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Stuhoo

IUBB Record and Player Predictions for 2020-2021

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Thanks to OF, we have a general sense of the 30 (for now) regular season scheduled games IU will play:

  • Nov. 10          NJIT
  • Nov. 13          Western Michigan
  • Nov. 23-25 – Maui (three games)
  • Nov. 30/Dec. 1/2 – Big Ten/ACC
  • Dec. 4/5/6 – Big Ten 1
  • Dec. 8/9/10 – Big Ten 2
  • Dec. 12 – vs. TBD 3
  • Dec. 19 – vs. Butler (Indianapolis)
  • Dec. 22 – vs. Nebraska-Omaha
  • Dec. 29 – vs. Robert Morris
  • Jan. – Mar. – Big Ten 3-20

So ... have at it! Ten non-conference games and 20 conference games.

Let's hear:

  1. Non-conference record.
  2. Conference record.
  3. B1G place finish.
  4. Biggest positive surprise player(s)
  5. Most disappointing player(s)
  6. Any other predictions of substance.

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21 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Poor form Stuhoo..

I believe THE delivery man just posted a link to an article that the max number of games is capped at 27 this season.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

 

Roger that. When USPS delivers I need to open the mail!

Because we're not starting until November 25th, I would assume that NJIT and Western Michigan are off the books. Not sure which other one will be deleted--maybe the Dec 12th 'TBD'?

So, all questions remain the same, with game numbers edited:

So ... have at it! Seven non-conference games and 20 conference games.

Let's hear:

  1. Non-conference record.
  2. Conference record.
  3. B1G place finish.
  4. Biggest positive surprise player(s)
  5. Most disappointing player(s)
  6. Any other predictions of substance.

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Non-conference record: 5-2

Conference Record: 12-8

BIG Finish: 5th

Surprise Player: Rob Phinisee. He is healthy, experienced, and now has a more talented player ready to take his minutes. I think he rises to the occasion and makes us remember why we believed he was the future PG of this program. 

Disappointing Player: *Could also be Rob but I sure hope not. I will go with Al. I like Al, but I feel like he is what he is and for this program to take the next step it needs more talent out of its starting senior guards.  he is not able to take the game over which is a necessity from  those top guards you see around the country that lead teams on deep NCAA runs. 

Other Predictions: We will be glad Justin Smith left. 

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29 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

Non-conference record: 5-2

Conference Record: 12-8

BIG Finish: 5th

Surprise Player: Rob Phinisee. He is healthy, experienced, and now has a more talented player ready to take his minutes. I think he rises to the occasion and makes us remember why we believed he was the future PG of this program. 

Disappointing Player: *Could also be Rob but I sure hope not. I will go with Al. I like Al, but I feel like he is what he is and for this program to take the next step it needs more talent out of its starting senior guards.  he is not able to take the game over which is a necessity from  those top guards you see around the country that lead teams on deep NCAA runs. 

Other Predictions: We will be glad Justin Smith left. 

I think we get to 13 wins in conference but I couldn’t have said anything else any better.

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Only two pre-conference cupcakes. 3-2 in the other five puts us at 5-2 non-con.

Add 13-7 conference for a 4th place finish, 18-9 overall--about a six seed in the NCAA tourney.

Best surprises?

  1. Race Thompson. He gets over 20 minutes per game, starts hitting more threes, and is always on the court in crunch time.
  2. TJD. If you're watching the NBA playoffs, welcome to the collegiate version of Bam Adebayo. Super quick near the rim AND reliably good from 17 feet. Last year the sky was the limit. This year? The sky.

Disappointments?

  1. The three non-Lander freshmen. Except for the cupcakes they don't get off the bench all that much.
  2. Jerome. I'm probably in the minority here, but because of their ability to play error-free defense in crunch time Archie goes with three of the four excellent guards, TJD, and Race.

Other prediction: We will miss Justin Smith on the defensive end a little more than we'd like to admit, but the team chemistry will be outstanding. TJD will emerge as the true team leader.

 

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1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

Only two pre-conference cupcakes. 3-2 in the other five puts us at 5-2 non-con.

Add 13-7 conference for a 4th place finish, 18-9 overall--about a six seed in the NCAA tourney.

Best surprises?

  1. Race Thompson. He gets over 20 minutes per game, starts hitting more threes, and is always on the court in crunch time.
  2. TJD. If you're watching the NBA playoffs, welcome to the collegiate version of Bam Adebayo. Super quick near the rim AND reliably good from 17 feet. Last year the sky was the limit. This year? The sky.

Disappointments?

