Bracketology and Team Resumes

[johnsoniu 6,064]

1 minute ago, TheWatShot said:

DeCourcy had us missing the tourney back in January. 

So did half this board

[TheWatShot 13,335]

2 minutes ago, johnsoniu said:

So did half this board

True, but I'll never forget how two years ago, he had Purdue and OSU in the Final Four, with Purdue beating Baylor in the Sweet 16. They both lost in the first round. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,194]

So if the Purdue-Penn State game runs over, does that push the selection show back?

[johnsoniu 6,064]

28 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

True, but I'll never forget how two years ago, he had Purdue and OSU in the Final Four, with Purdue beating Baylor in the Sweet 16. They both lost in the first round. 

Right on. I didn’t mean to gloss over your point that Decourcy is a hack.

[Uspshoosier 44,223]

11 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

So if the Purdue-Penn State game runs over, does that push the selection show back?

Yes 

[RaceToTheTop 23,603]

Bracketville put their list up -- breaks it down to both seed and number on the S curve.  IU a 4 seed, 14th on the S curve.

[Scotty R 1,897]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yes 

It would have to really go to a few OT to have to move it back. 

Show you things has changed when it comes to how big selection Show has become. I was watching IU vs OSU game in 1981 on YouTube. That was the last game  of the year and was for the big ten championship. It was on NBC which had the selection for the tournament that same day. The game went to OT so the announcers on the gamevstaryed to release who had made the tournament during the game. The selection of the tournament back then was just a blip on the radar back then.

[lillurk 3,668]

Maybe I should save this rant for Monday or pre-First Four Tuesday, but I’m feeling it now so here goes: the committee is spoken about with such reverence, but they act lazily far too often.

Of course this year that likely won’t materially impact IU, so I don’t mean this in a hugely self-serving way. But at this point it’s clear they don’t just disregard Sunday games, they discount conference tourneys too much more broadly. 2022 Texas A&M is the poster child.

Now, of course, conference tourneys are a small percentage of the whole season. So? The margins between teams are small! One game can move things. To ignore them is malpractice just as it would be to ignore games that happen any other weekend.

I also don’t buy the argument that somehow they don’t have time. There are only two games that run right up to the televised selection. Using this year as an example, the four teams playing in those games will all be in: Memphis, Houston, PSU, and Purdue. However, you could very easily create contingencies for all possible outcomes and just send CBS the bracket that matched the reality. E.g. Houston is going to be a 1; does a loss change their standing vis a vis the other 1s? PU a 1 or 2 — does the outcome change which? And then seeding implications for PSU and Memphis…what else are they doing if not gaming out those possibilities?

Finally, if they really wanted to eliminate human bias, they could do that a couple of ways instead of putting in some undeserving power conference team. No interest in doing so, it seems. But selection via a SOR or WAB-style resume metric, and then let teams draft region/opponent themselves, would be both fairer and more interesting (credit John Gasaway on this idea).

[RaceToTheTop 23,603]

Now 83 brackets that have been updated today on the bracketmatrix.  Average seed for IU -- 4.24 (#15 overall).

3 seed:  2 (2.5%)

4 seed:  62  (75%)

5 seed:  17  (20%)

6 seed:  2 (2.5%)

[Uspshoosier 44,223]

Seth Davis talks about the process.   Very good thread by him laying stuff out.   Most will be repetitive for those who follow me on this thread throughout the year.   He messed up on some of the stuff but not  enough to worry about.    

[tomallenfan1 581]

Ideally, we will be matched up against a team that does not want to advance. Fingers crossed.

[RaceToTheTop 23,603]

2 minutes ago, tomallenfan1 said:

Ideally, we will be matched up against a team that does not want to advance. Fingers crossed.

If it's the NCAA tournament, that sounds like Purdue.  Not sure they would move them down to an 12 or 13 for us, though.

[Uspshoosier 44,223]

If it was up to me I would almost have Wisky in the last 4 in the field instead of the options I have in right now.  Probably not going to happen but would be interesting if they did 

[RaceToTheTop 23,603]

Going by today's bracketmatrix, all seeds through the 10 seed are on 100% of the brackets.  At the 11 seed (there will be six 11 seeds since this will include play-ins), Mississippi State is also 100% in and Providence is 98% in.  Assuming they are both in, that leaves 4 spots left.

Based on the matrices percentage of times that the teams are listed in brackets, the chance of each team being in the tournament for the final spots are:

Rutgers 94%

North Carolina State:  90%

Arizona State 89%

Pittsburgh 61%

Nevada 31%

Oklahoma State 28%

Vanderbilt 5%

North Carolina 1%

Wisconsin 1%

Convential wisdom would seem to say if outliers are removed, Rutgers, NC State, and Arizona State are all and the only question is whether the final team is Pittsburgh, Nevada, or Oklahoma State.  Think it's one of the least suspenseful years in terms of bubble teams, partially because of the lack of bid steals.

[iubb 2,386]

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[Chris007 42,106]

USPS inspired me to use my whiteboard in my basement. I’m not quitting my day job yet but here’s my bracket 

 

[Hovadipo 52,951]

4 minutes ago, iubb said:

 

 

 

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My guess would be a contingency article. 

[TheWatShot 13,335]

Reminds me of the year the bracket got leaked before the selection show. Our region was so stacked, I thought it had to be fake. 

[FortWayneHoosier 5,830]

 

[iubb 2,386]

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