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BottomLine

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Everything posted by BottomLine

  1. With a five game winning streak and a top 25 ranking, we can all dream about winning that sixth championship. What will it take? Just some statistics to provide some food for thought. The KenPom ratings rank every team in a lot of categories, including AdjO and AdjD. You can also go back and see ranking for every year since 2002. Just put a chart together for the AdjO and AdjD ratings and the total of the two for every champion since 2002 and here it is: 2018 Villanova 1 + 11 + 12 2017 North Carolina 9 + 11 + 20 2016 Villanova 3 + 5 + 8 2015 Duke 3 + 11 + 14 2014 Connecticut 39 + 10 + 49 2013 Louisville 9 + 1 = 10 2012 Kentucky 2 + 7 = 9 2011 Connecticut 19 + 15 = 34 2010 Duke 1 + 5 = 6 2009 North Carolina 1 + 18 = 19 2008 Kansas 2 + 1 = 3 2007 Florida 1 + 13 = 14 2006 Florida 3 + 7 = 10 2005 North Carolina 2 + 5 + 7 2004 Connecticut 9 + 6 = 15 2003 Syracuse 17 = 14 = 31 2002 Maryland 4 + 7 + 11 Note that 14 of the last 17 national champions had a combined offensive and defensive rating of 20 or less. You must admire Archie's drive to bring IU's defensive number down, while doing the same for IU's offensive numbers. The "magic" 20 point threshold doesn't guarantee a national championship, there are teams below that number that didn't win a championship. However, it is hard to argue with the statistics that say that teams that have both a good offense and defense have a chance that is much better than teams that can not match those numbers. IU's current numbers are 37 + 18 = 55, not encouraging for #6. The only three teams that are currently under the 20 threshold are Duke (2 +5 =7), Virginia (10 + 4 =14) and Kansas (7 + 6 + 13). Michigan is the best from the Big Ten (21 + 3 + 24). Of course the numbers change almost every time a team plays. Some will improve and others will regress and who knows what the numbers will be at the end of the year. Just thought throw out some numbers for people to think about. Numbers that are certainly more meaningful that where we are in the national polls.
  2. BottomLine

    2019 April Evaluation Period

    Hope we can add Hunter to that group.
  3. BottomLine

    What will it take to win #6

    Listened to the same interview and was impressed by what he had to say. I go back to way before the Knight era and IU's swagger didn't start with him, it was there before. That is what made IU so great. Somehow we have lost that and I don't see us getting it back. Being great is more than recruiting 5* and 4* athletes. It is about an attitude that says, "We are Indiana and you aren't going to beat us on our home floor, and if you beat us anywhere else, you are going to know that you have been in a fight." It was obvious that Greg knows all about that.
  4. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    The exception might be the player from a small school without a graduate program that has already graduated.
  5. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    Grad transfers transfer for a reason, usually it is because they were not that successful where they came from and they are looking for the greener grass on the other side of the fence. If they were great, they probably wouldn't be leaving their old school. Sometimes they are right. More often than not they are not.
  6. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    Lots of yada yada yada on here but the reality is that 2018-19 is over and we are looking at 2019-20 now. At this moment our starting lineup is 1) Phinisee, 2) Green, 3) Durham, 4) Smith, and 5) Davis. I don't care where they come from, whether it is an improved player from off the bench, an incoming Freshman, or from someone off the grad transfer list, from this moment on we are looking for players that can BEAT SOMEONE OUT! I don't want to know how good they will be in 3 or 4 years. I want to know how good they will be next year, because if we are locked in to that starting five, I don't see significant improvement, though some improvement is to be expected from individual players from one year to the next. I'm looking for players that make those five look over their shoulders every day and make them bust their butts to stay on top. Any player that comes to IU and doesn't have a chip on their shoulder and looking for a spot to play, is probably a waste. Nothing given and everything earned has to be the way to the future.
  7. BottomLine

