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Class of '66 Old Fart

(2024) - SF Bryson Tucker to INDIANA

By Class of '66 Old Fart, in Indiana Men's Basketball

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Home Jersey    5,316

Home Jersey
Posted
5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

When I create preseason rosters for my PC Stellar game, I use the six most similar players (in size, rank, and position) to an incoming freshman to get an estimation of what they would be projected to do as a freshman.

For Bryson Tucker, the most most similar comparisons from the last three recruit classes are Caleb Foster, Duke;  Terrance Arceneaux, Houston;  Tre White, USC;  Matthew Cleveland, Florida State;  Johnny Furphy, Kansas;  and Jaylon Tyson, Texas.  Four of those players ended up playing between 24 and 27 minutes per game their freshman year to the school they committed to; one played 14 minutes per game and the other (Tyson) appeared in only 8 games, playing 7 minutes per game in those contests.  Funny thing is that Tyson, now two years later, averaged almost 20 points per game (no longer at Texas, though....has transferred twice).

Based on the comparisons, Tucker's projection based on his size/position/ranking -- taking the averages for the six above, would be:

  • 20.5 minutes per game
  • 6 field goal attempts per game, shooting 44.5%
  • 1.9 of those attempts would be from three, shooting 31.5%
  • 1.9 free throws per game, hitting 65.1%
  • 3.4 rebounds per game
  • 1.1 assists per game
  • 0.6 steals and 0.3 blocks per game
  • 0.9 turnovers per game
  • 7.2 points per game

IMO, the volume of shots is lower than I would have thought but considering the comp players included three very talented teams like Duke, Houston, and Kansas, my gut says that the volume of shots he would have at IU would be greater than the averages above.

Let's say his shot per minute rate was equal to what another McD boy, Mgbako, was at IU last year.  If that were the case, his numbers would be:

20.5 minutes  ;   shooting 44.5/31.5/65.1, 3.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 7.7 shots per game (2.4 from three), 1.9 free throws, 8.8 ppg

Those projections seem pretty spot on with what I'd expect. Thanks for sharing, cool formula... I'll have to check out PC Stellar some time

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RaceToTheTop    23,604

RaceToTheTop
Posted
On 4/4/2024 at 8:03 PM, Home Jersey said:

Those projections seem pretty spot on with what I'd expect. Thanks for sharing, cool formula... I'll have to check out PC Stellar some time

FWIW, the 6 best comps for Liam McNeeley in the last three years project him to put up the numbers below in his freshman year:

  • 25.9 minutes/game
  • 7.9 shots, 43.8 fg %
  • 3.2 of the shots are threes, 35.3% 
  • 2.7 ft, 76.7% 
  • 4.7 rebounds
  • 1.4 assists
  • 1.1 steals
  • 0.5 blocks
  • 1.2 turonovers
  • 10.1 points/game

 

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Home Jersey    5,316

Home Jersey
Posted
5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW, the 6 best comps for Liam McNeeley in the last three years project him to put up the numbers below in his freshman year:

  • 25.9 minutes/game
  • 7.9 shots, 43.8 fg %
  • 3.2 of the shots are threes, 35.3% 
  • 2.7 ft, 76.7% 
  • 4.7 rebounds
  • 1.4 assists
  • 1.1 steals
  • 0.5 blocks
  • 1.2 turonovers
  • 10.1 points/game

Wish him well (unless he's playing against us). 

I think we are going to be VERY pleased with Bryson Tucker next year.

Not going to speculate on the specifics of his role for now. But I absolutely look forward to watching him play here. 

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btownqb    8,253

btownqb
Posted
15 minutes ago, Demo said:

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/iu-basketball-recruiting-qa-with-the-father-of-5-star-2024-commit-bryson-tucker/
 

Really good Schumann interview with Tucker’s dad.

Side note: worked out with Gabe Cupps, because of course he did.

Thank you for posting this. I thought there were some serious quotes in there that I was a fan of... 

