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Class of '66 Old Fart

Coronavirus and Its Impact

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3 minutes ago, bigrod said:

And yet, we still haven't been told the rate of false positives on this test.

And that is because the test hasn’t been FDA approved - aka it hasn’t been thoroughly vetted.  Essentially we are the FDA study.  There is no way around that in the middle of an epidemic.  Typically these tests go through years of studies before they put a sticker on a label that says 98% accurate or whatever.  If this is a big complaint I honestly don’t know what to say or what you want anyone to do.  Complain to the FDA?  Complain to larger companies such as Roche?  There is no way with any level of certainty someone can say this has a certain level of accuracy.  On either side, but it’s the best we got.  


Same as tracking deaths to me, which I am shocked how people were that caught up on how they track and maintain death count.  I am starting to think people think every person that dies goes through all of these batteries of tests which they just don’t.  Usually there is a morgue in the basement of a healthcare facility if you are lucky.  Some hospitals just have a storage room they place the dead in.  The coroner looks at the chart of a patient within a hospital and signs their death certificate.  If there is a criminal investigation they look further.  Otherwise, they write down what their most recent significant symptom is and move on because they are busy.  There are no numbers in any medical death of any manner that are gospel.  The sooner we get over that mental hurdle we can move on and try to improve.

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On July 16, 2020 at 8:23 PM, Brass Cannon said:

The it’s my time to die philosophy is certainly what it is. But refusal to socially distance and wear a mask would be more akin to “its my time to kill”

Yesterday was Dr. Fauci's time to kill, apparently. image.thumb.jpeg.69608abc64e1b38189a1f7c91424b688.jpeg

Andrew Cuomo's too.(though he got a head start with his nursing home policies) 

image.thumb.jpeg.85379fe9d2347cecd643e3cb2564bcd0.jpeg

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Just now, mdn82 said:

And that is because the test hasn’t been FDA approved - aka it hasn’t been thoroughly vetted.  Essentially we are the FDA study.  There is no way around that in the middle of an epidemic.  Typically these tests go through years of studies before they put a sticker on a label that says 98% accurate or whatever.  If this is a big complaint I honestly don’t know what to say or what you want anyone to do.  Complain to the FDA?  Complain to larger companies such as Roche?  There is no way with any level of certainty someone can say this has a certain level of accuracy.  On either side, but it’s the best we got.  


Same as tracking deaths to me, which I am shocked how people were that caught up on how they track and maintain death count.  I am starting to think people think every person that dies goes through all of these batteries of tests which they just don’t.  Usually there is a morgue in the basement of a healthcare facility if you are lucky.  Some hospitals just have a storage room they place the dead in.  The coroner looks at the chart of a patient within a hospital and signs their death certificate.  If there is a criminal investigation they look further.  Otherwise, they write down what their most recent significant symptom is and move on because they are busy.  There are no numbers in any medical death of any manner that are gospel.  The sooner we get over that mental hurdle we can move on and try to improve.

They want us to stop testing till it’s FDA approved.  Because no testing means no cases. 

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11 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

CDC admits antibody test is not specific for COVID-19.  Just Coronavirus and family.  That’s not great science.  Why no questions about this?  No one cares how many cases this could account for?  

Wayne, you know the answer to this.  You deal with the FDA daily.  You know how long it takes for anything to be FDA approved.  Years ago when digital radiography was new in the dental world (early 2000s) it took close to 10 years for FDA to openly state there wasn’t more scatter radiation with the same tube head.  This specific strain is less than a year old.  There will not be a Covid-19 specific test for years.  I agree with you the numbers are going to be jacked either high or low.  That part is definitely up for interpretation.  We will be lucky if we are within 10% in either direction, but it’s the best we got and I know you know that.  The FDA is a pain in the @$$ and we will be lucky to have this specific strain tested within five years.  Maybe on a trial basis with various tests, but nobody will stick their neck out and say they are sure of any numbers beyond talking heads in the media.  

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1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

And people being irresponsible proves masks are in effective how?  Partisan bias isn’t an answer btw 

I said nothing about partisan bias or political parties.  Watch what these 'leaders' do when they think the cameras are off and you find out what they really think. Fauci, Cuomo, Holcomb. LA's mayor was maskless in the middle of a protest. NYC's mayor was shouting while maskless at a protest. Either they think masks aren't as effective as they tell us commoners that they are, or they do think they're effective but choose not to live by the same rules they're telling us to live by. 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I said nothing about partisan bias or political parties.  Watch what these 'leaders' do when they think the cameras are off and you find out what they really think. Fauci, Cuomo, Holcomb. LA's mayor was maskless in the middle of a protest. NYC's mayor was shouting while maskless at a protest. Either they think masks aren't as effective as they tell us commoners that they are, or they do think they're effective but choose not to live by the same rules they're telling us to live by. 

