Point Guard Play: 2021-22

[Uspshoosier 44,338]

3 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

People have been saying this about Phinisee since January of his freshman year. The sad thing for him is that it was the best game he’s played this year and he went 2-8 from the field. 

He was ranked 135th in his class. It’s much more likely to me that he’s played like the fringe top 150 player he was coming out of high school because that’s the level of player he is than it is that he’s suffered from some unknown confidence issue for the better part of 3 seasons. I don’t even really know how it became a ‘confidence’ talking point in the first place other than fans needing an explanation for his poor play. 

He was the 135 ranked player in his class(which top 150 players are suppose to be good college players) that a winning program like Virginia wanted him and offered him a scholarship to run their program.  He turned them down so they went out and got another kid ranked lower then him to run their program who helped Virginia win a National title.    Rob also turned down a scholarship from Holtmann who  some on here thought could do no wrong and was the coach IU should of had.  Rob also turned down a scholarship from hometown team Purdue who wanted him badly.    Sometimes stuff doesn’t work out for recruits but just because he was the 135th player doesn’t mean he wasn’t wanted by programs and expected to help a program to win.   

[RaceToTheTop 23,812]

20 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I didn’t mention those games to counter your argument that they don’t trust him in close games. They don’t seem to trust him at all for whatever reason. I just mentioned those games because he’s had to play in close games and did fine in them despite being thrown in cold. So I just can’t really see that as being the reason why he’s piled up the DNPs. There have been opportunities to play him when we have big leads too but he doesn’t play then either. Woody doesn’t seem to have any interest in developing him. Oh well. 

I would say that +/- isn't a stat that you can rely on too heavily with a sample space of 16 minutes.  I don't have the exact totals, but I know that under Miller, Phinisee was always a pretty good +/- player. 

Simple question for you:  what is the most likely reason that they do not trust him?

 

[Hoosierfan2017 19,915]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

He was the 135 ranked player in his class(which top 150 players are suppose to be good college players) that a winning program like Virginia wanted him and offered him a scholarship to run their program.  He turned them down so they went out and got another kid ranked lower then him to run their program who helped Virginia win a National title.    Rob also turned down a scholarship from Holtmann who  some on here thought could do no wrong and was the coach IU should of had.  Rob also turned down a scholarship from hometown team Purdue who wanted him badly.    Sometimes stuff doesn’t work out for recruits but just because he was the 135th player doesn’t mean he wasn’t wanted by programs and expected to help a program to win.   

I don’t really know how you got any of that from my post, honestly. I never wanted Holtmann. Sure, sometimes recruits outplay their rankings, but I wouldn’t say his career has been abnormal for a player of his ranking. Jordan Hulls was 133rd in his class, he outplayed his ranking. Derek Elston was 139th in his class and he was a bench player. If you’re counting on a point guard ranked out of the top 100 to come in and play 27 mpg like we did the previous three seasons, you’re taking a big gamble. 

[Uspshoosier 44,338]

5 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I don’t really know how you got any of that from my post, honestly. I never wanted Holtmann. Sure, sometimes recruits outplay their rankings, but I wouldn’t say his career has been abnormal for a player of his ranking. Jordan Hulls was 133rd in his class, he outplayed his ranking. Derek Elston was 139th in his class and he was a bench player. If you’re counting on a point guard ranked out of the top 100 to come in and play 27 mpg like we did the previous three seasons, you’re taking a big gamble. 

Programs rely on guards outside the top 100 all the time to play big minutes when they are upper class men 

[Hoosierfan2017 19,915]

8 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I would say that +/- isn't a stat that you can rely on too heavily with a sample space of 16 minutes.  I don't have the exact totals, but I know that under Miller, Phinisee was always a pretty good +/- player. 

Simple question for you:  what is the most likely reason that they do not trust him?

 

Because the staff prioritizes defense and his defense is his weakness. But my problem with that is our defense has been great this season regardless of who has been on the court, including Lander. I want to see him play because I think the difference between him and Phinisee right now is minimal, because I think Lander has a much higher ceiling, and because Lander is in his first year of eligibility. We’ve seen what Rob is. He’s been, quite possibly more so than any player I’ve ever seen, the same player his entire career. After 94 games I see no reason to believe he’s ever going to be anything other than what we’ve seen. So I’d rather roll with Lander. 

