2022/23 Minutes Per Game Predictions

[Stuhoo 75,677]

Assuming everyone is healthy, let's hear your 2022-23 minutes per game predictions. 

• Make it add up to 232-ish 
• Feel free to amend as we progress toward go time

I'll give it a try first:

• TJD: 31
• X: 28
• JHS: 26
• Race: 24
• Geronimo: 24
• Bates: 23
• Reneau: 21
• Gallo: 16
• Banks: 15
• Kopp: 11
• Leal: 6
• Gunn: 4
• Duncomb: 3

Notes:

1. It was really hard to pare the minutes - I guess that's a very healthy thing.
2. It also was a good check on impulses that everyone that could have a major contribution is going to be on the floor enough to contribute.

[go iu bb 4,791]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

Notes:

1. It was really hard to pare this down to 200 minutes - I guess that's a very healthy thing.
2. It also was a good check on impulses that everyone that could have a major contribution is going to be on the floor enough to contribute.

Not that the 200 mpg criteria needs to change but a team's total mpg may actually total more than 200 mpg during the season. This is due to how the mpg are calculated since each individual player's numbers are calculated based on only the games in which they play. They are simply minutes played divided by games played. This can greatly skew some of the numbers for players who don't play a lot. An example would be Hunter from a few seasons ago. He was listed as playing around 9 or 10 mpg  even though he had numerous DNP-CD. This is just a way to say you can be correct even though it might not look like that at the end of the season if you just look at the numbers without calculating what I call effective mpg which is number of minutes played divided number of games the team played. In my Hunter example, his effective mpg was more like 3-4 mpg which was certainly more in line with the actual impact he had than the 9 mpg.

That said, I agree with a lot of your numbers although I think Geronimo will play less than that while Galloway will play more. If Kopp plays only 7 mpg that means that other players having a big impact which would be great for the team, so I hope you're correct there.

[Stuhoo 75,677]

 

Many thanks to go iu bb: looks like when you remove 'did not plays' from the equation, IU had a  total of 232 minutes per game played last year, so let's try to aim for around that number. That will capture the minutes per game for each player, only for the games they appear in.

 

[HoosierHoopster 6,063]

49 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Many thanks to go iu bb: looks like when you remove 'did not plays' from the equation, IU had a  total of 232 minutes per game played last year, so let's try to aim for around that number. That will capture the minutes per game for each player, only for the games they appear in.

 

Geronimo: 232 Min

Everyone else: 0

:)

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,807]

I ended up with 225 total. I think Top tier minutes will be TJD and Race.  I think XJ, JHS, Bates, Geronimo, Reneau are next tier in minutes.  I think Kopp, Galloway, Banks will be fighting for second tier minutes.  I think Gunn, Leal and Duncomb get the least.  But What do I know.  

 

TJD 33

Race 28

XJ 25

JHS 25

Bates 25

Geronimo 25

Reneau 17

Galloway 15

Kopp 10

Banks 8

Gunn 6

Leal 5

Duncomb 3

[lillurk 3,686]

In the early season, marquee non-conference games, I think you see something like this:

TJD	30
Race	28
X	30
JHS	25
Geronimo	23
Bates	20
Kopp	15
Galloway	15
Reneau	14

 

I’m optimistic about the other two frosh, especially Banks, who everyone mentions at press availabilities. So I can imagine he gets a look even in those big games, and if things go well, he’s eating into someone’s time.

The other flaw in my methodology is, of course, every scholarship player will get opportunity in real games. But trying to suss out average minutes for guys who will play 20 minutes some nights and get DNP-CDs some other nights is hard to fit into a 200 min average.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,082]

Mike Schumann's thoughts on how minutes will be allocated this season.

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/allocating-the-minutes-an-estimate-of-iu-basketball-playing-time-in-2022-23/?fbclid=IwAR34guDtKrZr1Eh8dxaMRMdQTQ2UKo2zZanzTfoDxWhWCOB3591yztwmca4

[Stuhoo 75,677]

5 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Mike Schumann's thoughts on how minutes will be allocated this season.