  1. The three non-Lander freshmen. Except for the cupcakes they don't get off the bench all that much.
  2. Jerome. I'm probably in the minority here, but because of their ability to play error-free defense in crunch time Archie goes with three of the four excellent guards, TJD, and Race.

 

I really hope Race stays healthy because I feel like you are spot on if that happens. I feel like this team would have won a few more games each of the past two years if injuries did not derail his development. 

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1. Non-conference record: 5-2

2.  Conference record: 11-9

3. Big Ten finish: 6th place

4. Biggest positive surprise player: Jerome Hunter

5.  Biggest disappointment player: Rob Phinisee (Rob has trouble adjusting to playing with Kristian Lander and ends up as his back-up)

6. Other predictions: Justin Smith is top scorer for Arkansas; IU qualifies for the NCAA tournament.

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1 minute ago, Honkyman said:

 

5.  Biggest disappointment player: Rob Phinisee (Rob has trouble adjusting to playing with Kristian Lander and ends up as his back-up)

 

Sadly, I could see that. Interesting that so far, everyone is citing Rob as a wild-card for plus or minus. Him and Lander fitting together will be worth watching.

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5 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Let's hear:

  1. Non-conference record.
  2. Conference record.
  3. B1G place finish.
  4. Biggest positive surprise player(s)
  5. Most disappointing player(s)
  6. Any other predictions of substance.

 

Oh man I love these threads.  Maybe the best part is that some things will happen this year that none of us will predict here.  

1.  5-2.  I'd expect a tough win or two, and a tough loss or two.  Lots of moving pieces here, and waiting for the precocious new PG to get into his groove.  

2.  13-7.  I started at 12-8, and then decided to be a fan instead.  We're due.  We have got some players now, you guys.  Assuming a couple new dependable stars emerge, we should be able to field a dangerous team.  I expect the top of the conference to beat up on each other as always, and a few of the bottom teams to rack up a ton of losses.  For the love, can Arch get the Purdue monkey off his back.  

3.  Uhh 4th.  So ready for that not to be an optimistic projection.

4.  Biggest positive surprise player.  The thing is TJD could become a nation-wide star and it wouldn't be fair to call him a surprise.  He was sensational last year for a freshman, and his trajectory suggests he'll be even better.  Considering the fanfare that greeted Romeo, it's bizarre the modest expectations we have for young Khristian.  But I mostly agree, we're keeping it reasonable here.  I expect him to be a major talent upgrade, but not necessarily an immediate star.  So who can qualify as a surprise star?  Again, going with the emotional pick of Jerome Hunter.  He was Archie's first major get, he showed faith in coming to the program.  He has the chops to be a star.  He's been through a lot, but hasn't seen his day in the sun yet.  Justin's departure really opens up the minutes.  After Jerome, I'll get Armaan in there.  There's a higher ceiling there than the guards that have been getting minutes for us the past few years.  Higher ceiling than Rob, Al, Devonte.  He's somewhat the forgotten man right now, but don't be surprised if he becomes a real glue guy that turns out some big plays.

5.  Biggest disappointment.  Again, interesting to see Rob coming up here.  I hate to say it, but his sophomore campaign was pretty so-so, and so I couldn't call a bad junior year a surprise disappointment.  Also, I don't necessarily see it. He said recently he's the healthiest he's ever been.  The dude is a very good on-ball defender, and he now has 2 years of major minutes guarding the B1G's starting PGs.  I'm going with Leal/Galloway.  Not that they won't play well, just that our down-home Indiana boys won't see the floor much.  There are just too many wings in front of them, so these guys can sit and marinate.  

6. A hot take.  I've come to trust the things Archie says in his interviews.  When we were all expecting Clifton Moore to be a lottery pick, Archie put that to rest before we saw him play, we just didn't want to listen.  When Archie tells us before a season that we're a team that will live on 2s and free throws, that is exactly what happens.  And so when Archie sneaks in that he expects small ball line-ups with Geronimo at the 4, I'm going to say that Geronimo has separated himself somewhat.  Prediction:  Geronimo plays 6th most minutes on the team, but his efficiency numbers suggest he's top 3.  

7.  Extra pickles.  Archie is enjoying overwhelming approval and support amongst underwhelming results.  I'm 100% behind him as well.  But, objectively, he's shepherded us through a very rough stretch.  I think we all trust him, though.  We have got some major pieces, here.  I'm hoping to see some individual skillsets improve, more utilization of the simple trickery that flat out works.  Better use of screens.  Better transition play with Lander.  Fewer ill-advised shots (Green, Smith...).  Simply better shooting percentages.  Better use of the deep bench.  You add this stuff up, mix in some luck, and it's time for this program to enjoy some success.  I think there are enough anecdotes out there for us to believe the locker room will be vastly improved.  I can see this team buying in and getting on a roll.  

