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Stuhoo

IUBB Players in the Portal/Draft Exploratory Status

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1 minute ago, DChoosier said:

Second round money/guarantees have been getting better. Last year the 33rd and 43rd picks (I looked them up because I saw a couple services that slotted TJD in those positions) both received guarantees of around 2.5 million.

Depends on what the team wants to do with their second round pick. Some teams give guarantees and some give 2 ways. It just depends on how much they value the player. 

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4 hours ago, Demo said:

Absolutely. He only needs 1 team to fall in love.

I think no team falls in love with a second round pick or they would draft them in the first.  Second round guys are you the ones you like better than the other ones available.

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It's not just about comparing earnings from next year in the NBA v. NIL money for next year.  It's also about if/how much his draft value would increase if he didn't come out until next year.  If he could increase his draft value to 20th, the guarantee jumps up to almost twice the 35th position.  

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Teams sometimes take players with a local fan base but more often than not they go for the best player available.  Teams change their minds all the time on draft picks at the last moment depending upon whether an earlier team has passed on a player they want but didn't believe would be available. TJD may have to gamble that won't happen in his case.
Yeah I remember everyone wanted Steve Alford back in the day, but dang it we got Reggie. What a mistake 🤣

Sent from my SM-G950U using BtownBanners mobile app

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7 hours ago, ap2345 said:

Depends on what the team wants to do with their second round pick. Some teams give guarantees and some give 2 ways. It just depends on how much they value the player. 

You got me to look a little deeper into the 2021 2nd round and waste another 10 minutes of my life….LOL

In the first 13 picks of the second round of the 2021 draft (ie, until the 43 rd pick which I assume/guess TJD would not risk  going that deep) one player was a European that went to a Euro League, another guy, Joe Wisekamp from Iowa,  went to San Antonio and only got a 2 way with a 250k guarantee but the other 11 picks, of the first 13 in the second round, received guarantees of 2.5 million to over 4 million. The second round guaranteed money has greatly accelerated and I would assume is more tempting.

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9 minutes ago, DChoosier said:

You got me to look a little deeper into the 2021 2nd round and waste another 10 minutes of my life….LOL

In the first 13 picks of the second round of the 2021 draft (ie, until the 43 rd pick which I assume/guess TJD would not risk  going that deep) one player was a European that went to a Euro League, another guy, Joe Wisekamp from Iowa,  went to San Antonio and only got a 250k guarantee but the other 11 picks, of the first 13 in the second round, received guarantees of 2.5 million to over 4 million. The second round guaranteed money has greatly accelerated and I would assume is more tempting.

Yes and there’s a long, long list of very successful NBA players drafted in the 2d round, the guarantees aside

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1 hour ago, Hoosier DaDa said:

Yeah I remember everyone wanted Steve Alford back in the day, but dang it we got Reggie. What a mistake

Sent from my SM-G950U using BtownBanners mobile app
 

The funny thing was Alford was taken with the 26th pick overall (at the time that was the third pick of the second round) and that was too high.

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42 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Yes and there’s a long, long list of very successful NBA players drafted in the 2d round, the guarantees aside

I agree -- it's why so many people are wrong when they say 'it's a mistake' when a player leaves who isn't going to be a first round pick.  But I'm basing TJD's return/not return on his words that if he doesn't think he's going in the top 35, that he would probably come back.  I'm positive -- especially having an NBA day -- he is well aware of the expected payout of being drafted at a variety of spots already.  IMO, saying he would probably come back if he isn't going to be top 35 says that he likes playing at IU enough or feels he can improve his game enough to warrant staying out of the draft for a year.

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46 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I agree -- it's why so many people are wrong when they say 'it's a mistake' when a player leaves who isn't going to be a first round pick.  But I'm basing TJD's return/not return on his words that if he doesn't think he's going in the top 35, that he would probably come back.  I'm positive -- especially having an NBA day -- he is well aware of the expected payout of being drafted at a variety of spots already.  IMO, saying he would probably come back if he isn't going to be top 35 says that he likes playing at IU enough or feels he can improve his game enough to warrant staying out of the draft for a year.

Because for the most part, it is a mistake to leave to be a second round pick. 

