Coronavirus and Its Impact

[RaceToTheTop 23,556]

1 hour ago, Lebowski said:

I don't know.  I'm having trouble finding the most recent forecasts.  

As of April 17, 2020, the expert consensus is that the US will have reported around 47k COVID-19 deaths by May 1, with a 90% percent chance of having between 32k and 82k.  

Keep in mind depending on what forecast/survey you read will depend on the projection amount.  For example, this survey  forecast deaths will increase to around 47k by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82k by that time.  The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won't peak until June or later.  They also expect that between 8 and 11 states will report more than 1k deaths by May 1.

The thing that worries me is that when the forecasts go down, they are easy to find but when they go up.....not so much.

i did find at one point that a couple of days after the group that was predicting 61,000 by August 30th had upped their estimation to 68,000 (and they were still on the low end of model predictions).  I do have to say that the model predicting 47,000 median will be low as we’re already over 40K and have 10 days left in April.  

[RaceToTheTop 23,556]

4 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

So that's a yes. 

And you show your ignorance when you refuse to take population into account.  You have to do that to compare X & Y.  You must have missed that day in stats class.  

And I assume that you skipped the part on population density.  Italy has 532 people per square mile.  The United States has 94.  The United States is absolutely having Italian rates of fatalities in regions comparable to Italy.

[LIHoosier 24,995]

Let's break up sword fight #5000 with a kind PSA. You'd think on 4/20 some of y'all could mellow out for a few hours.

 

[Old Friend 8,389]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

And I assume that you skipped the part on population density.  Italy has 532 people per square mile.  The United States has 94.  The United States  New Your City is absolutely having Italian rates of fatalities in regions comparable to Italy.

The US by and large is not.  One place is...maybe 2, but the second (Detroit) s a long conversation.

[Golfman25 4,636]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

And I assume that you skipped the part on population density.  Italy has 532 people per square mile.  The United States has 94.  The United States is absolutely having Italian rates of fatalities in regions comparable to Italy.

I started talking about density back on March 24 & 25.  And yes, metropolitan NY city is getting hit worse than Italy, just like northern Italy got his worst than the rest of Italy.  And I'll bet if you go and turn nursing homes and such, which are dense as chit, into populations you'd see some eye popping numbers.  

[HoosierAloha 29,886]

4 hours ago, mamasa said:

I put my zip code as to where I live,and it populated Bartholomew county, but I actually live in Jennings (shhhhhhh, don't tell anyone, I don't admit that often lol). Think I'll put it in the comments tomorrow, as I didn't see a place to contact them

That's interesting... I"m sure the USPS guy has something to do with it!

[RaceToTheTop 23,556]

1 hour ago, Golfman25 said:

I started talking about density back on March 24 & 25.  And yes, metropolitan NY city is getting hit worse than Italy, just like northern Italy got his worst than the rest of Italy.  And I'll bet if you go and turn nursing homes and such, which are dense as chit, into populations you'd see some eye popping numbers.  

You totally missed the point.  Taking population density into account, we have a density that is about 18% of what Italy's is, yet our death rate per density is almost twice that......and our curve is running about ten days behind theirs, which means our death rate compared to density is going to even go up faster still than theirs

 

[RaceToTheTop 23,556]

2 hours ago, Old Friend said:

The US by and large is not.  One place is...maybe 2, but the second (Detroit) s a long conversation.

Take out the Lombardy region of Italy and you can say that the rates across Italy don't match the Italian rate either.  Over half the country's deaths are in the Lombardy region which makes up about 16% of the population.

[Brass Cannon 24,064]

9 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Take out the Lombardy region of Italy and you can say that the rates across Italy don't match the Italian rate either.  Over half the country's deaths are in the Lombardy region which makes up about 16% of the population.

Silly facts. 

[Golfman25 4,636]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

You totally missed the point.  Taking population density into account, we have a density that is about 18% of what Italy's is, yet our death rate per density is almost twice that......and our curve is running about ten days behind theirs, which means our death rate compared to density is going to even go up faster still than theirs

 

That's because you have no point.  You're clinging to the "US is Italy" and it's not.  The US experience is being skewed heavily by the NY City metro area.  If you want to say, NYC is Italy, then fine because that's actually true (they are actually worse).    

[RaceToTheTop 23,556]

42 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

That's because you have no point.  You're clinging to the "US is Italy" and it's not.  The US experience is being skewed heavily by the NY City metro area.  If you want to say, NYC is Italy, then fine because that's actually true (they are actually worse).    

Says the man clinging to "NYC doesn't represent all of the United States, but the Lombardy region represents all of Italy".  

 

[RaceToTheTop 23,556]

Here is a map of the IHME's projections of 'earliest possible dates where there could be some relaxing of social distancing IF there are containment strategies of includes contact tracing, testing, isolation, and limited gatherings.  This is important because this is the model that was being reported when they downgraded the estimated deaths by August 30th to 60,000......a number we likely will pass in mid May.  Note that even the most optimistic model in terms of deaths is realying on restrictions that do not match up with what is being pushed.

[Napleshoosier 9,779]

Heard that oil is on sale. Got any barrels boys?


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[Lebowski 1,839]

11 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

That's because you have no point.  You're clinging to the "US is Italy" and it's not.  The US experience is being skewed heavily by the NY City metro area.  If you want to say, NYC is Italy, then fine because that's actually true (they are actually worse).    

Hide and watch.

[Stuhoo 75,549]

2 hours ago, Napleshoosier said:

Heard that oil is on sale. Got any barrels boys?


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If the Beverly Hillbillies had struck oil today, they'd be living in this:

[Brass Cannon 24,064]

36 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

If the Beverly Hillbillies had struck oil today, they'd be living in this:

Would be Richest family in Kentucky still

[Naturalhoosier 15,353]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

 

If the Beverly Hillbillies had struck oil today, they'd be living in this:

Are you stalking @JaybobHoosier again?!

[TheWatShot 13,335]

Wisconsin decided to hold in-person primary voting a couple weeks ago in spite of other states doing mail-in only. 7 new cases have been reported that were linked to that event. 

[Hovadipo 52,899]

It might have been posted in here, but this thread is a doozy so forgive me if I missed it. Did anyone see the IndyStar article claiming that like 7 people that attended the Lawrence Central sectional have died?

 

Wild times. 

[JSHoosier 19,557]

5 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Wisconsin decided to hold in-person primary voting a couple weeks ago in spite of other states doing mail-in only. 7 new cases have been reported that were linked to that event. 

They should've done mail-in; people shouldn't have to choose between their health and their civic duty.  Milwaukee, a city of about 600K, had only 5 polling stations too, that doesn't help at all.