Game Thread: NCAA R64 vs. Kent State - 3/17 @ 10:45 pm (no lie)ET on TBS

[RaceToTheTop 23,783]

1 minute ago, hoosierbgh said:

Yes, to a degree and within the assumptions of the model. 

This is a solid point.  The models have to make assumptions for what they can’t measure.  For instance, at some point size factors do make difference that might not be caught at micro levels.  A team’s 6’6” power forward may match up well with another team’s 6’8” power forward who in turn matches up well with a third team’s 6’10” power forward. The assumption that the 6’6” power forward matches up with the 6’10” one, though, might make statistical sense that doesn’t actually play out in reality.

[Scotty R 1,897]

1 hour ago, Whoozhers said:

If we get by K State….. We would play at 12:10 EST Sunday?

Is that right?

I would doubt they would have the teams from the night session playing the first game on Sunday 

[go iu bb 4,794]

46 minutes ago, OliviaPope40 said:

Did Galloway just roll out bed?

Maybe. Duncomb, Race, and Banks look asleep on their feet. lol

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,826]

[/url] Did Galloway just roll out bed?

Duncomb front and center with what I’d call a smile.


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[Stuhoo 75,753]

3 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Duncomb front and center with what I’d call a smile.


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His sinuses look surprisingly good!

[coonhounds 8,693]

I would doubt they would have the teams from the night session playing the first game on Sunday 

Yea not sure but I think once when I was younger we played Washington at 10 on a Thursday and st johns at noon on Saturday. I could be wrong but that is my memory of it.

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[Dave from Dayton 2,582]

48 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

His sinuses look surprisingly good!

You looked? Ewww...

[Hoosierfan1901 5,797]

 

[Hovadipo 52,979]

At risk of hitting the “we’re all talk” bs wasp nest…some good stuff from MM All-Access. 

We have some Mike Woodson 3rd person in there too!

[HoosierHoopster 6,064]

1 hour ago, Hovadipo said:

At risk of hitting the “we’re all talk” bs wasp nest…some good stuff from MM All-Access. 

We have some Mike Woodson 3rd person in there too!

It's TJD's drive in his last shot at getting deep in the tourney that has me optimistic, with JHS's floor-running and scoring, the experience from last year, the other seniors, and the ability of a 2-3 other guys to have big nights. We're not winning a NC, but I think we get to the SW16 -- showdown with Sampson?

[pappy1865 2,174]

**** it. I've had a crappy week in life. Like, seriously. I'm Taylor Swift, "it's me, hi, I'm the problem it's me" at this point. Just go out and go 6 and 0 and hang that fricking banner. Eff it

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[hoosierbgh 1,227]

11 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Doubling Trayce hasn’t really shut him down this year, though, because of how well he passes it.  Teams that have defended us best had a physical big center to guard him with.

Those teams also typically had enough size to contain Race and Reneau at the same time. I don't think that is the case with Kent St. Also, forcing TJD into taking tougher than normal shots is all well and good but can Kent St. then also manage to keep TJD, Race, and Reneau from getting a bunch of offensive rebounds on top of defending them. I could easily see where IU's best offense against Kent St. may well be to get the ball on the boards and have the bigs go to work. 

[jbeaman9 1,013]

58 minutes ago, hoosierbgh said:

Those teams also typically had enough size to contain Race and Reneau at the same time. I don't think that is the case with Kent St. Also, forcing TJD into taking tougher than normal shots is all well and good but can Kent St. then also manage to keep TJD, Race, and Reneau from getting a bunch of offensive rebounds on top of defending them. I could easily see where IU's best offense against Kent St. may well be to get the ball on the boards and have the bigs go to work. 

They've also had success with bringing a double that also has size. If Kent State brings a 6'1/6'3/5'10 guard to try and double, TJD can look right over the top of them. He just has to recognize their rotations and disect it like he has all season.

[HoosierAloha 29,897]

2 hours ago, hoosierbgh said:

Those teams also typically had enough size to contain Race and Reneau at the same time. I don't think that is the case with Kent St. Also, forcing TJD into taking tougher than normal shots is all well and good but can Kent St. then also manage to keep TJD, Race, and Reneau from getting a bunch of offensive rebounds on top of defending them. I could easily see where IU's best offense against Kent St. may well be to get the ball on the boards and have the bigs go to work. 

Hopefully TJD goes AT the rim when in the post against smaller defenders. I noticed several times in the Penn State game he started fading or allowed himself to be moved off the post. We need aggressive on offense TJD.

[jbeaman9 1,013]

3 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Hopefully TJD goes AT the rim when in the post against smaller defenders. I noticed several times in the Penn State game he started fading or allowed himself to be moved off the post. We need aggressive on offense TJD.

