Coronavirus and Its Impact

[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

25 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Yes both estimates assumed full social distancing until the end of May. The IHME model has been revised twice in the past week, once on Sunday and once on Wednesday. Before the revisions, I believe it was predicting over 100k deaths. Even Fauci came out today and said they expect deaths to end up below 100k deaths.

Even if it is the 'most optimistic' model, it is still overestimating things like hospital beds and ICU beds after two revisions. Outside of the NYC metro area, hospitals are perfectly fine and are not overflowing. California, Texas, and Florida, the 3 most populated states in the US with 89 million people, have a combined 942 deaths. When I checked earlier today, 33 of the 50 states have fewer than 100 deaths. What's happening in the tristate area is tragic, but we shouldn't be treating the rest of the country the same way we're treating that area. It doesn't make sense to completely shut down a state like West Virginia with 4 deaths or a state like Utah with 13.

Factually, Utah isn't completely shut down.  The stay at home is for a seven county area only.  In terms of 33 of the 50 states having fewer than 100 deaths...what do you think that number would be if none of those states had shut down?

[Hoosierfan2017 19,887]

5 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Don't know if you are linking me with 'doomers', but if you are,  I certainly don't fall in that category.  I'm on the end of examining all of the models.  I am going to say the talk of 'opening the country' up when even the most optimistic model say we haven't reached our peak is not something we should be doing yet.

In terms of cases/death counts, this is the best account I've seen.  Every source is documented and linked.  The # of new cases per day has been getting more consistent over the past week -- around 30,000 cases per week.  Still hard to tell how accurate this is to the full picture as the number of cases isn't consistent with past testing -- some places not testing because they are short so they assume positives if the treatment isn't different, other places have gained access to tests that didn't have them before so which would increase positive tests.

The death count hasn't really leveled off yet;  the leveling of the death count/day is going to occur after the # of cases per day have peaked.  The last seven days the death counts have been:

April 2:  974

April 3:  1,046

April 4:  1,330

April 5:  1,165

April 6:  1,255

April 7:  1,971

April 8:  1,940

So we have seen that in a week's time, the death count per day has doubled, which is why I think the suggestion that now is the time to talk about opening the country up is premature.  We have doubled the death count per day in a week's time WITH a lot of restrictions on businesses/schools/travel/etc......and in the last couple of days we have seen a significant jump.  The next week IMO is going to tell quite a bit.

BTW.....Baltimore popping up as a hot spot.  Maryland's confirmed cases grew by 25% in the last day.

 

I don't know if you're a doomer or not, but you weren't who I had in mind when I said it fwiw. The deaths are a lagging number since it can take a while to die from the virus. Hospitalizations and ICU patients have been decreasing recently in New York. Now is the time to start talking about opening up the economy, imo, because we need to figure out how we're going to do it before we actually do. Start the conversation now so that way in a few weeks, maybe May 1st, we can start opening things up. It won't be a 0-100 type of thing, and we will still have to do social distancing and avoid mass gatherings. I'm not sure the economy can wait much longer than May 1st. It's barely holding on now.

[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

56 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Yay ‘Merica!!!

The universal adherence to social distancing has been anecdotally really good around where I live.

 

I can tell you that anecdotally, my social distancing has been great.  But that's because I just think people are assholes.  Has nothing to do with the coronavirus.

Have to say that I've met three of the people I am referring to above during the stay at home order.....there is a walk I go down regularly when I take my daily walk and two times I've what I will refer to as "Calf Working Karens" who felt it was there right to say '**** it' to social distancing as they power walked into older couples and then brushed past them.  The other was a guy today -- probably in his late sixties -- who rode his bike down the path and keep ringing his bell to get everyone to notice his "Viruses are 100% Fake News" emblazened t-shirt.

[Hoosierfan2017 19,887]

6 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Factually, Utah isn't completely shut down.  The stay at home is for a seven county area only.  In terms of 33 of the 50 states having fewer than 100 deaths...what do you think that number would be if none of those states had shut down?

