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mamasa

IU Football Off-Season

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Just now, Magnanimous said:

(Assuming the season gets played for the purposes of this post)

We need to steal the PSU game, otherwise we may very well start the season 1-5. 

In all likelihood, this thing gets cancelled 3-4 weeks in if it even begins, but this a very front loaded schedule for us.

I also think the state of Indiana got screwed on this. Everyone else is getting their primary rivalry game in by mid-October, with the understanding it’s better to move up (OSU/UM, Wisconsin/Minny, etc.) than further risk that game not being played. The Bucket game is completely expendable in this scenario to the Big Ten. 

 

I think the expectations need to be set as to what constitutes necessary cancellations. 

There will be positive tests, canceling every time there is a positive test means they shouldn't even try. Now removing those players and staff from the team when they do test positive and still moving forward is what has to happen if the season is to be played. Can't freak out if there are 5 people on a team who tested positive because everyone knows that WILL happen as it already has. 

Not saying I agree with playing the season, just stating that if we are going to try and play, games will need to be played despite positive tests. 

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I think ending 5-5 is the best I can see happening here. That being with the history of not being able to finish games against Penn st and michigan

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5 minutes ago, maharkn said:

I think ending 5-5 is the best I can see happening here. That being with the history of not being able to finish games against Penn st and michigan

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Yeah I see 4-5 wins. Hoping for 5 but not holding my breath. 

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11 minutes ago, maharkn said:

I think ending 5-5 is the best I can see happening here. That being with the history of not being able to finish games against Penn st and michigan

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I agree. However, if this season even plays out there are so many variables about sitting players who test positive, draft prospects sitting out, games being cancelled, etc. Micah Parsons on Penn State just announced he’s sitting out this year. It may level the playing field just a bit...

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Saw that IU's fall camp starts tomorrow. Will be at least interesting to follow fall camp even with the uncertainty of the season. Ready for some actual IU news outside of COVID. 

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I got really excited until I read the details of the medical protocols. I'm still excited for the season to be back on. But a 21 day sit out for any player that tests positive, and a team can't play for 7 days if the team has a 5% positivity rate or higher. A quick count of our roster shows about 120 players. If 6 players test positive, we can't play that week. With no bye week built in, it seems highly unlikely a full 8 games will be completed. If a main goal was to get a team in the CFP, they may be crossing fingers that a 6-0 OSU, with no conference championship game, somehow gets in over several 9-1 teams. Can't see that happening. 

More than likely, as things progress, the rules evolve to something like the MLB where a player has to quarantine for a much shorter period and return after 2 consecutive negative tests 24 hours apart. Not sure what to think about the team positivity rate. 

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19 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

I got really excited until I read the details of the medical protocols. I'm still excited for the season to be back on. But a 21 day sit out for any player that tests positive, and a team can't play for 7 days if the team has a 5% positivity rate or higher. A quick count of our roster shows about 120 players. If 6 players test positive, we can't play that week. With no bye week built in, it seems highly unlikely a full 8 games will be completed. If a main goal was to get a team in the CFP, they may be crossing fingers that a 6-0 OSU, with no conference championship game, somehow gets in over several 9-1 teams. Can't see that happening. 

More than likely, as things progress, the rules evolve to something like the MLB where a player has to quarantine for a much shorter period and return after 2 consecutive negative tests 24 hours apart. Not sure what to think about the team positivity rate. 

I believe the 5% is a rolling average for the week. Since the players are tested everyday it would have to be a positive rate of more than 5% for a whole 7 day average. That's quite a bit different than one day. Again this is how I have interpreted the protocol. 

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20 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

I believe the 5% is a rolling average for the week. Since the players are tested everyday it would have to be a positive rate of more than 5% for a whole 7 day average. That's quite a bit different than one day. Again this is how I have interpreted the protocol. 

Hmm. I haven't seen the rolling average quoted anywhere, but I could be wrong. If a team has 0 positive tests on day 1, then steadily increases to 9.5% of the team tests positive on day 7, that rolling average could fall below 5%. But, no other day really matters besides the one that 9.5% of your players test positive. On the flip side, you could start with 20% of your players testing positive and immediately shut it down. If 7 days later, you are at 2% positivity, your rolling average could still be well above 5%. But why does that matter anymore if you currently only have 2% of players testing positive. I'm not sure the rolling average would be applicable here. But maybe I'm missing something. 

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13 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Hmm. I haven't seen the rolling average quoted anywhere, but I could be wrong. If a team has 0 positive tests on day 1, then steadily increases to 9.5% of the team tests positive on day 7, that rolling average could fall below 5%. But, no other day really matters besides the one that 9.5% of your players test positive. On the flip side, you could start with 20% of your players testing positive and immediately shut it down. If 7 days later, you are at 2% positivity, your rolling average could still be well above 5%. But why does that matter anymore if you currently only have 2% of players testing positive. I'm not sure the rolling average would be applicable here. But maybe I'm missing something. 

here, straight from the BIG. 

https://bigten.org/news/2020/9/16/the-big-ten-conference-adopts-stringent-medical-protocols-football-season-to-resume-october-23-24-2020.aspx

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4 hours ago, IUc2016 said:

Ah, well how about that. Unfortunately, I only had time to get my info today in bits and pieces from talking heads on the internet. Shame on me :-). I was also thinking the rolling average would apply as each day's average divided by 7. Sounds like its the total positives in that 7 day period vs. total tests in that 7 day period. Makes more sense. 

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Ah, well how about that. Unfortunately, I only had time to get my info today in bits and pieces from talking heads on the internet. Shame on me :-). I was also thinking the rolling average would apply as each day's average divided by 7. Sounds like its the total positives in that 7 day period vs. total tests in that 7 day period. Makes more sense. 

You’re good man. But yeah I had your concerns when I first read the 5% positive rate as well


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25 minutes ago, cthomas said:

The wild card will be who is eligible to play each week. Looks to me like a 3 or 4 win season.

I’m more optimistic than most years, and I actually feel good about that optimism unlike every other “optimistic” IU football year. I see us going at least 4-4 with a decent chance of 5-3. I truly believe we will beat one of Michigan/Penn State and could realistically beat both, but it’s IU football so who really knows.

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