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BlueDevil

College Bball Thread

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2 minutes ago, lillurk said:

Interesting case. Their non-conference gave them nothing notable, and their remaining conference schedule is tough. Not hard to see them going 10-10 in conference like this or similar, which the Torvik teamcast model projects would put them in Dayton, pending BTT performance.

To me it looks a little weak for even that, but I’m not bracketologist.

They need to hope Liberty stays a Quad 1 win which will be tough cuz Liberty's SOS is gonna tank the rest of the year and that Pitt doesn't fall to quad 3 cuz NW got absolutely blasted at home by them in the B1G/ACC game.

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3 hours ago, lillurk said:

Interesting case. Their non-conference gave them nothing notable, and their remaining conference schedule is tough. Not hard to see them going 10-10 in conference like this or similar, which the Torvik teamcast model projects would put them in Dayton, pending BTT performance.

To me it looks a little weak for even that, but I’m not bracketologist.

FWIW (which isn't much), my Big Ten WAR ratings through today for the Big Ten have the following values:

  • 1.  Purdue +7.16
  • 2.  Michigan State +2.21
  • 3.  Indiana +2.15
  • 4.  Illinois +2.11
  • 5.  Northwestern +1.71
  • 6.  Rutgers +1.31
  • 7.  Maryland +1.25
  • 8.  Wisconsin +0.54
  • 9.  Penn State +0.46
  • 10. Iowa +0.28
  • 11. Ohio State -1.02
  • 12. Michigan -1.32
  • 13. Nebraska -1.85
  • 14. Minnesota -4.71

Also, FWIW, last season any team that finished the year at +1 or higher made the tournament as an at large.  At the two-thirds point of the year, that value would be at +0.67.  Northwestern is positioned very well, IMO.  Their last eleven games should all be quad one and quad two and even winning just four of them would give them a 10-10 conference record and double digit quad 1 and 2 wins most likely.  That would probably put them squarely on the bubble.  Going 5-6 IMO puts them in.

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Had to work today, so wasn't able to pay much attention to sports until the IU game.

So a while ago, I go through the channels and come upon the Arizona-Washington game. That's on the West Coast, I think, so it's gotta be live -- I'll give it a look-see. I watch for about a half-hour, and a minute ago, hear: "Coming up next: Ohio State at Indiana." 

To quote Roberto De Vinzenzo: "What a stupid I am." 

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10 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW (which isn't much), my Big Ten WAR ratings through today for the Big Ten have the following values:

  • 1.  Purdue +7.16
  • 2.  Michigan State +2.21
  • 3.  Indiana +2.15
  • 4.  Illinois +2.11
  • 5.  Northwestern +1.71
  • 6.  Rutgers +1.31
  • 7.  Maryland +1.25
  • 8.  Wisconsin +0.54
  • 9.  Penn State +0.46
  • 10. Iowa +0.28
  • 11. Ohio State -1.02
  • 12. Michigan -1.32
  • 13. Nebraska -1.85
  • 14. Minnesota -4.71

Also, FWIW, last season any team that finished the year at +1 or higher made the tournament as an at large.  At the two-thirds point of the year, that value would be at +0.67.  Northwestern is positioned very well, IMO.  Their last eleven games should all be quad one and quad two and even winning just four of them would give them a 10-10 conference record and double digit quad 1 and 2 wins most likely.  That would probably put them squarely on the bubble.  Going 5-6 IMO puts them in.

This conclusion seems correct to me, they need 5 or more wins and they’re in, though if they finish 10-10 they’re right near the cut line, and might need some help and/or some BTT work.

For what it’s worth, I think they’re legitimately a good team, resume aside. IU should’ve beat them at SSAH, of course, but they don’t suck.

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16 minutes ago, lillurk said:

This conclusion seems correct to me, they need 5 or more wins and they’re in, though if they finish 10-10 they’re right near the cut line, and might need some help and/or some BTT work.

For what it’s worth, I think they’re legitimately a good team, resume aside. IU should’ve beat them at SSAH, of course, but they don’t suck.

If IU goes 10-10 in the B1G with the road win at Xavier they would be a lock to make it.   Their Sos would be top 25 and their non con sos would be under 100.   IU is in great shape and with how things are shaping out going 9-11 in the B1G would probably get them in and avoid Dayton.  That’s the floor and no one wants that  but in my opinion they wouldn’t be sweating on selection Sunday.     IU has 0 Q3 or 4 losses.  Teams on the cut line are going to have that and most won’t have 2 Q1a road wins in their pocket.   Hopefully they don’t test this and are no where near the cut line 

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8 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

If IU goes 10-10 in the B1G with the road win at Xavier they would be a lock to make it.   Their Sos would be top 25 and their non con sos would be under 100.   IU is in great shape and with how things are shaping out going 9-11 in the B1G would probably get them in and avoid Dayton.  That’s the floor and no one wants that  but in my opinion they wouldn’t be sweating on selection Sunday.     IU has 0 Q3 or 4 losses.  Teams on the cut line are going to have that and most won’t have 2 Q1a road wins in their pocket.   Hopefully they don’t test this and are no where near the cut line 

This is correct, but @RaceToTheTop and I were talking about Northwestern.

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5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

USPS is definitely the board expert on that.  I'm happy my WAR basically agrees, although I have them just one spot above as the last team with a bye.

Their resume is basically the road win at Tennessee right now.   1-6 in Q1 games and a brutal Q4 loss at home to South Carolina.   

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