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BottomLine

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Everything posted by BottomLine

  1. Slept the night through without getting up to pee. +20. BTW a prune cocktail will take care of the constipation thing.
  2. I hate games like this. I'm 72-years-old and I've been a dyed in the wool Hoosier fan since I was about 9. Think of Jimmy Rayl, Walt Bellemy and Archie Dees my heroes growing up. I will NEVER root against Indiana and NEVER miss a game if I can do anything to help it. On the other hand this is a contest and you don't win something like this picking with your heart and not your head. That is why I'm going with the Spartans and not the Hoosiers. With its best game, Indiana can win this. I hope the fans get into the game early and loud because we are going to need that to pull off an upset. And it would be an upset. Michigan State is the best team in the conference. I know the Big Ten is 7-41 on the road in conference. However, Michigan State has only been on the road in conference twice. They are 6-1 but 5 of those wins were at home. On the road they beat Northwestern and were crushed by Purdue. While Archie, at times, can't decide who to play, Michigan State has a solid lineup. Winston, Tillman, Brown and Henry seldom come off the floor. That isn't to say that the bench is a bunch of stiffs. It just says that this is a team that has some chemistry. We are still working on that. As to the numbers, IU comes up short across the board. We are 1-3 against the top 25. MSU is 2-1. Over the last 10 games MSU is 9-1 and we are 6-4. Against common opponents MSU is 3-0 and IU is 1-2. Against teams with similar records MSU is 7-3 and IU is 2-4. On average they outscore us on offense 78.3 to 75.1. They also top us on defense 63.6 to 66.2. We haven't been ranked once this year and Michigan state has been a top 10 dweller all year. Still despite all of that this could be a very close game. Who knows a 50/50 ball here and there, a good night rebounding the ball, Michigan foul trouble, a few fewer IU turnovers, or a few extra 3's fall and everything could turn out in IU's favor. Those are all big IF's. Vegas has this game at 141.5 o/u. MSU is favored by 3 so that makes the implied final score 72-69. I'm thinking that defense might be more important in this game than offense. MSU is averaging 71 in conference the that includes a 47 point stinker in West Lafayette. I see them scoring about 74 here and IU struggling to get to 70. That's it. But I hope it is the other way around. IU 70 MSU 74
  3. Usually there are a few brave souls that post a prediction far in advance of the game. With MSU on the horizon it looks like everyone is taking a little longer for reflection. Which fork in the road do you take this time?
  4. BottomLine

    IU at Nebraska Game Thread 1/18 7 PM BTN

    Brunk is a junior in eligibility and will be back next year.
  5. 17th game? Seems like the season just started. Well here we are in Nebraska playing a team that has a record of not playing well at home. They are only 5-4 at home this year. In short, they are no Rutgers. Rutgers is a team that is on the rise and has a chance to finish near the top of the standings. Nebraska does not. It is regrettable but reasonable to lose to Rutgers on the road. It is not reasonable to lose to Nebraska. They are 7-10 this year. Some rating systems only pick them to win one more game this year (Northwestern). I know IU had trouble scoring against Rutgers but so does everybody at Rutgers. They have given up an average of 57 over their last four games.. We can score on Nebraska as we proved by scoring 96 in overtime in Bloomington. Of course we also gave up 90. But overall we have a better offense and defense than Nebraska. We are averaging 74.6/game and they are giving up an average of 74.4. We are holding our opponents to 65.8 and Nebraska is scoring at a 72.5 clip. We have four common opponents. We are plus 21 and 3-1 against those opponents. Nebraska is -17 and 1-3. Advantage IU. They drove us crazy in Bloomington by driving at every opportunity. Our defense has improved since then and we have Phinisee, a good on ball defender, back as a regular. Jervay Green is questionable for this game. To bad. so sad. I don't think they will have as easy a time getting to the basket in this one. The big guys in Vegas have us winning by 74-68.5. I hope it isn't that close. I figure that we have to win a game on the road sooner or later and since we don't play Northwestern again this is the easiest one left. Over their last four game Nebraska has given up an average of 73 points/game. I think we will do slightly better. They have scored and average of 66. We can beat that. The crystal ball says. IU 75 Nebraska 64
  6. Okay, I take whatever the final score is and pick Indiana to win. And, that is what I pick. LOL
  7. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    Another fork in the road coming with Nebraska. Now, where did I place that darn road map?
  8. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    Don't know how many times I've thought about changing at the last minute and then didn't. You open up yourself to second guessing. Plenty of games left. Hang in there and good luck.
  9. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    Not even going to try to tally the unofficial early results for this one. Have a feeling that a number of people will be subbing back in scores that were dropped. Only 8 of the top 20 picked Rutgers. Of the top 6 fwgreenway, BottomLine, and JayBobHoosier picked Rutgers and will probably be the new top 3. WayneFleekHoosier picked Rutgers and then switched. On to Nebraska!
  10. BottomLine