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4 hours ago, DChoosier said:

You got me to look a little deeper into the 2021 2nd round and waste another 10 minutes of my life….LOL

In the first 13 picks of the second round of the 2021 draft (ie, until the 43 rd pick which I assume/guess TJD would not risk  going that deep) one player was a European that went to a Euro League, another guy, Joe Wisekamp from Iowa,  went to San Antonio and only got a 2 way with a 250k guarantee but the other 11 picks, of the first 13 in the second round, received guarantees of 2.5 million to over 4 million. The second round guaranteed money has greatly accelerated and I would assume is more tempting.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/08/2021-nba-draft-pick-signings.html#:~:text=Second-round picks%2C meanwhile%2C,cap room or various exceptions.

This story is a bit older, but I would assume it's very similar: https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/05/10/in-the-money-second-round-picks-cash-in-guaranteed-contracts-at-exceedingly-high-rates/
 

And then just other articles covering this topic: 

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2020/11/29/xavier-tillman-memphis-grizzlies-rookie-contract/

https://franchisesports.co.uk/nba-rookie-contracts-explained/

 

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TJD's decision come from a different perspective than most having the ability to bend his former pro father's ear. He will get a trusted opinion on the pros and cons. Maybe dad tells him being the BMOC one more year can never be replaced, maybe he says the NBA is grind of a job, or maybe he says grab the NBA chance by the horns.

While I would love to have TJD back, I honestly don't see him getting better or improving his draft stock with one more year. I fully expected to see him extend his range under Woodson's offense and he absolutely did not. He still rarely likes to go to his off hand and the dunks he thrives on will not be there against NBA defenders.  He is a great college player whose game does not translate well to the NBA.I would gladly eat my words if he came back and expanded his game, it just doesn't seem likely.

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15 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Because for the most part, it is a mistake to leave to be a second round pick. 

It really depends.  Let's take a guy like Troy Williams -- left after his junior year, even went undrafted.  Played in the league in bits of seasons from 2016-2019.  Career earnings are $2.9 million in the NBA plus about $240,000 that he will still receive in guaranteed money....so roughly $3 million in career earnings.  Did he make a mistake in coming out despite not being drafted?

That all comes down to if an extra year in college would have increased his draft value.  At the NBA level, he was a 45/30 shooter.  I'm not necessarily convinced that he was ever going to be more than a 30% shooter from the longer distance at the NBA level.....it's not like he didn't get a chance to work on that in the G league just like he would have at IU his senior year.  His junior year at IU he was a 35% shooter from deep....I think he was probably close to his college ceiling then.

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3 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

It really depends.  Let's take a guy like Troy Williams -- left after his junior year, even went undrafted.  Played in the league in bits of seasons from 2016-2019.  Career earnings are $2.9 million in the NBA plus about $240,000 that he will still receive in guaranteed money....so roughly $3 million in career earnings.  Did he make a mistake in coming out despite not being drafted?

That all comes down to if an extra year in college would have increased his draft value.  At the NBA level, he was a 45/30 shooter.  I'm not necessarily convinced that he was ever going to be more than a 30% shooter from the longer distance at the NBA level.....it's not like he didn't get a chance to work on that in the G league just like he would have at IU his senior year.  His junior year at IU he was a 35% shooter from deep....I think he was probably close to his college ceiling then.

He could have done the same after another year of being a collegiate star. 

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26 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

He could have done the same after another year of being a collegiate star. 

While risking a career ending injury that would've taken away that possibility. The downside for him staying in college was greater than the upside. The NIL changes that assessment for some players.

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37 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

It really depends.  Let's take a guy like Troy Williams -- left after his junior year, even went undrafted.  Played in the league in bits of seasons from 2016-2019.  Career earnings are $2.9 million in the NBA plus about $240,000 that he will still receive in guaranteed money....so roughly $3 million in career earnings.  Did he make a mistake in coming out despite not being drafted?

That all comes down to if an extra year in college would have increased his draft value.  At the NBA level, he was a 45/30 shooter.  I'm not necessarily convinced that he was ever going to be more than a 30% shooter from the longer distance at the NBA level.....it's not like he didn't get a chance to work on that in the G league just like he would have at IU his senior year.  His junior year at IU he was a 35% shooter from deep....I think he was probably close to his college ceiling then.

Troy didn’t have NIL money to factor in though. The ability to earn 6 figured in college changes the draft calculus a bit. 

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