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/allocating-the-minutes-an-estimate-of-iu-basketball-playing-time-in-2022-23/?fbclid=IwAR34guDtKrZr1Eh8dxaMRMdQTQ2UKo2zZanzTfoDxWhWCOB3591yztwmca4

Lol...he made the same mistake that I did before go iu bb educated me: Minutes per game averages are calculated solely using the games that a player appears in. So when 'did not plays' are factored in, the team total minutes per game played was 232 last year, not 200.

For instance, Anthony Leal averaged 10.2 minutes per game last year, but that is calculated over the 17 games he appeared in; he played a total of 173 minutes in 17 games. If you'd done his minutes per game based on the total 35 IU games played, he would have been at 4.9 minutes per IU game. But that's not how it's done. 

So to get an accurate minutes per game picture of Schumann's projections, add about three-five minutes per game to each player.

[sixseis 22]

Except absolutely no one is wondering how many minutes Leal will get on average if you subtract games he does not play. What people do wonder is what an average actual game will look like with a healthy roster.

200 is the correct way to look at it for this exercise. 232 has merit, but it's not really what anyone cares about. 

[Stuhoo 75,677]

13 minutes ago, sixseis said:

Except absolutely no one is wondering how many minutes Leal will get on average if you subtract games he does not play. What people do wonder is what an average actual game will look like with a healthy roster.

200 is the correct way to look at it for this exercise. 232 has merit, but it's not really what anyone cares about. 

For instance, Schumann says in the article that Leal is projected for 4 minutes per game, but Schumann adds that Leal has played way more than that previously, so he could be wrong. If Schumann is going by the statistically listed minutes per game, the total of team statistically listed minutes per game averages is in the low 230's.

Using the 200 projection, Schumann has pretty much every returning player except Bates playing fewer minutes per game than last year, and the four new players totaling nine fewer minutes per game that the players they replaced. Do we really think it is an 'apples to apples' comparison when it projects Lander, Phinisee, Durr, and Stewart to have played 59 minutes per game last year, and JHS, Reneau, Banks, and Gunn to average 50 minutes per game?

 

[sixseis 22]

Yeah, it's fewer minutes because it's different metrics.

You ask someone how many minutes a game will Bates get and the thing I want to know is how many minutes per game will Bates play. I don't really care how it ends up when accounting for injuries, illnesses, and dnp's. I'm curious how his talent stacks up with the rest of our roster and how many minutes he commands.

If you're concerned with how the minutes compare to last year's totals then 232 is it, I don't see the point in it, but to each their own. 

[Stuhoo 75,677]

5 minutes ago, sixseis said:

Yeah, it's fewer minutes because it's different metrics.

You ask someone how many minutes a game will Bates get and the thing I want to know is how many minutes per game will Bates play. I don't really care how it ends up when accounting for injuries, illnesses, and dnp's. I'm curious how his talent stacks up with the rest of our roster and how many minutes he commands.

If you're concerned with how the minutes compare to last year's totals then 232 is it, I don't see the point in it, but to each their own. 

Seems like the best projection take away is the order of who gets the most minutes. Schumann thinks it is:

1. TJD
2. X
3. Race
4. JHS
5. Bates
6. Reneau
7. Kopp
8. Galloway
9. Geronimo
10. Banks
11. Leal
12. Duncomb
13. Gunn

So he apparently thinks that Bates is the most likely candidate to get starter minutes at the three and he does not think that Jordan G carves out a truly significant role. Geronimo played the eighth most minutes last year and I find it almost impossible to believe he'll play the ninth most minutes this year.