    Prediction League (Game 17 - @ Rutgers 1/15/20)

    Boy oh boy, would I like to win this game at Rutgers on Wednesday night! I'm going to be rooting like crazy for the Hoosiers, but I'm not going to pick them. The Hoosiers have a really steep up hill climb to win this one. They CAN win it. I'm just saying that it will take a mighty effort. To start with the Big Ten record this year for road teams is 5-32. Everybody is competing like a junkyard dog at home and that included Rutgers, who is 11-0 at home. Indiana, on the other had, has two road games in the conference so far and both were blowouts. Not an encouraging sign. We did win two neutral court games by the skin of our chinny chin chin. We have two opponents in common. Rutgers beat Wisconsin and Nebraska by 7 and 17. We were blown out by Wisconsin and had to go into overtime to defeat Nebraska at home. Indiana has averaged 60.5 points in our away games and has given up an average of 68.2. Rutgers offense/defense at home is 73.2/55.7. Vegas, which is risking real money on the results, has Rutgers favored by 3.5 and an o/u of 130. That makes the implied final score 67-64 in favor of Rutgers. Throw into the mix the question of whether Phinisee is ready to play major minutes in two games in a row and whether Green will turn mental case again after playing well in the second half against Ohio State. I'm just having trouble finding anything positive that would point to a Hoosier victory. For those who are discouraged, go to sevenovertimes.com and check out Indiana's future schedule. He has IU winning 14 of it's last 15 games in the conference including Rutgers. The only predicted loss is Ohio State in Columbus. Hope he is right. Nitty Gritty Time! IU 65 Rutgers 69
  11. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    We have all been there. Plenty of games to go. Good luck.
  12. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    Highly unofficial results. Only 4 of top 15 selected Hoosiers. New standings fwgreenway (1514), WayneFleetHoosier (1512), BottomLine (1507). The first major fork in the road and all three took the right one. Many more forks to come. MoyeNeeded picked the winner right and then changed to OSU.
  13. Read to the bottom. Got IU winning 70-69. We are in this one together.
  14. I don't know if anyone notices my ramblings here before I make my predictions, but I enjoy the process of thinking out loud. Sometimes I'm right on and sometimes I make a fool of myself. Luckily this site is locked before the game starts and nobody can come back afterwards and laugh. Anyway here goes my thinking process before this one. I told my wife a month ago that I thought IU's first loss would be Ohio State. Then along came Wisconsin, Arkansas and Maryland. We are still at the stage of the season when we can still remember each loss. This has been a strange season and this Indiana team is psycho! Ever notice how every game there are several people who pick the opposition's final score and very few pick the IU score? That is because IU is not consistent. A lot has happened in the last month and I can't believe that I am about to pick the Hoosiers over the Buckeyes. At this point Ohio State, which at one point looked like a contender to take everything, is not a very good team. They have two key players out. Though Young might be a game time decision. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games. The two wins were over a bottom dweller and Kentucky. The ability is certainly there but OSU is not producing on the court right now, and they aren't a very good road team. Throw out the bottom dweller and over it's last 5 games OSU has averaged only 62.6 points/game. Their defense has given up 68.8. Throw out the Nebraska game with it's freakishly high OT score and Indiana's numbers are 61.6 and 64.4. In other words, looking at what we are doing now, OSU is one point better on offense and we are four points better on defense. OSU shoots the 3 better than IU (who doesn't?) but they turn the ball over more and they like to foul. The Vegas line on this game has Ohio State only a 1.5 point favorite and the o/u for the game at 134. That would make the implied final score 68-66 Ohio State. OSU is 4-4 against competition similar to IU. IU is 1-2 against competition similar to Ohio State. As for IU, who or what is going to turn up for the game? The locker room is in turmoil. The coach has suddenly become the sheriff. The revolving door substitution policy is set to be junked and the list of players used is expected to shrink. Our second best scorer is in Archie's doghouse, and who knows what will happen when he sees the floor, if he sees the floor. And, who knows, maybe THE GENERAL might be in attendance. What the heck, I'm going with the Hoosiers based on a gut feeling. I figure if we can score 70 we can win this game. But will need to hogtie OSU's big center to ensure the victory. I figure I'm either right or we get blown out by a bunch. Should be interesting. Go Hoosiers! IU 70 OSU 69
  15. After today's sad showing against Maryland the mob is ready to hang Archie Miller in effigy or perhaps in reality. For those that thought we were going to get the second coming of Robert Montgomery Knight, a disciplinarian coach that put defense first, you were wrong. That recipe for success was gone long before The General was booted out of Bloomington. We all remember the glory days of the late 70's and 80's when Indiana was a force to be dealt with every year. Some of us remember the days of Branch MacCracken, also a pretty good coach with two national titles. With MacCracken it was the "Hurryin' Hoosiers" and a lot of the alumni didn't take kindly when a "mid Major" coach was brought in from Army to sit on the ball and teach defense. The formula worked fine for awhile. Knight would go to a 4-corner offense with eight minutes to go and a four point lead and the other team would have to foul to get the ball back. Knight teams would have the discipline to make 20 passed before the prefect shot came up with the ball in the hands of the right man. Knight's teams would run their motion offense and pick and screen until the defense collapsed from exhaustion. But times change and Knight's teams were never the same after the introduction of the shot clock and his famous help side man-to-man defense was never as good after the introduction of the 3-point shot. By the time Knight left town a lot of basketball had passed him by. His basketball philosophy wasn't working as well and his personality was driving away a lot of top recruits. I mention all of this because the cult of Bobby is starting to rear its head again, because Archie Miller isn't matching up with expectations. How dare he not be Bobby Knight! Be careful what you wish for. Knight's last national title was in 1987 and IU made the Final Four just one more time in has last 13 years at IU. In his last 9 years IU never made the Final Four once. Only two of his last six teams were ranked in the top 25 in the final poll of the regular season. Obviously the glory days for IU basketball had ended long before Coach finally moved on. Or should I say that basketball moved on and left Knight behind. Still this was the formula that many IU faithful wanted to return to three years ago when Archie Miller was hired. So far it hasn't worked. Now a lot of fans are starting to question if it ever will. So let the debate continue. I'm guessing that with a new AD coming in, Archie Miller will probably have one more year to show what he can do before the axe falls, unless there is another complete collapse this year like last. And, that my friends, is certainly within the bounds of possibility. For the sake of comparison, here are the win percentages of out last five coaches: Sampson .708 (Includes the 3-4 under Dakich) Knight .647 (Last 6 years only) Crean .628 (Pitched the first two years because of the complete rebuild after Sampson) Davis .593 (6 years) Miller .574 (2+ years)
  16. BottomLine

