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Str8Hoosiers

Prediction League (Game 19 - Michigan State 1/23/20)

By Str8Hoosiers, in Indiana Men's Basketball

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BottomLine    685

BottomLine
Posted

I hate games like this. I'm 72-years-old and I've been a dyed in the wool Hoosier fan since I was about 9.  Think of Jimmy Rayl, Walt Bellemy and Archie Dees my heroes growing up.  I will NEVER root against Indiana and NEVER miss a game if I can do anything to help it.  On the other hand this is a contest and you don't win something like this picking with your heart and not your head.  That is why I'm going with the Spartans and not the Hoosiers.  

With its best game, Indiana can win this.  I hope the fans get into the game early and loud because we are going to need that to pull off an upset.  And it would be an upset. Michigan State is the best team in the conference.  I know the Big Ten is 7-41 on the road in conference.  However, Michigan State has only been on the road in conference twice.  They are 6-1 but 5 of those wins were at home.  On the road they beat Northwestern and were crushed by Purdue.

While Archie, at times, can't decide who to play, Michigan State has a solid lineup.  Winston, Tillman, Brown and Henry seldom come off the floor.  That isn't to say that the bench is a bunch of stiffs.  It just says that this is a team that has some chemistry.  We are still working on that.

As to the numbers, IU comes up short across the board.  We are 1-3 against the top 25.  MSU is 2-1.  Over the last 10 games MSU is 9-1 and we are 6-4.  Against common opponents MSU is 3-0 and IU is 1-2.  Against teams with similar records MSU is 7-3 and IU is 2-4.   On average they outscore us on offense 78.3 to 75.1.  They also top us on defense 63.6 to 66.2.  We haven't been ranked once this year and Michigan state has been a top 10 dweller all year.

Still despite all of that this could be a very close game.  Who knows a 50/50 ball here and there, a good night rebounding the ball, Michigan foul trouble, a few fewer IU turnovers, or a few extra 3's fall and everything could turn out in IU's favor.  Those are all big IF's.  Vegas has this game at 141.5 o/u.  MSU is favored by 3 so that makes the implied final score 72-69.  I'm thinking that defense might be more important in this game than offense.  MSU is averaging 71 in conference the that includes a 47 point stinker in West Lafayette.  I see them scoring about 74 here and IU struggling to get to 70.  That's it. But I hope it is the other way around.

IU 70

MSU 74

bigrod and HoosierAloha reacted to this

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LIHoosier    25,981

LIHoosier
Posted
23 hours ago, hoosierdogg said:

Hoosiers in a close one and a buzzer beater like this...

...or Hoosiers lose by 18!!!  

I would've rushed the court but I must've been a seat from the cameraman cuz that was my view too.

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