[Stuhoo 75,798]

1 minute ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Because the staff prioritizes defense and his defense is his weakness. But my problem with that is our defense has been great this season regardless of who has been on the court, including Lander. I want to see him play because I think the difference between him and Phinisee right now is minimal, because I think Lander has a much higher ceiling, and because Lander is in his first year of eligibility. We’ve seen what Rob is. He’s been, quite possibly more so than any player I’ve ever seen, the same player his entire career. After 94 games I see no reason to believe he’s ever going to be anything other than what we’ve seen. So I’d rather roll with Lander. 

^^That’s the best summary of the argument for Lander.^^

Im too blinded by my unreasonable hope for Phinisee (yes, even after three excruciating years) to agree, but you said it really well.

 

[Uspshoosier 44,338]

Crazy how things work out but here is an article from scout on Robs commitment 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2722950-4-star-pg-robert-phinisee-commits-to-indiana-over-osu-virginia-and-more

[Hoosierfan2017 19,915]

15 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Programs rely on guards outside the top 100 all the time to play big minutes when they are upper class men 

Certainly. We’re relying on one right now in Xavier Johnson. But I never said that they don’t. I said that it’s more likely that Rob has played like his high school ranking than it is that he’s suffered from a mystery confidence issue for 3+ seasons. Would you say that his career has been abnormal for a player of his ranking? Because it doesn’t seem like it has been to me. He had a great start to his college career that led us to have high hopes for his career, with the thought process of “he’s this good as a freshman, imagine how much he’ll improve over his career,” then he got a concussion, regressed, and never played that way again. Is that a coincidence? Did the concussion mess him up? Who knows. But his career hasn’t been abnormal to me. 

[8bucks 6,144]

Because the staff prioritizes defense and his defense is his weakness. But my problem with that is our defense has been great this season regardless of who has been on the court, including Lander. I want to see him play because I think the difference between him and Phinisee right now is minimal, because I think Lander has a much higher ceiling, and because Lander is in his first year of eligibility. We’ve seen what Rob is. He’s been, quite possibly more so than any player I’ve ever seen, the same player his entire career. After 94 games I see no reason to believe he’s ever going to be anything other than what we’ve seen. So I’d rather roll with Lander. 

So when things like this happen and what we see does not make a lot of sense we then have to assume it is what we do not see. Maybe they see Rob putting in time and Lander does not. Maybe while we see Lander with a pass around the key to an open 3 pt shot maybe we miss that the ball was supposed to go to the paint. Maybe Lander doesn’t do what the coaches ask him to do.

I don’t give a free pass to Woody on this but I understand he is taking a risk on losing the kid. He may or may not listen to his staff. We will know more down the road if they hang around. For now, he owns the risk and I will assume he is basing it on things we don’t see. Ultimately it is his job on the line.


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[Uspshoosier 44,338]

10 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Certainly. We’re relying on one right now in Xavier Johnson. But I never said that they don’t. I said that it’s more likely that Rob has played like his high school ranking than it is that he’s suffered from a mystery confidence issue for 3+ seasons. Would you say that his career has been abnormal for a player of his ranking? Because it doesn’t seem like it has been to me.

Yes I would say it has gone abnormal from his high school ranking.  Because his high school ranking suggests he should of been a valuable piece and contributor and help a team win many games.  These are not my words those are the words of the evaluators that gave him that ranking.   I went down a rabbit hole and read old articles on his commitment.  One evaluator compared him to Frank Mason.  
He has not lived up to what scouts and myself thought he would be.  Just because he was evaluated in the 130 for some doesn’t mean he wasn’t expected to be good and help IU 

[RaceToTheTop 23,812]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Certainly. We’re relying on one right now in Xavier Johnson. But I never said that they don’t. I said that it’s more likely that Rob has played like his high school ranking than it is that he’s suffered from a mystery confidence issue for 3+ seasons. Would you say that his career has been abnormal for a player of his ranking? Because it doesn’t seem like it has been to me.

It's a good question that I don't know the answer to.  While certainly not all telling,  I went in and looked at point guards around his rating in his class to compare.

Jordan McCabe, West Virginia was ranked two point guard spots ahead of him.  Played three years at West Virginia and is at UNLV now.  Definitely has had a worse career than Phin.  16 mpg, 33% shooter (29% from three), 2.2 assists per game. 

Tyler Harris, Memphis was ranked one point guard spots ahead of him.  He played at Memphis for two years, transferred to Iowa State, then transferred back to Memphis this year.  4 year totals:  22 minutes per game, 9 points, 1.2 assists.  Shooting very Phin like -- 38%, 34% from three.  I actually think Phin has been a marginally slightly better player than Harris.

