BottomLine

Brunk starts. Take it to the bank. Does Brunk finish? Not with the game on the line. Archie will go with more versatile players to finish. Start of not start he will play the same amount of minutes.

They have 3 starters left and two football players on the bench. If we don't win this one we don't deserve to go to the dance. Nuff said! IU 82 Part of a team from Nebraska 60

Not busting my brain here. Just looking forward to watching the game. 68-66 Hoosiers

Uncle! Hoosiers 72-66

I fell on my head with my pick in the Purdue game. Know what? If I had it to do over I'd still pick the Hoosiers. We go jobbed on the road. Two 9 minute dry stretches and we still only lost by 8. I have a feeling about this game. Illinois has a 19-9 72.5-64.7 line. We are 18-10 71.5-67.0. They are 12-3 at home and we are 2-7 in away games. I hate to pick obnoxious teams like Purdue and Illinois (and I live in Illinois). Didn't send my kids there though (Iowa and IU). Are we truly a bottom feeder in the Big 10? All of Illinois wins have been agains the bottom half of the conference. Against the top half they are terrible. Illinois comes into this game following a 4 game losing streak, followed by wins over Penn State, Northwestern and Nebraska. So in there last 7 games only the Penn State win is anything special. In other words Illinois is beatable, even at home, if we play well. Isn't that the big question? Looking for a bounce back game by the good guys. If we want to go to the big dance we need to prove it by playing well against teams that are going to the tourney. IU 70 Illini 69

It isn't fun picking against the Hoosiers, especially when they are playing Purdue. This game should be a slam dunk for the Boilermakers. They handled the Hoosiers with ease in Bloomington on Bob Knight Day when the game really meant something. You would think the game at West Lafayette would be even tougher. Is there a glimmer of hope? You betcha. Against common opponents IU is 14-13 and Purdue is 9-16. Against "LIke" opponents IU is 9-9 and Purdue is 7-13. IU has the advantage in both cases. Purdue just isn't that good. IU is looking at a NCAA bid and Purdue should probably start thinking NIT. On the other hand we have the home/away problem. Purdue is 10-4 at home and IU is 2-6 away. That certainly doesn't count in our favor. IU has a better offense than Purdue. Yes, hard to believe. We are scoring 72.16/game and Purdue checks in at 68.55. That is a spread of almost 4 ponts in favor of the Hoosiers. On defense Purdue tops us 63.65 to 67.74. Again about a 4 point spread. Bottom LIne this looks like a close game, if both teams show up to play. Based on the home court advantage and the fact that Purdue beat us in Bloomington, I'd be a sucker to pick the Hoosiers. But this is a rivalry game and you can probably throw out everything that has happened in the past. Call me sucker for picking with my heart and not with my head. Hoosiers 72 Purdue 63 Let's shut up those "IU sucks" chants!

On paper IU doesn't win this game. So, the smart thing to do is to pick Penn State. However, I don't think it matter any longer. I don't think I've been out of the top 5 all year but I'm not going to catch fwgreenway. Unless he gets a sever case of the dumbs, he is going to win this season pulling away. Great job all year. If we were in a chess match I'd conceed. I guess I am conceeding. Taking a look at all the picks that are in so far, I think most of you agree. I hate to pick against the Hoosiers and then root for them to win. No fun in that and nothing to be gained Now on to the actual serious business of making a selection. Very interesting pattern for Indiana this year. When we are competitive we usually win. When we are going to lose we lose big. I don't care what the spread is for the game that pattern has held almost all season. I'm a pattern guy, if you haven't guessed. We have 15 Big 10 games in the books and only 4 have been decided by 6 points or less Maryleand -1, Michigan State +4, Northwestern +4, and Nebraska +6). That is why this team has been so frustrating. We have too many games where we just weren't competitive. Against common opponents PSU is 15-8 and we are 13-12. Against teams with "Like" ratings we are 8-9 and they are 12-6. IU is 13-3 at home and Penn State is 5-3 in away games. We average scoring 76 points/ game and Penn State averages 72. We both average giving up 68 points/game. Penn State won 8 games in a row in the Big 10 before stumbling against Illinois in their last. We all know how well IU have been playing. You have to give the edge to Penn State. That is why they are ranked and we are not even close. Penn State puts up between 20 and 25 3's/game and in their last three have hit 14-11-4. the four was against Illinois and so we know why they lost that game. So, duh, if we want to win this one we need to guard the 3-point line and force a repeat of the Illinois result. So, all of that said, I'm climbing out on a limb today and predict that the baskets and refs will be friendly to the Hoosiers. At least I can enjoy the game and not worry about standings. Indiana 80 - Penn State 72

