BottomLine

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (2/14/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Games left with top 7 Iowa                      5-2          6-0          11-2       20-5       Wisc (H), IU (H), Mich (A) Indiana                 3-2          7-1          10-3       20-6       PU (H), Iowa (A), Mary (H) Maryland             3-3          7-0          10-3       22-4       Mich (H), PU (A), IU (A) Michigan              2-4          7-0          9-4          19-7       Mary (A), Wisc (A), Iowa (H) Wisconsin            3-3          5-1          8-4          16-9       MSU (A), Iowa (A), Mich (H), PU (A) Purdue                 3-4          5-1          8-5          20-6       IU (A), Mary ((H), Wisc (H) Mich St                 3-4          5-1          8-5          21-5       Wisc (H) Ohio State           0-5          8-0          8-5          16-10     Mich (H), MSU (H), Iowa (H), MSU (A) Nebraska            1-6          5-1          6-7          14-12     Wisc (A), IU (A), PU (H) Northwestern      1-5          4-3          5-8          17-9       PU (A), Mich (A) Illinois                  1-5          2-4          3-9          11-14     Wisc (A), IU (H), Mary (A) Penn St              1-7          2-2          3-9          12-13     Iowa (H), MSU (A) Rutgers              0-7          0-5          0-12       6-19       MSU (H)               Minnesota          0-7          0-6          0-13       6-19       Mary (H), Wisc (H)   With only 5 or 6 games remaining until the end of the Big Ten regular season some things are coming into sharper focus.  Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers and Minnesota have been mathematically eliminated from winning the conference.  The same is probably true of Nebraska but at this point I don't want to figure out the possible permutations.  At this point the record of the bottom 7 is 4-38 against the top 7 for a 9.5% win percentage.  I can never remember the bottom of the conference being this bad.   Iowa, with a one game lead, controls their own fate but they better not look beyond Wisconsin, the hottest team in the league.  A loss to IU could set up the possibility of a three way tie but that Wisconsin game looms as a stumbling block, especially after squeaking against Minnesota.   Maryland needs help to win outright or tie.   If Indiana sweeps Indiana wins outright.  An IU loss to Maryland in the final game sets up the possibility of a Maryland - Iowa tie and the Hoosier finishing third.  Assuming that all three teams win their other games.  There is still a lot of basketball to be played.   We are also looking at seeding for the Big Ten Tourney.  Seeds 1-4 get a double bye.  Seeds 5-10 get a one game bye.  Seeds 11-14 get no bye and must play five games to win the tourney.   Significantly 1-4-5-8-9-12-13 are in the top bracket.  2-3-6-7-10-11-14 are in the lower bracket.  Where Wisconsin and Michigan State end up could have a significant impact on the tourney results.  Personally, I'd rather not play either again.   At this point all IU can do is take them one at a time and get back to winning.

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (2/18/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Remaining Games Indiana                3-2          8-1          11-3       21-6       PU (H), Ill (A), Iowa (A), Mary (H) Iowa                     5-2          6-1          11-3       20-5       Wisc (H), OSU (A), IU (H), Mich (A) Maryland             3-3          7-1          10-4       22-5       Mich (H), PU (A), Ill (H),  IU (A) Mich St                4-4          5-1          9-5          22-5       OSU (A), Penn St (H), Rut (A), OSU (H) Purdue                3-4          6-1          9-5          21-6       IU (A), Mary ((H), Neb (A), Wisc (H) Michigan             2-4          7-1          9-5          19-8       Mary (A), NW (H), Wisc (A), Iowa (H) Ohio State          1-5          8-0          9-5          17-10     Neb (A), MSU (H), Iowa (H), MSU (A) Wisconsin           3-4          5-1          8-5          16-10     Ill (H), Iowa (A), Mich (H), Minn (A), PU (A) Nebraska            1-7          5-1          6-8          14-13     OSU (H), Penn St (A), PU (H), NW (A) Northwestern      1-6          4-3          5-9          17-10     Mich (A), Rut (H), Penn St (A), Neb (H) Penn St               2-7          2-2          4-9          13-13     Rut (A), Neb (H), MSU (A), NW (H), Ill (H) Illinois                  1-5          3-4          4-9          12-14     Wisc (A), IU (H), Minn (H), Mary (A), P St (A) Minnesota           1-7          0-6          1-13         7-19     Rut (H), Ill (A), Wisc (H), Rut (A) Rutgers               0-7          0-6          0-13         6-20     Penn St (H), Minn (A), NW (A), MSU (H), Minn (H)             After the upsets of Michigan, Iowa and Maryland anything might happen.  The dogs from the pack are starting to close in.  Hard to see Michigan and Ohio State sustain and time is running out for Wisconsin.  Indiana has a must win tomorrow.  Has Iowa peaked.  The remaining schedule isn't looking as favorable.