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To cite a key from Strom's post--if Jordan Geronimo plays the sixth most minutes on the team, we will be very, very good indeed.  For Strom to be right who among the top six listed plays less than Jordan? Race maybe? Can't see it being one of the top three guards.

I expect the minutes to be with (from most to least):

  1. TJD
  2. Al
  3. Rob
  4. Kristian
  5. Race
  6. Jerome
  7. Armaan
  8. Joey
  9. Jordan
  10. Anthony
  11. Trey

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Will we complete the season as anticipated? Sadly, I don’t expect it. Restrictions are outrageous. Good luck to all the coaches, players, and teams.

NonCon 5-2

B1G 12-8

BiG finish 6-8th

Positive player surprise- Jerome Hunter. I hope he realizes he can be more than a spot up 3 point shooter. He had a lot of offensive talent. He needs to score on all 3 levels.

Biggest disappointment- I will go with Brunk. Great guy and team player. Hope I’m wrong but he doesn’t match up well with more athletic bigs. We are better with TJD at the 5.

Hot take-we lose to Providence in game 1 of the Maui/North Carolina Invitational.

Hot take- our offense still looks disjointed. And Archie uses too big of a rotation.

After going through this process I realize I’m not very optimistic about our team (despite liking a lot of the players) and Archie, YET. This team could be really good, but Archie is going to need to prove it. I’m beyond ready to have a team where I can be confident and cocky about my expectations.







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I'll give this a shot so I can look back at it in the spring and remind myself how little I actually know...

Non-conference Record: I'll say 5-2. That shouldn't be an optimistic prediction... so why does a part of me feel that it is? We've got enough talent/experience on the team to say that we're at least good enough to go 5-2. But the Maui Invitational has at least 5-6 teams who are all NCAA tournament-caliber and I have a feeling we'll be matched with Virginia for the ACC game which scares me.

Conference Record: 11-9. It would have really helped Archie if this was a down year for the conference and more guys would've went pro from Iowa and Illinois. Instead, there are a lot of pretty good teams in the conference. IU is one of them. But I see teams beating up on each other again this season. I'll guess the winner may only have something like a 14-6 record.

Conference Finish: Around 7th. But I see everyone being bunched up together like last year. There could be a tie for second place with a 13-7 record and a tie for 10th place with a 9-11 record. I see the Hoosiers being lumped right in the middle of it.

Biggest Positive Surprise Player: Khristian Lander. Everyone is talking about how he's still very young and that's true. They say he's needs more work in the weight room and that's true. But he's probably the second most-talented basketball player on the team. Sometimes you're either a good basketball player or you aren't. And when you're a good player you can kinda toss the height/weight/age aside and just play. He's a 5-star for a reason. I think you'll see that out of Lander and he'll be our clear #2 option and floor leader by the end of the year. Not a one-and-done type of season but maybe something like 11 PPG and 4 APG.

Not as Confident in the Advancement of These Players: Rob Phinisee and Jerome Hunter. And boy I hope I am dead wrong on this because I really like both players. They've both had injuries to deal with so I feel bad for them. It's just that for every good game that I see of Phinisee, I see three or four games where he seems pedestrian and not much of a factor. His shooting percentages have been below average and his A/T ratio is nothing overly special. With Hunter... he seemed so one-dimensional last year as a spot-up shooter. And he wasn't GREAT at that... just solid. Can he handle the ball? Can he defend well? Can he be more of a factor in the paint? These are all questions that were answered "no" last season. Again, I like both Phinisee and Hunter and hope that full health allows them to realize their full potential. But a fair amount is being expected from these two guys and they have a ways to go to live up to some of the expectations placed upon them. I'm not confident in major statistical gains from either of them. That being said... I'm not counting them out!

Random Thoughts:  - I'm concerned that anything less than a 2-1 record in Maui/Asheville will upset a lot of fans who will become more vocal asking "Is Archie the right man for the job?" The funny thing is... I could see us going 3-0 and winning the thing. But I can't say I'd be absolutely shocked if we didn't win a game down there.

- I'm thinking (hoping) this may be the year where our defense takes a leap forward and we're Top 20 in that category. We've got a number of players who should be pretty familiar with the pack-line by now. If we aren't a Top 20 defense by this season, I think it's fair to ask if we'll ever be one under Archie.

- If it wasn't for Garza and Dosunmu, I'd think TJD would have a shot at Big Ten Player of the Year. I believe we're gonna see something like a 17/9 season out of him with good defense. Unfortunately, those other two guys (particularly Garza) have received so much preseason hype that they would have to really struggle to not win it.

