Uwe Robb

sorry for the double post, thought this fits here as well.   [attachment=3406:stats.png]   I've been doing some KenPom research. It looks like a very safe assumption would be that our Final Four participants will be in the top 50 adj O & adj D on KenPoms rankings. Here is a list from 2002-2015. There are very few exceptions to this list. 6 to be exact. 2015 - Wisconsin (#54 D), 2011 - VCU (#84 D), 2006 - George Mason (#58 O), 2006 - LSU (#65 O), 2003 - Texas (#80 D), 2003 - Marquette (#119 D) Of these 6 teams 4 were balanced by the Overall #1 or #2 respective offense/defense is the opposing category. 2015 - Wisconsin (#1 O), 2006 - LSU (#2 D), 2003 - Texas (#1 O), 2003 - Marquette (#2 O). If you take the amount of teams that fall into this top 50/50 category each year it averages out to be 19.4. We are right on pace this year. If the tournament started today than 1 of the following 19 teams would be your National Champ and 4 of the 19 would more than likely be in the Final Four; Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Texas A&M, Xavier, Kansas, Texas, Michigan St, Iowa, Miami, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arizona, North Carolina, California, Gonzaga, USC, Syracuse. IU has only fallen into the category 3x in the 15 year period. 2002 - National Runner-Up 2007 - That one coaches 1st season (2nd Rd exit) 2013 - Sweet 16 loss   Log story short.....Good teams tend to advance fairly far in the tournament. Edit: Better pic of my Excel file

[attachment=3402:stats.png]   I've been doing some KenPom research. It looks like a very safe assumption would be that our Final Four participants will be in the top 50 adj O & adj D on KenPoms rankings. Here is a list from 2002-2015. There are very few exceptions to this list. 6 to be exact. 2015 - Wisconsin (#54 D), 2011 - VCU (#84 D), 2006 - George Mason (#58 O), 2006 - LSU (#65 O), 2003 - Texas (#80 D), 2003 - Marquette (#119 D) Of these 6 teams 4 were balanced by the Overall #1 or #2 respective offense/defense is the opposing category. 2015 - Wisconsin (#1 O), 2006 - LSU (#2 D), 2003 - Texas (#1 O), 2003 - Marquette (#2 O). If you take the amount of teams that fall into this top 50/50 category each year it averages out to be 19.4. We are right on pace this year. If the tournament started today than 1 of the following 19 teams would be your National Champ and 4 of the 19 would more than likely be in the Final Four; Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Texas A&M, Xavier, Kansas, Texas, Michigan St, Iowa, Miami, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arizona, North Carolina, California, Gonzaga, USC, Syracuse.   IU has only fallen into the category 3x in the 15 year period. 2002 - National Runner-Up 2007 - That one coaches 1st season (2nd Rd exit) 2013 - Sweet 16 loss     Log story short.....Good teams tend to advance fairly far in the tournament.   Edit: Better pic of my Excel file

I guess we will all just watch as it plays out.

I have seen him play and while I agree he is a man amongst boys in the NCAA and SEC. He is not a great shooter and he is a good ball handler for his size, but I don't see him being able to run the point or even play the 2. As of right now I just don't see him being better than Anthony Davis or KAT. I may put him on the Andrew Wiggins level. Wiggins was a highlight show in college, but still hasn't proved he can hit an outside jumper consistantly (currently .244 3 pt) Wiggins was also the next Lebron James when he was signing with Kansas and every game ESPN wanted to promote.   With that being said I have no clue what kind of work ethic the kid has. When he goes pro there will be no more NCAA hours limits. So he can easily get better at those skills I pointed out.   What it boils down to is what you ultimately think about Simmons. My 2nd question would be is there a 2nd player in the 2016 draft that comes close to having the impact that Simmons does?

Agreed, but Lebron proved last year he doesn't really even need them to just beat the East and make the finals.   Lebron is aging though.....

Yes, thank you. I guess that would drive my point home even further.   Simmons is more likely to win a Championship after he signs his first free-agency deal than he is in the first 3-4 after draft.

Conference tourneys will be on soon too. Might not make ESPN or EPSN2 until the championship game though.

I totally agree he is the #1 pick and will eventually be an All-Star in the NBA.   I am saying will he be the reason the Celtics, 76ers, Lakers or Suns beat Lebron James or Steph Curry in the Playoffs the next 3 years that are remaining on Brad Stevens contract?   Since 1992 only 3 #1 picks have went on to win a Championship. Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan and Lebron James. That is a pretty short list with some pretty special players.   Edit: Sorry my list was old. You can actually add Andrew Bogut to that list. Which doesn't help my argument at all.

I am intrigued now. Let me know if you guys see a Valpo game televised anytime soon.

Coaches like Brad Stevens don't care about the current state of a program. They have all the confidence in the world in themselves and their coaching abilities to turn these programs around. Why would he have ever took the Boston job if he cared about how the teams were currently playing?   In the NBA he is limited by the roster that Danny Ainge assembles as well as the salary cap. In college he can recruit any player he wants. He can sign as many McDonalds All Americans as possible. He would also have the resources provided by IU that are 2nd to none in the NCAA.   I am not arguing with you that Boston is a good job. It is. He has actually made it even better by making the team competative again. I am just saying that in your orginal post you said that "he is in the NBA for life" I seriously doubt that is true. It may not even be IU, could even be Duke. But for you to say that Boston is the holy grail of jobs and he is never leaving is just as much speculation as the IU fans that believe he will come back one day.   It is apples and oranges, but if you want to compare the two. IU's last conference championship was in 2013 Boston's was in 2010. IU has had 6 conference titles since 1987 Boston has had 2. IU currently sits T-2 in their conference Boston is 3rd place.   Boston put together a team of free agent all-stars and won 1 Championship in 2008 before that they had not won a Championship since 1986. IU's last Championship was 1987

Okay so the 4th best player in this years draft is going to get the Celtics past Lebron and the Splash brothers? Simmons can barely make the NCAA tourney, Ingram just got his team back in the top25 and Buddy Hield can't seem to beat Kansas, but they are going to be the answer to the Celtics winning a Championship?   I would guess they could sign Durant in free agency and they would still only move up one spot in the East to #2.   I also remember Brad saying a few years back that IU was his dream job. Not sure I've ever heard him say that about Boston. So I don't see how getting your dream job would ever be a downgrade?

