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Uspshoosier

Bracketology and Team Resumes

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IU actually dropped three spots in NET ranking after the road win at Minnesota.  Now at 23.

Two teams moving ahead of them might have made sense as they had better wins yesterday -- Xavier at U Conn and Creighton beat the snot out of St. John's.  Not sure how Boise State moved ahead of IU as they were idle.

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My WAR ratings have tons of Big Ten teams around the cut line -- but all but Ohio State on the good side of the cut line right now.

Last four byes:  Rutgers, Utah State, Maryland and Arkansas.

Lasy four in:  Wisconsin, Iowa, Creighton, Penn State.

First four out:  West Virginia, Wake Forest, Utah, Texas A&M

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3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

My WAR ratings have tons of Big Ten teams around the cut line -- but all but Ohio State on the good side of the cut line right now.

Last four byes:  Rutgers, Utah State, Maryland and Arkansas.

Lasy four in:  Wisconsin, Iowa, Creighton, Penn State.

First four out:  West Virginia, Wake Forest, Utah, Texas A&M

Crazy how far Arkansas has fallen in 3 weeks

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My Thursday morning WAR ratings (my system does not like IU as much as others).  Records against D1 only:

  1. Alabama 18-2 +6.77
  2. Purdue 19-1 +6.58
  3. Kansas 16-4 +5.25
  4. Kansas St 17-3 +4.65
  5. UCLA 17-3 +4.44
  6. Houston 19-2 +4.42
  7. Texas 17-3 +4.38
  8. Xavier 17-4 +4.32
  9. Arizona 17-3 +4.26
  10. Iowa St 15-4 +4.15
  11. Virginia 15-3 +3.96
  12. Tennessee 17-3 +3.85
  13. Marquette 16-5 +3.81
  14. Gonzaga 16-4 +3.80
  15. Baylor 15-5 +3.67
  16. TCU 16-4 +3.30
  17. Florida Atlantic 16-1 +3.00
  18. San Diego St 15-4 +2.97
  19. U Conn 16-6 +2.91
  20. Miami (F) 16-4 +2.91
  21. Charleston 19-1 +2.86
  22. Auburn 16-4 +2.84
  23. Memphis 15-5 +2.37
  24. Missouri 15-5 +2.32
  25. Nevada 15-5 +2.21
  26. North Carolina 14-6 +2.16
  27. St. Mary's 16-5 +2.11
  28. Providence 16-5 +2.11
  29. New Mexico 15-3 +1.96
  30. North Carolina St 16-5 +1.94
  31. Boise State 14-5 +1.86
  32. Clemson 17-4 +1.85
  33. Michigan St 13-7 +1.77
  34. Illinois 14-6 +1.67
  35. Indiana 14-6 +1.62
  36. Northwestern 14-5 +1.60
  37. Kentucky 14-6 +1.59
  38. Duke 14-6 +1.50
  39. USC 14-6 +1.50
  40. Arizona State 15-5 +1.47
  41. Rutgers 14-6 +1.31
  42. Utah State 15-5 +1.30
  43. Maryland 13-7 +1.24
  44. Arkansas 14-6 +1.13
  45. Wisconsin 12-7 +1.05
  46. Creighton 12-8 +0.77
  47. Iowa 12-7 +0.62
  48. North Texas 14-5 +0.56
  49. Penn State 13-7 +0.46
  50. Kent St 13-4 +0.42
  51. Oral Roberst 13-4 +0.38
  52. West Virginia 12-8 +0.21
  53. Wake Forest 14-7 +0.15
  54. Utah 14-5 +0.13
  55. Texas A&M 14-6 +0.08
  56. Seton Hall 11-9 +0.03
  57. Oklahoms State 11-9 +0.02

Edit:  corrections made to West Virginia's  record;  North Texas's WAR refigured and it dropped them from 41 to 48.  Seton Hall discovered to also have a positive WAR and were added.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

IU actually dropped three spots in NET ranking after the road win at Minnesota.  Now at 23.

Two teams moving ahead of them might have made sense as they had better wins yesterday -- Xavier at U Conn and Creighton beat the snot out of St. John's.  Not sure how Boise State moved ahead of IU as they were idle.

A lackluster game against a bad opponent means IU probably hurt themselves a bit in the NET. So it's not so much that Boise State moved ahead of IU as IU dropped below Boise State. The end result is the same but that's just another way to look at it.

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2 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

IU actually dropped three spots in NET ranking after the road win at Minnesota.  Now at 23.

Two teams moving ahead of them might have made sense as they had better wins yesterday -- Xavier at U Conn and Creighton beat the snot out of St. John's.  Not sure how Boise State moved ahead of IU as they were idle.

As numbers guy you should know numbers never sit still.    I’m guessing teams that Boise St has played already had games last night which changed their NET numbers which impacted Boise St NET 

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3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

As numbers guy you should know numbers never sit still.    I’m guessing teams that Boise St has played already had games last night which changed their NET numbers which impacted Boise St NET 

I know there are a lot of moving parts.  Typically though I think you don’t see a team win a game and drop.  It happens but not often, especially 20 games in.

I think it happens more in NET rankings because of quad movement of teams.  

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3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I know there are a lot of moving parts.  Typically though I think you don’t see a team win a game and drop.  It happens but not often, especially 20 games in.

I think it happens more in NET rankings because of quad movement of teams.  

Any predictive metric runs the risk of that happening.   Even though IU beat Minny they failed to meet the efficiency number that were predicted for them.   I think IU dropped a little in KenPom after winning this game as well.  

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2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Any predictive metric runs the risk of that happening.   Even though IU beat Minny they failed to meet the efficiency number that were predicted for them.   I think IU dropped a little in KenPom after winning this game as well.  