So what is your opinion on why they would do that? That they are having us wear masks just to mess with us? 

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1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

They want us to stop testing till it’s FDA approved.  Because no testing means no cases. 

I couldn't care less about FDA approval. I do, however, care that they have not bothered to validate the test. Seriously, how can any educated person put any faith in a test that hasn't been validated?

You seriously don't think the possibility exists that asymptomatic positives could truly be false positives? What good is it to use a test that gives you results that you can't quantify?

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15 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Thank you.  That's the point.  We only know what we think we know.  Early on Fauci says masks don't help.  Now the science indicates, maybe they do.  And after this is all over, I'll be the science will say something else.  Those of us who have been around for a while have seen this play out -- this will kill you, wait, no it won't, wait, it's actually beneficial, etc. etc. etc.  

So do we really want to arrest, punish, or fine people who don't wear a mask, social distance, choose to keep their business open based on science that changes daily.  I don't.  And if we do, I certainly want my elected representatives to debate the issue and pass a freaking law.  

A better approach is to educate people about how this thing spreads, tell them what actions are appropriate in certain situations, and let the people figure it out.  You alone, and nobody else, can prevent yourself from catching the virus.

I understand you keep going back to Dr Fauci from 60 minutes.  I have posted the transcripts from that interview.  Please read the whole transcripts.  He openly stated his main concern was for the healthcare providers running out of PPE.  At that time he also stated all Covid strains were not transmitted through asymptomatic people.  They learned that wasn’t the case a couple of months later.  
 

The rest of what you said I 100% agree with.  I feel people need to be educated more, but it’s a two way street.  In your response you are hung up on something he said in February.  In my other response it was because of something said in May.  This is end of July.  We have to trust they are learning more on a regular basis, and hope the people in charge have our best interests in mind.  Believe me, I understand the skepticism, but we are all getting hung up on the things that are so beyond unimportant.  I hope we all move past trying to one up everyone and try to do our part to be a part of the solution.  I am a greedy grumpy bastard.  I want my sports.  If the best possible way to get there is through avoiding being in tight and confined spaces, wearing a mask when I can’t avoid people, and washing my hands regularly I am all for it.  I don’t know how many more seasons of Outdaughtered or any other DIY shows my wife watches I can take.

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2 minutes ago, bigrod said:

I couldn't care less about FDA approval. I do, however, care that they have not bothered to validate the test. Seriously, how can any educated person put any faith in a test that hasn't been validated?

You seriously don't think the possibility exists that asymptomatic positives could truly be false positives? What good is it to use a test that gives you results that you can't quantify?

FDA approval is validation.  That is the standard in America.  

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58 minutes ago, bigrod said:

I'm sorry, but this isn't exactly true. I know they have changed the narrative, but in May, this appeared on the CDC website:

“Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene
and face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these
measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of
laboratory-confirmed influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the
effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning. We
identified several major knowledge gaps requiring further research, most
fundamentally an improved characterization of the modes of person-to-person
transmission.”

They didn't "change the narrative". They reevaluated the data and came to a different conclusion. Additionally, other reputable sources have been saying to wear masks from the very beginning. Hospitals, nursing homes, stores. Everyone not confined to their house was or was supposed to be wearing masks in May. There was a reason why there was a PPE shortage. 

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3 minutes ago, Chips&Dipo said:

They didn't "change the narrative". They reevaluated the data and came to a different conclusion. Additionally, other reputable sources have been saying to wear masks from the very beginning. Hospitals, nursing homes, stores. Everyone not confined to their house was or was supposed to be wearing masks in May. There was a reason why there was a PPE shortage. 

So they overturned 14 randomized, controlled studies with one that "suggests" the opposite? Call it what you want.

Now you are suggesting that it is ok for the experts to lie, but we should believe them because they are experts.

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Just now, bigrod said:

So they overturned 14 randomized, controlled studies with one that "suggests" the opposite? Call it what you want.

I am not calling it anything. The CDC, WHO, and medical professionals are the ones calling it.

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9 minutes ago, Chips&Dipo said:

So what is your opinion on why they would do that? That they are having us wear masks just to mess with us? 