One thing he needs to be aware of is them baiting him into offensive foul calls while backing in the smaller guys. Refs love those and they will set him up to get some quick calls against him.

[hoosierbgh 1,227]

13 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Hopefully TJD goes AT the rim when in the post against smaller defenders. I noticed several times in the Penn State game he started fading or allowed himself to be moved off the post. We need aggressive on offense TJD.

Absolutely! Hopefully, he is not only in attack mode but also in "get every miss and slam it home" mode as well. 

[ray 1,560]

I’ve watched Kent State in person and on television this season. I’ve seen them play extremely well, but I’ve also seen them play less than stellar. Within the MAC, they were a very good team. With IU’s tendency to be lackadaisical at times recovering loose balls and throwing the ball away while guarded or not, I can see Kent State’s defense and effort being problematic. However, even if Carry goes off, which is quite likely unless someone locks him down, I don’t think they can handle TJD and crew down low. If TJD wants his, and comes out to play in his beast mode like this is a “one-and-done” tournament game…attacking the rim and kicking it out when necessary, then I think he dominates this game. And when they collapse the defense down under to stop him, he should have plenty of chances for assists to add to what “should be” a monster game on the glass and in the scoring column. This is a great matchup for TJD to show on the big stage that he’s a triple double threat. Can the guards score when he’s forced to kick it out and feed them? Will they all come out to play like it’s an all-or-nothing game and run down loose balls and crash the glass as a team? Who knows? One can hope. Will they turn themselves over on multiple occasions with bone-headed mistakes and miss 10 of 20 free throws? One can hope not.

IU needs to get to the line AND MAKE their free throws…put pressure on their bench. They have players off the bench who contribute, but the skill level drops off quickly. IU needs to keep out of foul trouble…TJD and more importantly, the ball handlers. They need to meet the ball on all their passes and chase down every loose ball. They need to feed the paint religiously. The post players need to play Batman and Robin. And when things get clogged up, the perimeter players need to be set and ready to shoot. Players need to be set (Kopp is money if his feet are set, but he tends to miss plenty when he’s sliding to the side before his shots or not facing straight at the basket when he receives the pass). 

I would also like to see JHS break down their guards and get into the lane. Driving on their guards should afford more chances for reach ins. Get their two premier guards in any type of foul trouble and this game’s dynamics change drastically. He can find his mid-range game and test his accuracy behind the arc, but if it’s not there he needs to drive and take it the hoop. Their guard play is what won them most their games. Their interior is weak in comparison to an All-American like TJD.

I’m betting Kent State hangs around awhile or gets down early then fights back, but then IU pulls away comfortably before the final buzzer by utilizing their superiority. Kent State is good, but if IU plays like there’s something to play for, then I don’t see this game being as close as many are predicting. IU has played some very lackluster games, and Kent State can put a lot of pressure on a team, but I don’t see Indiana coming out foggy and sluggish in this one…and even in most of IU’s lackluster performances, they were still in it against what I believe to be more difficult matchups and better competition.

My unprofessional and biased prediction: IU by 12 to 15 points, but it won’t come easy and it likely won’t be decided within the first half. I have a feeling the second period we’ll see TJD in a full-throttle effort and see a hard-nosed perimeter defense by Galloway, JHS, Bates, etc. Trayce begins his final run with 24 pts, 14 rebs, 6 assists, 4 blocks…or something along those lines. He puts the team on his back in this one, and others step up with opportunities because so much attention is on TJD.

Kent State is good. Indiana is better. Anyone can lose in March, and they need to come out focused and give everything they have, but Indiana SHOULD win this without having to fight back or without scrambling to pull it off at the end. 

What are we all worrying about Kent State for anyways? Katz and Smith say we fans need not worry until IU reaches the Final Four. Ha! I’m not yet sold on this (hopeful, but not sold), but I’m sold on IU making it out of the first round. 

End of senseless rant. Go Hoosiers!

[HoosierAloha 29,897]

1 hour ago, jbeaman9 said:

One thing he needs to be aware of is them baiting him into offensive foul calls while backing in the smaller guys. Refs love those and they will set him up to get some quick calls against him.

 

1 hour ago, hoosierbgh said:

Absolutely! Hopefully, he is not only in attack mode but also in "get every miss and slam it home" mode as well. 

Penn State didn't have a player that was going to block TJD when he got in and around the lane but he took a couple of weak shots. Reneau missed some shots but he backed his defender down and then went up for the shot. This is mainly what I'm looking for with TJD against Kent State. He won't need to go through a defender leaving it up to officials to make a call. Him elevating and hitting the baby hook will be plenty.

[Five Prime 1,076]

Why can't we win this whole thing?  

[Hoosierfan1901 5,797]

42 minutes ago, Five Prime said:

Why can't we win this whole thing?  

Because Woodson is already ejected from the Kent State game