Jump to content

Thanks for visiting BtownBanners.com!  We noticed you have AdBlock enabled.  While ads can be annoying, we utilize them to provide these forums free of charge to you!  Please consider removing your AdBlock for BtownBanners or consider signing up to donate and help BtownBanners stay alive!  Thank you!

Class of '66 Old Fart

Coronavirus and Its Impact

Recommended Posts

58 minutes ago, JSHoosier said:

There would also be people that died from it and never got tested, especially early on, so they're not reflected; or died from one of the spin off issues before we knew what all this is causing and therefore aren’t accurately counted.  Goes both ways.

Official number is the best we've got.

The CDC isn't estimating a death rate anywhere close to 3.2%. 

"The document includes five scenarios. The first four are varying estimates of the disease's severity, from low to high, while the fifth represents the "current best estimate."

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2%-1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%. 

By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%.

According to NPR, the CDC has revised the estimate downward from its estimate in mid-April. Internal versions of the CDC scenario documents acquired by the Center for Public Integrity show that on April 14, the CDC had estimated a 0.33% fatality rate. That was up from a March 31 estimate of 0.16%."

 

Even those who believe the CDC's estimate is too low do not have it close to 3.2%. 

"Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told the "80,000 Hours" podcast in a May 18 episode that he believes the fatality rate is "clearly above 0.2% and probably above 0.4%," likely lying somewhere between 0.2%-1.5%."

"Infectious diseases physician and epidemiologist Dr. Michael Calderwood told USA TODAY that he also believes the rate should be around 0.5%. He pointed to a May 14 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association that looked at the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship outbreak and found the death rate, adjusted for age, was around that number."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Disease has killed 162 thousand in six months and some people wanna quibble about the death rate in an attempt to downplay it. 

One poster said “the math is easy” arguing against the poster who said it has a 99.6% survival rate. I disagreed with that poster, so I responded and explained why. 

Sorry that you don’t think the coronavirus thread is the appropriate thread to discuss the coronavirus death rate. No one’s forcing you to read it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The CDC isn't estimating a death rate anywhere close to 3.2%. 

"The document includes five scenarios. The first four are varying estimates of the disease's severity, from low to high, while the fifth represents the "current best estimate."

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2%-1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%. 

By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%.

According to NPR, the CDC has revised the estimate downward from its estimate in mid-April. Internal versions of the CDC scenario documents acquired by the Center for Public Integrity show that on April 14, the CDC had estimated a 0.33% fatality rate. That was up from a March 31 estimate of 0.16%."

 

Even those who believe the CDC's estimate is too low do not have it close to 3.2%. 

"Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told the "80,000 Hours" podcast in a May 18 episode that he believes the fatality rate is "clearly above 0.2% and probably above 0.4%," likely lying somewhere between 0.2%-1.5%."

"Infectious diseases physician and epidemiologist Dr. Michael Calderwood told USA TODAY that he also believes the rate should be around 0.5%. He pointed to a May 14 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association that looked at the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship outbreak and found the death rate, adjusted for age, was around that number."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

Your basis is estimations from May.  This is from the article you posted:

On Thursday, Johns Hopkins Medical Center's COVID-19 tracking map showed more than 1.8 million confirmed cases and more than 107,000 deaths in the U.S.

That would be 5.9%

I was using numbers updated not even day ago and it comes out to 3.2.

 

Here's this directly from the CDC website https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases, which comes out to 3.28%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

One poster said “the math is easy” arguing against the poster who said it has a 99.6% survival rate. I disagreed with that poster, so I responded and explained why. 

Sorry that you don’t think the coronavirus thread is the appropriate thread to discuss the coronavirus death rate. No one’s forcing you to read it.

Well, going by the numbers directly from the CDC website the math is easy and the original poster was wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, JSHoosier said:

Your basis is estimations from May.  This is from the article you posted:

On Thursday, Johns Hopkins Medical Center's COVID-19 tracking map showed more than 1.8 million confirmed cases and more than 107,000 deaths in the U.S.

That would be 5.9%

I was using numbers updated not even day ago and it comes out to 3.2.

 

Here's this directly from the CDC website https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases, which comes out to 3.28%.

I’m not disputing your numbers. Yes, if you take the number of deaths and divide by the number of cases, you get 3.28%. I do not agree with you that that’s the best way to estimate the death rate. 
 

The fact that the rate went from 5.9% in May to 3.2% now gives credence to my argument, imo. As we expanded our testing capabilities, that death rate dropped. The death rate in May was so high because of so many undetected cases. We are getting better at detecting cases, so the rate has dropped. However, we still aren’t doing nearly enough tests. People on here have complained about testing difficulties. There are still a whole lot of undetected covid cases.

The public health officials take Covid deaths that aren’t detected into consideration when estimating the death rates, and they estimate it to be much lower than 3.2%.
 

10 minutes ago, JSHoosier said:

Well, going by the numbers directly from the CDC website the math is easy and the original poster was wrong.

