2023 SF/PF Mackenzie Mgbako to INDI-F’N-ANA

[Demo 19,828]

This seems correct to me, though it’s not hard to see Jackson playing ahead of Morris. Regardless, Mgbako’s fit isn’t that clear, though I wouldn’t pretend to know his priorities.

[str8baller 5,209]

What’s the likelihood this kid is 1-and-done? 
 

What’s the % chance he’s an impact player next year? For discussion purposes I’d say JHS was an impact freshman but Reneau wasn’t. I love Reneau, but we’re talking about a 25mpg, hold down one of the starting spots on almost any team night-to-night in the B1G type frosh we would need to improve us for next year.

[pumpfake 3,935]

10 minutes ago, str8baller said:

What’s the likelihood this kid is 1-and-done? 
 

What’s the % chance he’s an impact player next year? For discussion purposes I’d say JHS was an impact freshman but Reneau wasn’t. I love Reneau, but we’re talking about a 25mpg, hold down one of the starting spots on almost any team night-to-night in the B1G type frosh we would need to improve us for next year.

Purely from a betting perspective, Dingle would be more likely to produce than any freshman (IMO).

[lillurk 3,738]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Have to say that from the way that MM and family have been handling the process, a hard sell might not be the best way to go.  We'll see.

Also note that if the family is mum on all this, even off the record, then every trickle of info is coming from the team side. So of course KU wants the message to be that the visit was good and they’re pushing for a shutdown.

[lillurk 3,738]

15 minutes ago, str8baller said:

What’s the likelihood this kid is 1-and-done? 
 

What’s the % chance he’s an impact player next year? For discussion purposes I’d say JHS was an impact freshman but Reneau wasn’t. I love Reneau, but we’re talking about a 25mpg, hold down one of the starting spots on almost any team night-to-night in the B1G type frosh we would need to improve us for next year.

Verrrrrry high likelihood he’s 1-and-done. Like ~75% or so I’d guess. Players rated top 8-12 in their class, like Mgbako, almost always stay only one year. Kel’el Ware is the exception, not the rule.

[str8baller 5,209]

3 minutes ago, pumpfake said:

Purely from a betting perspective, Dingle would be more likely to produce than any freshman (IMO).

Not having really watched Dingle last year, my instinct is the same. A 21-22 year old who has proven himself in a smaller conf is more ready to step into that role. There certainly are a handful of freshman exceptions to that each year, which is why I ask. 

[Hoosierfan1901 6,227]

Looks like St. John’s is eyeing UK’s Lance Ware right now, could be something could be nothing, just a notable thing 

[RaceToTheTop 25,583]

5 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Not having really watched Dingle last year, my instinct is the same. A 21-22 year old who has proven himself in a smaller conf is more ready to step into that role. There certainly are a handful of freshman exceptions to that each year, which is why I ask. 

FWIW....and it's just a mathematical projection, nothing more, nothing less:  Torvik projects is Dingle was added he would get 32 minutes/game at IU, have an offensive efficiency of 112, and a usage rate of 25.  If Mgbako was added instead, Torvik rojects he would get 30.8 minutes/game, have an offensive efficiency of 111, and a usage rate of 21.  If either were added, Torvik's ratings move IU from 35th overall to 24th overall.  So not a whole lot of difference.

[Hardwood83 4,766]

10 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW....and it's just a mathematical projection, nothing more, nothing less:  Torvik projects is Dingle was added he would get 32 minutes/game at IU, have an offensive efficiency of 112, and a usage rate of 25.  If Mgbako was added instead, Torvik rojects he would get 30.8 minutes/game, have an offensive efficiency of 111, and a usage rate of 21.  If either were added, Torvik's ratings move IU from 35th overall to 24th overall.  So not a whole lot of difference.

What if IU were to add both? Hey, a guy can dream!

[RaceToTheTop 25,583]

21 minutes ago, Hardwood83 said:

What if IU were to add both? Hey, a guy can dream!

Adding both, Torvik would put IU 19th.

