I'll Be The Optimist For Once

[Demo 17,277]

12 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Here's my point:

At Purdue (or anywhere else, but in this case, Purdue) the amount that a guard improves from the first year they are the starter to the end of their college career can be negligible. 

So let's compare some Purdue guards from the first year they started to their last year.

For each of these,

• top line is last year as starter and 
• bottom line is first year as starter :

PJ Thompson
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
37    27.9    46.0    44.1    84.4    1.8    1.8    0.1    1.2    1.9    0.9    7.5
35    22.6    43.8    41.5    82.8    2.1    2.7    0.0    0.7    1.6    0.7    5.7

Ronnie Johnson
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
32    16.4    43.3    37.9    71.7    1.8    2.3    0.0    0.7    1.0    1.2    7.8
34    31.2    38.5    16.7    59.6    3.4    4.1    0.1    1.0    2.3    2.6    10.3

Ethan Morton
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35    25.2    32.0    27.7    64.9    2.9    2.4    0.5    0.8    1.5    0.9    3.8
37    14.8    47.7    44.1    68.4    1.4    1.4    0.2    0.6    0.8    0.5    2.4

Eric Hunter

GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
37    25.8    46.2    43.6    68.5    2.1    2.0    0.0    0.6    1.5    1.2    6.2
31    31.5    41.5    35.5    76.1    3.3    2.6    0.1    1.0    2.5    2.0    10.6

Brandon Newman
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35    17.7    36.2    31.0    74.5    3.1    1.1    0.3    0.5    1.5    1.0    6.0
28    23.6    39.8    37.9    93.8    3.5    1.3    0.4    0.8    1.9    1.6    8.0

Carsen Edwards

MIN    FGM-FGA    FG%    3PM-3PA    3P%    FTM-FTA    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35.4    7.7-19.5    .394    3.8-10.6    .355    5.1-6.1    .837    3.6    2.9    0.3    1.3    2.0    3.1    24.3
23.3    3.7-9.6    .382    1.4-4.1    .340    1.6-2.1    .743    2.6    1.8    0.1    1.0    1.9    1.8    10.3

Ivey and Edwards got statistically better from first year as a starter to last year as a starter. Edwards, Morton, Hunter, Johnson, PJ Thompson, Isaiah Thompson, and Newman did not get statistically better after they became a starter; in fact, some of them got significantly worse in years after their first year as a starter. Many of them got better compared to when they were 10 minute per game players, but once they got the full time job they were static or worse as years passed.

Ample evidence that once guards get a full chance at Purdue, they don't necessarily develop. Loyer may stay as a below average defender and shooter, and Smith may remain a good shooter that turns it over a bunch.

 

Slow day at the office? 

[Stuhoo 75,397]

Just now, Demo said:

Slow day at the office? 

Lol. Late lunch break!

[go iu bb 4,768]

40 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Here's my point:

At Purdue (or anywhere else, but in this case, Purdue) the amount that a guard improves from the first year they are the starter to the end of their college career can be negligible. 

So let's compare some Purdue guards from the first year they started to their last year.

For each of these,

• top line is last year as starter and 
• bottom line is first year as starter :

PJ Thompson
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
37    27.9    46.0    44.1    84.4    1.8    1.8    0.1    1.2    1.9    0.9    7.5
35    22.6    43.8    41.5    82.8    2.1    2.7    0.0    0.7    1.6    0.7    5.7

Ronnie Johnson
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
32    16.4    43.3    37.9    71.7    1.8    2.3    0.0    0.7    1.0    1.2    7.8
34    31.2    38.5    16.7    59.6    3.4    4.1    0.1    1.0    2.3    2.6    10.3

Ethan Morton
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35    25.2    32.0    27.7    64.9    2.9    2.4    0.5    0.8    1.5    0.9    3.8
37    14.8    47.7    44.1    68.4    1.4    1.4    0.2    0.6    0.8    0.5    2.4

Eric Hunter

GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
37    25.8    46.2    43.6    68.5    2.1    2.0    0.0    0.6    1.5    1.2    6.2
31    31.5    41.5    35.5    76.1    3.3    2.6    0.1    1.0    2.5    2.0    10.6

Brandon Newman
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35    17.7    36.2    31.0    74.5    3.1    1.1    0.3    0.5    1.5    1.0    6.0
28    23.6    39.8    37.9    93.8    3.5    1.3    0.4    0.8    1.9    1.6    8.0

