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Class of '66 Old Fart

Coronavirus and Its Impact

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7 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:


My personal opinion hasn’t changed. This is a coronavirus. The common cold (coronavirus) kills a lot of elderly and unhealthy people every year. It’s chalked up as natural causes often. Nobody even bats an eye. The death rate is lessening all the time of Covid19, if it was ever actually high in the first place. You can’t and won’t be able to quarantine and kill the virus. The flattening the curve turned into to something it probably shouldn’t have. We need to learn to live with it. The scare tactics employed about this thing are unreal. People don’t have enough science background to even understand half of this stuff. The public will believe anything they are told. I’ve been this way from the beginning and it isn’t changing.


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Yep. And, we arent controlling this virus either. Farrs Law of Epidemics.

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What is going to be important to see is data to see how long you have the antibodies for covid 19 after you have gotten over the disease.  It’s still pretty early to get know if it is possible (and if so, how likely).  I know that there were very preliminary numbers that thought there might — emphasis might — be the possibility a person could be reinfected.

 

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3 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

The IMHE’s analysis tried applying Farr’s Law to coronavirus and it’s consistently vastly underpredicted the death count.  https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1565

If weve learned anything thus far its that models from April and the actual Covid 19 death count are innacurate. Farrs Law predicts how the virus will act not a prediction of death count.

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4 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

What is going to be important to see is data to see how long you have the antibodies for covid 19 after you have gotten over the disease.  It’s still pretty early to get know if it is possible (and if so, how likely).  I know that there were very preliminary numbers that thought there might — emphasis might — be the possibility a person could be reinfected.

 

Ive tested positive for antibodies and had Covid symptoms in January though you cant 100% prove thats when I had it. Encouraged to donate plasma. Im betting exposure is a positive.

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It is fascinating to take a step back and see how much of an impact this virus is gonna have moving forward in all facets of life. Disturbance brings change. I dont think anything will change as drastically as education. The old school model is dead and technology will take over quickly. Teachers are headed the way of the old telephone operators. Obsolete. Will large tech companies take over education? Covid has absolutely sped up the pace of change.

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23 minutes ago, Alford Bailey said:

It is fascinating to take a step back and see how much of an impact this virus is gonna have moving forward in all facets of life. Disturbance brings change. I dont think anything will change as drastically as education. The old school model is dead and technology will take over quickly. Teachers are headed the way of the old telephone operators. Obsolete. Will large tech companies take over education? Covid has absolutely sped up the pace of change.

As a teacher, I can tell you that the position isn’t obsolete.  All you have to do is check the success rate of virtual schools that were already in place.  What has changed is what teaching will look like.....there is a 100% need for teachers to deliver through technology.  What a teacher does had changed and you will see some technology ignorant teachers not be able to remain in the field. (That’s not an insult but rather a reality)

I’m fortunate in that I am pretty well prepared tech wise (my masters degree is in Instructional Design — has since been reticle Instructionsl Technology.  I teach in a low middle class district that has had the foresight to have been very tech heavy.  Next year we will be teaching live and online lessons simultaneously through a system that will allow interaction for both live and online students.  It’s a necessity next year as we will have a mixture of students live and some wishing to (of not able to due to health reasons s) go online. 

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1 hour ago, Alford Bailey said:

If weve learned anything thus far its that models from April and the actual Covid 19 death count are innacurate. Farrs Law predicts how the virus will act not a prediction of death count.

The point is that people are misusing Farr’s Law to predict the numbers.  Shortly before I posted the previous link, I read someone’s analysis from March 10th that was citing Farr’s Law to show his coronavirus would be over by the summer.  

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1 hour ago, Alford Bailey said:

Ive tested positive for antibodies and had Covid symptoms in January though you cant 100% prove thats when I had it. Encouraged to donate plasma. Im betting exposure is a positive.

Exposure likely is a positive — as long as you don’t die or infect someone that dies from it. :)

Anyway, I agree that there isn’t any doubt that developing the antibodies helps.  The question is in how long you would remain immune — you could remain sterile forever, but you certainly could remain immune for a limited time.  And if covid mutates, the immunity you have today might not matter later.  Still a lot to be learned.

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18 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

The point is that people are misusing Farr’s Law to predict the numbers.  Shortly before I posted the previous link, I read someone’s analysis from March 10th that was citing Farr’s Law to show his coronavirus would be over by the summer.  

That part I can agree with.I thought Covid would be slowing down by now. Truth is we still dont know where we are at with this virus. Some data now suggests it was in China in August 2019.

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28 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

As a teacher, I can tell you that the position isn’t obsolete.  All you have to do is check the success rate of virtual schools that were already in place.  What has changed is what teaching will look like.....there is a 100% need for teachers to deliver through technology.  What a teacher does had changed and you will see some technology ignorant teachers not be able to remain in the field. (That’s not an insult but rather a reality)

I’m fortunate in that I am pretty well prepared tech wise (my masters degree is in Instructional Design — has since been reticle Instructionsl Technology.  I teach in a low middle class district that has had the foresight to have been very tech heavy.  Next year we will be teaching live and online lessons simultaneously through a system that will allow interaction for both live and online students.  It’s a necessity next year as we will have a mixture of students live and some wishing to (of not able to due to health reasons s) go online. 

Many teachers are in denial about the changes coming. What has happened in the past with virtual schools doesnt really matter because that is where the tech will be focused moving forward. Brick and motor is expensive. The business world has realized they can save $11000 per employee working from home and the employee can save $3-$5000 per year. New education options will explode taking money away from public schools.  That said there will be jobs in education and if you embrace the changes coming you can still have a nice career.

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55 minutes ago, Alford Bailey said:

That part I can agree with.I thought Covid would be slowing down by now. Truth is we still dont know where we are at with this virus. Some data now suggests it was in China in August 2019.

I have not seen any data that suggests that.  Could you link it?

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40 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Florida's numbers are insane right now. They've been pumping out 8-9 thousand new cases a day for several days. 

There is no way that there number of deaths is accurate....it’s obviously higher.  Been quite a few articles on that.

My niece lives in a pretty highly effective part of the state.  Her brother (my nephew) lives in LA.  Not good.

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