"The thing with Bryson is most people haven’t seen the best version of him"

"It was a better visit than most of the other schools.  It was more laid out.  It was a lot more straightforward, and the vision was there."

"I’ll be 55 years old this month, and anyone who played basketball, or anyone who was into basketball, knew who Mike Woodson was."

"I was developing Bryson with a pro-type skill set.  It doesn’t mean that he was going to be a one-and-done or anything like that, but I already had certain things already mapped out, including certain types of coaches.  Indiana (with Mike Woodson) was one of those schools with one of those particular coaches"

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WayneFleekHoosier    46,746

WayneFleekHoosier
Posted
30 minutes ago, Demo said:

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/iu-basketball-recruiting-qa-with-the-father-of-5-star-2024-commit-bryson-tucker/
 

Really good Schumann interview with Tucker’s dad.

Side note: worked out with Gabe Cupps, because of course he did.

I've always wondered this.  This was during the office visit, correct?  What are the rules for recruits playing with the team during an official visit?

 

Also, I looks like Gallo and Tucker are likely our 6-7 guys if the transfer portal goes as expected.  I don't think we can blame talent if next season misses the mark.  Big season ahead!

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8bucks    6,119

8bucks
Posted
22 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Thank you for posting this. I thought there were some serious quotes in there that I was a fan of... 

"The thing with Bryson is most people haven’t seen the best version of him"

"It was a better visit than most of the other schools.  It was more laid out.  It was a lot more straightforward, and the vision was there."

"I’ll be 55 years old this month, and anyone who played basketball, or anyone who was into basketball, knew who Mike Woodson was."

"I was developing Bryson with a pro-type skill set.  It doesn’t mean that he was going to be a one-and-done or anything like that, but I already had certain things already mapped out, including certain types of coaches.  Indiana (with Mike Woodson) was one of those schools with one of those particular coaches"

We heard a lot of these same comments on Woody and how the preparation for the visit was better than other schools on prior recruiting wins but I think the noise around the program has many of us wondering which is true. I remember guys saying they were not promised anything, that we had tape ready to show them what to expect and what to work on, different but better preparation than kids saw at other schools.  Now we as a fan base seem convinced that this guy has to start or no way he is coming if he is not a starter.  I don't claim to know which is true but it is good to see these comments from Bryson's dad.

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btownqb    8,253

btownqb
Posted

I can't think of a more "under the radar" Top 20-25 kid that we have signed.... 

Using MCDAA's that we have signed since 2011---- (I counted Kel'el's FR at Ore, which was BY far the worst MCDAA FR season in the grouping)... 

Zeller, Yogi, Vonleh, Blackmon, Bryant, Langford, TJD, Ware, MM (pretty freaking good list, btw)

Their avgs came out to be-- 12p 6r 2a -- I understand that data really has nothing to do with Tucker, but even 8-9ppg avg out of Tucker with what else we have... could be huge! 

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str8baller    4,756

str8baller
Posted
16 minutes ago, btownqb said:

I can't think of a more "under the radar" Top 20-25 kid that we have signed.... 

Using MCDAA's that we have signed since 2011---- (I counted Kel'el's FR at Ore, which was BY far the worst MCDAA FR season in the grouping)... 

Zeller, Yogi, Vonleh, Blackmon, Bryant, Langford, TJD, Ware, MM (pretty freaking good list, btw)

Their avgs came out to be-- 12p 6r 2a -- I understand that data really has nothing to do with Tucker, but even 8-9ppg avg out of Tucker with what else we have... could be huge! 

I think every one of those guys started as a frosh—which I’d agree is a good list. Seems like it would be near impossible for him to start next year, so if he gets to 8-9ppg off the bench I would consider that a very successful freshman year. 

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btownqb    8,253

btownqb
Posted
6 minutes ago, str8baller said:

I think every one of those guys started as a frosh—which I’d agree is a good list. Seems like it would be near impossible for him to start next year, so if he gets to 8-9ppg off the bench I would consider that a very successful freshman year. 

exactly 

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