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Stuhoo

B1G Standings Predictions for 2022/2023

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1. Indiana

2. Ohio State

3. Illinois

4. Iowa

5. Michigan State

6. Michigan

7. Purdue

8. Wisconsin

9. Penn State

10. Rutgers

11.. Maryland

12. Minnesota

13. Northwestern

14. Nebraska

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1. IU

2. Illinois

3. Michigan

4. Michigan State

5. Ohio State

6. Purdue

7. Iowa

8. Rutgers

9. Minnesota

10. Wisconsin

11. Maryland

12. Penn State

13. Nebraska

14. Northwestern

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1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Such an excellent post Brass. Let me add some context about our floor:

A starting lineup of:

  • Trayce,
  • Race,
  • Kopp,
  • Gallo, and
  • X

is more a less a 21-23 win, just above .500 B1G team next year. That's our floor starting entirely last year's players with no additional new talent or contributions. It implies last year's Bates and Geronimo and no Durr, Phin or Stewart.

Now, add improved talent and contributions above and beyond that lineup from any one or more of:

  • Jordan G.,
  • JHS,
  • Bates,
  • Reneau, or
  • Banks.

What do you think the odds are that one or more of those five players significantly impacts our success? If you ask me, it's overwhelmingly likely. 

 

I agree that the odds of one or more of those players having an impact is high. 

Starting with the highest ranked out of HS of those. At least 1 of these 3 should make a big difference:

JHS -> 5*

Reneau -> 5*

Bates -> High 4*/5* (His composite score had him as a 5* without any ranking service having him as one), has 1 year experience.

That's 3 high 4*/5* players. The chances of every single one of them being a flop is very unlikely.

Geronimo is very athletic but has experience. If he can put it all together in the offseason he could make a big jump.

Banks is a solid 4*. These can be hit or miss on immediate impact. 

There is also Duncomb. His freshman season was a disappointment but he was a solid 4* out of HS who showed decent range on his shot. As disappointing as last year was, the coaching staff kept him around so they must have some confidence he can improve. 

Gunn might surprise but I don't expect much from him next year. However, he is another piece that shouldn't be overlooked as a possibility.

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3 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Such an excellent post Brass. Let me add some context about our floor:

A starting lineup of:

  • Trayce,
  • Race,
  • Kopp,
  • Gallo, and
  • X

is more a less a 21-23 win, just above .500 B1G team next year. That's our floor starting entirely last year's players with no additional new talent or contributions. It implies last year's Bates and Geronimo and no Durr, Phin or Stewart.

Now, add improved talent and contributions above and beyond that lineup from any one or more of:

  • Jordan G.,
  • JHS,
  • Bates,
  • Reneau, or
  • Banks.

What do you think the odds are that one or more of those five players significantly impacts our success? If you ask me, it's overwhelmingly likely. 

 

This is spot on, I had tried to say something similar in the summer thread but this is better.

I’ll do a table to pick each game, like @vemmeistars did, but to tip my hand a little more I’ll say I’m more bearish on OSU than the consensus here.

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11 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

We have a much higher floor than Illinois I think.  And a slightly higher ceiling. 
 

Our real difference Maker is Bates. If he can be the player we all hoped he can be. Able to drive or shoot from perimeter. Fingers crossed

100%. I think we have a higher floor than Illinois and all our returnees/experience lead me to believe we have a much higher floor than we did last year.

I think we will be top 3 next year but slightly temper my excitement because:

1) Its not as if we almost won the BT last year. This team was 9-11 in the BT, with a favorable BT schedule, and barely made the tourney.  
2) One of our biggest offensive weaknesses was the lack of a three level scorer making us almost singularly go into the post to TJD at crunch time.  I love our incoming class but none of them are currently thought of as three level threats as freshmen.  “On paper” we have not addressed our biggest offensive weakness from last year.  

On the other hand our 1,2,3 offensive production can improve

IF X can consistently play like he did the last 10 games or so (his 3 point stroke is rather “quirky” but he began to make defenses pay attention to him from the perimeter while he also was making better decisions down the lane),

IF JG can successfully transition to the three and most importantly, and to your point,

IF Bates becomes the 3 level guy we think he can be.  I think Bates, and then X, are the two keys as to how high our ceiling can be.

