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Herotime

JHS— NBA Bound

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He’s gone and he should be gone. 

If im JHS a big part of me would want another shot at the tournament after going out like that and as a fan I definitely want him to return to IU, but anyone who has JHS best interests in mind should be telling him to go to the NBA and further his career. 


Lucky for us however, players leaving for the NBA isn’t a zero sum game. There’s a lot of value for the program in bringing in a good recruit not really on anyone’s draft radar and turning him into an expected borderline lottery pick. Hopefully his time here will pay dividends in recruiting. 

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What will he get paid to do at the next level? Take care of the ball and get into sets/ position basketball. Grade A. He’s big at 6’6” plus size and Uber athletic on display every night. He goes up naturally and straight up rarely off balance and continually displays maturity beyond his years. He’s not perfect goes for stretches playing too loose and sometimes casual. But he is NBA baby and we’re blessed to have him played at IU. Help us recruit the next JHS!

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Pulling up some recent draft rankings I see him ranked 19th, 25th, and one out of the first round.  
 

The other problem is that a couple guys left in the tourney, like Colby Jones, are starting to climb up the board.  
 

A lot will come down to JHS’s mindset. If he’s dead set on going, he’ll go even if there’s a chance he could slide all the way back to late first round (not a great spot from a roster perspective) or second round.  
 

I wonder if IU NIL folks will try and pony up some money to appeal to him to stay. 

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Wouldn't be surprised to see him declare, but not hire an agent. 

That's good for the player, and certainly his right -- but kind of a pain in the @$$ for us nosey fans who want to know what he's gonna do and are eager to see what our roster will look like next season. 

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31 minutes ago, LamarCheeks said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see him declare, but not hire an agent. 

That's good the player, and certainly his right -- but kind of a pain in the @$$ for us nosey fans who want to know what he's gonna do and are eager to see what our roster will look like next season. 

Sure, but if he does that he's not getting that "slam dunk" vibe.  And in today's NIL environment who knows.  Would you rather:

Ride busses, stay in motel 6, and play in crappy half filled arena in the G-league OR

Travel first class, full arenas of adoring fans, Nicks/Kilroys, et. al., and still make a few bucks at IU.  

 

 

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For perspective on getting selected at the end of the 1st round. You have two types of teams selecting there: good teams or awful teams “collecting assets.”  
 

For the former, it’s hard to crack the rotation, and for the latter you’re often prioritized behind much more prized young players and serve as trade fodder.  
 

Just looking at last year and the last thirteen picks (18-30), it breaks down roughly like this. 

-only four have appeared in most of the team’s games. 
-the majority have appeared in less than half their games

-I’d say a solid third or more have had G-league stints or are there currently. 
 

Compare that to the lottery where everyone, except one player, not injured has appeared in almost all their teams games. Most get heavy minutes. The one exception is Johhny Davis, who I actually think is a fairly decent comp to JHS. Davis has been awful.   
 

So the difference between 13/14 and 22-ish is huge, and can have a big impact on your career going forward.   

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20 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Sure, but if he does that he's not getting that "slam dunk" vibe.  And in today's NIL environment who knows.  Would you rather:

Ride busses, stay in motel 6, and play in crappy half filled arena in the G-league OR

Travel first class, full arenas of adoring fans, Nicks/Kilroys, et. al., and still make a few bucks at IU.  

 

 

He wouldn’t be old enough for Nicks/Kilroys next year. Even if he’s playing in the G league, he getting millions guaranteed if he’s a first round pick. Your first two years are guaranteed. Years 3 and 4 are team options. Teams rarely don’t pick up a first rounder’s option. 

The last first round pick last year is making $2.193 million this year. Next year he’s at $2.3 million. Just under $4.5 million guaranteed. Someone saw a projection with him going 19th. Last year’s 19th pick is making $3 million this year and will make a little over $6.2 million in his first two years. If his options get picked up in year 3 and 4, he’ll make around $14.76 million over his first four years.

He could come back and improve his draft stock. He could also come back and hurt it. He could get injured and never be the same again. It’s hard for a 19 year old old to turn down multi-millions to come back to college and be a student. Maybe he can make millions in NIL? Idk where we’re at with dollar amounts.

