BottomLine

CJ thing is pretty easy to figure out. He couldn't get on the floor consistently this year with weaker guards than IU will have next year. Was he going to play more next year? Don't think so. By transferring at the end of the first semester he doesn't have to set out a complete basketball season. Wherever he goes he will be eligible to play the second semester next year. That means that his new school won't need to waste a scholarship on him for a non-productive year. As for missing the first semester at that school and not playing, he is just trading sitting on the bench at IU and not playing much. If he ends up in a better spot for him, so be it. Welcome to college basketball in the 21st century. Come this time next year most people won't remember that he was even on the team.

McRoberts shouldn't be all that surprising. A lot of people seem to make a lot out of him being a walkon but he is only a walkon in the sense that he isn't on scholarship at IU. He is an Indiana kid from a basketball family. He has played for a state championship. He was an Indiana All Star, and that alone puts him in an elite group. He had a division I scholarship to play at Vermont and started as a freshman. He left all that behind to come back home to Indiana to go to school. The point is that he wasn't exactly drafted off of an intramural team to fill a spot on the practice squad. He had credentials coming in. I can remember posters speculating a couple of years ago, when he was just a student at IU, whether he could be talked into joining the team. People were aware that he was on campus. Is he a 5* or 4* recruit? No but he gives everything he has every time he gets on the floor and it is starting to pay off for him. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that sometimes we like to categorize everything and think that only those 4 and 5 star recruits can help the program, and the fact is that they often turn out to be total busts. Sometimes other players that were overlooked or hadn't matured yet grow. Any player is what he does on the floor. Big reputations and categories like "walkon" mean nothing when the ball goes up at the start. I'm enjoying watching McRoberts grow as a player and I hope it continues.

Watched one of their games on the Internet earlier this year and they played like a pickup team. Think they had even more talent last year and probably toughened their schedule. Forrester looked like he hung around the basket in that game and Reddish was just everywhere doing his own thing. Looks like the talent pipeline may have started to dry up. Don't remember seeing any size except Reddish and Forrester and nobody else stuck in my mind. Gym was a bandbox. On the other hand Forrester can move, he is not a Priller, and he certainly plays above the rim. Reminds me a lot of Moore.

The big honcho in that team is Reddish. He is 6-9 and a Duke commit, probable McDonalds all American, and has the green light to cut loose wherever he is on the floor.

Home and Away with Mich St, Minn, OSU, Ill Home only with PSU, NW, Mary, Purd Away only with Wisc, Rut, Iowa, Neb We are done with Michigan and have had our home game with Iowa. Where do we find 11 more conference wins? I agree the opportunities are there, but which ones can we take advantage of? I count it as slim and none. We would need to go on a big winning streak in the conference and finish in the top 4, probably not going to happen. Or, win the Big Ten tourney. Yeah and pigs can fly too. Don't think we are even make the picked over rejects tournament this year.