Keyshawn Embrey-Simpson, ranked one spot below Phin.  One year at Arkansas, three years at Tulsa.  Career 19 mpg, 5.2 points, 0.9 assists, shot 37%.

Jamel Bienemy, two spots below Phin. Two years at Oklahoma, two at UTEP.  Career:  30 mpg, 6.7 points/game, 3.3 assists, 38% shooter, 32% from three.

Phinisee's numbers:  25 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 3 assists/game, 35%/29%.  So his numbers are in line with the four that were ranked around him.

But I would also float this out:  what is more predictive to a player's career trajectory is their freshman year of college than their incoming ranking.  Even if you count this year as Lander's freshman year, it's most certainly is not the one of a four or five star player.

Before you cite examples of player's who showed big improvements from freshman year on -- that is obviously true.  But typically there a player -- regardless of high school rating -- is showing reason to believe that they will be a big time player in a shorter time than Lander has.

 

[RaceToTheTop 23,812]

16 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yes I would say it has gone abnormal from his high school ranking.  Because his high school ranking suggests he should of been a valuable piece and contributor and help a team win many games.  These are not my words those are the words of the evaluators that gave him that ranking.   I went down a rabbit hole and read old articles on his commitment.  One evaluator compared him to Frank Mason.  
He has not lived up to what scouts and myself thought he would be.  Just because he was evaluated in the 130 for some doesn’t mean he wasn’t expected to be good and help IU 

I would say he most definitely has been a worse shooter and play creator than I thought he would be.  But I also would not have guessed he would be the defender he is.

[Uspshoosier 44,338]

15 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I would say he most definitely has been a worse shooter and play creator than I thought he would be.  But I also would not have guessed he would be the defender he is.

You can go further down the rankings list to find other pg guards that are producing.  Just look at the number of players not just pg around that area and even past the 200s that produce.   Kendrick Davis is probably one of the best unknown pg this year. Transferred from TCU to SMU.   You won’t find the stats of the 172 ranked kid and 29th ranked pg of that class the last 2 years because he is playing in the NBA for the Kings 

[Demo 17,512]

48 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

 

Simple question for you:  what is the most likely reason that they do not trust him?

 

It’s not even the bad D. If the issue is that he’s really competing but just getting physically handled or his footwork needs to get better or he’s struggling to learn some of their rotations, that’d be 1 thing. But, in the St John’s game, there were 2 obvious elements of the defensive of the game plan that he just didn’t execute. 1) Smith is incredibly right hand dominant and looking to get downhill. If he got to his right hand he’d try to drive it, if he went left he just rotated the ball. Every other guy who played him was quartering to his right hand and playing over ball screens to negate his angle. Lander played him straight up and got beat downhill once for a layup, once for a foul. 2) Pinzon is a catch and shoot guy. He doesn’t hurt you any other way. You stay in his pocket. That’s it. Doesn’t get simpler. And Lander dropped him twice. Once they threw him a bad pass and the other he made.a clean 3. That’s either not internalizing the game plan or putting no effort into executing it. Either way, sorry, you don’t get to play. Those are just too simple to F up. And it’s not unreasonable to assume his practice habits are similar. It’s a shame. I think Lander has a niche role. Personally, I thought St John’s was the best offensive game Lander’s played at IU. He maintained his composure under their pressure. He did not get sped up at all. He kept the ball moving.Thought he did a solid job. But everyone on that team knows who’s prepared and who’s not. And if you want to build a culture lack of preparation doesn’t get rewarded. 
Sorry that went on for a minute.

[Hoosierfan2017 19,915]

20 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yes I would say it has gone abnormal from his high school ranking.  Because his high school ranking suggests he should of been a valuable piece and contributor and help a team win many games.  These are not my words those are the words of the evaluators that gave him that ranking.   I went down a rabbit hole and read old articles on his commitment.  One evaluator compared him to Frank Mason.  
He has not lived up to what scouts and myself thought he would be.  Just because he was evaluated in the 130 for some doesn’t mean he wasn’t expected to be good and help IU 

The scouts were also concerned about his size hurting him on the defensive end, but that’s been his strength in college. The scouts may have expected him to be good and help IU, but they still ranked him outside of the top 100, suggesting to me that they weren’t completely sold on him. 

Rob came in and started from day 1, playing 27 mpg as a freshman. He was asked to do too much from the beginning. Who knows, maybe in a different setting he would have progressed differently. According to the numbers @brumdog45 posted, his career stats are pretty in line with other guards ranked around him in his class. Rankings aren’t the end all be all for a host of reasons, but on average they’re a good barometer. I’m disappointed by his career because I had high hopes after his first month or so, but I’m just not shocked by it the way I was by a guy like Curtis Jones, for example.