[IUFAN1976 3,018]

2 hours ago, lillurk said:

Verrrrrry high likelihood he’s 1-and-done. Like ~75% or so I’d guess. Players rated top 8-12 in their class, like Mgbako, almost always stay only one year. Kel’el Ware is the exception, not the rule.

Only because he wasn’t utilized right

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,670]

2 hours ago, lillurk said:

Verrrrrry high likelihood he’s 1-and-done. Like ~75% or so I’d guess. Players rated top 8-12 in their class, like Mgbako, almost always stay only one year. Kel’el Ware is the exception, not the rule.

That's something worth looking at ever since the 1 and done rule started... What have the top 15 recruits done after 1 season of college...

[RaceToTheTop 25,583]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

That's something worth looking at ever since the 1 and done rule started... What have the top 15 recruits done after 1 season of college...

At the minimum, most of them made a nice chunk of change on their first NBA contract.  And there really isn't a guarantee that they would have done any better if they had stayed longer.  Sometimes their flaws get exposed.

 

[dwtaylor1055 1,524]

get him here and we are all on equal ground still imo.  

[RaceToTheTop 25,583]

A couple of notes on Kansas:

With the addition of Hunter Dickinson, Torvik rates them as the #1 team for next year.  I suspect whether or not they add MM, they will be the preseason #1 team.

A couple of schools of thought:

1.  It's really attractive to sign there and potentially win a title.

2.  It's not real attractive to sign there as titles are a crap shoot in a one and done tournament and the number of offensive options they have available limits touches.

Re:  the second school of thought -- Torvik now projects that Nick Timberlake will average about 8 points per game next year 27 minutes per game.  Obviously this is nothing more than a meant to fun stat projection, but if it shows what adding Hunter Dickinson to an already talented group does -- touches are going to be limited.

Whether 1 or 2 is more attractive (if everything else is equal) is a personal preference.

 

[dwtaylor1055 1,524]

6 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

A couple of notes on Kansas:

With the addition of Hunter Dickinson, Torvik rates them as the #1 team for next year.  I suspect whether or not they add MM, they will be the preseason #1 team.

A couple of schools of thought:

1.  It's really attractive to sign there and potentially win a title.

2.  It's not real attractive to sign there as titles are a crap shoot in a one and done tournament and the number of offensive options they have available limits touches.

Re:  the second school of thought -- Torvik now projects that Nick Timberlake will average about 8 points per game next year 27 minutes per game.  Obviously this is nothing more than a meant to fun stat projection, but if it shows what adding Hunter Dickinson to an already talented group does -- touches are going to be limited.

Whether 1 or 2 is more attractive (if everything else is equal) is a personal preference.

 

with MM it'll boil down to if he wants to win a title or playing time(quicker path to NBA).  If he chooses Kansas he likely gets limited touches AND returns to a school for a 2nd year.  If he chooses IU or UL or St Johns, he'll get as much playing time as he wants.  If he chooses IU he also gets the benefit of seeing CMW and company grooming him with a good chance at being a one and done potentially.  

[normandale97 203]

13 minutes ago, dwtaylor1055 said:

with MM it'll boil down to if he wants to win a title or playing time(quicker path to NBA).  If he chooses Kansas he likely gets limited touches AND returns to a school for a 2nd year.  If he chooses IU or UL or St Johns, he'll get as much playing time as he wants.  If he chooses IU he also gets the benefit of seeing CMW and company grooming him with a good chance at being a one and done potentially.  

Bill Self has produced quite a few one and done players. JHS was always one and done no matter where he went to college. 

[Artie86 1,902]

Can we just get this guy on campus today, please......???? I need a good birthday present! lol

[rcbowla 7,091]

Bill Self has produced quite a few one and done players. JHS was always one and done no matter where he went to college. 

Same can be said about the vast majority of one and done's at KU as well I would assume. Generally if a kid is that talented they were that talented to begin with. College coaches do help them but odds are any college coach can get a one and done talent to be just that.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[dwtaylor1055 1,524]

34 minutes ago, normandale97 said:

Bill Self has produced quite a few one and done players. JHS was always one and done no matter where he went to college. 

if MM is coming off of the bench for Kansas or even starting with limited touches no way he goes straight to the NBA as a one and done and expects to be a top 15 pick