It is easy to throw around speculation about the chances of the Hoosiers making the field for the NCAA this year, but the facts are that the chances have almost evaporated for this year, thanks to two crushing home losses to lowly rated teams. But for those who hold out hope, let's look at the math of the selection process. As everyone knows there are 68 teams selected for the final field. Twenty of those spots will be taken up by the minor majors. Those are one selection conferences and if the regular season champion loses in the conference tourney - well that is just too bad. The minor majors are American East, Atlantic South, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, CAA, CUSA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, SunBelt, Wac. 68-20 = 48 Next we have the mid-majors. The mid-major conferences (with this year's expected best teams) are: American (Wichita State, Cincy, SMU, Houston); MAC (Buffalo, Ball St, Ohio, W Mich, E Mich, C Mich); MVC (N Iowa, Loyola Chi, Missouri St, Valpo); Mountain West (Nevada, SD St, UNLV, Fresno St); WCC (Gonzaga, St Mary's, BYU, San Diego); Atlantic 10 (RI, VCU, St Bonaventure). Each conference is guaranteed a spot but, unlike the minor majors, a conference champion might still be selected if they lose the conference tourney. Rarely 3 or more may be selected. It varies by year but let's say that the six mid-majors get 9 sports. 48-9 = 39 That brings us to the major conferences which are ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC. There are 75 teams competing in those six conferences and they are competing for approximately 39 spots. On the average each of those conferences should get 6.5 spots. In stronger years they get more and in weaker years they get less. Since the Big Ten is down this year we can probably expect 5 or 6, but 7 is not an impossibility. It depends on the relative strength of the other major conferences. So what does it take to get in? The best clue is probably given us by the Pomeroy Ratings which are available back to 2002. Not only does it provide us with yearly ranking but it also provides us with NCAA seeds for each year. The most certain way to get into the field is to be ranked in the top 40. Over the last 16 years 92.8% of the teams that were rated in the top 40 were selected. Taking into account the teams that was ineligible and the number is probably closer to 95%. How low can you go? After the top 40 selections become more hit and miss. The average LAST major team over the 16 years was 54.9, with the lowest being 71 in 2002 and the highest being 39 in 2004. Over the last five years the bottom major teams were 56-62-50-64-60. In 12 of the 16 years the last major seed was between 9 and 12. After the loss to Ft Wayne Indiana is rated as #99 by Pomeroy.

I count it as slim and none. We would need to go on a big winning streak in the conference and finish in the top 4, probably not going to happen. Or, win the Big Ten tourney. Yeah and pigs can fly too. Don't think we are even make the picked over rejects tournament this year.

IU 76 - 68

IU 70 Ark St 49

IU 79-73

IU 76 Howard 58

Had some time to kill tonight and I'm starved for some Indiana basketball, so I hit YouTube for replays of the 2002 IU - Duke game and the IU - Oklahoma game. After the Oklahoma game the camera zeroed in of 3-year-old Antoine Davis, the son of then IU coach Mike Davis. Then I started thinking. If Antoine was 3 back then he would be about ready to finish high school and whatever happened to him. It didn't take much searching to find out. Turns out the young man turned out to be a pretty good basketball players and has committed to play next year for the University of Houston. He is listed at 6-1 and 160# and is listed as either a 3-star or 2-star player, depending on the listing. Just thought I'd give everyone a smile.

IU 73 ISU 58

I missed that. Sorry to repeat old news. Everybody move along there is nothing to see here.

97-57 IU

I go back a long way as an IU fan. I grew up watching IU play on channel 4 out of Indianapolis and as a result, when the time came, I attended and graduated from IU in 1969. For me there were two players that I idolized in my youth, Jimmy Rayl and Archie Dees. From the time I got my first basketball and dad put up a hoop I reenacted over and over again the plays that I had seen my heroes make on TV. Oh how I wanted to shoot the ball from outside like Jimmy or have unstoppable inside moves like Archie. I know a lot of you on here are much younger than me and you have no recollection of the days before coach Knight came to Bloomington, but take my word for it that Indiana basketball did not start with Robert Montgomery Knight. The glorious history of Indiana basketball goes much farther back, even farther back than me. If you missed seeing Archie Dees play you missed something very special. He was one of only three players to win Big Ten MVP honors in back to back years. The other two were Jerry Lucas and Scott May. That, my friend, is very select company. Time moves on for all of us but for me a little piece of my childhood died today when I heard the word that Archie had passed. It makes me want to hit the driveway and put up a few hook shots in memory of the big guy. As a Hoosier player he was something special. In some ways he has never been matched.

As much as I hated to see IU lose to Michigan, I can't help but wonder if it is for the best.  The only way that we were going to improve out seed for the NCAA tourney is if we won the BTT.  But would it have been worth it?  We have players nursing injuries and playing them in the BTT only increased the possibility that they would re-injure themselves.  Can't see how the extra week of rest and healing can't work out to our favor.  So we don't get a #2 seed.  Big deal.  We are easily in and will probably draw somewhere between a 3 and 5.  I'd be happy at this point with a #4.  At full strength, healthy, rested and focused I like our chances.  I guess I'm one of those half full guys.