In Andrew Cuomo's case I think he's drunk off the newfound power he has and has no intention of giving it up. New York bars can't serve alcohol without food. But the food has to "substantive" enough. Chicken wings, not substantive. Sandwiches, substantive. I don't know about you, but wings are much more substantive than sandwiches in most cases, and wings are typical bar food. 

I don't know why they're pushing masks so much. If they thought they worked as well as they tell us they do, they wouldn't be going around maskless. Ether that, or they're psychopathic murderers who don't care about anyone around them (or at least that's how anti-maskers are usually described). 

Is there any good explanation for why some of the most avid pro-mask officials take them off when they think the cameras aren't around?

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4 minutes ago, bigrod said:

So they overturned 14 randomized, controlled studies with one that "suggests" the opposite? Call it what you want.

Now you are suggesting that it is ok for the experts to lie, but we should believe them because they are experts.

Maybe their sample size was small when they initially said what they said?  Maybe after gathering millions more data samples that changed their mind?  I don’t think anyone but them has that answer. 

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11 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

In Andrew Cuomo's case I think he's drunk off the newfound power he has and has no intention of giving it up. New York bars can't serve alcohol without food. But the food has to "substantive" enough. Chicken wings, not substantive. Sandwiches, substantive. I don't know about you, but wings are much more substantive than sandwiches in most cases, and wings are typical bar food. 

I don't know why they're pushing masks so much. If they thought they worked as well as they tell us they do, they wouldn't be going around maskless. Ether that, or they're psychopathic murderers who don't care about anyone around them (or at least that's how anti-maskers are usually described). 

Question because I honestly don’t pay attention to Andrew Cuomo as much as others.  Is he in tight and confined spaces where social distancing is not an option when he is maskless?  If so, I definitely agree with you that’s a mixed signal that is wrong.

Edit:  How do you feel about Florida’s ban on alcohol sales?  If more than 50% of their sales is from alcohol the business can not operate. I have seen Andrew Cuomo complaints but not many from states where Republicans are in charge and their rules are actually tougher.

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17 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

FDA approval is validation.  That is the standard in America.  

This test has been around for decades. I know it's not intended to be used for diagnosing anything, but how long does it take?

This doesn't make you wonder at all why they have chosen this test as the standard?

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2 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

In Andrew Cuomo's case I think he's drunk off the newfound power he has and has no intention of giving it up. New York bars can't serve alcohol without food. But the food has to "substantive" enough. Chicken wings, not substantive. Sandwiches, substantive. I don't know about you, but wings are much more substantive than sandwiches in most cases, and wings are typical bar food. 

I don't know why they're pushing masks so much. If they thought they worked as well as they tell us they do, they wouldn't be going around maskless. Ether that, or they're psychopathic murderers who don't care about anyone around them (or at least that's how anti-maskers are usually described). 

Is there any good explanation for why some of the most avid pro-mask officials take them off when they think the cameras aren't around?

I don't have much of a positive opinion on Cuomo on a lot of things, but I believe you are confusing the food law with California. I agree it isn't a good look, but he (and other governors, members of congress, and the president) all have the same message - wear a mask when you can't social distance. 

Regarding the photograph with Fauci - he was with his wife (same house) and a friend and he tested negative a few hours before this. He claims he was drinking water when they took those pictures. I think that scenario is a little different than if you or I are in a grocery store with people we don't know and we haven't been tested.

This is going no where. I am fine with having a discussion on how to solve real problems (like how we should open back up, what do we do about the economy, what does the future look like), but when everyone wants to argue about something so fundamental and their argument is "it doesn't exists" and conspiracy theories, despite all current data and evidence,  then it becomes an argument about semantics and tailor-made gotchas and whataboutisms.

I hope every wears their mask when it is appropriate and do their part to be part of the solution and not part of the problem. If you don't, I hope that you don't get infected and either become one of the unlucky ones that has been negatively effected by this disease or spread it to someone else who is the unlucky one who suffers. The longer this thing is around, the longer we all are going to be effected (some more than others).

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6 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

Question because I honestly don’t pay attention to Andrew Cuomo as much as others.  Is he in tight and confined spaces where social distancing is not an option when he is maskless?  If so, I definitely agree with you that’s a mixed signal that is wrong.

This was from a few days ago in Georgia (sorry for the Twitter commentary, couldnt find the video without it). I don't know how tight this indoor space was, but he's way closer than 6'. I honestly don't know what he was thinking. I'm not a big mask guy and I'm not worried about getting the virus, but I still wouldn't want to be hugging all up on people I don't really know right now.

 

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