Starting to get the feeling that it is time to stick a fork in these Hoosiers. They may be done. Minnesota is 12-12 on the year but 10-3 at home. Yes they may be as bad on the road as the Hoosiers. We are 16-9 but only 1-6 away from home and struggling. We don't even lose close on the road. To the point we suck on the road! We have the ability to win this game but something is really sour on this team. Might be the coaching. Might just be poor chemestry. Could be that too many just don't really care to put up the fight that is needed. Hate to pick big against the Hoosiers but it is what it is. Minnesota 80 Indiana 68

Here we go tossing coins again. It is amazing how a single win can change the whole atmosphere around this team. Lose four in a row and everybody is off the bandwagon. Win a single game and we are going to the final four. The truth is somewhere in the middle. Can we expect Green to play out of his mind again? I wish but more than likely he is going to throw up bricks all night just to see if he is "hot". Michigan's defense is not Iowa's defense. If he starts shooting off the dribble and forcing shots we are doomed. Watch to see if he falling away on his shot. If he is falling away he is in for a bad night. If past performance is any indicator, Green will be in hero mode. Some interesting stats about this game that give IU a glimmer of hope. Against common opponents IU is 11-5 and MIchigan is 9-7. Who would have thought? Against "Like" opponents MIchigan is 7-9 and IU is 6-8. Against the Sagarin top 25 Mich is 4-4 and IU 3-5. Against the top 50 it is Mich 5-7 and IU 3-5. Not a whole lot of difference there but the real backbreaker is this. Michigan's home record 10-4. Indiana's away record 1-5. Michigan has scored 10 or more 3's in 10 games this year, so we better be covering that line. Look for Michigan to put up about 25 3's. The game may turn on, not if IU is hot, but whether Michigan is not. I'll root for our guys anyway but I can't pick them this time. IU 67 MIchigan 73

Another fork in the road game. I'm still kicking myself over the Purdue game. Everything in my head said to pick the Boilers but my heart saw it the other way. Drats! Another opportunity lost. Thing is I'm about to do it again. On paper this is Iowa's game to lose. I know they are only 3-5 on the road, while IU is 12-3 at home. But Iowa can score the basketball and the Hoosiers are struggling, even with home cooking. According to Sagarin Iowa is 3-5 against the top 25 and IU is 2-4. Against the top 50 they are 8-5 while we check in at 4-7. Doesn't look good for the Hoosiers. Indiana is 9-12 against common opponents while Iowa has a winning record at 11-10. Against "like" opponents Iowa is 10-6 and IU is 6-8. Basically Iowa is a better team based on records. We are dragging a four game losing streak into this one and are starting to see our tourney chances start to dwindle. I guess you could say that we have our backs up to the wall and we desperately need to win this game. I feel that. Do the players? Do they even care? The doubts are growing. Don't we all wish we had that Maryland game back? I'll ignore my head again (never a good thing) and go with my gut feeling that the Hoosiers are going to play well in this one. I'm counting on the Iowa defense to be the Iowa defense and we can jump start the offense in this one. IU 79 Iowa 75

A lot of our offensive problems would go away if TJD could consistentyly hit a 10-15 foot jump shot. Watch the games, they leave him totally alone when he handles the ball away from the basket but double or triple team him under the bucket. That is why he goes to the foul lone so often. Most of his scores come off put backs and when teammates throw the ball up to the basket for him. Even Brunk is now starting to shoot that open shot from the foul line. When your bigs move away from the basket and don't shoot, it allows the defense to clog up the middle. That means that our guards still can't drive and with only two guard on the floor they aren't going to get many open 3's. The result is that our guard are stuck with shooting the ball off the dribble. Never a good practice from 3 point land. In shot our offense is a mess.

Couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I picked against the Hoosiers. We have had a week to get ready while Purdue wore themselves out by hitting 19 3's against Iowa. Boy, those Hawkeyes can sure play D-Fence! IU is 8-6 against common opponents. Against "like" opponents IU is 6-7 and Purdue is 6-9. IU is 12-2 at home and the guys from West Lafayette are 2-6 on the road. Home cooking, home fans and I hope some home officials and we can take this one. This isn't the 18-19 version of the Boilers and we aren't the 18-19 version of the Hoosiers. Let's turn this thing around! Hoosiers 70 Hoosier Nots - 66 All together now! Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks.

Praying you are right - for once.

There I was tooling along in second place and only 3 points out of first. Life was great! And then I tripped and fell on my noggin three times in a row. Owww that hurts. Dreams of glory have faded but not my desire to pick winners. After what we saw the other night at Penn State, how can we possibly win this game? This has certainly been a rollercoaster season. Could the loss of Thompson and Hunter have thrown the teams that far out of sync? Maybe, but then who knows if they will be available on Saturday? Ohio state isn't exactly destroying the world. They are doing a very good impersonation of the 18-19 Hoosiers. They have lost 7 of their last 8 and their only win was at hapless Northwestern. In addition Carton is on permanent leave from the team trying to get his head straight. We haven't done much better. We have lost 5 of our last 9. Despite all of their troubles OSU is 10-2 at home. Indiana is 1-4 in away games. Against "like" teams OSU is 6-6 and +4.8/game. Against "like" teams we are 3-6 and -4/game. The only positive is that we beat these guys in Bloomington. For the season we are pretty equal on offense 72.45 (OSU) compared to 72.6 (IU). They are about 4 points better on defense, 63.67 to 67.52. Out of contention for the big prize I don't feel bad about picking against the Hoosiers. We need to play a lot better to win this game. I'll still root like hell for my guys and hope I can be wrong four games in a row. OSU - 70 IU - 65

I think we have reached the point in the season where you can start throwing out all of the "expert" advice and start relying on gut feeling. I have a good feeling about this game. Penn St is about a 5 point favorite, depending on who you check. They are good at home as their 11-1 home record indicates. We, on the other hand, are 1-3 in true away gamer. Edge to Penn St. Seasonally Penn State has an edge in offense 76.45 to 72.68. We, on the other hand have a very slight edge in defense 68.26 to 68.56. On paper that probably gives an edge to Penn St. Overall since 2008 the record between the teams is 13-8 in favor of the Hoosiers. That stat isn't particularly meaningful but it does indicate that the programs have been competitive, but Penn St has struggled a bit more historically. With all that said my eyeball test says that IU is starting to come together and is playing better. If they don't screw up at the end and beat Maryland in their last game or if the Jackson-Davis shot at the end falls, people would probably be looking at this game differently. I predict that we are going to level out that home loss with a road win tonight. I'd be more confident betting against the spread but I think we can take this one straight up. It is gut check time for the Hoosiers. IU 76 Penn St 70

Wouldn't even think of trying to figure out what this game does to the standings. Double kick in the gonads. First we blow 6 six point lead with 1:08 to go and then we are informed about the death of Kobe immediately after the game. I'll let Str8Hoosiers go crazy going back and figuring what scratched scores will be added back or not. There were not many to pick Maryland. Guess we will just have to get the next one of the road against Penn State.

Fork in the road time again. Which way should I go this time? Zigged when I should have zagged last time and that plays a game with your mind. Not a lot of analysis this time. The memory of the disaster at Maryland is still fresh. If we let them run off to a big lead again we won't catch them again. Well duh! On the other hand Maryland hasn't been very good on the road this year and have a 1-4 record. They are scoring 58.6 and giving up 63.4 on the road. We are both 3-1 vs common opponents. We both lost in Madison. Vegas calls this one a 1 point game. That means that it could go either way. What the heck! If we can beat Michigan State, the best team in the conference, we can beat the second best. Hooisers 71 Turtles 66

Let's make this simple. IU 103 - Other 72

Congratulations to fwgreenway for opening up daylight in first place. HUGE congratulations to MoyeNeeded for picking the score for both teams and a big 145 points! Me? I stubbed my toe but I have a decent scratched score that I'll be bringing back. On to Maryland and another fork in the road. Don't mean to step on your toes Str8Hoosiers but I get excited and check the scores after the game.