    Do we have any good guards?

    Al's best shooting was early in the season when Franklin was starting and handling the ball up top. Al is much better on catch and shoot than shooting off the dribble, which he does when he is playing point.
  17. Northwestern is a bad team. The question is whether IU is a worse team right now. Don't believe me? IU was blown out by Wisconsin and Maryland on the road and needed overtime to beat Nebraska at home. That is as close to 0-3 as you can get without being 0-3. Over the last 5 games IU has averaged 67.6 points/game and that number is skewed by the big number in the overtime with Nebraska. Over their last 5 NW has averaged 71.2. We have given up 70.0 and NW has given up 71.6. NW lost to Michigan State by 5. How would we do against Michigan State right now? I think this one will be a lot closer that most people think and a loss by IU wouldn't totally surprise me. Right now our offense is a total mess and if we throw in one of those long dry spells again we could be vulnerable. I don't expect NW to roll over and play dead. We are one of the only games on their remaining schedule where NW has a chance to win. Yes, we are that bad. On the other hand IU has a 6-0 record against teams with a similar rank to NW and NW is 0-2 in games that are similar to IU. NW doesn't like to shoot the 3. They only took one in the first half against Minny. and then were 5-12 in the second half. NW isn't a strong rebounding team, especially on offense. Add to all that is the face that NW is shorthanded right now. How could we lose to these guys? Right now IU is having trouble scoring and NW plays hard on both ends of the floor, doesn't foul much and takes care of the ball. However, I just can't bring myself to pick against the Hoosiers. I hope my fears are unfounded. I'm looking at an over/under of 139 and the Hoosiers win 70-69.
  18. BottomLine

    Do we have any good guards?

