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Class of '66 Old Fart

Coronavirus and Its Impact

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Hopefully this copies over well.  I went to the CDC website to see if they had annual US Mortality information available.  They have information you can download that has the cause of death but state.  I went back to 2014 but they may have more available.  I am not sure you can really draw a strong conclusion from this yet and it will probably feed your preconceived positions.  For example, if you are convinced this is really not a big deal you could look at the prior year comparison and conclude that this years increase is not significantly out of line with increases in years like 2017 or 2014.  If you think this outbreak is as reported, or worse you could look at the significant increase in total deaths for 2020 vs this time last year in 2019 and see that we have had 83,540 more deaths this year. 

US Total Deaths through week 25              
    Prior Year Comparison            
2014          1,257,335                
2015          1,345,768                88,433 107%            
2016          1,334,732              (11,036) 99%            
2017          1,388,535                53,803 104%            
2018          1,416,194                27,659 102%            
2019          1,402,683              (13,511) 99%            
2020          1,486,223                83,540 106%            
                   
Source Data:  https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr/data 

The source Data link is for the 2014-2018 data.  The 2019-2020 data is also on the CDC site but I do not have that link handy.

If you download the data note that the cumulative totals from all the causes of death and the total deaths for a given period will not match.  If there were more than one contributing factor to the cause of death, more than one cause may be listed.  I confirmed this with the CDC.  

Initially I just looked at the 2019-2020 data and thought that the 83,000 increase matched up pretty well with the 100+K we have for the covid deaths.  I then pulled the prior year info and noticed that the total US deaths have been steadily increasing since 2014 which surprised me.  I am not sure if this is enough to draw a solid conclusion yet just based on the data and if anyone sees a flaw after pulling the CDC data that I missed let me know.

If you read on your phone i just noticed that the spreadsheet copy and paste is not transferring well so i copied that info as a pic below

image.thumb.png.f2d450935c8716ff229ed0e7f4234204.png

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The problem is you are comparing final death numbers to preliminary nimbers for 2020.  Those monthly totals for the first six months will increase as data comes in to the CDC.  
 

Here is an article on that very topic.

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/mortality-in-the-u-s-noticeably-increased-during-the-first-months-of-2020-compared-to-previous-years/

They cite an example where the week 10 only deaths measured in week 18 were 500 lower than they were listed in week 19.  That’s not new deaths — those were simply ones that hadn’t been recorded and that was just an incredibly small sample.

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The problem is you are comparing final death numbers to preliminary nimbers for 2020.  Those monthly totals for the first six months will increase as data comes in to the CDC.  
 
Here is an article on that very topic.
https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/mortality-in-the-u-s-noticeably-increased-during-the-first-months-of-2020-compared-to-previous-years/

Fair point, thanks for sharing. It makes sense that there would be a lag. Next time I pull the data I will see if I can compare the updates by quarter.


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2 minutes ago, 8bucks said:


Fair point, thanks for sharing. It makes sense that there would be a lag. Next time I pull the data I will see if I can compare the updates by quarter.


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No problem.  The CDC site says that the average lag time varies between 1 and 8 weeks and in the example I gave above, there were over 500 at the minimum that took longer.

FWIW, the CDC doesn’t put out a yearly death total until around June of the following year because of the lag.

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5 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

North Central and Indianapolis Washington have both announced they will be coming back in the fall virtually only.

Portage Township school board voted to go virtual learning for the first nine weeks.  That’s three in about 24 hours, all large districts.  Have been hearing several local schools that are starting to get positive cases among their athletes.  Schools started practice about a week ago.  Know of four schools that have stopped practicing and another that will be doing so probably tomorrow.

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59 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

The Trump administration is apparently taking control of the Coronavirus data from the CDC  So if the CDC happens to make a wrong estimate at some point just remember they aren’t working with all the data 

 

Instead of listening to people that know what they're talking about this administration would rather take those people out of the loop.  Zero chance whatever lackey he has in charge doesn't BS the numbers.

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2 hours ago, JSHoosier said:

Instead of listening to people that know what they're talking about this administration would rather take those people out of the loop.  Zero chance whatever lackey he has in charge doesn't BS the numbers.

Who are the people who know what they are talking about? What have you seen from the CDC that has made their numbers so trustworthy? They can't even differentiate people dying from Covid and people dying with Covid.

They are still using a highly subjective PCR test (that has not even been standardized) that was not intended for diagnosing disease. It is not testing for a virus, but a RNA sequence, and they still have not determined a false positive rate from this test. They haven't determined that because they aren't even sure what the RNA sequence means because they still have not even isolated the virus. These have always been among the first steps in the past. Why are we deviating from everything we have used in the past for this virus? They have simply not done their due diligence. My question is why, and why are we still listening to them? No matter which side of this you fall on, this nicest thing you can say is that it has been a monumental case of mismanagement.

I have heard from many people in my area who have symptoms or contact with people who have positive results that many doctors are not even giving the test anymore because it is so unreliable. And this is how the CDC is deriving it's numbers?

The following is an excerpt from a NYT article from 2007 where the PCR test led the false belief of an epidemic.