Don't know. The 7 states without shut down orders, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, have a combined 80 deaths. If full-on, shelter in place shutdowns are necessary to prevent mass death, shouldn't those states be seeing way more deaths than they currently are?

[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I don't know if you're a doomer or not, but you weren't who I had in mind when I said it fwiw. The deaths are a lagging number since it can take a while to die from the virus. Hospitalizations and ICU patients have been decreasing recently in New York. Now is the time to start talking about opening up the economy, imo, because we need to figure out how we're going to do it before we actually do. Start the conversation now so that way in a few weeks, maybe May 1st, we can start opening things up. It won't be a 0-100 type of thing, and we will still have to do social distancing and avoid mass gatherings. I'm not sure the economy can wait much longer than May 1st. It's barely holding on now.

Hey, me and my wife haven't even gotten our corona $2400 yet, don't worry about our economy.

For real, though, we've already decided that we are going to find some way to donate the $2400 to help out those in more need than us.  We are both in education -- with both our positions being relatively safe.  Strongly considering putting the $2400 toward a scholarship to someone based on financial need brought on by the coronavirus situation.

I don't have a problem with setting non-hard goals.  But I do think that is something to discuss after we are certain the peak has past.  I would really like to lessen the chance of a second spike.

[Hoosierfan2017 19,887]

2 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Hey, me and my wife haven't even gotten our corona $2400 yet, don't worry about our economy.

For real, though, we've already decided that we are going to find some way to donate the $2400 to help out those in more need than us.  We are both in education -- with both our positions being relatively safe.  Strongly considering putting the $2400 toward a scholarship to someone based on financial need brought on by the coronavirus situation.

I don't have a problem with setting non-hard goals.  But I do think that is something to discuss after we are certain the peak has past.  I would really like to lessen the chance of a second spike.

I can give you my account number of you're looking for a place to deposit some of your Trump bucks, lol. In all seriousness though that's great that you and your wife are doing that. I hope that more people decide to do something similar.

Imo, our current strategy is increasing the chances of a second spike because we're not going to have any herd immunity. Healthy/young people aren't being exposed to the virus because we're all staying away from each other. I get that we don't want young people spreading it to at-risk groups, but if we can figure out a way to keep those groups safe while it spreads amongst the rest of us, that could probably go a long ways toward avoiding a second spike.

[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Don't know. The 7 states without shut down orders, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, have a combined 80 deaths. If full-on, shelter in place shutdowns are necessary to prevent mass death, shouldn't those states be seeing way more deaths than they currently are?

Not exactly places that you'd expect much domestic travel to and from.....if you were talking about places you expect that the spread would be small, they would be it.  And as you said, those places aren't shut down.  And as you did say, the deaths lag behind the increase in confirmed cases.  It will be interested to see where their totals are in a week.

[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

13 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I can give you my account number of you're looking for a place to deposit some of your Trump bucks, lol. In all seriousness though that's great that you and your wife are doing that. I hope that more people decide to do something similar.

Imo, our current strategy is increasing the chances of a second spike because we're not going to have any herd immunity. Healthy/young people aren't being exposed to the virus because we're all staying away from each other. I get that we don't want young people spreading it to at-risk groups, but if we can figure out a way to keep those groups safe while it spreads amongst the rest of us, that could probably go a long ways toward avoiding a second spike.

Herd immunity would look much different, unfortunately, with this virus, IMO, because of how differently corona effects individuals and the inability for a lot of people to know that they have it when they are asymptomatic.

[Old Friend 8,389]

Just more evidence for this drug that doesn't work and kills people.  It might come from a source you don't like or believe,  and hasn't been proven for this virus yet, and therefore it;s wrong to use it even though there is global evidence suggesting its efficacy.

You have to read a little, but...

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/04/03/it-was-worst-weeks-my-life-woman-recovers-coronavirus/

[jk34 1,105]

A forum that has strict policies on politics,  and that's all this thread has turned into! SMH

[Stuhoo 75,564]

6 minutes ago, jk34 said:

A forum that has strict policies on politics,  and that's all this thread has turned into! SMH

True.

For the good of the good, let’s try to pull it back more than a bit going forward.