    On the contrary I don't think our guards are that bad. Our offense is bad and our player selection is bad. The problem isn't that we have no guards. The problem is that we don't has a 3. When you play them together Brunk and Jackson-Davis clog up the middle and take away any chance to drive by our guards. The odd man out here is Smith. I like many of the things that he does but he isn't a shooter or a good ball handler but he is our 3 by default. Brunk and Jackson-Davis aren't going to go outside and shoot the ball. Smith can't shoot consistently from the outside. He doesn't drive well and there isn't any room for him inside. In short he is a duck out of water. The natural person to play the position should have been Jerome Hunter but he hasn't gotten his act back together. Anderson is also more of a 3 than anything. He certainly isn't a guard. Do you think that you would trust him to hang outside and shoot the 3 when the ball is kicked back outside? Me neither. With the current squad Durham is the guy that should be playing the 3. He is much much better shooting the spot up 3 than shooting off the dribble. However, with Phinisee still doing who knows what, Al has been forced to play the point, when Green will allow him to have the ball. That gives us another player playing out of position in Durham, and if you put the ball into Green's hands at the point then you have three players playing out of position. No wonder this offense is a mess. Archie keeps putting his players in positions where they can fail. When the defense clogs up the middle and keeps the ball out of the hands of the big guys and we don't have a wing that can shoot or drive, what option does that give our guards? Dribble around and chuck up a 3, right? Or, perhaps just turn the ball over so the other team can have a run-out. Does anyone think that the coaching staffs at the other Big 10 schools can't see this? Personally I like the idea of two bigs, but we don't have the personnel to play the other three positions. If I were sitting in Archie's spot on the bench I'd move Smith back inside and rotate Brunk, Jackson-Davis, Smith and Thompson with Jackson-Davis getting the biggest chunk of minutes. I'd play Durham and Franklin at the 3 and give some time to Anderson and Hunter and hope that one of the other develops. Our guards might look a lot better if they had someone to pass the ball to.
  19. BottomLine

    Do we have any good guards?

    Sometimes things are just too obvious.
  20. Interesting observation from the Minnesota/Northwestern game. NW had exactly one 3-point attempt in the first half and missed. Then after falling behind by 21 they opened up from outside in the second half and almost came all the way back. They couldn't miss. What do we get? True stats. I thought I'd throw them out there to confuse everyone even more. LOL
  21. BottomLine

    Do we have any good guards?

    Best 3-point shooter is anchored to the bench. Not saying he is an answer but there are times that you need to bring someone in off the bench for a couple of minutes that can shoot the 3 and open up the offense a bit. Cooper Bybee JUCO numbers have him 54-129 from 3 for a 41.9%. He shot 93.8% from the free throw line and has a 1.8 assist to turnover ratio. Miller brought in a shooting specialist and is afraid to use him.
  22. BottomLine

    Be careful what you wish for

    Last time I looked Bennett and Ryan were not available. Do you have any way of prediction who the next Bennett or Ryan might be? IU got lucky once and picked a young coach out of obscurity and it worked out. Beginners luck I think and the draw that a destination program has. "Because its Indiana!" As much as I hate to admit it, Crean was better than Miller, but he wasn't the answer either. If we are going to change coaches down the road, we should be looking now and not after panic mode hits after we drop the axe. We disagree on the fed ex packages. Being clean is a backbone of the program.
  23. BottomLine

    Be careful what you wish for

    So, I think it is a foregone conclusion that you think he should be gone. I understand your point and I'm leaning that way myself. The question then becomes where do we go from here. To try to repeat the success of the past is an admirable goal. To try and repeat the methods of the past may be a mistake. IU hired Miller because they thought he was a Knight clone and success would automatically follow. He isn't and it didn't.
  24. BottomLine

    Be careful what you wish for

    He was a cheater and the atmosphere stank. BUT he could coach!
  25. BottomLine

    Prediction League (Game 14 - @ Maryland 1/4/20)

    This game breaks my heart. Do I pick with my heart or my head? My heart says Hoosiers. My head says Terps. In Indiana's last 6 games against major teams we have an offensive average of 70.5. Out defensive average against the same teams is 70.5. The days of leading the country in offensive average is long gone and adjustments must be made. In Maryland's last 5 games against major competition their numbers are 66.4 and 60.0. Neither team is scoring much right now but Maryland probably has an edge in defense. That and the home court could be the difference makers. I seem to remember IU playing Maryland tough in the past. I also know that IU has not been a good road team. Don't get me wrong IU can win this game but that depends on so many big ifs. If IU can get the ball inside and draw fouls, if IU can drive and kick to open shooters, if IU can dominate on the boards, if IU can play defense (Maryland isn't a crazy throw em up 3-point team)., if IU can force turnovers, if IU can handle the ball without turning it over, we have a chance to win this game. That is a lot of ifs. The difference between winning and losing is a 50 point turnaround. My heart says pick the Hoosiers. My head says don't be a chump. I'll still root like crazy for the Hoosiers but I'm picking Maryland. Maryland 74 Indiana 68
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