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Class of '66 Old Fart

Coronavirus and Its Impact

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57 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

You still haven’t caught onto the fact that we are behind Italy.  It would be sad if it weren’t so dangerous. 

So are you going on record that we'll have 120,000 + deaths?  

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2 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

So are you going on record that we'll have 120,000 + deaths?  

We ARE behind Italy.

However, while I suppose we could find a path to screwing this up we are, of course, on a path to have far less than 120,000 deaths.

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17 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

So are you going on record that we'll have 120,000 + deaths?  

Where did you get that?  Viruses don’t spread as a percent of population.  I know you can’t admit that because it would interfere with your moving goal posts.  Virus spread with encounters  Americans don’t interact with 5 times as many people a day because of our population.  But we are losing more people everyday than the worst day in Italy  

But currently on pace for more than 50 thousand this month maybe 60 so possible we attain 120,000.  All depends on if we keep doing this incorrectly or not. 
 

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The news isn’t where you should be going for experts. Dr Phil is a hack at what his degree is in. Much less things that aren’t in his degree. 
 
If somebody is trotting him out as an “expert”. It’s because they couldn’t get somebody qualified to actually say what they wanted. 

Just that you think Dr Phil is a person that someone who has a different opinion on this you do would be someone we consider an expert is laughable. Of course he is no expert and yet that is who you think we listen to?

Personally I like Dr Fauci quite a bit. I then look at the data. Why do so many of you guys who are convinced we are behind Italy not take a deaths/total population figure into account?

There are experts and doctors on both sides of this debate providing good info. At the end of the day we want to minimize deaths right? Shouldn’t that be the primary grade?


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1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

Where did you get that?  Viruses don’t spread as a percent of population.  I know you can’t admit that because it would interfere with your moving goal posts.  Virus spread with encounters  Americans don’t interact with 5 times as many people a day because of our population.  But we are losing more people everyday than the worst day in Italy  

But currently on pace for more than 50 thousand this month so possible we attain 120,000.  All depends on if we keep doing this incorrectly or not. 
 

So that's a yes. 

And you show your ignorance when you refuse to take population into account.  You have to do that to compare X & Y.  You must have missed that day in stats class.  

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15 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

We ARE behind Italy.

However, while I suppose we could find a path to screwing this up we are, of course, on a path to have far less than 120,000 deaths.

For anyone who cared to look beyond the "numbers," Italy had several issues which affected their results.  Just like NY city is dramatically different than most of the rest of the country.  But not even the "experts" are predicting 120,000 deaths these days.  

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Just now, 8bucks said:


Just that you think Dr Phil is a person that someone who has a different opinion on this you do would be someone we consider an expert is laughable. Of course he is no expert and yet that is who you think we listen to?

Personally I like Dr Fauci quite a bit. I then look at the data. Why do so many of you guys who are convinced we are behind Italy not take a deaths/total population figure into account?

There are experts and doctors on both sides of this debate providing good info. At the end of the day we want to minimize deaths right? Shouldn’t that be the primary grade?


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Dr Phil is who started this part of the conversation he was the one talking about Car accidents and such nonsense. 
 

I like Fauci a lot because he actually is an expert. 

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4 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

So that's a yes. 

And you show your ignorance when you refuse to take population into account.  You have to do that to compare X & Y.  You must have missed that day in stats class.  

Lol infectious disease experts don’t think population matters for the rate of disease spread but you sure do know better. lol like I said your ignorance would be hilarious if it wasn’t dangerous 

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19 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

For anyone who cared to look beyond the "numbers," Italy had several issues which affected their results.  Just like NY city is dramatically different than most of the rest of the country.  But not even the "experts" are predicting 120,000 deaths these days.  

Yeah because population size doesn’t matter. 
 

https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034

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This board cracks me up sometimes. We need to fire Archie. No, Archie is the best. Covid 19 isn't any deadlier than the flu. No, Covid 19 is the most deadly virus ever. We need to be recruiting this player. No, that player isn't ready for the Big 10. Fred Glass ruined IU sports. No, Fred's hands are tied by McRobbie. It's all McRobbie's fault. I can't wait for Dolson to take over. No, Dolson is Glass made over. Etc...
Some of you haven't realized in your years on here that people aren't going to agree with you on everything and to just give it a rest.


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27 minutes ago, Geometry Hoosier said:

This board cracks me up sometimes. We need to fire Archie. No, Archie is the best. Covid 19 isn't any deadlier than the flu. No, Covid 19 is the most deadly virus ever. We need to be recruiting this player. No, that player isn't ready for the Big 10. Fred Glass ruined IU sports. No, Fred's hands are tied by McRobbie. It's all McRobbie's fault. I can't wait for Dolson to take over. No, Dolson is Glass made over. Etc...
Some of you haven't realized in your years on here that people aren't going to agree with you on everything and to just give it a rest.