 

[Class of '66 Old Fart 80,957]

8 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

The universal adherence to social distancing has been anecdotally really good around where I live.

 

And I think it was in Indiana for the most part until the past 3 days of beautiful weather.  While our city/county parks are closed with playground equipment cordoned off and swings removed, there were a number of large gatherings playing catch etc.  Because of the influx of people to Brown County, its county commissioners have asked Gov. Holcomb to totally close the park.  Weather forecast for the next 10 days is pretty crappy for April which is probably a good thing for social distancing; probably not-so-good for our farmers.

[Brass Cannon 24,064]

6 hours ago, Old Friend said:

Just more evidence for this drug that doesn't work and kills people.  It might come from a source you don't like or believe,  and hasn't been proven for this virus yet, and therefore it;s wrong to use it even though there is global evidence suggesting its efficacy.

You have to read a little, but...

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/04/03/it-was-worst-weeks-my-life-woman-recovers-coronavirus/

A sample size of one.  Wow how compelling.  

[Chips&Dipo 1,448]

8 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

On March 12, the Ohio Health Department director said that they have over 100,000 cases in their state. It's now April 8, and Ohio has had 193 total deaths. Their original model predicted 9,600 new cases per day at Ohio's peak, with strict social distancing. Today they revised it to 1,800 new cases per day at their peak, 6x fewer new cases per day. My money is on that also being an overestimate. At a certain point we have to start questioning what these 'experts' say because they have consistently gotten it wrong and their mistakes have led to 10 million newly unemployed people in the past two weeks, with an estimated 5.5 million more coming in tomorrow's weekly report.

You read that as an overestimate, I read that as showing that the "experts" were right and physical distancing is working and slowing the spread of infection.

[Hoosierfan2017 19,887]

20 minutes ago, Andowen1990IU said:

You read that as an overestimate, I read that as showing that the "experts" were right and physical distancing is working and slowing the spread of infection.

The models all took social distancing into account, so that doesn't explain why they were all so off. Their model was predicting 62,000 new cases per day at their peak without social distancing.

[Chips&Dipo 1,448]

1 minute ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The models all took social distancing into account, so that doesn't explain why they were all so off. Their model was predicting 62,000 new cases per day at their peak without social distancing.

So either people are doing a better job at social distancing than the model predicted, or the social distancing is working better than anticipated. Again, it depends on your mindset when you look at the numbers.

I see good numbers and I think "man I am glad we took this serious cause it looks like it is working" not "what do those stupid experts know". When the whole point of social distancing is to lessen the cases, and we as a society commit to social distance and the cases decrease, that tells me it is working. 

[HoosierAloha 29,887]

Don't know. The 7 states without shut down orders, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, have a combined 80 deaths. If full-on, shelter in place shutdowns are necessary to prevent mass death, shouldn't those states be seeing way more deaths than they currently are?

Have you been to North Dakota? They pretty much practice social distancing 365. You can go hours driving while only seeing a house or two


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[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The models all took social distancing into account, so that doesn't explain why they were all so off. Their model was predicting 62,000 new cases per day at their peak without social distancing.

I guess I don't get your point here.  The model of 62,000 new cases per day at their peak without social distancing isn't one that can be quantified as accurate or not because we do have social distancing.

[Golfman25 4,662]

1 hour ago, Brass Cannon said:

A sample size of one.  Wow how compelling.  

Dude, you used one report of a dumbass taking aquarium cleaner (not the medication) to prove it killed people.  Your credibility is shot.    

[RaceToTheTop 23,602]

2 hours ago, jk34 said:

A forum that has strict policies on politics,  and that's all this thread has turned into! SMH

This is the thing:  why is talking about the ability or inability of a drug to combat an illness considered a political discussion?  Its ability or inability to combat the disease has zero to do with any politician says.  I don't get why discussing the scientific evidence/lack of scientific evidence of a drug used for coronavirus would be off limits in a discussion on coronavirus.  The closest it got to being political was when Old Friend intimated that people were saying that it worked because they were in 'The Left' and would just disagree with anything Trump said.....and since that has been brought up, I think he has backed off from those kind of statements.