- Our offense will probably be rated higher, but as Wayne said above I still see it being a bit clunky, stagnant and generally unspectacular. It always worries me anytime a coach says they are changing their offense in the off-season. Kinda makes me feel like they are unsure of what to do. I think our shooting will only be marginally improved. Thus, how successful we'll become will probably be determined by our defense.

- I think the writing will be on the wall at the end of the year. And by that, I mean that I think we'll know who we are with Archie as the head coach at IU. I think it will be apparent that he'll be the head coach for quite some time or that his days are numbered. I'll leave that statement in a bit of ambiguity...

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I'll give this a shot so I can look back at it in the spring and remind myself how little I actually know...
Non-conference Record: I'll say 5-2. That shouldn't be an optimistic prediction... so why does a part of me feel that it is? We've got enough talent/experience on the team to say that we're at least good enough to go 5-2. But the Maui Invitational has at least 5-6 teams who are all NCAA tournament-caliber and I have a feeling we'll be matched with Virginia for the ACC game which scares me.
Conference Record: 11-9. It would have really helped Archie if this was a down year for the conference and more guys would've went pro from Iowa and Illinois. Instead, there are a lot of pretty good teams in the conference. IU is one of them. But I see teams beating up on each other again this season. I'll guess the winner may only have something like a 14-6 record.
Conference Finish: Around 7th. But I see everyone being bunched up together like last year. There could be a tie for second place with a 13-7 record and a tie for 10th place with a 9-11 record. I see the Hoosiers being lumped right in the middle of it.
Biggest Positive Surprise Player: Khristian Lander. Everyone is talking about how he's still very young and that's true. They say he's needs more work in the weight room and that's true. But he's probably the second most-talented basketball player on the team. Sometimes you're either a good basketball player or you aren't. And when you're a good player you can kinda toss the height/weight/age aside and just play. He's a 5-star for a reason. I think you'll see that out of Lander and he'll be our clear #2 option and floor leader by the end of the year. Not a one-and-done type of season but maybe something like 11 PPG and 4 APG.
Not as Confident in the Advancement of These Players: Rob Phinisee and Jerome Hunter. And boy I hope I am dead wrong on this because I really like both players. They've both had injuries to deal with so I feel bad for them. It's just that for every good game that I see of Phinisee, I see three or four games where he seems pedestrian and not much of a factor. His shooting percentages have been below average and his A/T ratio is nothing overly special. With Hunter... he seemed so one-dimensional last year as a spot-up shooter. And he wasn't GREAT at that... just solid. Can he handle the ball? Can he defend well? Can he be more of a factor in the paint? These are all questions that were answered "no" last season. Again, I like both Phinisee and Hunter and hope that full health allows them to realize their full potential. But a fair amount is being expected from these two guys and they have a ways to go to live up to some of the expectations placed upon them. I'm not confident in major statistical gains from either of them. That being said... I'm not counting them out!
Random Thoughts:  - I'm concerned that anything less than a 2-1 record in Maui/Asheville will upset a lot of fans who will become more vocal asking "Is Archie the right man for the job?" The funny thing is... I could see us going 3-0 and winning the thing. But I can't say I'd be absolutely shocked if we didn't win a game down there.
- I'm thinking (hoping) this may be the year where our defense takes a leap forward and we're Top 20 in that category. We've got a number of players who should be pretty familiar with the pack-line by now. If we aren't a Top 20 defense by this season, I think it's fair to ask if we'll ever be one under Archie.
- If it wasn't for Garza and Dosunmu, I'd think TJD would have a shot at Big Ten Player of the Year. I believe we're gonna see something like a 17/9 season out of him with good defense. Unfortunately, those other two guys (particularly Garza) have received so much preseason hype that they would have to really struggle to not win it.
- Our offense will probably be rated higher, but as Wayne said above I still see it being a bit clunky, stagnant and generally unspectacular. It always worries me anytime a coach says they are changing their offense in the off-season. Kinda makes me feel like they are unsure of what to do. I think our shooting will only be marginally improved. Thus, how successful we'll become will probably be determined by our defense.
- I think the writing will be on the wall at the end of the year. And by that, I mean that I think we'll know who we are with Archie as the head coach at IU. I think it will be apparent that he'll be the head coach for quite some time or that his days are numbered. I'll leave that statement in a bit of ambiguity...


Pretty much sums up my thoughts and reservations. We need a player or 2 to step up as an alpha, dominant force with TJD. Fully agree, the B1G will be incredible this year. I hate seeing Illinois jump us in expectations seemingly so easily and quickly. The B1G is gonna be a gauntlet.



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