Carsen Edwards

MIN    FGM-FGA    FG%    3PM-3PA    3P%    FTM-FTA    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35.4    7.7-19.5    .394    3.8-10.6    .355    5.1-6.1    .837    3.6    2.9    0.3    1.3    2.0    3.1    24.3
23.3    3.7-9.6    .382    1.4-4.1    .340    1.6-2.1    .743    2.6    1.8    0.1    1.0    1.9    1.8    10.3

Ivey and Edwards got statistically better from first year as a starter to last year as a starter. Edwards, Morton, Hunter, Johnson, PJ Thompson, Isaiah Thompson, and Newman did not get statistically better after they became a starter; in fact, some of them got significantly worse in years after their first year as a starter. Many of them got better compared to when they were 10 minute per game players, but once they got the full time job they were static or worse as years passed.

Ample evidence that once guards get a full chance at Purdue, they don't necessarily develop. Loyer may stay as a below average defender and shooter, and Smith may remain a good shooter that turns it over a bunch.

 

This reminds me of how glad I am that Ethan Morton chose Purdue over IU.

 

[lillurk 3,660]

Torvik’s too-early 2023 projections are up. IU slots in at #42…33rd if you add Xavier and make no other changes using the rostercast tool. Of course lots will change for the Hoosiers and other teams to alter that.

That basically projects IU to be about as good overall next year as this year.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Who said they won’t be a good backcourt? I just said they are going to win a ton of games for Purdue however if Purdue wants to take the next step and actually go far in March some feel that they might need to recruit a more athletic backcourt.   Do you feel Purdue can win it all with those 2 as your main 2 guards?    Winning B1G titles is one thing but playing against SEC type of guards and wings is another.  Heck maybe they will be just fine going against that in later tourneys but first they got to figure out how to get past NEC, MEAC and Conference USA type of athletes first.    

Win it all? Probably not. Reach the 2nd weekend? Absolutely. Loyer could be Purdue's right handed Luke Kennard. Painter is a good coach. Without Edey, obviously the style they played will change. So they'll be fine. They have less questions than we do going into next season... But I'm still optimistic about what we have and what we could get. But most of my optimism is set in a good 2024-2025 season and not a good 2023-2024 season.

[RaceToTheTop 23,436]

1 hour ago, lillurk said:

Torvik’s too-early 2023 projections are up. IU slots in at #42…33rd if you add Xavier and make no other changes using the rostercast tool. Of course lots will change for the Hoosiers and other teams to alter that.

That basically projects IU to be about as good overall next year as this year.

I do love that tool on Torvik.  However, it also makes a lot of assumptions...i.e., on North Carolina Bacot was not projected to be on the roster.  Purdue assumes Edey isn't coming back. I think the tool will be more valuable once players become more solidified on teams.

[Demo 17,277]

4 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Who said they won’t be a good backcourt? I just said they are going to win a ton of games for Purdue however if Purdue wants to take the next step and actually go far in March some feel that they might need to recruit a more athletic backcourt.   Do you feel Purdue can win it all with those 2 as your main 2 guards?    Winning B1G titles is one thing but playing against SEC type of guards and wings is another.  Heck maybe they will be just fine going against that in later tourneys but first they got to figure out how to get past NEC, MEAC and Conference USA type of athletes first.    

I think they’re all useful pieces but it’s not a coincidence that the 1st portal name they’re attached to is Dayvion McKnight. They have to find someone who can get looks and none of those kids will ever be that. 

[Uspshoosier 44,145]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Win it all? Probably not. Reach the 2nd weekend? Absolutely. Loyer could be Purdue's right handed Luke Kennard. Painter is a good coach. Without Edey, obviously the style they played will change. So they'll be fine. They have less questions than we do going into next season... But I'm still optimistic about what we have and what we could get. But most of my optimism is set in a good 2024-2025 season and not a good 2023-2024 season.

