I'll Be The Optimist For Once

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,181]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

32.6%. If it were 33% percent it would be excellen... wait, no it wouldn't. It would still be a two guard without strength that gets pulled for end game defensive possessions and shoots volume below average, even with his post getting double and triple teamed. Right now, Fletcher Loyer is Tamar Bates.

Our starting backcourt next year appears to be, absent additional upgrades, Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway. That's a whole lot better than Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Defends better, gets to the rim better, can break a freakin press, and shoots far better.

If that's what Painter has set for the next three years I'm feeling pretty good about Purdue being fine but not great, and hopefully those guys starting as freshmen scares away recruits or portal transfers that would be upgrades.

You're still talking about two freshmen. Who will improve, especially under Painter. Funny thing is, Indiana fans would be claiming those two as the best backcourt in the nation next year if they wore IU jerseys and talking about how 32.6% from 3 is a great building block.

[Stuhoo 75,522]

4 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

You're still talking about two freshmen. Who will improve, especially under Painter. Funny thing is, Indiana fans would be claiming those two as the best backcourt in the nation next year if they wore IU jerseys and talking about how 32.6% from 3 is a great building block.

And...there goes your optimism - of course not everyone improves. You know who improves most often? The players that barely play as freshmen, have a lot to learn, and do so.

Not everyone improves under Painter, especially guards that play a lot as freshmen. Newman, Ivey, Stefanovich, Morton, Ronnie Johnson, Eric Hunter, Isaiah Thompson, PJ Thompson and on and on. 

For each of these guys, check out their stats from the first year they started getting 20 minutes+ per game and compare that to their last year at Purdue. Not a pretty sight for improvement.

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

You're still talking about two freshmen. Who will improve, especially under Painter. Funny thing is, Indiana fans would be claiming those two as the best backcourt in the nation next year if they wore IU jerseys and talking about how 32.6% from 3 is a great building block.

Every fan base is going to say that about whoever is playing for them.    I would hope if they were wearing an IU jersey and they just got torched but FDU guards in the tourney that they could take a step back and realize if they wanted to get back to where they want to be that those 2 might not be the best way to achieve that but fans are fanatics so  who knows.    Those 2 are going to win a lot of games for Purdue in their career. Not sure how many of those wins will be after March 18th of every year 

[tkbbn 481]

1 hour ago, Chris007 said:

Would you be OK with let's say giving him 300K, and another 50-75K to move his family to Bloomington?

You want those kind of numbers then you have to be putting up some good numbers. Get your butt in the gym and earn it, make yourself valuable. Its free enterprise out there. Become valuable.

[Scotty R 1,897]

8 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

I'm not sure what world you're living in where 33% on 5 attempts is "horrible." That's pretty good. And only a freshman that'll be back next year(and probably 2 after that). Unfortunately, Painter has them pretty well set in the backcourt for the next 3 years. Right now, it's still a question mark as to what our backcourt even looks like next season.

33% shooting is pretty bad in my opinion. I see stats where people think a guy is a good shooter when I see a stat line of 43/34/75 and I am amazed that is considered a good shooter.

[HoosierHoopster 6,016]

18 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

33% shooting is pretty bad in my opinion. I see stats where people think a guy is a good shooter when I see a stat line of 43/34/75 and I am amazed that is considered a good shooter.

A little push back Scott. Don't think many consider 43/34/75 a good shooter (or 33% from the arc)-- the 75% FT's is decent, but a "good" shooter shoots better than the 43/34. If we're talking development though, a guy shooting 33% or 34% from deep can improve -- and LCS was pointing out it was 33% on just 5 attempts.

just consider Gallo, for one of many, many examples: Frosh (18% 3's), Soph (21% 3's), Jr (46%). His shot could have been developed last year. And last year many were calling his shot "broken," terrible, would never be a shooter, etc.  He also improved from a (bad) 64% FT shooter to a (decent) 74% FT shooter. 

[Hardwood83 4,485]

16 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

And Matt Painter isn’t Mike Woodson. 

Another major plus? After single plays against Minnesota, Penn State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin last year, we are relatively likely to get double plays against them all next year.

This could be as big/bigger factor than the roster! 

I'm not optimistic yet, but there are some solid pieces to build around,  but I think they still need "the guy" though. Someone to replace TJD as the go to & leader. I'm not convinced that guy is on the team already. 

Best case IU gets XJ back (in all conference form), other returners improve (providing genuine depth) and a few new key components transfer in, resulting in a more well-rounded team and a season comparable to this year- top 3rd of B1G and NCAA bid.

Worst case? Ugh. 