It was the start of a bizarre episode at the medical center: the story of the epidemic that wasn’t.

For months, nearly everyone involved thought the medical center had had a huge whooping cough outbreak, with extensive ramifications. Nearly 1,000 health care workers at the hospital in Lebanon, N.H., were given a preliminary test and furloughed from work until their results were in; 142 people, including Dr. Herndon, were told they appeared to have the disease; and thousands were given antibiotics and a vaccine for protection. Hospital beds were taken out of commission, including some in intensive care.

Then, about eight months later, health care workers were dumbfounded to receive an e-mail message from the hospital administration informing them that the whole thing was a false alarm.

Not a single case of whooping cough was confirmed with the definitive test, growing the bacterium, Bordetella pertussis, in the laboratory. Instead, it appears the health care workers probably were afflicted with ordinary respiratory diseases like the common cold.

Now, as they look back on the episode, epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists say the problem was that they placed too much faith in a quick and highly sensitive molecular (PCR) test that led them astray.

At least we are learning from our past mistakes, right?

If you care to read the whole article, here is the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/22/health/22whoop.html

 

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14 minutes ago, bigrod said:

Who are the people who know what they are talking about? What have you seen from the CDC that has made their numbers so trustworthy? They can't even differentiate people dying from Covid and people dying with Covid.

They are still using a highly subjective PCR test (that has not even been standardized) that was not intended for diagnosing disease. It is not testing for a virus, but a RNA sequence, and they still have not determined a false positive rate from this test. They haven't determined that because they aren't even sure what the RNA sequence means because they still have not even isolated the virus. These have always been among the first steps in the past. Why are we deviating from everything we have used in the past for this virus? They have simply not done their due diligence. My question is why, and why are we still listening to them? No matter which side of this you fall on, this nicest thing you can say is that it has been a monumental case of mismanagement.

I have heard from many people in my area who have symptoms or contact with people who have positive results that many doctors are not even giving the test anymore because it is so unreliable. And this is how the CDC is deriving it's numbers?

The following is an excerpt from a NYT article from 2007 where the PCR test led the false belief of an epidemic.

It was the start of a bizarre episode at the medical center: the story of the epidemic that wasn’t.

For months, nearly everyone involved thought the medical center had had a huge whooping cough outbreak, with extensive ramifications. Nearly 1,000 health care workers at the hospital in Lebanon, N.H., were given a preliminary test and furloughed from work until their results were in; 142 people, including Dr. Herndon, were told they appeared to have the disease; and thousands were given antibiotics and a vaccine for protection. Hospital beds were taken out of commission, including some in intensive care.

Then, about eight months later, health care workers were dumbfounded to receive an e-mail message from the hospital administration informing them that the whole thing was a false alarm.

Not a single case of whooping cough was confirmed with the definitive test, growing the bacterium, Bordetella pertussis, in the laboratory. Instead, it appears the health care workers probably were afflicted with ordinary respiratory diseases like the common cold.

Now, as they look back on the episode, epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists say the problem was that they placed too much faith in a quick and highly sensitive molecular (PCR) test that led them astray.

At least we are learning from our past mistakes, right?

If you care to read the whole article, here is the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/22/health/22whoop.html

 

Lol digging deep to try and claim the CDC isn’t the best authority we have on infectious disease.  Better to listen to career liars without advanced degrees. 

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18 minutes ago, bigrod said:

Who are the people who know what they are talking about? What have you seen from the CDC that has made their numbers so trustworthy? They can't even differentiate people dying from Covid and people dying with Covid.

They are still using a highly subjective PCR test (that has not even been standardized) that was not intended for diagnosing disease. It is not testing for a virus, but a RNA sequence, and they still have not determined a false positive rate from this test. They haven't determined that because they aren't even sure what the RNA sequence means because they still have not even isolated the virus. These have always been among the first steps in the past. Why are we deviating from everything we have used in the past for this virus? They have simply not done their due diligence. My question is why, and why are we still listening to them? No matter which side of this you fall on, this nicest thing you can say is that it has been a monumental case of mismanagement.

I have heard from many people in my area who have symptoms or contact with people who have positive results that many doctors are not even giving the test anymore because it is so unreliable. And this is how the CDC is deriving it's numbers?

The following is an excerpt from a NYT article from 2007 where the PCR test led the false belief of an epidemic.

It was the start of a bizarre episode at the medical center: the story of the epidemic that wasn’t.

For months, nearly everyone involved thought the medical center had had a huge whooping cough outbreak, with extensive ramifications. Nearly 1,000 health care workers at the hospital in Lebanon, N.H., were given a preliminary test and furloughed from work until their results were in; 142 people, including Dr. Herndon, were told they appeared to have the disease; and thousands were given antibiotics and a vaccine for protection. Hospital beds were taken out of commission, including some in intensive care.

Then, about eight months later, health care workers were dumbfounded to receive an e-mail message from the hospital administration informing them that the whole thing was a false alarm.