Sure, the math is easy. But it’s the wrong math to be doing to find the true death rate, imo. Dividing confirmed deaths by confirmed cases doesn’t give an accurate death rate given the testing issues in this country and the up to 50% of infected people who are asymptomatic. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I’m not disputing your numbers. Yes, if you take the number of deaths and divide by the number of cases, you get 3.28%. I do not agree with you that that’s the best way to estimate the death rate. 
 

The fact that the rate went from 5.9% in May to 3.2% now gives credence to my argument, imo. As we expanded our testing capabilities, that death rate dropped. The death rate in May was so high because of so many undetected cases. We are getting better at detecting cases, so the rate has dropped. However, we still aren’t doing nearly enough tests. People on here have complained about testing difficulties. There are still a whole lot of undetected covid cases.

The public health officials take Covid deaths that aren’t detected into consideration when estimating the death rates, and they estimate it to be much lower than 3.2%.
 

Sure, the math is easy. But it’s the wrong math to be doing to find the true death rate, imo.

Those are the best numbers we have though, like it or not.  Those numbers will continually change, but doesn't change that it's the best we have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So if 10% of the tests are false positives, are we cool with 4 1/2 millions positive tests?

BTW, when you hear the garbage type of arguments like “if you die driving but tested positive with covid, they mark you didn as a covid death’......the Venn diagram intersection of the approximate 15,000 people and 160,000 people who have died with positive covid tests in a sample of over 330,000,000 people is about 8 people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

Are you looking at it upside down or something. 

no.  you on drugs?  Read a chart dude.  

Month of July ran between 600k and 800k test, with a high of 929k tests.   Current tests are between 680k and 730k.  Positives peaked at 8.6% in mid July and have come down to 7.4%.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
no.  you on drugs?  Read a chart dude.  
Month of July ran between 600k and 800k test, with a high of 929k tests.   Current tests are between 680k and 730k.  Positives peaked at 8.6% in mid July and have come down to 7.4%.  

Lol. Either Golfman is right on this one or we’ve been reading charts wrong all of our lives. Maybe up is actually down, and down is actually up...


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jbell833 said:


Lol. Either Golfman is right on this one or we’ve been reading charts wrong all of our lives. Maybe up is actually down, and down is actually up...


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

Does the chart not show that we are doing between 600,000 and 800,000 test per day?  Please show me what I am missing.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

no.  you on drugs?  Read a chart dude.  

Month of July ran between 600k and 800k test, with a high of 929k tests.   Current tests are between 680k and 730k.  Positives peaked at 8.6% in mid July and have come down to 7.4%.  

Important to note that on July 16th many hospitals were asked to learn a new tracking system.  

Read through the article as it explains why we are likely seeing underrecording on testing data now.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/hospital-data-reporting-covid-19/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I’m not disputing your numbers. Yes, if you take the number of deaths and divide by the number of cases, you get 3.28%. I do not agree with you that that’s the best way to estimate the death rate. 
 

The fact that the rate went from 5.9% in May to 3.2% now gives credence to my argument, imo. As we expanded our testing capabilities, that death rate dropped. The death rate in May was so high because of so many undetected cases. We are getting better at detecting cases, so the rate has dropped. However, we still aren’t doing nearly enough tests. People on here have complained about testing difficulties. There are still a whole lot of undetected covid cases.

The public health officials take Covid deaths that aren’t detected into consideration when estimating the death rates, and they estimate it to be much lower than 3.2%.
 

Sure, the math is easy. But it’s the wrong math to be doing to find the true death rate, imo. Dividing confirmed deaths by confirmed cases doesn’t give an accurate death rate given the testing issues in this country and the up to 50% of infected people who are asymptomatic. 

You are correct on the death rate analysis.  We can’t know the actual death rate without knowing the actual number of people infected.  And that is not an easy number to estimate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

no.  you on drugs?  Read a chart dude.  

Month of July ran between 600k and 800k test, with a high of 929k tests.   Current tests are between 680k and 730k.  Positives peaked at 8.6% in mid July and have come down to 7.4%.  

Perhaps your confused what all time high means then. If something was higher in the past it’s not currently an all time high. It’s quite simple. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

I would highly encourage you to stop formulating your full opinions off these one-off national news stories.  Your reaction is exactly what they want to happen. They want us to hate each other and hate the ‘other side’.  It’s clearly working on you. Hate leads to motivation which in turn leads to getting people to vote.  
 

Once you know the game, the national headlines become awfully predictable.  
 

 

I would highly encourage you to stop ignoring things that don’t fit your preconceived notions of the universe and be willing to change an opinion. 
 

Attacks are up on Asian Americans 

https://www.adl.org/blog/reports-of-anti-asian-assaults-harassment-and-hate-crimes-rise-as-coronavirus-spreads

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would highly encourage you to stop formulating your full opinions off these one-off national news stories.  Your reaction is exactly what they want to happen. They want us to hate each other and hate the ‘other side’.  It’s clearly working on you. Hate leads to motivation which in turn leads to getting people to vote.  
 
Once you know the game, the national headlines become awfully predictable.  
 
 

We have a winner!!! Thank you!


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×