[str8baller 4,742]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Those 2 are going to win a lot of games for Purdue in their career. Not sure how many of those wins will be after March 18th of every year

You could say the same about Galloway, Bates, and maybe XJ.  Are we looking to recruit over those guys? Serious question. 

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

22 minutes ago, str8baller said:

You could say the same about Galloway, Bates, and maybe XJ.  Are we looking to recruit over those guys? Serious question. 

Yes.  A national title contending program recruits over guys and worries about the fallout later 

[bigrod 2,784]

17 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

People want to compare Cupps to Braden Smith and infer the Purdue success model while forgetting that Edey was 95% of Purdues success this year. We don’t have an Edey. Reneau is our best chance at a dominant player next year and that is asking for a miracle.


Sent from my iPad using BtownBanners mobile app

Not suggesting he knows everything, but I have a friend who spoke to one of the national recruiting analysts. He asked him to compare Smith and Cupps. Long story short, he said Cupps was better.

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

23 minutes ago, str8baller said:

You could say the same about Galloway, Bates, and maybe XJ.  Are we looking to recruit over those guys? Serious question. 

If Painter isn’t trying to recruit over his current players then he really isn’t doing  his job that well.   Painter had a redshirt Newman and chose to over recruit him with Loyer.  To his credit he stuck with the program and came off the bench at the beginning of the year.  He was starting at the end of the year with Loyer.   

[Stuhoo 75,522]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

If Painter isn’t trying to recruit over his current players then he really isn’t doing  his job that well.   Painter had a redshirt Newman and chose to over recruit him with Loyer.  To his credit he stuck with the program and came off the bench at the beginning of the year.  He was starting at the end of the year with Loyer.   

Painter's problem is perception by recruits that the young starters are entrenched for the long term. He can tell recruits that every position is wide open, but they will question whether that's true when there are returning 30 minute per game guys there.

It's one of the major portal recruiting advantages IU has going into this offseason  that we did not have last year.

[go iu bb 4,785]

24 minutes ago, bigrod said:

Not suggesting he knows everything, but I have a friend who spoke to one of the national recruiting analysts. He asked him to compare Smith and Cupps. Long story short, he said Cupps was better.

How about the long version? 

[RaceToTheTop 23,542]

23 minutes ago, go iu bb said:

How about the long version? 

That’s what she said.

[Chris007 42,023]

My optimism is that player meetings should happen today, tomorrow, and Friday because it's supposed to rain every day and the golf course should be closed for the rest of the week. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,181]

4 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Every fan base is going to say that about whoever is playing for them.    I would hope if they were wearing an IU jersey and they just got torched but FDU guards in the tourney that they could take a step back and realize if they wanted to get back to where they want to be that those 2 might not be the best way to achieve that but fans are fanatics so  who knows.    Those 2 are going to win a lot of games for Purdue in their career. Not sure how many of those wins will be after March 18th of every year 

Well yea that's obviously not a great thing. And I don't expect them to ever be Oladipos on the defensive end. Definitely seems that a lot of Purdue fans want a style change. Obviously offensively Smith and Loyer can be really good in college. There is no doubt about that. But it's definitely some sorta irrational bias to believe they won't be a good backcourt. Hell at some point you have to take a step back from your own fandom to realize that Indiana's players aren't the only guys that can improve... And considering the amount of terrible guessing around here when it came to Purdue to begin the season.... Obviously the backcourt had it's flaws, and many hidden because of the freaking giant down low, but all things to grow on. For whatever reason, those two freshmen guards were more ready than any our freshman guard not named JHS. And Gunn has a lot of potential as a 3 and D guy in college. So as Stuhoo was saying, Gunn hasn't played a lot and has a ton to work on. Smith/Loyer have played a ton, and should know what to work on. Mainly defense.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,181]

3 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

My optimism is that player meetings should happen today, tomorrow, and Friday because it's supposed to rain every day and the golf course should be closed for the rest of the week. 

So we should know who is transferring out by next week probably? Got a feeling about Duncomb, Bates and Geronimo... And I'm fine with all 3 leaving personally.

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

6 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Well yea that's obviously not a great thing. And I don't expect them to ever be Oladipos on the defensive end. Definitely seems that a lot of Purdue fans want a style change. Obviously offensively Smith and Loyer can be really good in college. There is no doubt about that. But it's definitely some sorta irrational bias to believe they won't be a good backcourt. Hell at some point you have to take a step back from your own fandom to realize that Indiana's players aren't the only guys that can improve... And considering the amount of terrible guessing around here when it came to Purdue to begin the season.... Obviously the backcourt had it's flaws, and many hidden because of the freaking giant down low, but all things to grow on. For whatever reason, those two freshmen guards were more ready than any our freshman guard not named JHS. And Gunn has a lot of potential as a 3 and D guy in college. So as Stuhoo was saying, Gunn hasn't played a lot and has a ton to work on. Smith/Loyer have played a ton, and should know what to work on. Mainly defense.