I know everyone is upset any time IU loses, myself included.  However, stop for a second and ask yourself which tournament you want to win -   The Big Ten or the NCAA and don't give me the line that you want to win both.  Everybody wants to win both.  We lost Friday primarily because Hartman, Morgan and Johnson are dealing with injuries and that forced IU to put some pretty strange combinations on the floor.  Yogi also took some brutal blows on Friday.   If we are in foul trouble the combinations get even stranger.  We don't have the solid depth that we had only a few weeks ago and that is changing how we are playing.  Can't be helped.  Burton and Niego have now entered the picture as the next men up because of the injury problems.  Or, would you rather go with the starters all the way and grind them down.  They aren't machines, they are flesh and blood and subject to fatigue.   Now do you want to keep pushing players back on the floor who obviously aren't 100% or would you rather have them working with the trainers and doctors in an attempt to go into the NCAA with the strongest team possible?  Keep your eye on the prize.  IU should welcome the extra time off.  Bet our last final four team would have liked to have had a healthy Coverdale and our last Sweet 16 team would have liked to have had a healthy Hulls.  Don't want to see a repeat of that this year.

www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/   Just looked up the odds in Vegas for an IU victory in the NCAA tournament and they are offering 45-1.  Seems to me that is a bit long.  Play this tourney 45 times and IU will get on a roll and win at least once.  I'm not saying that we are gong to win this year but for $10 you get a chance for a $450 return and I'll take those odds.  Considering that there are no overwhelming favorites this year the line makers have established Michigan State as the favorite to win it all.  IU is the 23rd team listed, which I think is ridiculous.  Wonder what the odds were a couple of months ago when we got no respect?

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (2/22/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Remaining Games Indiana                4-2          8-1          12-3       22-6       Ill (A), Iowa (A), Mary (H) Iowa                     5-2          6-1          11-3       20-5       Wisc (H), OSU (A), IU (H), Mich (A) Maryland             4-3          7-1          11-4       23-5      PU (A), Ill (H),  IU (A) Ohio State           1-5          9-0          10-5       18-10     MSU (H), Iowa (H), MSU (A) Mich St                 4-4          5-1          9-5          22-5       OSU (A), Penn St (H), Rut (A), OSU (H) Wisconsin            3-4          6-1          9-5          17-10     Iowa (A), Mich (H), Minn (A), PU (A) Michigan              2-5          7-1          9-6          19-9       NW (H), Wisc (A), Iowa (H) Purdue                 3-5          6-1          9-6          21-7       Mary ((H), Neb (A), Wisc (H) Nebraska             1-7          5-2          6-9          14-14     Penn St (A), PU (H), NW (A) Northwestern       1-6          4-3          5-9          17-10     Mich (A), Rut (H), Penn St (A), Neb (H) Penn St               2-7          3-2          5-9          14-13     Neb (H), MSU (A), NW (H), Ill (H) Illinois                   1-6          3-4          4-10       12-15     IU (H), Minn (H), Mary (A), Penn St (A) Minnesota            1-7          0-6          1-13         7-19     Rut (H), Ill (A), Wisc (H), Rut (A) Rutgers                0-7          0-7          0-14         6-21     Minn (A), NW (A), MSU (H), Minn (H)       Indiana sweeps we win outright.  Suddenly the path isn't completely clear for Iowa.  First a hot Wisconsin then upset minded OSU on the road before IU and then an away game at Michigan.  With Purdue and Indiana on the road and being a game back in the loss column, Maryland needs help.  Ohio finishes with a murderers row.  MSU is the only team that is done with the top half of the conference (excluding OSU) but can't win the conference without A LOT OF HELP.   As to the bottom it looks like Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers are locks to play on the first day of the Big 10 tourney.  Nebraska, Northwestern, and Penn State are fighting to avoid the other spot.  IU, Iowa and Maryland are almost locks to get double byes.  The fourth double bye should probably go to Michigan State but who knows what crazy upsets might happen.   Have fun figuring how the rest of the season is going to play out.