    Romeo Langford Declares For NBA Draft

    I stand corrected. He did injure the knee in the summer before his freshman year. Here is a quote from an article about Grunwald Of all of the outstanding high school basketball players I observed as a student and fan and covered as a sportswriter for four daily newspapers over a period of 50 years, two who stand out are Grunwald and Russell Cross. I'll always wonder how good they could have been, if they could have achieved the Hall of Fame stature of George Mikan or Harry Gallatin or Andy Phillip or Isiah Thomas or Dan Issel or Cazzie Russell or Jerry Sloan or Don Nelson or, upon his retirement, Kevin Garnett. They never had a chance. Grunwald, the only four-time All-State selection in Illinois history, was recruited out of East Leyden by Indiana coach Bob Knight. He chose Indiana over North Carolina and Kentucky. But he suffered a severe knee injury during the summer prior to his freshman year and never was able to fulfill his enormous potential. "Sure, I'll always wonder how good I could have been," he once told me. "It was tough not to succeed in basketball after high school. But I was part of a good college program and happy to be part of its success, however small. When you are injured, you feel you can get better. But the gradual realization is that it won't be the same." He was co-captain of Indiana's 1981 NCAA championship team that was led by Isiah Thomas. He was drafted by the Boston Celtics in the fifth round of the NBA draft but never played in the NBA. Instead, he focused on his education, earning a law degree, an MBA and an Honours business degree in marketing. He was a successful corporate attorney for major law firms, including Winston & Strawn in Chicago, before joining the Denver Nuggets.
  8. BottomLine

    Romeo Langford Declares For NBA Draft

    I don't remember that being the case. He was tall and thin and I think they just wore out from all the rapid growth. Back in the 70s and 80s they couldn't do with knees what they can do now. Just remember him playing in high school at East Leyden and he was just unstoppable and him being the potential "star" of the class that ended up winning it all in 1981. He played at IU but he was never healthy enough to stay on the court for long periods of time.
  9. BottomLine

    Romeo Langford Declares For NBA Draft

    Biggest hard luck player at IU had to be Glen Grunwald. Was first team all state in Illinois for all FOUR years of high school and was Mr. Basketball his senior year. Doubt Illinois ever had any better, but by the time he got to IU his freshman year he could hardly walk his knees were so bad. Stuck it out for all four years and played but he was just a shadow of what he had been. Still went on to have a very successful career as a NBA executive with the Nuggets and then was later GM of both the Raptors and the Knicks. Despite being a team captain he only saw limited playing time for IU's 1981 championship team. After basically sitting the bench because of his knees for four years at IU he was still drafted by the Celtics. OH, what might have been.
  10. BottomLine

    What will it take to win #6

    Hate to break the trend in the conversation but wanted to point out that with the Virginia win it is now 15 of the last 18 winners have a combined Pom offensive and defensive number that is 20 or below. To win #6 IU needs to trend toward those numbers.
  11. BottomLine

    What will it take to win #6

    The point is not necessarily how to pick the winner. The point is that this is a useful measuring stick to determine where your program is at any given point. Sometimes we, as Hoosier fans, have a tendency to over evaluate out team and our players. We were all high on the team back in December when we were ranked n the top 25 and we were all dreaming of a return to the NCAA Tournament and a long run. The fact is that December was fools gold and our numbers were not good enough to sustain those hopes and in fact it was apparent that rougher times were ahead. There isn't a magical formula that will guarantee success. There were teams that met the criteria that I suggested that obviously didn't make it to the Final Four. You still need to play the games and anything can and often does happen during the 40 minutes of a single game. However, those teams with good offensive and defensive ratings seems to have a definite advantage in postseason play, which shouldn't be a big duh. My contention is that a mathematical rating such as Pomeroy offense and defense give us a much truer picture than subjective ratings systems such as the coaches or writers polls, and are certainly more valuable then the overall win/loss record. As for the team's ratings changing during the course of the tournament, those changes are minor. Nobody is making huge jumps or drops based upon a few games because we are looking at a population of about 35 games. I'm trying not to split hairs here. If Indiana wants to be considered one of the top programs and a post season threat, I think we know what our numbers need to look like.
  12. BottomLine