No way they get the #1 pick. I doubt they even get the #5 pick.   I am an upper level Manager in a fortune 500 company. If my company wanted to change my title to Assitant Janitor and give me a 3 million dollar raise, then guess what. It's time to update my LinkedIn page because I am the new Assistant Janitor. 

I just read an article that had Danny Ainge saying that Brad Stevens is coaching them right out of their rebuilding plan.   He had planned on missing the playoffs Brad's first 2-3 years and getting top 8th-15th picks and now that Brad has his team rolling the 16th-22nd picks they are projected to get are not worth near as much on the trade market.   I am not saying this thinking they will fire BS for winning, but it is interesting and makes sense. If they can't continue to build in the draft or make a blockbuster trade the team could top out around a 4-6 place finish in the East.

"Brad Stevens left Butler to coach the Boston Celtics on July 4th weekend in 2013 in one of the biggest coaching shockers this decade. Stevens had rebuffed all comers after guiding the Bulldogs to the Final 4 in 2010 and 2011, even though he could have had just about any job he wanted. But the Celtics more than tripled his 2011 salary ($1.2 million), lavishing the then-36-year old with a 6-year, $22 million deal, and he couldn’t resist the pull of one of the most storied franchises in sports. Stevens has never discussed returning to college coaching and NBA sources said he is totally invested in the Celtics. He wants to restore the organization to a contender and also has 3 more years on his contract. The organization has made a sizeable investment in his talents and expects him to be around for awhile." Sounds like exactly what Stevens said at Butler for a couple years. Then, he left. Is it downgrading if IU pays him more?  

Conference championships are conference championships. It doesn't matter the conference. The competition and talent is usually comparable. So him winning that often is impressive regardless of conference. Just like Bo Ryan winning D2.

Every loss   Ctrl + C Ctrl + V

Frustrating loss for UCLA. They had that game won for 37 min.

I personally like to turn on a Bill Walton game, close my eyes and wait and see how long it takes me to realize he is broadcasting a basketball game.

I read on here that you have a certain percentage of the fan base that is happy with what TC is doing, a certain percentage that is not happy. A certain percentage that will be happy if XYZ happens. A certain percentage that will never be happy regardless of what he does. It is a split fan base to say the least. I hate to even try to compare Crean to Bob Knight, but when he was at the helm I would venture to say you had a very very small percentage that was not in favor of the man from 1974-1995. From around 1996-2001 was a whole different story. More and more people were starting to talk (whisper) about a change at IU. This was difficult since the man had done so much for the iubb program. So we probably ended up holding on to him a few years too long in the end.   We are in a society today where NFL coaches get 1 year to try to turn a team around. Not saying these demands are ideal.   Crean has had 8 years. I am not going to try to say where I think the team should be or how many wins or how many B1G titles or how deep in the tournament he should go. I just judge it by the fan base. We are still split and if half of the fanbase does not want the coach then I think deep down I know what the answer should be.   With all of that said I think one of the only coaches that could unite the fan base again would be Brad Stevens. If we can get him tomorrow then I say fire Crean. If we can get him in a year then I say we keep Crean a year. If we can get him in two years I say we keep Crean 2 years. I am not sure what the magic number is because I know we cannot hire an interim HC while we wait for BS. These kids sign 4 year deals and expect a coach to be here for the length of their scholarships. I just hope Glass can figure this out thru some back door channels.   And while I wait for BS then I really am rooting as hard as I can for TC and his boys. I would like nothing better than to win a couple conference titles and Final Four while I am waiting for BS to show up. I just think each year we finish 4-6 in B1G with an early exit in NCAA then the percentage of the fanbase shifts more and more.

Yeah he is listed on this list @ #95 I guess the question would be how high of a pick do you have to be to be projected in the NBA? Since they only have 2 rounds maybe the top 64?   You could probably add Virginia to the list. Uthoff is also on the list, but as a SF. I imagine the tweet was to point out that Guard play weighs big in the tournament.

I understand what you are saying. I do see that with TB. Luckily he has stopped attempting 3's like he was in non-conference schedule.   It also feels like he is trying to turn Troy and/or Colin into a poor man's Denzel Valentine. At some point throughout the year he has had those two bringing the ball up the court and initiating our offense. Why on God's green earth would you do this when you have a top 20 finalist for the Wooden award at PG on your team?

Looking back at his tweet it did say DraftExpress.com projected NBA guard.   That is why Selden (#36 ranked prospect) would fall under the criteria for Kansas.   Interesting because here is list of teams that are top 30 in both O/D but do not have a projected player on the list.   Iowa Virginia West Virginia

Not sure the exact numbers but I thought I read in a thread that more often than not the National Champion was in the top 30 in KenPom adjusted O and D.   I also read tweet from Mark Titus that every NC team since 2003 has had an NBA guard on it's roster. (I didn't fact check this)   If both of these are true then your possible NC this year is on the following list....   Oklahoma Michigan St Kansas Villanova Maryland

I would pose the question that if he were to lose in the 1st or 2nd Rd again would you still want him around? (Say no)   Which is more likely to happen?

Agree games against top 5 opponents are never the issue. I think every home game should have that same atmosphere.