68 years young   Don't see what is gained by playing the BTT except putting more money in the bank for the schools.  The season title is far more important because you need quality over an extended period to win.  In a tourney you can get hot and go on a binge.  That binge is seldom carried over to the big tourney.   Can't see how it will make any difference on who gets into the NCAA tourney.  It increases the possibility of injury and wears out teams that should be resting for the task ahead.  Ask yourself, which do you most remember the seasonal champion or the tourney champion.  Personally I can't remember who wins the BTT but I usually do remember the seasonal champion.

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (3/1/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Remaining Games Indiana                 5-2          9-1          14-3       24-6       Mary (H) Mich St                 4-4          7-1          11-5       24-5       Rut (A), OSU (H) Maryland              4-4          7-1          11-5       23-6      Ill (H),  IU (A) Wisconsin            5-4          6-1          11-5       19-10     Minn (A), PU (A) Purdue                 4-5          7-1          11-6       23-7       Wisc (H) Iowa                      5-4          6-2          11-6       20-8       Mich (A) Ohio State            2-6          9-0          11-6       19-11     MSU (A) Michigan               2-6          8-1          10-7       20-10     Iowa (H) Northwestern        1-7          5-3          6-10       18-11     Penn St (A), Neb (H) Penn St                2-8          4-2          6-10       15-14     NW (H), Ill (H) Nebraska             1-8          5-3          6-11       14-16     NW (A) Illinois                   1-6          4-5          5-11       13-16     Mary (A), Penn St (A) Minnesota            1-7          1-7          2-14         9-20     Wisc (H), Rut (A) Rutgers                0-7          0-9          0-16         6-23     MSU (H), Minn (H)          Not much left to calculate but the seeds for the Big 10 tourney.  Boy, does it make me happy to see the Hoosiers all alone on top.   Do you realize that both the Purdue and Iowa results turned around basket interference calls in the last seconds.  How often do you see that call?   IU has beaten everybody in the conference except Maryland, MSU and Penn State.  Penn State?  when you look back it is hard to find a game that IU shouldn't have won.  Nobody was going to beat Duke in the Big 10-ACC challenge.  They were just unconscious that night.  When do we ever beat MSU up there.  Think we were going to lose that one too.  The Wisconsin loss doesn't look so bad now considering what Wisconsin has done since.  We could/should have won that one.  As to the losses at Maui, we weren't ready to play top ball yet.  If we had won the first game we would have probably lost the next two anyway.  Penn State is still a mystery to me but on any given night anybody can beat anybody so I guess that game was just a matter of the basketball gods being fickle.  Now, ask yourself, when was the last time you could recall all of IU's losses from memory?  Thing is, I can't think of any games that IU won that we shouldn't have won.  It has been an amazing season that is still not over.

