IU Prof

Nevermind.

If we're at the grasping at straws stage, then Chris Mack might be coming up soon...

Agreed. I still think Beilein is the floor here (unless Dolson believes the thug comment would make him a big liability recruiting wise). Edit: Which, I should add, isn't a bad place to be, and I say that as someone not very enthused about Beilein.

Thanks. That's certainly the most plausible scenario I've heard. I still wonder how it's remained under wraps from the NBA press, though...

I still remain skeptical about this. But saying it's true, can anyone come up with a convincing reason of why Brad needs to wait? I get if he's going to coach it out to the end of the season, but why would this week vs. last week vs. next week possibly make any difference? I understand that getting out of his current contract could take some time, but that wouldn't really explain the extreme denial he gave last week, or the current speculation that the 27th or 5th (or whatever) has been the date for weeks. If I could hear a plausible explanation beyond just "contracts...", I'd be more inclined to reboard the Brad Train.

Stepped away for a couple hours, did I miss anything of note?

Whew!

I'm looking forward to the posts after we hire someone else (like Musselman) about how Stevens is really secretly coaching the team behind the scenes, with a series of predictions that Stevens will officially take the position over publicly at various random dates in the future.

Ehh... I'd still rather have Nate Oats.

Not if he's the fallback.

This is my working theory too.

SIAP https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/an-indiana-boosters-10-million-for-a-new-coach-shows-money-talks-but-when-players-walk-is-it-worth-it/?fbclid=IwAR3Ja-JsC7avHiA5jc_bYPfdOdV5s9gsHugQcxAxITkNjOWdr-NL2YZ3Ri8

Technically, the buyout is Oats' responsibility to pay, not IU's. Now obviously that will be a factor in his financial calculus of whether to take the job. But if he's making ~$3.5 million/year at Alabama, and IU offered $6 million/year, he's still coming out ahead even after paying off the buyout. Or a booster could step in and cover it. Either way, the $12 million is a relatively small price to pay if you think you have a coach who can win multiple championships over the next two decades. Personally, I think Oats is that guy.

My current hot board: Oats Oats Oats Stevens Oats Oats Musselman Oats Oats Oats Beard Oats Oats Beilein

For those that think we're going to take another run at Stevens...if we strike out on all the top tier candidates (Oats, Beard, etc.), does the prospect of a Woodson-type hire motivate a donor to step up for another $2-3 million per year to go after Stevens again? Presumably, there would be a $$ value that would be too high for Brad to turn down. The real conspiracy theory would be that Dolson is floating Woodson, etc., to scare the donor base into ponying up more for Stevens.

If you take Dolson at his word from the press conference, he wants someone innovative with his pulse on where the game is going offensively, and a modern style that appeals to recruits. To me, that means Stevens, Oats, Drew, or Beilein, and maybe Musselman. Not Beard, not Matta, not Moser. Edit: Enfield might fit too, but would generally be a bad idea for other reasons (mediocre track record, lack of Midwest connections, ties to the FBI scandal, etc.).

In fact, call me crazy, but I'm so committed to the Oats candidacy that at this point I'd actually prefer him to Stevens, in light of the events of the last week or so.

My thinking is that I'm not sure Oats has the name recognition to get a donor to pay out a $12 million buyout right now. But if he takes Alabama to a final four in his second year, then maybe a donor thinks he's worth the investment. If he wins the title, though, it would be hard for him to leave.

Best case Oats scenario is he gets bounced in the Final Four. That might be enough to get a big donor to step up to pay the buyout, but not so far (title) that Oats has to stay.

Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

Could also explain slow rolling the interview on IU's end.

I think someone mentioned earlier that Oats' buyout drops precipitously after the first year. Here are some more details: https://www.al.com/alabamabasketball/2021/02/details-on-nate-oats-new-19-million-contract-buyout-structure.html Definitely doesn't seem like the structure that someone 100% committed to staying in Tuscaloosa long-term would seek. It's also interesting that he signed a big (for them) extension with Buffalo just a couple weeks before leaving for Alabama.

All speculation, but I was just thinking that I'd put the odds at ~80-85% that the next coach is on this list: Beard, Beilein, Drew, Musselman, and Oats.

FWIW re Oats, Buffalo was a Nike school too.

Regarding Nate Oats, I think it's certainly plausible he could want to remain at Alabama. It gives him an opportunity to routinely be in the mix for Final Fours and National Championships, without the spotlight that comes with a basketball-first school (ala Holtmann). But it's also possible that he'd rather be at a basketball-first school, and a top 5 or 6 program historically, along with an opportunity to return to the Midwest. Only Oats knows. If it were UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, or UCLA hiring a coach, though, I don't think anyone would be surprised if someone like Oats decided to accept the offer even if Alabama was paying him good money. There are only so many blue blood job opportunities available. So for that reason, it isn't crazy to think that Oats (or Beard, Drew, etc.) would view IU desirably even if they are generally content where they are.