Don't go overboard on Niegro.  Everybody loves the underdog but he is a role player and he is doing fine filling his role.  At this point in his career he has been pushed into service because of our lack of depth at guard because of Blackmon's injury. He  isn't ready to be pushed much farther or his shortcomings will become more apparent.  As to the future, we will see what happens.

Loved Troy when he was a freshman.  Thought he was okay last year.  This year every time he gets the ball on top I want to throw something at the TV.  His bull rushes and wild out of control shots kill the offense.  Everyone stands around when Troy gets the ball out front because the offense comes to a standstill.  Then the turnovers are maddening.  Crean benched him as a starter in Maui and his mother had a meltdown.  That, I believe, tells you something.  Crean has been sitting him down more and more for poor play and Troy still doesn't get it.  I don't think he ever will.  He is a great athlete but a pretty sorry basketball player.  So the choice is put up with what we have or start Anunoby and run the risk that Troy blows up the team with a sour attitude.  If it were my team I'd take the risk.  The goal is to put a better team on the floor.  I'd put Troy right next to me on the bench and tell him he is now the sixth man.  His job is to watch the action and figure what he can do to help because he is always going to be the first sub and he needs to bring high energy when he sets foot on that floor.  Above all he must play team ball, not hero ball.  From there his playing time would depend on his effectiveness.

Exactly right.  At that point Johnson was getting a breather.

I think the new NBA system might change things considerably.  Invite about 50 athletes and evaluate them, without any threats that they will lose their eligibility.   If you are an underclassman and you don't get invited, that is a big NO for your future.  If you do get invited and get a negative report, go back to school.  The NCAA is getting tired of losing kids that should not go and the NBA is getting tired of drafting on potential.  Maybe the new system will work out, especially if it helps kids make the right choices.  Bottom line, I'm not sure any of our underclassmen get invited.  Blackmon is still in recovery.  Bryant still needs seasoning.  Can't imagine Williams playing in the NBA right now.  We are actually having a discussion about whether he should be starting for IU and the NBA is a whole new ball game.  I can see Williams looking for another school where his talents are better "appreciated", especially if he is on schedule to graduate after three years.  Can you imaging next year being "Troy's" team? The maturity would be outstanding (sarcasm).   I guess I'm one of those glass half full guys but I like the way the pieces are coming together for next year.  It's Crean's team.  Let him finish the job.  If he screws it up, then we will see what happens.  BTW losing Yogi is a big deal but I think we will do fine at PG next year.  Either the kid from Pitt, Newkirk, gets the spot or it goes to some hot show freshman.

Niegro was on the floor for only one reason last night.  With Blackmon gone we are short guards and Yogi was gassed.  He was in the game to buy time for Yogi to get a breather.  Would he continue to get stops?  Would he score more baskets?  Don't know.  If Yogi is ready to go back in he goes back in.  Who would you rather have on the floor - a walk-on freshman or a senior MVP candidate?

We are losing one senior starter this year.  Williams will be back unless he graduates in three years and becomes a senior transfer.  NBA camp (if he gets an invite) is going to tell him to go back and work on consistency.  Blackmon will be back.  Can't play NBA defense and has injury problems.  Bryant might leave but he needs a lot more seasoning.  Hartman and Johnson will be back.  We have young improving players on the bench and some good freshmen coming in.  The depth that Zeisloft and Bielfeldt give us off the bench can be replaced with kids that are potential starters down the road.  In short IU should be better next year than this year.  And, isn't that the kind of year to year consistency that MSU and Wisconsin have demonstrated.  The roster is finally starting to balance itself out.  Why would we blow all that up by changing the coach now?

I think Tom Crean in the past has subbed players a lot because he wants to manage their minutes and keep fresh players on the floor.  It is part of the strategy of bringing fatigue to the game on the part of our opponent.  I've always thought in the past that he had a schedule beforehand and tried to stick to that.  Many of his "bad" subs in the past were because the sub was waiting at the table to come in, when there was a break in the action, and a player being subbed for was just getting hot after his replacement had reported in.  As the action goes up and down on the court you can see the new subs sitting on the floor waiting a break in the action.  Haven't noticed that as much this year.  I have seen Crean call players back to the bench from the scorer's table.  I think he has cut down of mass substitutions.  I think that some players, Troy Williams in particular, are on a much shorter leash.  The same was true of Blackmon before his injury.  Has Crean changed?  Probably a bit but it could also be a factor of early foul trouble, particularly to Hartman and Bryant, that takes away much of his flexibility.  We are deep this year but not as deep as Crean would like.  We are seeing more of a 9 man rotation this year instead of the 14 we have seen in the past.

Why not include the games with the bottom 7?  The bottom 7 are 4-39 against the top 7 (That is why they are in the bottom 7) for a win percentage of 9.3%.  Feel sorry for poor Rutgers.  7 of their first 11 were against the top of the league.  Only one of their last seven is against the top 7.  To this point they have probably played the toughest schedule in the league.  Minnesota, however, has 4 top 7 opponents in it's last 7.  I'm thinking that Rutgers manages to finish above Minnesota, if anyone cares at this point.  Northwestern and Penn State also finish up with easier schedules.  Why is that important?  Start thinking about seeding for the Big Ten tourney.  The bottom four must play two extra games (5 total) to win and 5-10 must play an extra game (4 games).  The top four seeds only need to win 3 games.