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (2/28/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Remaining Games Indiana                 4-2          9-1          13-3       23-6       Iowa (A), Mary (H) Mich St                 4-4          7-1          11-5       24-5       Rut (A), OSU (H) Maryland              4-4          7-1          11-5       23-6      Ill (H),  IU (A) Iowa                      5-3          6-2          11-5       20-7       IU (H), Mich (A) Wisconsin            5-4          6-1          11-5       19-10     Minn (A), PU (A) Ohio State           2-6          9-0          11-6       19-11     MSU (A) Purdue                 4-5          6-1          10-6       22-7       Neb (A), Wisc (H) Michigan              2-6          8-1          10-7       20-10     Iowa (H) Northwestern       1-7          5-3          6-10       18-11     Penn St (A), Neb (H) Penn St                2-8          4-2          6-10       15-14     NW (H), Ill (H) Nebraska             1-7          5-3          6-10       14-15     PU (H), NW (A) Illinois                  1-6          4-5          5-11       13-16     Mary (A), Penn St (A) Minnesota           1-7          1-7          2-14         9-20     Wisc (H), Rut (A) Rutgers               0-7          0-9          0-16         6-23     MSU (H), Minn (H)          By now everybody knows that IU has clinched a tie for the Big Ten championship.  But, guys, the season isn't over.  We have two games left to play against Iowa and Maryland and there is a potential disaster awaiting around the bend.  We win either game and we win outright.  We lose both games and there is a high probability that we end up in a five way tie for first.  We have 3 losses and MSU, Maryland, Iowa and Wisconsin have 5.  However, it we lose two and all four win out, which is possible because they don't play each other, we all end with 5 losses and in a tie which will go to tiebreakers for the Big Ten tourney seeding.  Let's hope that we don't end up in that situation.   On the bottom of the pile Minnesota and Rutgers have clinched spots on the first day of the Big Ten tourney.  Northwestern, Penn State and Nebraska (with 10 losses each) and Illinois (with 11 losses) are fighting it out to avoid playing on the first day.  Two of the four are going to fill in the last two spots on the bottom of the bracket.   Who would have thought that Northwestern has a chance for 20 wins.   This should be a very interesting week.

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (2/24/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Remaining Games Indiana                4-2          8-1          12-3       22-6       Ill (A), Iowa (A), Mary (H) Maryland             4-3          7-1          11-4       23-5      PU (A), Ill (H),  IU (A) Iowa                     5-3          6-1          11-4       20-6       OSU (A), IU (H), Mich (A) Mich St                4-4          6-1          10-5       23-5       Penn St (H), Rut (A), OSU (H) Wisconsin           4-4          6-1          10-5       18-10     Mich (H), Minn (A), PU (A) Ohio State           1-6          9-0          10-6       18-11     Iowa (H), MSU (A) Michigan              2-5          8-1          10-6       20-9       Wisc (A), Iowa (H) Purdue                 3-5          6-1          9-6          21-7       Mary ((H), Neb (A), Wisc (H) Nebraska             1-7          5-2          6-9          14-14     Penn St (A), PU (H), NW (A) Penn St                2-7          3-2          5-9          14-13     Neb (H), MSU (A), NW (H), Ill (H) Northwestern       1-7          4-3          5-10       17-11     Rut (H), Penn St (A), Neb (H) Illinois                   1-6          3-4          4-10       12-15     IU (H), Minn (H), Mary (A), Penn St (A) Minnesota            1-7          1-6          2-13         9-19     Ill (A), Wisc (H), Rut (A) Rutgers                0-7          0-8          0-15         6-22     NW (A), MSU (H), Minn (H)           The loss by Iowa to Wisconsin certainly sharpens the picture considerably.  If Indiana wins 2 of the next 3 we are guaranteed at least a tie for the conference championship.  We beat Illinois and Iowa but lose to Maryland we probably tie with Maryland for the title unless Purdue helps us by beating Maryland.  If we beat Illinois and Maryland we probably tie with Iowa, if Iowa can beat OSU on the road and Michigan on the road.  If we lose to Illinois but beat Iowa and Maryland we win outright.  Who would have thought it would come down to this.   Somebody better find a rule book and start figuring out the tie breakers between MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue.  After the top three it is going to be a tight fight to the finish for everyone between 4 and 8.  I don't like OSU's chances.  Would be surprised if the Big Ten doesn't get 7 into the big dance.   Sure wish we had a healthy Robert Johnson for the Illinois game.  I don't like to think we might depend on Niego for long stretches or the thought of Hartman or Williams at guard.  Go Hoosiers!!!!

Thanks for the tie breaking procedure.  I just got a major headache.  Let's just hope IU finishes #1, then the rest can fight it out.  Don't want to meet MSU before the finals.  I think they have our number.  We can take anyone else.