Yep.  NET is a combination of predictive and reflective, isn’t it?

FWIW, my WAR calculations are only reflective.

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5 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Yep.  NET is a combination of predictive and reflective, isn’t it?

FWIW, my WAR calculations are only reflective.

NET is reflective and predictive but there is more weight on predictive.

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@Uspshoosier thoughts?  Mentally, the one team I think my ratings are definitely off on is North Texas, which I think are out and not really even in the first four out -- but my WAR loves their number of road/neutral wins.

Last four byes:

  • Creighton
  • Rutgers
  • Maryland
  • Kentucky

Last four in

  • Arkansas
  • West Virginia
  • North Texas
  • Oklahoma

First four out

  • Wisconsin
  • Seton Hall
  • Arizona St
  • Penn St

Next four out

  • Texas A&M
  • Mississippi St
  • Iowa
  • Oklahoma St

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20 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

@Uspshoosier thoughts?  Mentally, the one team I think my ratings are definitely off on is North Texas, which I think are out and not really even in the first four out -- but my WAR loves their number of road/neutral wins.

Last four byes:

  • Creighton
  • Rutgers
  • Maryland
  • Kentucky

Last four in

  • Arkansas
  • West Virginia
  • North Texas
  • Oklahoma

First four out

  • Wisconsin
  • Seton Hall
  • Arizona St
  • Penn St

Next four out

  • Texas A&M
  • Mississippi St
  • Iowa
  • Oklahoma St

Iowa is probably around 8 or 9 seed for me    Your system doesn’t like them at all.   A&M  is probably higher and closer to the  field.  I would need to dive into it after yesterdays results but Iowa being that far out and North Texas being in would be the 2 that stick out to me.   

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2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Whenever they play Liberty that will be must see tv.    Top 2 teams in the ASun in my opinion 

They only play once this year.  Feb 16th  That stinks unbalanced conference schedules stink in smaller conferences as well 

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39 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Iowa is probably around 8 or 9 seed for me    Your system doesn’t like them at all.   A&M  is probably higher and closer to the  field.  I would need to dive into it after yesterdays results but Iowa being that far out and North Texas being in would be the 2 that stick out to me.   

Yep.  I'm going to keep tweaking in and see how it plays out.  I did make one small tweak this year that helped a little.

Ultimately the 12-8 record and a SOS that I have rated as good but not great ends up putting them pretty low.  If they had won just one more game to put them at 13-7, I would have them in Arkansas's spot and on the right side of the cut and above the play in games.  The 12-8 record could be a little dangerous for them because a 10-10 record in the regular season would put them 18-13 overall;  if they finished 9-11 in conference they'd be at 17-14 overall and would need to win two games in the BTT in order to get to the magic 4 over .500.

 

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I reconciled my ratings (redid value of wins/losses based on opponent's KenPom -- I redo these once about every two weeks) and have added in today's games.  Only one game on the schedule left that would effect ratings (Memphis going to Tulsa) but it wouldn't make a difference on who I have in the field.

Reorganization and adding in today's games:

Last four byes

  • Maryland 14-7 +1.27
  • Creighton 13-8 +1.11
  • Rutgers 14-7 +1.08
  • Kentucky 14-7 +0.91

Last four in (play in):

  • Wisconsin 12-8 +0.78
  • Arkansas 14-7 +0.76
  • Penn State 14-7 +0.74
  • West Virginia 13-8 +0.73

First four out:

  • Arizona State 15-7 +0.73
  • North Texas 16-5 +0.63
  • Iowa 13-8 +0.59
  • Oklahoma 12-9 +0.54

Next four out:

  • Seton Hall 12-9 +0.41
  • Texas A&M 15-6 +0.21
  • Mississippi State 13-8 +0.20
  • Pittsburgh 15-7 +0.17

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Jerry Palm bracketology, Monday, Jan 30th:

Big Ten team seeds and opening opponent:

  • Purdue, 1 seed.   Open against winner of SE Missouri St/Farleigh Dickinson, then play winner of USC/Clemson
  • Illinois, 5 seed:  Open against Oral Roberts;  win and play winner of Northwestern/Boise State
  • Indiana, 5 seed:  play Charleston, win and play winner of Xavier/Liberty
  • Rutgers 7 seed:  play Nevada, win and play winner of Houston/Siena
  • Michigan St 7 seed:  play Creighton, win and play winner of Kansas/Colgate.
  • Northwestern:  8 seed, play Boise State, win and play winner of Illinois/Oral Roberts
  • Maryland, 10 seed, play Duke, win and play winner of Tennessee/UNC Asheville
  • Iowa, 10 seed, play San Diego State, win and play winner of Texas/Youngstown St.

Wisconsin and Penn State in the first four out of the tournament.

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10 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Jerry Palm bracketology, Monday, Jan 30th:

Big Ten team seeds and opening opponent:

  • Purdue, 1 seed.   Open against winner of SE Missouri St/Farleigh Dickinson, then play winner of USC/Clemson
  • Illinois, 5 seed:  Open against Oral Roberts;  win and play winner of Northwestern/Boise State
  • Indiana, 5 seed:  play Charleston, win and play winner of Xavier/Liberty
  • Rutgers 7 seed:  play Nevada, win and play winner of Houston/Siena
  • Michigan St 7 seed:  play Creighton, win and play winner of Kansas/Colgate.
  • Northwestern:  8 seed, play Boise State, win and play winner of Illinois/Oral Roberts
  • Maryland, 10 seed, play Duke, win and play winner of Tennessee/UNC Asheville
  • Iowa, 10 seed, play San Diego State, win and play winner of Texas/Youngstown St.

Wisconsin and Penn State in the first four out of the tournament.

Palm has UK playing Arkansas in the First Four?

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