[Hoosierfan2017 19,902]

32 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Seems like the best projection take away is the order of who gets the most minutes. Schumann thinks it is:

1. TJD
2. X
3. Race
4. JHS
5. Bates
6. Reneau
7. Kopp
8. Galloway
9. Geronimo
10. Banks
11. Leal
12. Duncomb
13. Gunn

So he apparently thinks that Bates is the most likely candidate to get starter minutes at the three and he does not think that Jordan G carves out a truly significant role. Geronimo played the eighth most minutes last year and I find it almost impossible to believe he'll play the ninth most minutes this year.

In mpg Geronimo was 9th last year. He was only ahead of Trey in total minutes because he played 14 more games. He played 14 more games but only played 13 more total minutes. 

Of the 8 guys ahead of him in mpg last year, 6 of them are back, including the two frontcourt guys ahead of him. We added two freshmen who are better than Phinisee/Stewart. One of them is a top 30 frontcourt player. I could totally see Geronimo 9th in mpg again this year because I don’t see him developing into a starting wing in one offseason. We’re very strong at his position and got even stronger during the offseason. Of the 8 guys listed above, the only one I could see him getting more minutes than is Kopp, but we’ll need Kopp’s (theoretic) shooting so maybe not. 

[cthomas 5,930]

No matter how it shakes out, the competition for minutes is going to be insane. No possible way that doesn't make us better than a year ago.

[bigrod 2,786]

40 minutes ago, cthomas said:

No matter how it shakes out, the competition for minutes is going to be insane. No possible way that doesn't make us better than a year ago.

I really think (hope) that TJD, X, and Race have fewer minutes per game than last year. I think that will be an indication that we are not only better and deeper, but winning games by a wider margin and getting young guys more experience. Hopefully that allows the core guys to be fresher at the end of the season.

[Stuhoo 75,677]

17 minutes ago, bigrod said:

I really think (hope) that TJD, X, and Race have fewer minutes per game than last year. I think that will be an indication that we are not only better and deeper, but winning games by a wider margin and getting young guys more experience. Hopefully that allows the core guys to be fresher at the end of the season.

Don't worry, X routinely has first half foul trouble, which limits his minutes  :)

[Honkyman 1,670]

Geronimo will be in the top 8 for minutes played per game.

[Stuhoo 75,677]

20 minutes ago, Honkyman said:

Geronimo will be in the top 8 for minutes played per game.

I'll betcha our top seven are:

• TJD,
• X,
• Race,
• JHS,
• Malik,
• Jordan G, and
• Bates

with Kopp and Gallo as 8/9. There's five guys in that top seven that arguably will be able to hit a three at a decent clip, and good lord that's a big, strong, athletic group.

[HoosierHoopster 6,063]

I’m not clear at this point how it will shake out, and I think Kopp’s minutes should decrease but am not comfortable Woodson, who has heavily emphasized veteran players so far, will cut them much. Assuming it’s X and JHS starting at guard/on ball (I am pretty confident JHS starts), Kopp could get more shots and WHEN he actually shoots he’s a good (not great) shooter so Woodson may just roll out mostly the same group but with JHS. I don’t want that, but can see it as a possibility. But, if Banks is actually ready for real minutes at the B1G level, then Kopp may share more with him, and I think maybe a small amount with JG when he gets some run at wing in a different look, faster and more athletic lineup. 

I’ll take a stab at it in order of minutes but just don’t have a good feel until I see guys like Ren and Banks in college games

TJD

X

JHS

Race

Bates

Kopp

JG

Ren

Galloway

Banks

Leal

Duncomb

Gunn

 

[Honkyman 1,670]

1 hour ago, HoosierHoopster said:

TJD

X

JHS

Race

Bates

Kopp

JG

Ren

This is probably pretty accurate. I'm not sure JHS starts since he is also X's back-up but I'm sure he'll see time at both point and shooting guard which will add up to considerable time. I agree Kopp will be in the top 6 or 7.  He's the best 3-point shooter on a team that doesn't shoot well from the perimeter.  Geronimo showed late last season that he can score. He'll see time at the 3 if his 3-point shooting has improved. I don't see Galloway being higher than 9 unless his outside shot has improved considerably.