Who said they won’t be a good backcourt? I just said they are going to win a ton of games for Purdue however if Purdue wants to take the next step and actually go far in March some feel that they might need to recruit a more athletic backcourt.   Do you feel Purdue can win it all with those 2 as your main 2 guards?    Winning B1G titles is one thing but playing against SEC type of guards and wings is another.  Heck maybe they will be just fine going against that in later tourneys but first they got to figure out how to get past NEC, MEAC and Conference USA type of athletes first.    

[str8baller 4,742]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yes.  A national title contending program recruits over guys and worries about the fallout later 

I agree with that. I do wonder what the “fallout “ would be to something like sending Galloway back to the bench and 15-20 min a game. That would be his ceiling on a national contender.  
 

Indiana fans would get over it, I think. But I feel like historically Indiana HS coaches, and thus recruiting, has been an insular and finicky bunch.  
 

This will be an enlightening offseason in several ways. 

[Stuhoo 75,522]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Well yea that's obviously not a great thing. And I don't expect them to ever be Oladipos on the defensive end. Definitely seems that a lot of Purdue fans want a style change. Obviously offensively Smith and Loyer can be really good in college. There is no doubt about that. But it's definitely some sorta irrational bias to believe they won't be a good backcourt. Hell at some point you have to take a step back from your own fandom to realize that Indiana's players aren't the only guys that can improve... And considering the amount of terrible guessing around here when it came to Purdue to begin the season.... Obviously the backcourt had it's flaws, and many hidden because of the freaking giant down low, but all things to grow on. For whatever reason, those two freshmen guards were more ready than any our freshman guard not named JHS. And Gunn has a lot of potential as a 3 and D guy in college. So as Stuhoo was saying, Gunn hasn't played a lot and has a ton to work on. Smith/Loyer have played a ton, and should know what to work on. Mainly defense.

Here's my point:

At Purdue (or anywhere else, but in this case, Purdue) the amount that a guard improves from the first year they are the starter to the end of their college career can be negligible. 

So let's compare some Purdue guards from the first year they started to their last year.

For each of these,

• top line is last year as starter and 
• bottom line is first year as starter :

PJ Thompson
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
37    27.9    46.0    44.1    84.4    1.8    1.8    0.1    1.2    1.9    0.9    7.5
35    22.6    43.8    41.5    82.8    2.1    2.7    0.0    0.7    1.6    0.7    5.7

Ronnie Johnson
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
32    16.4    43.3    37.9    71.7    1.8    2.3    0.0    0.7    1.0    1.2    7.8
34    31.2    38.5    16.7    59.6    3.4    4.1    0.1    1.0    2.3    2.6    10.3

Ethan Morton
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35    25.2    32.0    27.7    64.9    2.9    2.4    0.5    0.8    1.5    0.9    3.8
37    14.8    47.7    44.1    68.4    1.4    1.4    0.2    0.6    0.8    0.5    2.4

Eric Hunter

GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
37    25.8    46.2    43.6    68.5    2.1    2.0    0.0    0.6    1.5    1.2    6.2
31    31.5    41.5    35.5    76.1    3.3    2.6    0.1    1.0    2.5    2.0    10.6

Brandon Newman
GP    MIN    FG%    3P%    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35    17.7    36.2    31.0    74.5    3.1    1.1    0.3    0.5    1.5    1.0    6.0
28    23.6    39.8    37.9    93.8    3.5    1.3    0.4    0.8    1.9    1.6    8.0

Carsen Edwards

MIN    FGM-FGA    FG%    3PM-3PA    3P%    FTM-FTA    FT%    REB    AST    BLK    STL    PF    TO    PTS
35.4    7.7-19.5    .394    3.8-10.6    .355    5.1-6.1    .837    3.6    2.9    0.3    1.3    2.0    3.1    24.3
23.3    3.7-9.6    .382    1.4-4.1    .340    1.6-2.1    .743    2.6    1.8    0.1    1.0    1.9    1.8    10.3

Ivey and Edwards got statistically better from first year as a starter to last year as a starter. Edwards, Morton, Hunter, Johnson, PJ Thompson, Isaiah Thompson, and Newman did not get statistically better after they became a starter; in fact, some of them got significantly worse in years after their first year as a starter. Many of them got better compared to when they were 10 minute per game players, but once they got the full time job they were static or worse as years passed.

Ample evidence that once guards get a full chance at Purdue, they don't necessarily develop. Loyer may stay as a below average defender and shooter, and Smith may remain a good shooter that turns it over a bunch.