[Uspshoosier 44,338]

1 minute ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The scouts were also concerned about his size hurting him on the defensive end, but that’s been his strength in college. The scouts may have expected him to be good and help IU, but they still ranked him outside of the top 100, suggesting to me that they weren’t completely sold on him. 

Rob came in and started from day 1, playing 27 mpg as a freshman. He was asked to do too much from the beginning. Who knows, maybe in a different setting he would have progressed differently. According to the numbers @brumdog45 posted, his career stats are pretty in line with other guards ranked around him in his class. Rankings aren’t the end all be all for a host of reasons, but on average they’re a good barometer. I’m disappointed by his career because I had high hopes after his first month or so, but I’m just not shocked by it the way I was by a guy like Curtis Jones, for example.

That’s where we differ.   In your opinion it seems top 100 is the cut off for being considered a contributing prospect over a career.  There is a reason rivals went to 150 for their evaluations and why 4 stars expand past 100  other services in my opinion.  I expect and on these scouts write ups of players they expect players in those ranges over 100 to eventually be contributing pieces to winning programs.  Maybe not year 1 or 2 but at some point they are expected to help.    The examples are all over college basketball. 

[RaceToTheTop 23,812]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

You can go further down the rankings list to find other pg guards that are producing.  Just look at the number of players not just pg around that area and even past the 200s that produce.   Kendrick Davis is probably one of the best unknown pg this year. Transferred from TCU to SMU.   You won’t find the stats of the 172 ranked kid and 29th ranked pg of that class the last 2 years because he is playing in the NBA for the Kings 

Absolutely.  Some guys are going to play higher than their rank, some lower -- either because they really are better/worse than their rank or because they develop/don't develop.  I was just comparing guys ranked immediately around him for comparison to see what was there, and in the case of Phin, the four players closest to him were pretty much the exact same value.  

But in terms of how a player projects, I would argue that their freshman year that the best predictor is rank -- after that, it is previous college performance.  Some will improve more/less than others, but after a year and a half a five star player's rating is pretty irrelevant unless he produces.

[RaceToTheTop 23,812]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

You can go further down the rankings list to find other pg guards that are producing.  Just look at the number of players not just pg around that area and even past the 200s that produce.   Kendrick Davis is probably one of the best unknown pg this year. Transferred from TCU to SMU.   You won’t find the stats of the 172 ranked kid and 29th ranked pg of that class the last 2 years because he is playing in the NBA for the Kings 

FWIW, we have two players in our starting lineup that were ranked in the 200s as prospects -- X at 247 and Parker Stewart at 232.  Both had decent showings as freshman.

Going in to their sophomore years, I contend their play as freshman would indicate they were better than their rating.  I think that has shown to be true.

[Chris007 42,324]

10 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

 

He is sitting in every basketball meeting, attending every practice and game his health will allow. His goal is to be the next AD at Butler or another school. Both can be true. I'm 100% sure he is giving his input when asked. I'm sure he is having basketball conversations with coaches 1 on 1 and players. I'm sorry if I gave the impression he was only doing AD work. He is only the AD for basketball, he doesn't handle any other sports. 

[Hoosierfan2017 19,915]

7 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

That’s where we differ.   In your opinion it seems top 100 is the cut off for being considered a contributing prospect over a career.  There is a reason rivals went to 150 for their evaluations and why 4 stars expand past 100  other services in my opinion.  I expect and on these scouts write ups of players they expect players in those ranges over 100 to eventually be contributing pieces to winning programs.  Maybe not year 1 or 2 but at some point they are expected to help.    The examples are all over college basketball. 

Phinisee has been a contributing player during his career though, no? He hasn’t been what we’ve hoped for, but he’s had some moments and been a good defender. Part of the problem I think is that he’s been asked to do too much on some bad IU teams during his career. The 15-20 minutes off the bench he’s been playing this year is probably what his role should’ve been all along, but we’ve lacked point guards so he was our lead pg from day one.

I think it’s a big reason why I’m so frustrated with him as a player. We’ve lost so many games over the past three years because of bad guard play, and he’s been the lead guard. He’s a backup who’s been asked to be the starter for too long. So now that he’s finally a back up I’m just over him as a player because of the previous three years. 

It really just comes down to one’s expectations for a player ranked like him. Me personally, I don’t really expect them to become studs, so when they do I’m pleasantly surprised.