I’m sure Purdue fans are thrilled they got some guards that can maybe get them to the second weekend.  Lol.   In all seriousness I absolutely think Painter is a fantastic coach that wants to do it his way.    Right now his way isn’t working.   It doesn’t work until it does.    Purdue and and Painter are probably viewed as the best program and coach that has never won it all.   Bennett’s way didn’t work until it did and you could argue it still isn’t working even though he won one.   I see Painter sticking to his way and not switching it up.   In my opinion that’s going to provide a ton of B1G success but when it comes to see runs in the tourney I feel there won’t be many.     I won’t even try to project anything about next year for any team until teams actually know who will be playing 

[rayl456 386]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Win it all? Probably not. Reach the 2nd weekend? Absolutely. Loyer could be Purdue's right handed Luke Kennard. Painter is a good coach. Without Edey, obviously the style they played will change. So they'll be fine. They have less questions than we do going into next season... But I'm still optimistic about what we have and what we could get. But most of my optimism is set in a good 2024-2025 season and not a good 2023-2024 season.

Luke Kennard!?!  Not a chance.

[Stuhoo 75,397]

6 minutes ago, rayl456 said:

Luke Kennard!?!  Not a chance.

He looks like him in the face. 
He currently plays much more like Tamar Bates.

[rayl456 386]

2 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

He looks like him in the face. 
He currently plays much more like Tamar Bates.

Maybe compare his spot up shooting ability to Kennard...but beyond that forget it.  Kennard was drafted #12 in 2017 and is still playing in San Diego.  I don't see Loyer having a NBA future.  He could play overseas, but not the NBA.

[Scotty R 1,897]

San Diego ? Haven't had a team for 40 years 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

29 minutes ago, rayl456 said:

Luke Kennard!?!  Not a chance.

 

22 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

He looks like him in the face. 
He currently plays much more like Tamar Bates.

Loyer as a freshman: 11ppg, 2.4 apg, 32.6% on 5.2 attempts from 3,

Kennard: 11.8 ppg, 1.5 apg, 32% on 4.8 attempts from 3

I'm not saying Loyer will be a lottery pick after next season, but Kennard was a "horrible shooter" as a freshman. He shot 43.8% from 3 on 5.4 attempts his Sophomore year. I'd say Loyer will probably be around 40% as well from 3 next year. Maybe not average 20 like Kennard, but can average 15. 

[Stuhoo 75,397]

5 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

 

Loyer as a freshman: 11ppg, 2.4 apg, 32.6% on 5.2 attempts from 3,

Kennard: 11.8 ppg, 1.5 apg, 32% on 4.8 attempts from 3

I'm not saying Loyer will be a lottery pick after next season, but Kennard was a "horrible shooter" as a freshman. He shot 43.8% from 3 on 5.4 attempts his Sophomore year. I'd say Loyer will probably be around 40% as well from 3 next year. Maybe not average 20 like Kennard, but can average 15. 

And he looks like him! 

 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

9 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

And he looks like him! 

 

Maybe there was a well traveled milk man?

[RaceToTheTop 23,436]

3 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

 

Loyer as a freshman: 11ppg, 2.4 apg, 32.6% on 5.2 attempts from 3,

Kennard: 11.8 ppg, 1.5 apg, 32% on 4.8 attempts from 3

I'm not saying Loyer will be a lottery pick after next season, but Kennard was a "horrible shooter" as a freshman. He shot 43.8% from 3 on 5.4 attempts his Sophomore year. I'd say Loyer will probably be around 40% as well from 3 next year. Maybe not average 20 like Kennard, but can average 15. 

have to say, though, that I can’t think of any player whose percentage of three point shots that were wide open looks higher than Loyer’s.  Braden Smith IMO is a hell of a lot better player than Loyer.

[hoosierbgh 1,227]

Odd, apparently the optimism referenced in the title has more to do with Purdue and Fletcher Loyer than IU.  

[Chris007 41,805]

1 hour ago, hoosierbgh said:

Odd, apparently the optimism referenced in the title has more to do with Purdue and Fletcher Loyer than IU.  

There are just some who could never have optimism for IU  basketball but they love IU.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

9 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

have to say, though, that I can’t think of any player whose percentage of three point shots that were wide open looks higher than Loyer’s.  Braden Smith IMO is a hell of a lot better player than Loyer.

It definitely helps having a 9 foot tall statue in the post. But don't tell Purdue fans... His size has literally nothing to do with his play. Skill only.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

1 hour ago, Chris007 said:

There are just some who could never have optimism for IU  basketball but they love IU.

I consider it "unbiased recognition."