schedule are fantastic. But, a non-conference schedule that truly prepares a team needs to include some quality mid-majors. I think that is the area where IU has failed the last several years. It's been a few high profile games and a lot of sub-300 low majors. The schedule needs a few A-10, Missouri Valley, WCC, etc. level games on it as well.