Slept the night through without getting up to pee. +20. BTW a prune cocktail will take care of the constipation thing.

I hate games like this. I'm 72-years-old and I've been a dyed in the wool Hoosier fan since I was about 9. Think of Jimmy Rayl, Walt Bellemy and Archie Dees my heroes growing up. I will NEVER root against Indiana and NEVER miss a game if I can do anything to help it. On the other hand this is a contest and you don't win something like this picking with your heart and not your head. That is why I'm going with the Spartans and not the Hoosiers. With its best game, Indiana can win this. I hope the fans get into the game early and loud because we are going to need that to pull off an upset. And it would be an upset. Michigan State is the best team in the conference. I know the Big Ten is 7-41 on the road in conference. However, Michigan State has only been on the road in conference twice. They are 6-1 but 5 of those wins were at home. On the road they beat Northwestern and were crushed by Purdue. While Archie, at times, can't decide who to play, Michigan State has a solid lineup. Winston, Tillman, Brown and Henry seldom come off the floor. That isn't to say that the bench is a bunch of stiffs. It just says that this is a team that has some chemistry. We are still working on that. As to the numbers, IU comes up short across the board. We are 1-3 against the top 25. MSU is 2-1. Over the last 10 games MSU is 9-1 and we are 6-4. Against common opponents MSU is 3-0 and IU is 1-2. Against teams with similar records MSU is 7-3 and IU is 2-4. On average they outscore us on offense 78.3 to 75.1. They also top us on defense 63.6 to 66.2. We haven't been ranked once this year and Michigan state has been a top 10 dweller all year. Still despite all of that this could be a very close game. Who knows a 50/50 ball here and there, a good night rebounding the ball, Michigan foul trouble, a few fewer IU turnovers, or a few extra 3's fall and everything could turn out in IU's favor. Those are all big IF's. Vegas has this game at 141.5 o/u. MSU is favored by 3 so that makes the implied final score 72-69. I'm thinking that defense might be more important in this game than offense. MSU is averaging 71 in conference the that includes a 47 point stinker in West Lafayette. I see them scoring about 74 here and IU struggling to get to 70. That's it. But I hope it is the other way around. IU 70 MSU 74

Usually there are a few brave souls that post a prediction far in advance of the game. With MSU on the horizon it looks like everyone is taking a little longer for reflection. Which fork in the road do you take this time?

Brunk is a junior in eligibility and will be back next year.

17th game? Seems like the season just started. Well here we are in Nebraska playing a team that has a record of not playing well at home. They are only 5-4 at home this year. In short, they are no Rutgers. Rutgers is a team that is on the rise and has a chance to finish near the top of the standings. Nebraska does not. It is regrettable but reasonable to lose to Rutgers on the road. It is not reasonable to lose to Nebraska. They are 7-10 this year. Some rating systems only pick them to win one more game this year (Northwestern). I know IU had trouble scoring against Rutgers but so does everybody at Rutgers. They have given up an average of 57 over their last four games.. We can score on Nebraska as we proved by scoring 96 in overtime in Bloomington. Of course we also gave up 90. But overall we have a better offense and defense than Nebraska. We are averaging 74.6/game and they are giving up an average of 74.4. We are holding our opponents to 65.8 and Nebraska is scoring at a 72.5 clip. We have four common opponents. We are plus 21 and 3-1 against those opponents. Nebraska is -17 and 1-3. Advantage IU. They drove us crazy in Bloomington by driving at every opportunity. Our defense has improved since then and we have Phinisee, a good on ball defender, back as a regular. Jervay Green is questionable for this game. To bad. so sad. I don't think they will have as easy a time getting to the basket in this one. The big guys in Vegas have us winning by 74-68.5. I hope it isn't that close. I figure that we have to win a game on the road sooner or later and since we don't play Northwestern again this is the easiest one left. Over their last four game Nebraska has given up an average of 73 points/game. I think we will do slightly better. They have scored and average of 66. We can beat that. The crystal ball says. IU 75 Nebraska 64

Okay, I take whatever the final score is and pick Indiana to win. And, that is what I pick. LOL