    What will it take to win #6

    14 of the last 17 NCAA champions have had a combined Pomeroy offense and defense ranking of 20 or less. This year there were four qualifiers: Virginia (3 +5 = 8), MSU (1 +12 = 13), Gonzaga (1 +12 =13), and Duke (7+6 =13). All four reached the final 8 and Virginia and MSU reached the Final Four. For reference Texas Tech (28 +1 = 29) and Auburn (6+36=42), while non-qualifiers still had pretty good numbers. Indiana finished 81+30=111. Still think this is one of the best ways to evaluate where we are and where we need to go.
  13. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    I don't believe the cause of the suspension was ever announced publicly. There is a student privacy issue. Any connection to drugs was just speculation that took on a life if its own.
  14. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    Has this topic been pulled?
  15. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    Any interest in Derrick Smits the center from Valpo? 7-2 and 240 grad transfer. He was leading scorer and rebounder.
  16. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    Was under the impression that all of the Crean players stayed in Bloomington over the summer, attended summer school, and worked out. As a result most met their graduation requirements in three years.
  17. BottomLine

    2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

    With only 13 scholarships to give, a coach has very little room for mistakes. Get a few too many wrong and you are looking for a new job. It also goes the other way. A player goes to a school thinking he is going to be a star and then ends up at the end of the bench for two years or more. Wish I had seen more of what Moore could do but frankly he was on the path to be the next Priller (who I also would have liked to see more, but what do I know?). Sometimes it is best for all concerned to just say that it isn't working out and move on to a new place where there is a better opportunity. It really isn't anyone's fault. Looking at IU's roster for next year, Franklin and Jackson-Davis are locked in. I can't see Durham, Phinisee, Forrester, Hunter, or Thompson going anywhere. They seem to be valued by the staff and can see a path to the future. A month ago I thought Davis might be a grad transfer or physically unable to perform but a strong finish to the season probably makes his a definite return now. That makes four question marks. Will Langford take the money and run? I don't think he is a lottery pick right now but is probably still in the first round. I can see him (I hope) not declaring and going through the NBA evaluation camp. Have never thought Green was happy at IU and how he was being used. The comments he made about the fans when he was suspended lead me to believe that he has at least considered the grad transfer route. Smith is another that I suspect isn't totally happy. He just doesn't seem to be committed much of the time. If he considers leaving it would be as a sit one and play two. Guess is that he stays at least until he graduates but who knows. Anderson seems to be a lost man right now. Don't know what the staff is telling him but he doesn't look happy. He had his opportunity earlier in the year and just didn't come through enough to permanently crack the playing rotation. Will next year be any different? If not, the writing is probably on the wall and I can see him looking for another situation where he is more appreciated. It isn't always easy to divine what is going through the mind of young men, who all probably have a touch of ego. But, sometimes it isn't so hard either. Whatever happens, IU is still my team and I wish happiness and the best to everyone.
  18. BottomLine

    You be the Committee

    Below are the latest bracket projections from Joe Lunardi broken into groups of four. With each team is their season record, Pomeroy rating, Sagarin Rating, and T-Rank Rating. The T-Rank Rating is probably closest to the breakdown that the NCAA Committee will use. It should make conference tournament watching interesting. Of course, as games are played the numbers will also change. BTW How in the world can Clemson be on the bubble? LAST 4 BYES Florida (17-14) 30-31-25 Seton Hall (18-12) 59-51-64 Arizona State (21-9) 62-53-71 Ohio State (18-13) 45-43-47 LAST 4 IN NC State (21-10) 31-24-36 Alabama (17-14) 60-58-50 Temple (23-8) 69-65-58 Clemson (19-12) 28-29-22 FIRST 4 OUT TCU (19-12) 48-37-42 Indiana (17-14) 42-33-48 Creighton (18-13) 49-42-45 Saint Mary's (20-11) 33-44-39 NEXT 4 OUT Furman (25-7) 55-77-61 Murray State (27-4) 51-55-66 Dayton (21-10) 58-64-57 Butler (16-15) 61-54-63
  19. Knock off the top high schoolers 5 for the NBA and there will just be another top 5 on the list available for college. A bigger concern might be the development league and kids skipping the college experience for that. My feeling is that the college game will be better having kids play that want to go to college.
  20. BottomLine