Not a single case of whooping cough was confirmed with the definitive test, growing the bacterium, Bordetella pertussis, in the laboratory. Instead, it appears the health care workers probably were afflicted with ordinary respiratory diseases like the common cold.

Now, as they look back on the episode, epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists say the problem was that they placed too much faith in a quick and highly sensitive molecular (PCR) test that led them astray.

At least we are learning from our past mistakes, right?

If you care to read the whole article, here is the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/22/health/22whoop.html

 

In situations like this, I'm going to take the advice of places like the CDC and WHO.  Are they 100%, no and no one is but considering their area of expertise they'll have a better idea than anyone.  Obviously the more data and information they have the better they can advise; but regardless they are the authorities in this area.  This isn't the time to distance ourselves from organizations like those, and we can't really blame them when we never really followed their advice to begin with.

People need to drop the "dying from vs dying with" argument, it's weak.  COVID isn't just respiratory, it's effecting pretty well every major system and has been seen to cause clotting problems; issues that can be fatal are spinning off from this virus and that's why it's counted the way it is.  That's not new either, something similar is done with the flu; if you have flu and die of pneumonia it counts as a flu death because the flu can cause pneumonia.

For the record, I would've made a similar comment if a Democratic administration did this.  They have no reason to be honest regardless of party, and this specific administration has shown they have no problem lying their tails off.

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Just now, JSHoosier said:

In situations like this, I'm going to take the advice of places like the CDC and WHO and doctors.  Are they 100%, no and no one is but considering their area of expertise they'll have a better idea than anyone.  Obviously the more data and information they have the better they can advise.  This isn't the time to distance ourselves from organizations like those, and we can't really blame them when we never really followed their advice to begin with.

People need to drop the "dying from vs dying with" argument, it's weak.  COVID isn't just respiratory, it's effecting pretty well every major system and has been seen to cause clotting problems; issues that can be fatal are spinning off from this virus and that's why it's counted the way it is.  That's not new either, something similar is done with the flu; if you have flu and die of pneumonia it counts as a flu death because the flu can cause pneumonia.

For the record, I would've made a similar comment if a Democratic administration did this.  They have no reason to be honest regardless of party, and this specific administration has shown they have no problem lying their tails off.

I'm not implying any party affiliation. You may take my comments as argumentative, but I am sincere when I say I don't see anything of value in what the WHO or CDC has said. I am not sure why you would ignore the many times they have been wrong just because they work for a 3 letter agency (that is corporate supported, by the way).

I guess that's the benefit of living in our country (at least for now). We can agree to disagree.

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10 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Lol digging deep to try and claim the CDC isn’t the best authority we have on infectious disease.  Better to listen to career liars without advanced degrees. 

If you apply any method of critical thinking at all, it's not a deep dig. It's all right there on the surface. You just have to open your eyes to see it. And yes, there are definitely career liars involved.

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Numbers go up:  “The CDC is lying!”

Numbers go down in May, quoted by the same CDC:  “See, it’s not that infectious!”

The huge glaring issue with the above example trying to equate the above example from 13 years ago is, you know, 570,000 people globally have died.

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39 minutes ago, bigrod said:

I'm not implying any party affiliation. You may take my comments as argumentative, but I am sincere when I say I don't see anything of value in what the WHO or CDC has said. I am not sure why you would ignore the many times they have been wrong just because they work for a 3 letter agency (that is corporate supported, by the way).

I guess that's the benefit of living in our country (at least for now). We can agree to disagree.

I wasn't trying to say you were applying affiliation, I added that in case others thought I was only saying that because of this administration.  I see no reason for that data to go to someone with zero reason to be honest and full incentive to BS the numbers to make themselves look better when it does then any numbers they provide the public are questionable at best.  The data needs to go to people with expertise in the area, in this specific instance that's the CDC.

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Just now, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Yes, finally someone that wants to talk about these tests.   
 

PCR amplification for virus fragments that can’t even differentiate between coronaviruses. Lovely test, indeed. 
 

It’s no wonder we have so many asymptomatic positives.  

Also CDC admits antibody test also not specific to this specific coronavirus and could be antibodies to other coronaviruses. 
 

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3 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Also CDC admits antibody test also not specific to this specific coronavirus and could be antibodies to other coronaviruses. 
 

That is how it was explained to me when I got an antibody test.  Dr. said is just tests for a "generic" corona virus and then we assume it's Covid because that was the one that was running around at the time you where sick.  

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6 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Yes, finally someone that wants to talk about these tests.   
 

PCR amplification for virus fragments that can’t even differentiate between coronaviruses. Lovely test, indeed. 
 

It’s no wonder we have so many asymptomatic positives.  

That's what I am wondering.  I think after this is all done, we find out a lot about the tests.  

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19 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Yes, finally someone that wants to talk about these tests.   
 

PCR amplification for virus fragments that can’t even differentiate between coronaviruses. Lovely test, indeed. 
 

It’s no wonder we have so many asymptomatic positives.  

Correction:  this is hard to research BTW.  We don’t know the whole genome of the sars cov2 but some of the more reliable PCR tests indicate they can differentiate between COVID 19 corona and other Coronas.  

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