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If everyone on here would just unconditionally adopt my unsolicited opinions as the absolute truth, a lot of this arguing would stop immediately!

:)

 

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1 hour ago, 8bucks said:


Just that you think Dr Phil is a person that someone who has a different opinion on this you do would be someone we consider an expert is laughable. Of course he is no expert and yet that is who you think we listen to?

Personally I like Dr Fauci quite a bit. I then look at the data. Why do so many of you guys who are convinced we are behind Italy not take a deaths/total population figure into account?

There are experts and doctors on both sides of this debate providing good info. At the end of the day we want to minimize deaths right? Shouldn’t that be the primary grade?


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I'm not sure I'm following you.  What's the debate?  And how is this a 'we vs us' thing?  In my experience science typically doesn't debate.  Those that try to understand the science use it to help make decisions and have fact based conversation.  And when folks don't agree with it and try to frame their own conversation typically science comes back to wreck havoc on those folk.  As it has throughout mankind.

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Yeah because population size doesn’t matter. 
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034

I have followed JBMs charting as well but what I argue regarding population is that if we are behind Italy then we should expect to have a higher death rate amongst our population than they will. That would result in 128,000 US deaths right?

23,660 deaths/60.36 million Italians = same death rate for US if 128,000 deaths/328 million Americans

I get that the rate of infection here may be higher using data available but that becomes a challenge to compare as some countries test more and thus identify more infections. The death rate should be the metric for comparison in the end.

None of the models are projecting US deaths over 100k right? So if that is the case then are we really behind Italy?



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16 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

I'm not sure I'm following you.  What's the debate?  And how is this a 'we vs us' thing?  In my experience science typically doesn't debate.  Those that try to understand the science use it to help make decisions and have fact based conversation.  And when folks don't agree with it and try to frame their own conversation typically science comes back to wreck havoc on those folk.  As it has throughout mankind.

I am sure you're referring to the science that told us "masks don't help" before it told us "well maybe they do."  This thing is fluid because it's new.   

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1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

I am sure you're referring to the science that told us "masks don't help" before it told us "well maybe they do."  This thing is fluid because it's new.   

That's cherry picking.  This virus is still being studied.  Experts will continue to inform us when new information isn't on par to what they understand the science to be.  Science 101 dude.

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21 minutes ago, 8bucks said:


I have followed JBMs charting as well but what I argue regarding population is that if we are behind Italy then we should expect to have a higher death rate amongst our population than they will. That would result in 128,000 US deaths right?

23,660 deaths/60.36 million Italians = same death rate for US if 128,000 deaths/328 million Americans

I get that the rate of infection here may be higher using data available but that becomes a challenge to compare as some countries test more and thus identify more infections. The death rate should be the metric for comparison in the end.

None of the models are projecting US deaths over 100k right? So if that is the case then are we really behind Italy?



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I don't know.  I'm having trouble finding the most recent forecasts.  

As of April 17, 2020, the expert consensus is that the US will have reported around 47k COVID-19 deaths by May 1, with a 90% percent chance of having between 32k and 82k.  

Keep in mind depending on what forecast/survey you read will depend on the projection amount.  For example, this survey  forecast deaths will increase to around 47k by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82k by that time.  The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won't peak until June or later.  They also expect that between 8 and 11 states will report more than 1k deaths by May 1.

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3 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

Thank you!  (I get zero from it but I appreciate anyone willing to help out for the greater good)  Although, you're not in Monroe County so it won't help our numbers to more accurately track Monroe County it will help your county, the state, the country, and the world.

I read they're developing an online application for this too.  I'm sure that would help certain users to reduce time in filling the information out.  5 minutes isn't bad but it's not 3 minutes!  haha

I put my zip code as to where I live,and it populated Bartholomew county, but I actually live in Jennings (shhhhhhh, don't tell anyone, I don't admit that often lol). Think I'll put it in the comments tomorrow, as I didn't see a place to contact them

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I don't know.  I'm having trouble finding the most recent forecasts.  
As of April 17, 2020, the expert consensus is that the US will have reported around 47k COVID-19 deaths by May 1, with a 90% percent chance of having between 32k and 82k.  
Keep in mind depending on what forecast/survey you read will depend on the projection amount.  For example, this survey  forecast deaths will increase to around 47k by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82k by that time.  The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won't peak until June or later.  They also expect that between 8 and 11 states will report more than 1k deaths by May 1.

I have seen similar numbers which would show that we are not behind Italy.


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