    You be the Committee

    Starting to look like almost nobody wants to fight their way into the tournament: Florida - Beat Arkansas on Thur Ohio State - Beat Indiana on Thur Alabama - Beat Ole Miss on Thur - TCU - Lost to Kansas St on Thur Indiana - Lost to Ohio State on Thur Creighton - Lost to Xavier on Thur Nc State - Lost to Virginia on Thur Butler - Lost to Providence on Wed Clemson - Lost to NC State on Wed Furman - Lost to UNC Greensboro on Wed Seton Hall v. Georgetown on Thur ASU v.UCLA on Thur Dayton v. Richmond/St Louis winner on Fri Temple v. Wichita State/ECU winner on Friday
  21. BottomLine

    Hoosier Cheering Guide 3/9/19

    NC State faces Virginia. Can't see them pulling that off.
  22. BottomLine

    You be the Committee

    Wednesday's games are through. TCU was a winner and moves on. Butler is back on the shelf after losing to Providence. Thursday is going to be a big day. 14 teams still fighting for the last 6 spots. You can't enjoy the scramble without a schedule. And, of course, there is always the possibility that some outside team will win one of the conference tourneys and ****** one of the spots. Murray State Won OVC tourney and is in field of 68 St Mary's Won WCC tourney and is in field of 68 TCU Kansas State (Thur) NC State Virginia (Thur) Florida Arkansas (Thur) Alabama Ole Miss (Thur) Seton Hall Georgetown (Thur) Indiana Ohio State (Thur) Ohio State Indiana (Thur) Creighton Xavier (Thur) Arizona St Stanford/UCLA winner (Thur) Dayton St Louis/Richmond winner (Fri) Temple Wichita St/ECU (Fri) Clemson DONE - Lost to NC State Furman DONE - Lost to UNC Greensboro Butler Done - Lost to Providence
  23. BottomLine

    You be the Committee

    Getting down to crunch time. Murray State and St Mary's have had their ticket punched for the NCAA Tournament. That probably leaves 14 teams fighting for the last 6 spots. You can't enjoy the scramble without a schedule. And, of course, there is always the possibility that some team will win one of the conference tourneys and ****** one of the spots. Murray State Won OVC tourney and is in field of 68 St Mary's Won WCC tourney and is in field of 68 TCU OK State (Wed) Butler Providence (Wed) NC State Virginia (Thur) Florida Arkansas (Thur) Alabama Ole Miss (Thur) Seton Hall Georgetown (Thur) Indiana Ohio State (Thur) Ohio State Indiana (Thur) Creighton Xavier (Thur) Arizona St Stanford/UCLA winner (Thur) Dayton St Louis/Richmond winner (Fri) Temple Wichita St/ECU (Fri) Clemson DONE - Lost to NC State Furman DONE - Lost to UNC Greensboro
  24. BottomLine

    You be the Committee

    That's about it. If IU is the last one left out, remember this game because I'm not sure St Mary's would have gotten in otherwise. On the other hand, when we win the Big 10 Tourney we may be edging out someone else. Right now I think we are capable of beating anyone in the Big 10. Can we take everyone down on consecutive days? That may be the question. It could be the only way we get in though.
  25. BottomLine

    You be the Committee

    Took me a second to figure that out, and then it hit. Right you are.
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