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1 hour ago, str8baller said:

Pulling up some recent draft rankings I see him ranked 19th, 25th, and one out of the first round.  
 

The other problem is that a couple guys left in the tourney, like Colby Jones, are starting to climb up the board.  
 

A lot will come down to JHS’s mindset. If he’s dead set on going, he’ll go even if there’s a chance he could slide all the way back to late first round (not a great spot from a roster perspective) or second round.  
 

I wonder if IU NIL folks will try and pony up some money to appeal to him to stay. 

Jonathan Givony - one of the very few guys, imo, worth paying attention to for draft stuff - has him going 9th in his most recent mock. 

Sam Vecenie - also reputable - has him 17th on his big board. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The last first round pick last year is making $2.193 million this year. Next year he’s at $2.3 million. Just under $4.5 million guaranteed. Someone saw a projection with him going 19th. Last year’s 19th pick is making $3 million this year and will make a little over $6.2 million in his first two years. If his options get picked up in year 3 and 4, he’ll make around $14.76 million over his first four years.

Just looking back everyone pretty much makes it to year 3. It’s about 50-75% chance to make it to you 4 for the back end of the draft.  
 

By comparison all lottery picks have made it to year 4 the last couple drafts. And moving up to the 10th pick a la Johnny Davis nets you $5mil/yr contract worth $20mil over 4 years.  
 

So the difference between 19th and waiting a year and getting to about 10 is $5mil dollars and an increased likelihood you stick around the league. Plus whatever he can offset with NIL.   
 

Obviously sliding to the second round makes your prospects much worse. Little guaranteed money, very high chance of going to G league and pretty much a career of fighting for a roster spot unless you break out. 

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4 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Jonathan Givony - one of the very few guys, imo, worth paying attention to for draft stuff - has him going 9th in his most recent mock. 

Good to know. I don’t follow draft stuff anymore so I was just picking reputable sites, not people. 
 

At 9, he’s gone. 

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In a vacuum, Rob Phinissee and Yogi Ferrell had similar statistical freshman year.  Context is important.

If Gabe Cupps averaged 7 1/2 points and 4 assists as a freshman:

1.  He's more ready than most people think or

2.  He's forced into playing more minutes than 

3.  A combination of 1 and 2.

BUT this thread is about optimism, so Cupps will be a 20/10/10 guy next year.  Let's get back on track, guys.

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1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

In a vacuum, Rob Phinissee and Yogi Ferrell had similar statistical freshman year.  Context is important.

If Gabe Cupps averaged 7 1/2 points and 4 assists as a freshman:

1.  He's more ready than most people think or

2.  He's forced into playing more minutes than 

3.  A combination of 1 and 2.

BUT this thread is about optimism, so Cupps will be a 20/10/10 guy next year.  Let's get back on track, guys.

You may be in the wrong thread. ;)

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3 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

He wouldn’t be old enough for Nicks/Kilroys next year. Even if he’s playing in the G league, he getting millions guaranteed if he’s a first round pick. Your first two years are guaranteed. Years 3 and 4 are team options. Teams rarely don’t pick up a first rounder’s option. 

The last first round pick last year is making $2.193 million this year. Next year he’s at $2.3 million. Just under $4.5 million guaranteed. Someone saw a projection with him going 19th. Last year’s 19th pick is making $3 million this year and will make a little over $6.2 million in his first two years. If his options get picked up in year 3 and 4, he’ll make around $14.76 million over his first four years.

He could come back and improve his draft stock. He could also come back and hurt it. He could get injured and never be the same again. It’s hard for a 19 year old old to turn down multi-millions to come back to college and be a student. Maybe he can make millions in NIL? Idk where we’re at with dollar amounts.

Thanks, Mr. Buzzkill.  :) 

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My buddy texted me this morning, asked if JHS was returning . When I asked what he’s heard, he said that someone had mentioned a Facebook post from JHS saying he was staying. I am most certainly not claiming this as fact or probable, just wanted to hear if anyone had heard anything else 

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