Big Ten Standings and Schedule (2/8/16) Top 7 Rec - Bottom 7 Rec - BIG Rec - Overall Rec- Games left with top 7 Iowa                      5-1          5-0          10-1       19-4       IU (A), Wisc (H), IU (H), Mich (A) Maryland             3-2          7-0          10-2       21-3       Wisc (H), Mich (H), PU (A), IU (A) Indiana                 2-1          7-1          9-2          19-5       Iowa (H), MSU (A), PU (H), Iowa (A), Mary (H) Mich St                 2-3          5-1          7-4          20-4       PU (A), IU (H), Wisc (H) Purdue                 2-3          5-1          7-4          19-5       MSU (H), Mich (A), IU (A), Mary ((H), Wisc (H) Michigan             1-4          6-0          7-4          17-7       PU (H), Mary (A), Wisc (A), Iowa (H) Wisconsin           2-3          4-1          6-4          14-9       Mary (A), MSU (A), Iowa (A), Mich (H), PU (A) Ohio State          0-5          6-0          6-5          14-10     Mich (H), MSU (H), Iowa (H), MSU (A) Nebraska             1-5          4-1          5-6          13-11     Wisc (A), IU (A), PU (H) Northwestern      1-5          3-2          4-7          16-8       PU (A), Mich (A) Penn St              1-7          2-1          3-8          12-12     Iowa (H), MSU (A) Illinois                  1-5          2-3          3-8          11-13     Wisc (A), IU (H), Mary (A) Minnesota          0-5          0-6          0-11       6-17       Mich (H), Iowa (A), Mary (H), Wisc (H) Rutgers              0-7          0-4          0-11       6-18       MSU (H)      With IU's big game coming up with Iowa this week, it is time to take a look at the remaining schedule and try to guess how this season is going to work out.   For the championship only two teams hold their fate in their own hands.  That would be Iowa and IU.  IU is a game down in the loss column but has two games remaining with Iowa.  IU is tied with Maryland in the loss column but has a single game scheduled.  Maryland and the other contenders can not win on their own - they need help.  Being one game down in the loss column, Maryland needs someone to beat Iowa.  Maryland can't do it because they have no more meetings.  If Iowa wins out they win the conference.  If IU wins out we win the conference.   Wisconsin, with only a 5 point road loss at Northwestern keeping them out of sole position of fourth place, is probably set up to be the biggest spoiler.  They have single games remaining with all of the top group, except IU.   If we lose to Iowa this week, the race becomes a two horse race between Iowa and Maryland and a struggle to avoid the unexpected upset.   Anyway, have some fun looking at the possibilities   Go Hoosiers!

By this time most fans have determined that the top six teams in the conference are Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Purdue and Michigan State.  I wondered how the conference is doing against those six teams and the results were really interesting.  Only one team, Iowa, has a winning record against the top six and only one team, Wisconsin, has more than one win (2).  The record for the top six against the bottom eight is 35-4.  The record of the bottom eight against the top six is thus 4-35.  Looks like everyone is beating up on the bottom of the conference.  I can't remember the conference ever being so divided between the haves and have nots.  The records against the top six and against the bottom eight are as follows:   Iowa (5-1, 3-0) Indiana (0-0, 8-1) Wisconsin (2-3, 3-1) Maryland (1-2, 7-0) Michigan (1-2, 6-0) Purdue (1-2, 6-1) Michigan State (1-2, 5-2) Illinois (1-3, 1-4) Nebraska (1-4, 3-1) Ohio State (0-4, 6-0) Northwestern (0-5, 3-2) Penn State (0-5, 2-2) Minnesota (0-5, 0-5) Rutgers (0-6, 0-3)

Sorry, I didn't explain myself well.  Iowa has only three games left against the top six.  They have two road games at IU and Michigan and a home game against IU.  Other than that they are playing the bottom feeders.  They now get a schedule similar to IU's first half and we get a schedule similar to Iowa's first half.  If Iowa wins the conference they won it primarily in the first nine games and now all they need to do is avoid upsets.  The road gets much tougher ahead for the Hoosiers.  Back in was probable a poor choice of words but I think you can see what I'm saying.  Our future is in our own hands but we need to prove that we can beat the top teams if we hope to keep pace.

The only team that is racking up "good" wins is Iowa.  They will back in to the title is form holds.  Wisconsin might be ready to break out of the bottom bunch.  Can the Big 10 send 7 to the NCAA?

Born and raised in southern Indiana.  Never missed an IU game on the tube from the late 50's on.  Graduated from IU in '69 and moved to Illinois to teach.  Retired in 2013.  Still bleed cream and crimson.  Youngest daughter was class of 2000.