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On 6/16/2022 at 1:51 PM, Stuhoo said:

The schedules are out, so let's do this. Feel free to re-calibrate and re-post anytime you feel like it, and let's keep this thread to predictions on B1G standings for the coming season.

 

My current take?

  1. Our Indiana Hoosiers
  2. Ohio State
  3. Iowa
  4. Michigan State
  5. Rutgers
  6. Michigan
  7. Illinois
  8. Wisconsin
  9. Maryland
  10. Penn State
  11. Purdoo
  12. Northwestern
  13. Minnesota
  14. Nebraska

Wherever we finish, if it’s 7 spots above Wisconsin I’ll be grinning. 
Let water find it’s level, the slow drip back has been a long one

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32 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Unless there is a monetary prize for best prediction, I'll roll with this

1) IU (20-0)

2) Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin all at (10-10)

14) Purdue (0-20)

 

PU disqualified, season over

cheerleaders posed for Modern Dog mag

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Man, maybe I need to get myself more hyped but I'd take a top 4 finish in a heartbeat.  I know the big 10, on paper, should be down a bit next year but I can't yet predict a #1 finish for an IU program that has been so mediocre over the last 5+ years.  I hope you all are right.  

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3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Unless there is a monetary prize for best prediction, I'll roll with this

1) IU (20-0)

2) Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin all at (10-10)

14) Purdue (0-20)

 

I know this is facetious but it reminds how many people were throwing out an undefeated season as a real possibility in 12-13.

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1. INDIANA 

2.(tie) ILLINOIS,  OHIO STATE 

4. MICHIGAN STATE

5. MICHIGAN 

6. RUTGERS

7. IOWA 

8. WISCONSIN 

9. PURDUE 

10. PENN STATE

11. MARYLAND 

12. MINNESOTA 

13. NEBRASKA 

14. NORTHWESTERN 

 

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12 hours ago, HoosierX said:

I know this is facetious but it reminds how many people were throwing out an undefeated season as a real possibility in 12-13.

Man I hated reading that crap prior to that season!  I don’t know how anybody legitimately thought that was plausible?

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2 minutes ago, Ryno6284 said:

Man I hated reading that crap prior to that season!  I don’t know how anybody legitimately thought that was plausible?

We did have an insane amount of depth and talent.  But our style of play meant it was never going to happen plus the big ten was just stacked that year.  
 

If you had just looked at talent I could see the argument but given context it was silly 

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2 hours ago, Ryno6284 said:

Man I hated reading that crap prior to that season!  I don’t know how anybody legitimately thought that was plausible?

People that clearly never took finite math. Even if you have a 75% chance of winning every game, over the course of 30 games it's about a 1 in 10k chance that you go undefeated.

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1 hour ago, HoosierX said:

People that clearly never took finite math. Even if you have a 75% chance of winning every game, over the course of 30 games it's about a 1 in 10k chance that you go undefeated.

I took finite math at IU -- because it had the word "finite" in it. 

Only math requirement for my major, done with math. Lol

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I did a first pass at my sheet of every conference game for every team. I reserve the right to change this but as of today, 6/21/22, here’s how it shook out:

1. IU 16-4

2. Illinois 15-5

3. UM 14-6

*t-4. Purdue, UW, OSU 11-9

**7. Rutgers 10-10

**8. Iowa 10-10

**9. MSU 10-10

10. PSU 11-9

11. Maryland 7-13

***12. Northwestern 6-14

***13. Minnesota 6-14

14. Nebraska 4-16

Tiebreaks:

*Wisconsin beat Purdue but lost to OSU, and Purdue beat OSU, so absent other info  they all tie with the same record at 4th.

**Rutgers has the tiebreaker over MSU, split with Iowa, and Iowa split with MSU in my projections, thus the rank within the 10-10 teams

***NW won the only matchup between them and Minny.

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On 6/20/2022 at 8:07 PM, HoosierHoopster said:

PU disqualified, season over

cheerleaders posed for Modern Dog mag

There's no way Purdue cheerleaders could qualify for Modern Dog mag, maybe the rear end special of Potbelly Pig Monthly, but not Modern Dog. 

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1. Indiana 

2. Ohio State 

3. Purdue 

4. Michigan 

5. Iowa 

6. Michigan State 

7. Rutgers 

8. Illinois 

9. Maryland 

10. Wisconsin 

11. Penn State 

12. Northwestern 

13. Nebraska 

14. Minnesota 

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